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Old 09-08-2016, 06:32 PM   #16151
Garick
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

How to calculate your 95% confidence win rate. Note that the more hours you have and/or the smaller your standard deviation is, the tighter the interval between your upper and lower bounds.

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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
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Old 09-13-2016, 10:19 PM   #16152
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Live Poker Hourly

Hi there comunity, i use the advance search trying to find threads with the information im looking for but they are either old or close so dont know if it is a sub-forum rule or something that is not allowed to answer these tipe of questions and i appologize if it is.

My question is as the title of this thread says what is the current average hourly you could expect for a normal/decent regular at 1-2 and 2-5?
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Old 09-13-2016, 10:22 PM   #16153
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

This depends on many factors, but generally those beating a level for 10 big-blinds per hour are among the very best.
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Old 09-14-2016, 07:17 PM   #16154
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

To just expand a bit on what Garick said, the normal/decent regular in a poker room loses money. You have to be one of the best at your table to make any money.

To give an example, there were only three players who were playing the "big game" when it started at the Mirage and were still playing it when it moved to the Bellagio. Everyone else had to drop out. There was an old Life magazine article on the Gardena poker room from the 1970s. Of the 2000 regulars, 7 made a good living. Another 30-50 made some money and the rest were losing.

A poker life is much more like playing in the NFL than an accounting career. Few are even capable of making it and even then, they only last a couple of years. Don't aim to be decent. You need to aim to be the best at your table or room to survive.
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Old 09-15-2016, 06:41 AM   #16155
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
Quote:
To just expand a bit on what Garick said, the normal/decent regular in a poker room <b>loses</b> money. You have to be one of the best at your table to make any money. <br />
<br />
To give an example, there were only three players who were playing the "big game" when it started at the Mirage and were still playing it when it moved to the Bellagio. Everyone else had to drop out. There was an old Life magazine article on the Gardena poker room from the 1970s. Of the 2000 regulars, 7 made a good living. Another 30-50 made some money and the rest were losing.<br />
<br />
A poker life is much more like playing in the NFL than an accounting career. Few are even capable of making it and even then, they only last a couple of years. Don't aim to be decent. You need to aim to be the best at your table or room to survive.
That's pretty much okay though, because the average live player is recreational and has no clue what he's doing. Another study was conducted in 2009 that concluded there were about 23 million regular players in the US (of which about 3 to 4 million played online -- this was pre BF after all), and only about 1.5% even READ poker magazines or visited poker sites. From registration and viewership numbers at 2+2, it's pretty safe to assume that the number of people who are serious about poker strategy stands at well under 100,000. Of them, maybe 30% are actually good players.

So the shark:fish ratio in the tank is pretty healthy.
.
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Old 09-20-2016, 11:09 AM   #16156
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As soon as we get the logistics worked out the thread will be re-opened. Familiarize yourself with these rules if you plan on posting itt.

Welcome to the LLSNL Bankrolls, Win Rates, and Finances thread. This thread has had some major issues in the past, so before you can post, you need to agree to some thread rules.

Rule 1: This is considered a strategy thread, therefore, LLSNL posting rule #1 applies: NO TROLLING STRAT THREADS. Period. No "but the question/claim/etc. was obviously a troll so I should be allowed to..." no "Poster X's post was worse than mine," etc. Just no trolling.

Rule 2: Be constructive. No "lol, you must be kidding," no "no ****ing way you are winning that much," no "fish on a heater," etc. Posting "your results are nice, but based on my experience and what I've seen from other winning players, I don't think they are sustainable" type posts is fine. If there is any doubt about which side of the fence your post falls on, the responding mod's interpretation is final. Please don't try to crowd the line.

Rule 3: If you think someone is breaking rules one or two, just hit report. Don't respond in the thread.

Consequences:

If you break any of these rules ITT, but don't seem ill intentioned, you will be warned via PM by a mod. Whether you get a warning is up to the responding mod. The mod may go directly to the step below. If so, no whining about it.

If you break one of these rules egregiously, or at all after having previously been warned, you will be exiled from this thread.

If you post in this thread again after being exiled from the thread, you will be temp-banned from 2+2

If you post ITT after a temp-ban for breaking banishment and/or create a gimmick account that posts ITT after a banishment, you will be permanently banned from 2+2.

Last, but not least, please stay on topic. If you just want to chat poker, please go to the LLSNL Chat Thread. This is a strategy thread for questions/comments/advice on Bankrolls, Win rates, and Finances.
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Old 09-20-2016, 11:10 AM   #16157
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

As soon as the old thread reopens I will merge all of these posts into it.
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Old 09-20-2016, 06:23 PM   #16158
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'll just note that the mepthybridge rule is still in effect. If you piss a mod off enough with your trolling, you can and will be instantly perma-banned even after one offense.
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Old 09-20-2016, 06:44 PM   #16159
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

All of the above is 100% correct. I just got the PM from Matt that the disclaimer above is live. Therefore, with some trepidation I hereby announce this thread once more open for business.

Don't be the first one to test our resolve with the new thread rules. We are 100% serious, and even with the disclaimer it was controversial among the mods to re-open this thread. Please don't make me regret my advocacy.
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Old 09-20-2016, 06:47 PM   #16160
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



1,000 hour update coming!
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Old 09-20-2016, 07:07 PM   #16161
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for re-opening the thread. A lot of good stuff came up in between the dick measuring.

I'm prepping a belated 4500 hour update (hopefully this weekend), with all the statistical bells and whistles. My local games have been running a lot of RxR and straight PLO, so this time around I'm going to break those out explicitly instead of just lumping them as "other".

We've already seen how noisy small samples of NLHE can be, and from my own results I wouldn't trust anything less than 300 hours to tell me much of anything meaningful. But I have much less experience with PLO ... does anyone have thoughts on how much larger a sample we need, based on the way screwy LLS-PLO games play? (I know this is technically the LLS-NL forum, but the small stakes PLO forum seems to be more online focused.)
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Old 09-20-2016, 07:33 PM   #16162
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Will transfer my 1000 hr update over from my PG&C soon.

I have no answers for PLO size. I'm fairly convinced the best way to play crazy preflop all in PLO games is to just limp shove a lot so in theory you could immediately figure out your win rate by just plugging your limp shove range into stove against whatever wild range you want to give your opponents.
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Old 09-20-2016, 07:42 PM   #16163
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Happy to see the re-opening of this thread
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Old 09-20-2016, 07:47 PM   #16164
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Thanks for re-opening the thread. A lot of good stuff came up in between the dick measuring.

I'm prepping a belated 4500 hour update (hopefully this weekend), with all the statistical bells and whistles. My local games have been running a lot of RxR and straight PLO, so this time around I'm going to break those out explicitly instead of just lumping them as "other".

We've already seen how noisy small samples of NLHE can be, and from my own results I wouldn't trust anything less than 300 hours to tell me much of anything meaningful. But I have much less experience with PLO ... does anyone have thoughts on how much larger a sample we need, based on the way screwy LLS-PLO games play? (I know this is technically the LLS-NL forum, but the small stakes PLO forum seems to be more online focused.)


I don't think there is such a thing as a statistically relevant plo sample size (being a bit over the top in saying that). The swings and variance is just so much greater than NL.

Having said that if you are winning over maybe 1k hours I would assume you at least know what you are doing and can make some assumptions depending on how much you are winning.














I'm busy not caring
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Old 09-20-2016, 08:01 PM   #16165
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
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Old 09-20-2016, 08:14 PM   #16166
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny View Post
So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
I'd record it as a separate game "$4k freeroll MTT". It's nice to know how you did, and helpful for taxes. But you don't want to just bake it into your normal results.
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Old 09-20-2016, 08:39 PM   #16167
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Have ~1400 hour NL sample to post or can post about 1500 hours with PLO included where I got pretty crushed in the 100 hours. What would people prefer?


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Old 09-20-2016, 08:49 PM   #16168
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Both?
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Old 09-20-2016, 09:29 PM   #16169
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Ok I'll do that tonight or tomorrow


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Old 09-20-2016, 09:36 PM   #16170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'd record it as a separate game "$4k freeroll MTT". It's nice to know how you did, and helpful for taxes. But you don't want to just bake it into your normal results.
Yea good idea thanks!
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Old 09-20-2016, 09:53 PM   #16171
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny View Post
So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
Ive never understood this debate. Just record it and filter nbased on your desired output. If you want to know how you're doing based on your time spent, then include it. If you want to know how you're actually doing in the game then don't. It shouldn't be difficult to filter out I would think. Maybe I guess. I don't know what kind of record system you have.
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Old 09-20-2016, 10:07 PM   #16172
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

PASTED FROM PG&C FROM ~ 1 MONTH AGO

1000 hours


I have now officially gone over 1000 hours of 1/2 NLH. I have a smattering of other games and stakes, but this has been my main game for several years. Why haven't I branched out?

1. Bank roll. I was a bank roll nit for a while. Then I had to spend it on school. Then, I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to start over. Then, once I had run it up with the help of a stake, I had to spend it all again on a wedding and honeymoon. Now, I'm rebuilding again. I've already stated that once I reach my min bank roll goal, I'll send the next few months putting money into our house down payment project. That being said, I'm never going broke again for nonpoker reasons. The wife is aware of my rules for this money. I took her out to breakfast this morning with some winnings just to let her remember that there are benefits for her to not try to pressure me into using it.

2. Location. I have several 1/2 games within 15 minutes of me. Most of the time that is necessary due to my family restraints. If 1/2 is the only game you can get to, you play it.

3. I haven't played a lot of other games because I have stayed away from PLO. Sometimes it's been due to bank roll and avoiding swings. Mostly though, it's because my edge isn't nearly as big. PLO doesn't lend itself to massive edges anyway, but I also have very little experience playing it. I'm just now figuring out how to beat it. If I want to follow the trend of the community (and the whales), I'll need to break into this game in a serious way.

I have goals to address these things which I will share in a bit.



Now for the moment you've all been waiting for: The Results!







If I hadn't lost that $1800 AA<66 pot last week I would have cracked $25/hr. Oh well. That just goes to show you how small a sample size 1000 hrs actually is. One big pot can shave 1-2bb/hr in either direction.

I'm obviously ecstatic with these results. Most of my hours were in short sessions, a surprising number were on week days, with most coming later at night during peak hours.

This 1000 hrs took about 4 years to compile. I'd say that's a testament to how busy I was with school and family including several long lay offs. If I could Id play all the time. Interestingly, my win rate has climbed considerably the longer I've played. The sample size isn't big enough to make any true judgments, but it suggests that I've improved at a much faster rate than my player pool.

My first 500 hrs looked like this:






Second 500 hrs were much better:



This can be construed as big improvement as well as running better than anyone has a right to. I hope it's some of both and not just the latter.



Obviously these results made me feel liek this:

Spoiler:
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Old 09-20-2016, 11:17 PM   #16173
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Posts from the temp WR thread have been merged.
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Old 09-21-2016, 12:23 AM   #16174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

+6bb/hour over 300 hours = probably not a huge donator but otherwise sample size too small to draw any conclusions, correct?
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Old 09-21-2016, 12:37 AM   #16175
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Quote:
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+6bb/hour over 300 hours = probably not a huge donator but otherwise sample size too small to draw any conclusions, correct?
correct. Completely possible to be a break even player on a "heater" in that sample. Also possible to be a crusher running bad.
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