Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

09-23-2016 , 05:13 PM
I use poker income
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-23-2016 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny
So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
Do they finance this with an extra $1 drop?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-23-2016 , 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrybe
Do they finance this with an extra $1 drop?
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
How much is the total drop and what are the stakes
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
If you're using your win rate to try and accurately guess future results, including freerolls will skew your data.

I look at it this way, can I depend on winning the freerolls often enough that it's regular income? If yes include it, if not then you're padding you're win rate and contributing to delusions
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 11:57 AM
I view promos as a fair part of win rate since you are paying rake on almost all of them and they are part of your playing EV.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 01:05 PM
Promos are random acts of rakeback
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
Promos are random acts of rakeback
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flowrider
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
It's safer to under estimate rather than overestimate your win rate , So I disagree with you in that there is something wrong with breaking it both ways. Additionally , if you included it in your win rate, your win rate would only be accurate for that casino and only when those promos are running, right?

Last edited by VolumeKing; 09-24-2016 at 05:16 PM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-24-2016 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
How much is the total drop and what are the stakes
10% $5 cap, 1/2



Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
If you're using your win rate to try and accurately guess future results, including freerolls will skew your data.

I look at it this way, can I depend on winning the freerolls often enough that it's regular income? If yes include it, if not then you're padding you're win rate and contributing to delusions
Well each seat to the monthly freeroll is worth around $100, and the yearly is $1000, and id say I have a good edge over the player pool so maybe a little more for me. So far I have won one for 1k, min cashed one for 100, and didnt cash the other.



Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
It's safer to under estimate rather than overestimate your win rate , So I disagree with you in that there is something wrong with breaking it both ways. Additionally , if you included it in your win rate, your win rate would only be accurate for that casino and only when those promos are running, right?
Yea this is the only drawback I can see to including it, but I only have this one casino near me and probably won't play anywhere else this year.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
Promos are random acts of rakeback
Quote:
Originally Posted by flowrider
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
There has been so much talk about this throughout the history of this thread that it's become ridiculous. It's a matter of personal choice.

If you want to see if your skill can get you to the point where your skill is winning you $20+ per hour, so that you can claim that you are crushing the game; or, be able to compare your WR with others, you don't add the promos in.

If you don't care about that & want to know what your WR is with your promo money, you add it in. Just don't say here: "With my promo money, I'm winning X per hour" because it doesn't mean anything to anyone but you.

I earn/win a lot of promo money. Over 3k so far this year. I've played not 1.5k hours because of the break I took, so that would increase my WR $2+ pr hr if I was adding it in.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
PASTED FROM PG&C FROM ~ 1 MONTH AGO

1000 hours


I have now officially gone over 1000 hours of 1/2 NLH. I have a smattering of other games and stakes, but this has been my main game for several years. Why haven't I branched out?

1. Bank roll. I was a bank roll nit for a while. Then I had to spend it on school. Then, I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to start over. Then, once I had run it up with the help of a stake, I had to spend it all again on a wedding and honeymoon. Now, I'm rebuilding again. I've already stated that once I reach my min bank roll goal, I'll send the next few months putting money into our house down payment project. That being said, I'm never going broke again for nonpoker reasons. The wife is aware of my rules for this money. I took her out to breakfast this morning with some winnings just to let her remember that there are benefits for her to not try to pressure me into using it.

2. Location. I have several 1/2 games within 15 minutes of me. Most of the time that is necessary due to my family restraints. If 1/2 is the only game you can get to, you play it.

3. I haven't played a lot of other games because I have stayed away from PLO. Sometimes it's been due to bank roll and avoiding swings. Mostly though, it's because my edge isn't nearly as big. PLO doesn't lend itself to massive edges anyway, but I also have very little experience playing it. I'm just now figuring out how to beat it. If I want to follow the trend of the community (and the whales), I'll need to break into this game in a serious way.

I have goals to address these things which I will share in a bit.



Now for the moment you've all been waiting for: The Results!







If I hadn't lost that $1800 AA<66 pot last week I would have cracked $25/hr. Oh well. That just goes to show you how small a sample size 1000 hrs actually is. One big pot can shave 1-2bb/hr in either direction.

I'm obviously ecstatic with these results. Most of my hours were in short sessions, a surprising number were on week days, with most coming later at night during peak hours.

This 1000 hrs took about 4 years to compile. I'd say that's a testament to how busy I was with school and family including several long lay offs. If I could Id play all the time. Interestingly, my win rate has climbed considerably the longer I've played. The sample size isn't big enough to make any true judgments, but it suggests that I've improved at a much faster rate than my player pool.

My first 500 hrs looked like this:






Second 500 hrs were much better:



This can be construed as big improvement as well as running better than anyone has a right to. I hope it's some of both and not just the latter.



Obviously these results made me feel liek this:

Spoiler:
How much does your profit/winrate go down when you include tips to the dealer and cocktail waitresses..
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 01:57 PM
The base $1 tip to the dealer should be thought of as part of the rake imo

Might be worth tracking bigger ones if you think you have a leak with that
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 01:59 PM
Why would you assume that tips weren't included? That would be quite a strange way of tracking. You'd essentially have to add the tips back into the amount you cash out.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash
The base $1 tip to the dealer should be thought of as part of the rake imo
I hope you aren't tipping a dollar for every pot. That would be a pretty significant leak at the 1/2 or 1/3 level. The base should be $0.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I hope you aren't tipping a dollar for every pot. That would be a pretty significant leak at the 1/2 or 1/3 level. The base should be $0.


I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:15 PM
Warning: tipping discussions often lead to flame wars and/or derails. While it is not a forbidden topic, it could be very easy to fall afoul of thread rules. Post on this subject with care.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:18 PM
Regarding the promo wins: I have the same discussion with new grad students all the time. They're always trying to record only the "required" (or minimum) data from their experiments or simulations. "Oh, we don't need that channel". And I always have to tell them that it's better to record more data than you think you need and never use it, than it is to throw stuff out early.


How do people track tips anyway? ****ing around punching a button on your phone every time you drag a pot? Seems like a pain to track something that we really aren't going to change anyway (as most of us have a simple tipping method, $1/hand > $10, etc ... but that's another thread).


Once again I realized just how weird an average win-rate session is. Played 9.5 hours yesterday and left up a single BI of $200. Felt like treading water for a long time, even though I knew I was playing pretty well without seeing any "big spots". But that still ended up being $21+/hr.

I'll just leave this here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...ng+containment

Last edited by Angrist; 09-25-2016 at 02:20 PM. Reason: Link
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Can't tip anything when you're too broke to play though (cause you spent all your money on tipping, get it?)
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip
Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.


Link?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
People did try to warn me and I generally disregarded it because I didn't understand what they were talking about. I'm pretty sure whatever they were trying to warn me about though was considerably less severe then the actual variance I exhibited this year. 2015 I beat 1/2 for 35/hr, 2/5 for 68/hr and had a 67% session win rate. 2016 I'm running 25/hr at 1/2 and 2/5 I haven't even bothered to retabulate because it's been -70/hr for months on end with a sub-50% win rate across all limits. I'm up about 30k this year but the negative variance has forced me to completely alter my game plan. I won't even consider playing 2/5 full-time until my BR is >50k and I still think that is too low. Parx 2/5 is probably the toughest game in town and the variance at this 200 BB game cap is absurd.


My learning crucible occurred during a long narsty run (eg lost w pocket kk 15 of 17 times in a row--losses ranging from 30--900 (the latter at 1/3, and a mistake by me)). It wildly changed the way I play and think about edge.

When 55/45 goes against you past a standard deviation of average, you can start to look for places with larger edges (fold equity, bluff catching, getting the money in when you're like 80+% good) while minimizing plusEV but higher variance spots (hint AK pre and betting draws without enough FE in your opponents).
Also causes me to focus on as much non-card edge as possible (reverse tells, live reads, etc.). While it may not get you back to crushing, it can get your w/r closer to even.

Best day of poker of my life I was down 50 bucks at 2/5-- got felted AI twice for over 400 total bigs between em and money went in WAY good. Yay Var.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Posted a reply in the tipping containment thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
Link?
See Angrist's post right above yall's.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
Link?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
My reply was deleted. Apparently tipping discussion doesn't belong in the tipping containment thread either.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-25-2016 , 05:37 PM
My reply to one of your posts was deleted, but I did receive a reasonable PM explaining why. I consider it an acceptable reason. The reason also makes it sound like it would be appropriate if he didn't PM you about it. I started a thread about what was in my reply, but I also told Rapini he could delete it.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
m