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09-08-2016, 06:32 PM   #16151
Garick
Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

How to calculate your 95% confidence win rate. Note that the more hours you have and/or the smaller your standard deviation is, the tighter the interval between your upper and lower bounds.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula: (2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played So my standard deviation at 500nl is \$343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal And my hours played is 1333.23 My current winrate is \$51.77 per hour Plugging it in: (2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23) = 137.572/36.51342218965514 = +- 3.77BBs So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between: \$51.77-(3.77*\$5) and \$51.77+(3.77*\$5) Or \$32.92 to \$70.62 per hour

 09-13-2016, 10:19 PM #16152 xPISCIVOROUSx adept   Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 752 Live Poker Hourly Hi there comunity, i use the advance search trying to find threads with the information im looking for but they are either old or close so dont know if it is a sub-forum rule or something that is not allowed to answer these tipe of questions and i appologize if it is. My question is as the title of this thread says what is the current average hourly you could expect for a normal/decent regular at 1-2 and 2-5?
 09-13-2016, 10:22 PM #16153 Garick Oberbiergenießer     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,603 Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread*** This depends on many factors, but generally those beating a level for 10 big-blinds per hour are among the very best.
 09-14-2016, 07:17 PM #16154 venice10 Referee     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Nowhere special Posts: 24,734 Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread*** To just expand a bit on what Garick said, the normal/decent regular in a poker room loses money. You have to be one of the best at your table to make any money. To give an example, there were only three players who were playing the "big game" when it started at the Mirage and were still playing it when it moved to the Bellagio. Everyone else had to drop out. There was an old Life magazine article on the Gardena poker room from the 1970s. Of the 2000 regulars, 7 made a good living. Another 30-50 made some money and the rest were losing. A poker life is much more like playing in the NFL than an accounting career. Few are even capable of making it and even then, they only last a couple of years. Don't aim to be decent. You need to aim to be the best at your table or room to survive.
09-15-2016, 06:41 AM   #16155
venice10
Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Nowhere special
Posts: 24,734
Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
Quote:
 To just expand a bit on what Garick said, the normal/decent regular in a poker room loses money. You have to be one of the best at your table to make any money.

To give an example, there were only three players who were playing the "big game" when it started at the Mirage and were still playing it when it moved to the Bellagio. Everyone else had to drop out. There was an old Life magazine article on the Gardena poker room from the 1970s. Of the 2000 regulars, 7 made a good living. Another 30-50 made some money and the rest were losing.

A poker life is much more like playing in the NFL than an accounting career. Few are even capable of making it and even then, they only last a couple of years. Don't aim to be decent. You need to aim to be the best at your table or room to survive.
That's pretty much okay though, because the average live player is recreational and has no clue what he's doing. Another study was conducted in 2009 that concluded there were about 23 million regular players in the US (of which about 3 to 4 million played online -- this was pre BF after all), and only about 1.5% even READ poker magazines or visited poker sites. From registration and viewership numbers at 2+2, it's pretty safe to assume that the number of people who are serious about poker strategy stands at well under 100,000. Of them, maybe 30% are actually good players.

So the shark:fish ratio in the tank is pretty healthy.
.

 09-20-2016, 11:10 AM #16157 AcePlayerDeluxe 1st Gear Pinned     Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 18,807 Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread*** As soon as the old thread reopens I will merge all of these posts into it.
 09-20-2016, 06:23 PM #16158 venice10 Referee     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Nowhere special Posts: 24,734 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I'll just note that the mepthybridge rule is still in effect. If you piss a mod off enough with your trolling, you can and will be instantly perma-banned even after one offense.
 09-20-2016, 06:44 PM #16159 Garick Oberbiergenießer     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,603 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances All of the above is 100% correct. I just got the PM from Matt that the disclaimer above is live. Therefore, with some trepidation I hereby announce this thread once more open for business. Don't be the first one to test our resolve with the new thread rules. We are 100% serious, and even with the disclaimer it was controversial among the mods to re-open this thread. Please don't make me regret my advocacy.
 09-20-2016, 06:47 PM #16160 nicname grinder   Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Big 12 Posts: 627 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances 1,000 hour update coming!
 09-20-2016, 07:07 PM #16161 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Thanks for re-opening the thread. A lot of good stuff came up in between the dick measuring. I'm prepping a belated 4500 hour update (hopefully this weekend), with all the statistical bells and whistles. My local games have been running a lot of RxR and straight PLO, so this time around I'm going to break those out explicitly instead of just lumping them as "other". We've already seen how noisy small samples of NLHE can be, and from my own results I wouldn't trust anything less than 300 hours to tell me much of anything meaningful. But I have much less experience with PLO ... does anyone have thoughts on how much larger a sample we need, based on the way screwy LLS-PLO games play? (I know this is technically the LLS-NL forum, but the small stakes PLO forum seems to be more online focused.)
 09-20-2016, 07:33 PM #16162 spikeraw22 The Situation     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: SB is the new BTN Posts: 8,731 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Will transfer my 1000 hr update over from my PG&C soon. I have no answers for PLO size. I'm fairly convinced the best way to play crazy preflop all in PLO games is to just limp shove a lot so in theory you could immediately figure out your win rate by just plugging your limp shove range into stove against whatever wild range you want to give your opponents.
 09-20-2016, 07:42 PM #16163 y0l0Theory grinder   Join Date: May 2013 Location: Sukhumvit, BKK Posts: 468 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Happy to see the re-opening of this thread
09-20-2016, 07:47 PM   #16164
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,038
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Thanks for re-opening the thread. A lot of good stuff came up in between the dick measuring. I'm prepping a belated 4500 hour update (hopefully this weekend), with all the statistical bells and whistles. My local games have been running a lot of RxR and straight PLO, so this time around I'm going to break those out explicitly instead of just lumping them as "other". We've already seen how noisy small samples of NLHE can be, and from my own results I wouldn't trust anything less than 300 hours to tell me much of anything meaningful. But I have much less experience with PLO ... does anyone have thoughts on how much larger a sample we need, based on the way screwy LLS-PLO games play? (I know this is technically the LLS-NL forum, but the small stakes PLO forum seems to be more online focused.)

I don't think there is such a thing as a statistically relevant plo sample size (being a bit over the top in saying that). The swings and variance is just so much greater than NL.

Having said that if you are winning over maybe 1k hours I would assume you at least know what you are doing and can make some assumptions depending on how much you are winning.

I'm busy not caring

 09-20-2016, 08:01 PM #16165 McSkinny journeyman     Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: British Columbia, Canada Posts: 347 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
09-20-2016, 08:14 PM   #16166
Angrist
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by McSkinny So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
I'd record it as a separate game "\$4k freeroll MTT". It's nice to know how you did, and helpful for taxes. But you don't want to just bake it into your normal results.

 09-20-2016, 08:39 PM #16167 Cbrewer4 adept     Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: San Diego Posts: 750 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Have ~1400 hour NL sample to post or can post about 1500 hours with PLO included where I got pretty crushed in the 100 hours. What would people prefer? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 09-20-2016, 08:49 PM #16168 iraisetoomuch banned     Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: New Jersey Posts: 34,453 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Both?
 09-20-2016, 09:29 PM #16169 Cbrewer4 adept     Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: San Diego Posts: 750 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Ok I'll do that tonight or tomorrow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
09-20-2016, 09:36 PM   #16170
McSkinny
journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 347
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist I'd record it as a separate game "\$4k freeroll MTT". It's nice to know how you did, and helpful for taxes. But you don't want to just bake it into your normal results.
Yea good idea thanks!

09-20-2016, 09:53 PM   #16171
spikeraw22
The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by McSkinny So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
Ive never understood this debate. Just record it and filter nbased on your desired output. If you want to know how you're doing based on your time spent, then include it. If you want to know how you're actually doing in the game then don't. It shouldn't be difficult to filter out I would think. Maybe I guess. I don't know what kind of record system you have.

 09-20-2016, 10:07 PM #16172 spikeraw22 The Situation     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: SB is the new BTN Posts: 8,731 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances PASTED FROM PG&C FROM ~ 1 MONTH AGO 1000 hours I have now officially gone over 1000 hours of 1/2 NLH. I have a smattering of other games and stakes, but this has been my main game for several years. Why haven't I branched out? 1. Bank roll. I was a bank roll nit for a while. Then I had to spend it on school. Then, I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to start over. Then, once I had run it up with the help of a stake, I had to spend it all again on a wedding and honeymoon. Now, I'm rebuilding again. I've already stated that once I reach my min bank roll goal, I'll send the next few months putting money into our house down payment project. That being said, I'm never going broke again for nonpoker reasons. The wife is aware of my rules for this money. I took her out to breakfast this morning with some winnings just to let her remember that there are benefits for her to not try to pressure me into using it. 2. Location. I have several 1/2 games within 15 minutes of me. Most of the time that is necessary due to my family restraints. If 1/2 is the only game you can get to, you play it. 3. I haven't played a lot of other games because I have stayed away from PLO. Sometimes it's been due to bank roll and avoiding swings. Mostly though, it's because my edge isn't nearly as big. PLO doesn't lend itself to massive edges anyway, but I also have very little experience playing it. I'm just now figuring out how to beat it. If I want to follow the trend of the community (and the whales), I'll need to break into this game in a serious way. I have goals to address these things which I will share in a bit. Now for the moment you've all been waiting for: The Results! If I hadn't lost that \$1800 AA<66 pot last week I would have cracked \$25/hr. Oh well. That just goes to show you how small a sample size 1000 hrs actually is. One big pot can shave 1-2bb/hr in either direction. I'm obviously ecstatic with these results. Most of my hours were in short sessions, a surprising number were on week days, with most coming later at night during peak hours. This 1000 hrs took about 4 years to compile. I'd say that's a testament to how busy I was with school and family including several long lay offs. If I could Id play all the time. Interestingly, my win rate has climbed considerably the longer I've played. The sample size isn't big enough to make any true judgments, but it suggests that I've improved at a much faster rate than my player pool. My first 500 hrs looked like this: Second 500 hrs were much better: This can be construed as big improvement as well as running better than anyone has a right to. I hope it's some of both and not just the latter. Obviously these results made me feel liek this: Spoiler:
 09-20-2016, 11:17 PM #16173 AcePlayerDeluxe 1st Gear Pinned     Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 18,807 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Posts from the temp WR thread have been merged.
 09-21-2016, 12:23 AM #16174 WereBeer Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,650 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances +6bb/hour over 300 hours = probably not a huge donator but otherwise sample size too small to draw any conclusions, correct?
09-21-2016, 12:37 AM   #16175
spikeraw22
The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by WereBeer +6bb/hour over 300 hours = probably not a huge donator but otherwise sample size too small to draw any conclusions, correct?
correct. Completely possible to be a break even player on a "heater" in that sample. Also possible to be a crusher running bad.

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