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Old 09-25-2016, 02:49 PM   #16226
Dream Crusher
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip
Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.
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Old 09-25-2016, 03:15 PM   #16227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.


Link?


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Old 09-25-2016, 03:28 PM   #16228
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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People did try to warn me and I generally disregarded it because I didn't understand what they were talking about. I'm pretty sure whatever they were trying to warn me about though was considerably less severe then the actual variance I exhibited this year. 2015 I beat 1/2 for 35/hr, 2/5 for 68/hr and had a 67% session win rate. 2016 I'm running 25/hr at 1/2 and 2/5 I haven't even bothered to retabulate because it's been -70/hr for months on end with a sub-50% win rate across all limits. I'm up about 30k this year but the negative variance has forced me to completely alter my game plan. I won't even consider playing 2/5 full-time until my BR is >50k and I still think that is too low. Parx 2/5 is probably the toughest game in town and the variance at this 200 BB game cap is absurd.


My learning crucible occurred during a long narsty run (eg lost w pocket kk 15 of 17 times in a row--losses ranging from 30--900 (the latter at 1/3, and a mistake by me)). It wildly changed the way I play and think about edge.

When 55/45 goes against you past a standard deviation of average, you can start to look for places with larger edges (fold equity, bluff catching, getting the money in when you're like 80+% good) while minimizing plusEV but higher variance spots (hint AK pre and betting draws without enough FE in your opponents).
Also causes me to focus on as much non-card edge as possible (reverse tells, live reads, etc.). While it may not get you back to crushing, it can get your w/r closer to even.

Best day of poker of my life I was down 50 bucks at 2/5-- got felted AI twice for over 400 total bigs between em and money went in WAY good. Yay Var.


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Old 09-25-2016, 04:38 PM   #16229
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.
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Link?
See Angrist's post right above yall's.
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Old 09-25-2016, 05:01 PM   #16230
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Link?


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My reply was deleted. Apparently tipping discussion doesn't belong in the tipping containment thread either.
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Old 09-25-2016, 05:37 PM   #16231
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My reply to one of your posts was deleted, but I did receive a reasonable PM explaining why. I consider it an acceptable reason. The reason also makes it sound like it would be appropriate if he didn't PM you about it. I started a thread about what was in my reply, but I also told Rapini he could delete it.
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Old 09-25-2016, 05:42 PM   #16232
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I didn't realize that was in another subforum. Of course I didn't receive a pm (for either deletion).
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Old 09-25-2016, 06:14 PM   #16233
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I calculate my win rate without promos, tips, or breaks included/excluded. I want it to look as bad as possible to give me extra motivation. After all your win rate doesn't mean anything to anybody besides yourself. All that really counts is total money won. FTR I have had a very solid win rate at every poker variant I have ever played from live to online or SnG/MTT/Cash. I just got back into poker after 1.5 yrs away. I'm starting at 1/2 and $20+/hr seems pretty easily atainable.
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Old 09-25-2016, 06:17 PM   #16234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I usually add money I took out of my stack to buy booze back into my final count.

I usually have 2 drinks while playing.
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Old 09-25-2016, 07:48 PM   #16235
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I don't count my expenses against my win rate because they are so minimal. Public transport to the casino is effectively free because of my weekly usage. Food, I eat a big meal before I go and I bring my own snacks and I'd still eat if I was at home anyway. I drink their free water and in the last 300 hours, the only money I spent while at the tables was $1.50 for a coffee - it was 8am and I'd arrived with a hangover, I figured it was necessary.
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Old 09-26-2016, 11:22 AM   #16236
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't count my expenses against my win rate because they are so minimal. Public transport to the casino is effectively free because of my weekly usage. Food, I eat a big meal before I go and I bring my own snacks and I'd still eat if I was at home anyway. I drink their free water and in the last 300 hours, the only money I spent while at the tables was $1.50 for a coffee - it was 8am and I'd arrived with a hangover, I figured it was necessary.
Dang, bro. You ride public transit with poker money in your pocket? You are braver than me. Any opsec tips?

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Old 09-26-2016, 04:30 PM   #16237
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Dang, bro. You ride public transit with poker money in your pocket? You are braver than me. Any opsec tips?
I live in Australia, the trains are pretty safe. I conceal the poker money and when I cash out, I walk around and check I'm not being followed. I try to take enough basic precautions that I'm not a target of opportunity.

Nothing I do would stop a competent criminal but they're not going to make plans to take off some random low stakes pleb for a few hundo. There are much better targets than me in the casino, like some of the old Chinese degens with a roll of 100s that would choke a mule.
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Old 09-26-2016, 04:39 PM   #16238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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and when I cash out, I walk around and check I'm not being followed...
Oh yeah, I always forget that some people leave the casino with more money than they came with...
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Old 09-26-2016, 05:43 PM   #16239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For win rate calcs , I always went by game, without major non poker promos. And then rando crap I'd add in to my total poker p@l.

So my 1/3 hourly is x. Up to z for 5:10 hourly. My PLO was a negative number. :O


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Old 09-26-2016, 07:35 PM   #16240
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Oh yeah, I always forget that some people leave the casino with more money than they came with...
LOL

Half the time I'm just cashing out the remnants of the stake I brought with me...kind of paranoid if I take the chips with me, that's the day the casino decides on an emergency re-issue.
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Old 09-26-2016, 11:51 PM   #16241
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If I ever use my stack to pay for a massage/food, I re-add it to my total, and I do not include promos in my WR.

The food/massages/drinks do not correlate to your WR, they are a luxury. As for promos, I don't include them because I like to think of your WR as being what you can win, and being able to replicate that. If a place is having some sick promo that accounts for 20% of your total WR, you can't really replicate that sort of success at a different casino -- it's not giving you a true representation of your ability.

As for tips, I don't keep track and I do not subtract that from my WR, as if you were to do that, than you might at well be taking out the rake as well to find your "true WR", but we all pay rake and we all pay tips, so it's pointless to figure out what you'd be making in a world where poker was free.
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Old 09-27-2016, 12:06 AM   #16242
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I prefer understating my WR. I pay for food, booze, massages etc. with chips on the table and just do a simple net buy in/cash out at the end of each session. Haven't hit a high hand in 1000+ hours of poker this year so that's not a concern.
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Old 09-27-2016, 11:36 AM   #16243
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sooooooooooooooo... instead of trying to read through the thread and make some kind of faq, it'd probably be better to just combine posts and do it as the topics come up again. Feel free to edit this, add info, take out stuff whatever.


Common question: Should I include tips/food paid for with chips/bad beat jackpots etc. when calculating my winrate?

Answer: It's typically assumed that when someone posts a winrate that tips ARE included, and most likely small purchases too. It's safe to assume that no one is eating a 60 dollar meal every session, paying for it with chips and still winning at $85/ hour. Winning a bad beat jackpot, or other forms of rakeback such as high hands etc. are usually not included.

However, when calculating your winrate/hourly for yourself you are free to do whatever you want. If you want to take meticulous notes on how you are doing in your player pool then it's best to not calculate tips and to pay for meals out of pocket. Some players even calculate the rake they pay. That way you know exactly what your winrate is, how much the rake is taking out, and you can compare your winrate to other winrates in different locations.

If you are more concerned with how much you make/spend on trips to the casino then include any expenses that you feel are necessary and include a bad beat jackpot or a high hand etc, but be sure to factor that in if you decide to compare your stats with someone else's. Ultimately your winrate is being recorded for you so feel free to record it in whatever way makes sense for you.
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Old 09-28-2016, 12:50 PM   #16244
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How can std dev for winrate per hour or per 100 hands be calculated when the data (winrate per session) we collect is not done each hour or every 100 hands?

We collect data per session which has varying length (hr or # of hands). How can we calculate std dev in units that we don't measure the data in?

We CAN calculate std dev per session, but I'm not sure what that would tell us since sessions vary in length...

Am I wrong in this?
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Old 09-28-2016, 01:09 PM   #16245
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There was a conversion posted to get standard deviation in hours from varying length sessions but I can't find it with the search. It does change the resulting number a bit and is important if you want accurate statistics.

The general consensus is that we should just use a fixed hands/hr conversion factor. There's some debate about the exact number and if it should be 25 h/hr, or 35 h/hr, but somewhere around 30 is pretty standard. Yes it'll vary from table to table and day to day, but it's not something we can track.
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Old 09-28-2016, 01:29 PM   #16246
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by SamJack View Post
How can std dev for winrate per hour or per 100 hands be calculated when the data (winrate per session) we collect is not done each hour or every 100 hands?

We collect data per session which has varying length (hr or # of hands). How can we calculate std dev in units that we don't measure the data in?

We CAN calculate std dev per session, but I'm not sure what that would tell us since sessions vary in length...

Am I wrong in this?
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4
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Old 10-01-2016, 01:56 PM   #16247
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Good BR management. I've always followed a 50
buyin rule as well. Playing with less is possible, but its never optimal to play if you are scared money. I see alot of people advising players to use really small BRs like 10-20 buyins and I always shake my head. Sure you can play with a roll that small but you will never be playing optimally, extracting thin value and running huge bluffs in good spots, because you will probably be scared money.
I've seen you talk about your 50 buyin rule a few times before. I have meant to ask you to clarify what you mean, but never got around to it. Are you talking about the more common way that's mentioned and suggesting $50k is sufficient for most 5/10nl games? Or are you saying if you buyin for max at a 5/10 $3k cap game, you would need $150k br? It seems like in another post you made on the subject, you mean the latter...
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Old 10-01-2016, 02:07 PM   #16248
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I've seen you talk about your 50 buyin rule a few times before. I have meant to ask you to clarify what you mean, but never got around to it. Are you talking about the more common way that's mentioned and suggesting $50k is sufficient for most 5/10nl games? Or are you saying if you buyin for max at a 5/10 $3k cap game, you would need $150k br? It seems like in another post you made on the subject, you mean the latter...
The latter. I try to think of each "bullet" as no greater than 1/50 of my roll at any point. Most players who know me will rarely if ever call me a nit based on the way I play, but I can tell you right now that I am a huge bankroll nit.
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Old 10-01-2016, 10:43 PM   #16249
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50 Buyin rule for BRM is way too conservative...and it is super way too conservative if we are talking about 300 big blinds per buyin.

I guess it isn't too conservative if your normal game is frequently straddled.

BRM should be focused on number of big blinds instead of number of buyins.
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Old 10-01-2016, 11:36 PM   #16250
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50 Buyin rule for BRM is way too conservative...and it is super way too conservative if we are talking about 300 big blinds per buyin.

I guess it isn't too conservative if your normal game is frequently straddled.

BRM should be focused on number of big blinds instead of number of buyins.
Sure if you play a mostly ABC game then 50 buyins may be conservative, but I would argue even beginners at low stakes are subject to making errors/mistakes/spew and having a large roll will buffer them.
At higher stakes, you need to try to play more balanced, bluffing more, and you will be up against opponents (even fish) who are capable of making moves, which will subject you to much higher variance.

50 buyins allows you to comfortably play your game, making big bluffs when neccessary/optimal without being scared money. Are you really going to be comfortable firing a 3k+ river check raise bluff at 10-20 (say 5k buyin) when your bankroll is only 50k?
Just my 2 cents.

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 10-01-2016 at 11:56 PM.
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