As soon as the old thread reopens I will merge all of these posts into it.

I'll just note that the mepthybridge rule is still in effect. If you piss a mod off enough with your trolling, you can and will be instantly perma-banned even after one offense.

All of the above is 100% correct. I just got the PM from Matt that the disclaimer above is live. Therefore, with some trepidation I hereby announce this thread once more open for business.

Don't be the first one to test our resolve with the new thread rules. We are 100% serious, and even with the disclaimer it was controversial among the mods to re-open this thread. Please don't make me regret my advocacy.

1,000 hour update coming!

Thanks for re-opening the thread. A lot of good stuff came up in between the dick measuring.

I'm prepping a belated 4500 hour update (hopefully this weekend), with all the statistical bells and whistles. My local games have been running a lot of RxR and straight PLO, so this time around I'm going to break those out explicitly instead of just lumping them as "other".

We've already seen how noisy small samples of NLHE can be, and from my own results I wouldn't trust anything less than 300 hours to tell me much of anything meaningful. But I have much less experience with PLO ... does anyone have thoughts on how much larger a sample we need, based on the way screwy LLS-PLO games play? (I know this is technically the LLS-NL forum, but the small stakes PLO forum seems to be more online focused.)

Will transfer my 1000 hr update over from my PG&C soon.

I have no answers for PLO size. I'm fairly convinced the best way to play crazy preflop all in PLO games is to just limp shove a lot so in theory you could immediately figure out your win rate by just plugging your limp shove range into stove against whatever wild range you want to give your opponents.

Happy to see the re-opening of this thread

I don't think there is such a thing as a statistically relevant plo sample size (being a bit over the top in saying that). The swings and variance is just so much greater than NL.

Having said that if you are winning over maybe 1k hours I would assume you at least know what you are doing and can make some assumptions depending on how much you are winning.














I'm busy not caring

So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.

I'd record it as a separate game "$4k freeroll MTT". It's nice to know how you did, and helpful for taxes. But you don't want to just bake it into your normal results.

Have ~1400 hour NL sample to post or can post about 1500 hours with PLO included where I got pretty crushed in the 100 hours. What would people prefer?


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Both?

Ok I'll do that tonight or tomorrow


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Yea good idea thanks!

Ive never understood this debate. Just record it and filter nbased on your desired output. If you want to know how you're doing based on your time spent, then include it. If you want to know how you're actually doing in the game then don't. It shouldn't be difficult to filter out I would think. Maybe I guess. I don't know what kind of record system you have.

PASTED FROM PG&C FROM ~ 1 MONTH AGO

1000 hours

I have now officially gone over 1000 hours of 1/2 NLH. I have a smattering of other games and stakes, but this has been my main game for several years. Why haven't I branched out?

1. Bank roll. I was a bank roll nit for a while. Then I had to spend it on school. Then, I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to start over. Then, once I had run it up with the help of a stake, I had to spend it all again on a wedding and honeymoon. Now, I'm rebuilding again. I've already stated that once I reach my min bank roll goal, I'll send the next few months putting money into our house down payment project. That being said, I'm never going broke again for nonpoker reasons. The wife is aware of my rules for this money. I took her out to breakfast this morning with some winnings just to let her remember that there are benefits for her to not try to pressure me into using it.

2. Location. I have several 1/2 games within 15 minutes of me. Most of the time that is necessary due to my family restraints. If 1/2 is the only game you can get to, you play it.

3. I haven't played a lot of other games because I have stayed away from PLO. Sometimes it's been due to bank roll and avoiding swings. Mostly though, it's because my edge isn't nearly as big. PLO doesn't lend itself to massive edges anyway, but I also have very little experience playing it. I'm just now figuring out how to beat it. If I want to follow the trend of the community (and the whales), I'll need to break into this game in a serious way.

I have goals to address these things which I will share in a bit.



Now for the moment you've all been waiting for: The Results!







If I hadn't lost that $1800 AA<66 pot last week I would have cracked $25/hr. Oh well. That just goes to show you how small a sample size 1000 hrs actually is. One big pot can shave 1-2bb/hr in either direction.

I'm obviously ecstatic with these results. Most of my hours were in short sessions, a surprising number were on week days, with most coming later at night during peak hours.

This 1000 hrs took about 4 years to compile. I'd say that's a testament to how busy I was with school and family including several long lay offs. If I could Id play all the time. Interestingly, my win rate has climbed considerably the longer I've played. The sample size isn't big enough to make any true judgments, but it suggests that I've improved at a much faster rate than my player pool.

My first 500 hrs looked like this:






Second 500 hrs were much better:



This can be construed as big improvement as well as running better than anyone has a right to. I hope it's some of both and not just the latter.



Obviously these results made me feel liek this:

Posts from the temp WR thread have been merged.

+6bb/hour over 300 hours = probably not a huge donator but otherwise sample size too small to draw any conclusions, correct?

correct. Completely possible to be a break even player on a "heater" in that sample. Also possible to be a crusher running bad.

Yeah, what I figured. I feel like I ran bad for the first 150 hours and now I'm clearly sunrunning so it seems like a reasonable WR overall but yeah lol sample size.

Hopefully my feels are correct, if so probably better to survive the downswing and then sunrun rather than the other way around.

Just broke 2000 hours. First 1000 hours I ran average to good. But I've got bad news - it's completely possible to experience 1000 hours of unimaginably bad negative variance which I was oblivious and naive to in 2015.

If I remember some of the long time grinders tried to warn you of that back then. It's interesting to see how your view point has changed since then. It's noticeable. That said, 1000 of run bad can easily be followed by 1000 hrs of sun run. It all evens out if you play long enough.

werebeer- your sample can be small but it still is pretty easy to tell if someone has the technical skill to be a winner. A fish on a heater usually doesn't even know to ask the right questions, whereas someone who realizes they're running good or bad is probably on the safe side. I "knew" i was a winner in my games almost immediately. That's not because I was able to judge my own skill, but because I could identify what the right plays were and how badly my opponents were playing. I'm sure you're in a similar spot.

I can see that I'm considerably stronger than the field and yeah they make rookie errors right and left. My problem is I'm not sure I win hard enough to beat the rake and time charge for a decent clip (say 5bb+/hr)...I'm in this spot where I'm sure I'm in the top two or three players at the table every time, but I don't know if I'm usually the best player at the table or not.

EDIT

I will say I've noticed some of the regs I thought were hot **** when I first started playing are in fact pretty bad.

I should have 4-5k worth of hours in the next few weeks. I haven't won a lot lol. I have noticed that some months you win 12k without breaking a sweat, some months you are happy to break even because winning is such a thing of the past. One day I flopped 7/8 sets with pocket pairs, in two hours. Another day I lost with 22 on K2525.

I will say that one should expect to lose 10buyins fairly often and should have whatever bankroll they are comfortable using for 10-20buy in swings. I also suggest hiring multiple coaches to work on different aspects of your poker game. Not working on my game, playing worse and in denial about things, all added to multiple 300hr break even stretches and a medium to low win rate.

People did try to warn me and I generally disregarded it because I didn't understand what they were talking about. I'm pretty sure whatever they were trying to warn me about though was considerably less severe then the actual variance I exhibited this year. 2015 I beat 1/2 for 35/hr, 2/5 for 68/hr and had a 67% session win rate. 2016 I'm running 25/hr at 1/2 and 2/5 I haven't even bothered to retabulate because it's been -70/hr for months on end with a sub-50% win rate across all limits. I'm up about 30k this year but the negative variance has forced me to completely alter my game plan. I won't even consider playing 2/5 full-time until my BR is >50k and I still think that is too low. Parx 2/5 is probably the toughest game in town and the variance at this 200 BB game cap is absurd.