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Old 08-21-2016, 04:46 PM   #16126
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re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Madian View Post
To be honest that thread is super long as well as messy..
Which is why it was locked and this thread was created (and remains locked). Please read the OP as to the reasons and how to ask any further questions on this subject.
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Old 08-22-2016, 06:30 AM   #16127
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
In ~1000 hrs of 1/2 $300 cap I am right around $24/hr. I think that's about as good as you can do unless you're a professional high stakes players who decides to slum it up for a few months for some reason. If I had to guess a world class player could probably pull down 30-35/hr in a 1/2 game.

The other consideration is when and who you're playing against. My 1000 hrs has taken me years to compile because it's just a hobby for me so a lot of my hours come in small chunks and most have been at peak drunken foolery hours late at night and on weekends. If you had to grind it out in the mid morning on a Tuesday you're rate would surely drop.

I don't have a large enough sample at 2/5 to really even comment although my brief forays into that field have given me no reason to believe that the same level of commitment for me would yield results anywhere from 30-50/hr. I have no way to validate that currently however. So my assumption is a world class player would be well over $50/hr. But there's not much reason for a world class player to be playing at low stakes so moot point.


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Old 08-22-2016, 10:44 AM   #16128
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Re: How much?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Madian View Post
I don't know if this is the right section, because if not, move it please.

I wanted to ask to you guys, what's a good (not "ok" or "acceptable") profit or hourly for a 1-2 live grinder in your opinion?

Same question applies also for a 2-5 live grinder.

Thanks.
A good win rate @ 1/2 $15-$20 over 2000 hours
A good win rate @ 2/5 $50-$60 over 2000 hours

Anything over that is excellent/phenomenal/or ran really good over 2000 hours (you probably played good too with sun running).
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Old 08-22-2016, 12:49 PM   #16129
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Got this in PM in reference to my post above...

Quote:
Are you suggesting 2/5 can be best for higher BB/hr than 1/2? That seems optimistic.
Considering rake at some venues... Yes. Generally more money in play at 2/5 too. Also took into account the winnings that some of our pro members have chimed in with. Would someone be happy with a $30-35/hr clip at 2/5? Absolutely. Dude wanted a "good" WR though. I think $15-20 is a good rate at 1/2 and anyone doing 10-15/hr at 1/2 would be pretty happy assuming they were a rec player. More than $20 after 2000 hours at 1/2 is crushing that game (like $25+ is crushing, and $20-25 is super effing solid).
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Old 08-22-2016, 07:28 PM   #16130
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
More of a theoretical question (directed to the pros who get good volume in and crush overall): how much of a difference time of day/day of week have on overall win rates (in terms of bb/hr)
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Old 08-22-2016, 09:25 PM   #16131
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College Student Bankroll Question

Hi all,

Not too sure if this is the correct place to post this but I am begging for help.

I am a 23 year old college student who is in his senior year. I will be graduating debt free thanks to living at home. I have about 9k to my name. I want to start playing 1/3 every Friday and Saturday night at my local casino.

I usually play about 4x a month and generally am a winning player over the small sample size I have played.

My question is what do you guys suggest i take out of my 9k in savings and dedicate to poker? I make about 600 a month while in college (lol) but only have expenses of about 250 a month (if that)

Also, I will never play online poker. Strictly live 1/3.'

Any general advice would be appreciated thank you all!
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Old 08-22-2016, 10:03 PM   #16132
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

First of all, congrats on getting this close to graduation debt free. It is a gift that maybe you don't fully understand now, but later will be a blessing.

I hope that you plan to pursue your non-poker career. You can make more, while working less in virtually any career other than poker. Poker can be a supplement to your income and remain fun as long as you don't need to win to survive. As long as you do so, you have plenty of money to play 1/3. If you lose, you can replenish your money from your earnings. You have more than enough saved.

Playing poker for a living is a brutal existence. I've used it to get through some rough patches in my life. I know that if I have to, I can make money doing it as a pro. You have to have a will of steel to force yourself to avoid the traps of easy money, fight through the doubts of a downswing, and work when all your friends are relaxing. I have the greatest respect for the pros that post in this forum. Until you've had to depend on the money you earn to eat, you don't really know what being a pro means.

I wish you the best of luck. If you live in the US and feel you won't be able to find a job after you graduate that pays more than playing 1/3 will pay, pm me. If you don't have to live in a particular location, I can find you that job.
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Old 08-22-2016, 10:23 PM   #16133
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

So the general rule of thumb is that if you are a winning player (big if) you are generally (but not always) unlikely to go broke if you have a 20 buy-in bankroll. That means that $6K is (very) generally a fine bankroll for 1/3. That said, if you are going to be working so that you can supplement your BR if you start getting low, you don't need to fence off the entire $6K. I'd fence off at least $3K though, as 10 buy-in downswings are pretty common.
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Old 08-31-2016, 11:52 AM   #16134
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Live BR Management for live

So I know for online it's prob 100+

But what about for Live Low Stake NL games.


These are the game types I'm concerned about...


NO LIMIT HOLD'EM

$2/$3
Buy-in: $100 to $500
Rake: 10% Pot Capped $10 | Time Charge: $5 PPPH

$2/$5 $10 Straddle
Buy-in: $500 to $1,000
Rake: 10% Pot Capped $10 | Time Charge: $5 PPPH




For 2/3 NL, I will buy in for 300 or 500. How many BR I should use for both?

For 2/5/10 NL, I will buy in for 500 or 1000. I prob won't straddle (only some tables) so it will be 2/5 effectively for me.


Hard to estimate win rates, but heard can be $40/hr if play nitty on whale tables at 2/3 but much less if table is full of $100 short stackers which is a rake trap.

2/5 the best regs can do like $80+/hr but they do wide 3betting, and general high variance deep stacked (400bb+) battling, I'm just aiming for a more nitty and conservative approach which might net a smaller hourly.

I know skill level, life situation, hourly all affects your bankroll management and I've run calcs on them in online poker. But for live poker, due to the fact that you get so limited hands and you can afford to shot take v whales. Is 20BI a reasonable number? Is 15BI a reasonable number? What do most of you do? 30-40BI? 100+ BI does seem excessive for live.

I'm looking advise for an aggressive shot taking, moving up stakes BR plan.
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Old 08-31-2016, 12:21 PM   #16135
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Re: Live BR Management for live

Mods may move to wr thread.

Best to go to that thread (stickied). Click link to old locked wr thread and search that thread. There is clutter in there but also what you are seeking.


A common suggestion is 20 Buyins + 6 months living expenses. If you have replenish able income then pretty much shot take as much as you feel ok with obv.

Rake seems tough for the smaller game tho.
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Old 08-31-2016, 12:24 PM   #16136
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Re: Live BR Management for live

is that a $10 rake PLUS a $5 time? That extra $5/hr plus another $5 extra above the norm for every pot won can wipe out a wr very easily.
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Old 08-31-2016, 12:32 PM   #16137
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Re: Live BR Management for live

Not the best rake structure, but assuming fish come in from time to time and most of the regs make fundamental mistakes probably beatable. 20 full buy ins should suffice, but more is always better. If you drop ten will it get into your head? If so, 40 would be more ideal.
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Old 09-01-2016, 06:02 PM   #16138
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randinho
I'm a lapsed LLSNL player of success who is looking to get back into it. I posted a WR of approx. $27/hr in 1600 recorded hours of 1/2 NL in 2008-2013 (lol sample size I know, plus I was a diligent game selector). I'm a competent player who hasn't played seriously since then. I make a living outside of poker but as the result of a recent switch to more pay with less responsibility am finding my days less mentally challenging as they had been in past few years am finding myself looking to get back into poker to fill the void as it were. My finances aren't lacking but my experience is. I am targetting the 2/5 games in my area (Vancouver BC) but without much experience and generally being a BR nit am hesitant to dive right in. I want to put in some hours at 1/2 first but am wondering how many hours would be a good indicator of readiness to make the plunge at 2/5. To be clear BR is not an issue. I make my living at work and have >20 BI at 2/5 but I want to make sure I'm not putting myself into a potentially bad situation before upping the stakes. I honestly don't know how much of a skill gap there is between 1/2 and 2/5. Any advice would be much appreciated.
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Old 09-01-2016, 06:50 PM   #16139
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

This is going to be a heavily market related question.
On the east coast of the US, there are a number of poker markets where you will find that the average skill level at a 1/2 game is only maybe 5 - 10% softer than the average skill level at a 2/5 game. That is to say that they are both somewhat soft.
But there are others where you will only find the best players playing 2/5 and the 1/2 games will remain lol soft.

It is primarily the size of your poker room that will affect this.
The bigger the poker room, the smaller the skill difference between a 1/2 and 2/5 game will be, as the bigger room can support more small winners to break even type players.
If there are 10 crushers in your 2/5 player pool that play 40 hours a week there isn't going to be any room left over at all when there is 1 table going consistently.
However, if there are 20 crushers in your room, and 5 2/5 tables going all the time, all of a sudden that small winner can make a profit.

In the end, you're going to have to play 1/2 for a few hundreds hours to get a decent sense of the skill level there (not your win rate, just how terrible people likely are). And then play a few hundred hours (maybe less if you're getting destroyed and don't know what to do often in a hand) at 2/5.
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Old 09-01-2016, 11:53 PM   #16140
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

I'd put in somewhere between 50-100hrs at 1/2 just to shake the rust loose (maybe less hours) and then jump into 2/5. You'll probably have a small skill gap to overcome, but you won't be too shook up/worried about everyday poker situations/nerves.

You can always move back down if 2/5 is too much for you. Since you have the 2/5 roll you dont have to worry about destroying a 1/2 roll taking shots at 2/5.
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Old 09-03-2016, 08:45 AM   #16141
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

One way to think about this is to assume a normal distribution of players at each level of play. Let's give them an arbitrary average skill level of 5 with a standard deviation of 2. In addition, let's also assume that it takes 4 lower level tables to support 1 next level up table. I base this on Dynasty's surveys over the past 7 years or so which show about this proportion. This analysis would cover a geographical area where there is no barrier to move from room to room. In Las Vegas, there are multiple rooms on the strip and no real barrier to move. Therefore, the strip area would be considered one big room.

At a room with 20 players, there will only be two tables at the lowest limit (say 1/2). There will be 14 players that will have a skill level between 3 and 7. Another 2 players will be be at a 9 and there will maybe one player at an 11 (or at a 0 for being a noob). If you are a 9 player, you're going to be the best player at your 1/2 game. For the most part, a 7 isn't going to be the best player.

Now let us move to the 100 player room. There are 10 tables running. On average, there will be two 2/5 tables and the rest 1/2. A total of 67 players will be between 3-7, with another 12 players running at a 9 and 5 players running at an 11. Since all 11's if they split up the two tables can make money, they are going to play at the 2/5 tables. At least 1/2 of the 9's are also going to play 2/5 as well either because of shot taking or them fooling themselves in believing they can win there.

Of the remaining 8 tables, there is room for several 7 players to be the best player at their table whereas the smaller room doesn't allow them to be the best at the table as often.

The purpose of going through this isn't a show that a bigger room can support weaker players, but rather to say that if you are a "6," going to a bigger rooms isn't going to turn you into a winner automatically. The effect is there, but smaller than many people give credit.
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Old 09-05-2016, 01:05 PM   #16142
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
Quote:
First of all, congrats on getting this close to graduation debt free. It is a gift that maybe you don't fully understand now, but later will be a blessing.<br />
<br />
I hope that you plan to pursue your non-poker career. You can make more, while working less in virtually any career other than poker. Poker can be a supplement to your income and remain fun as long as you don't need to win to survive. As long as you do so, you have plenty of money to play 1/3. If you lose, you can replenish your money from your earnings. You have more than enough saved.<br />
<br />
Playing poker for a living is a brutal existence. I've used it to get through some rough patches in my life. I know that if I have to, I can make money doing it as a pro. You have to have a will of steel to force yourself to avoid the traps of easy money, fight through the doubts of a downswing, and work when all your friends are relaxing. I have the greatest respect for the pros that post in this forum. Until you've had to depend on the money you earn to eat, you don't really know what being a pro means. <br />
<br />
I wish you the best of luck. If you live in the US and feel you won't be able to find a job after you graduate that pays more than playing 1/3 will pay, pm me. If you don't have to live in a particular location, I can find you that job.
I would like to express some slight skepticism here.

As far as I can tell, a solid ABC reg that doesn't spew but isn't very creative probably makes about $22-25/hr at 1/3. A player that's slightly better than the 2+2 average will make closer to $30, and a crusher in a strong market (such as Biloxi, where all the games are uncapped) can make $35-40.

Adjusting for the fact you need about 50% more at poker than at a job (due to more taxes + lack of benefits), and for the time burned waiting for a seat, that means a good 1/3 reg makes about $18/hr. A good 2/5 reg per your estimates makes around $30 in wage-equivalent.

The median US wage is $18/hr. A bachelor's degree holder will make more, but 35% of people with Bachelors don't have jobs, and 40% of the ones employed do stuff unrelated to their degree. 10% are employed part-time for economic reasons (read: working at Walmart because there's currently no better work available).

So if you ARE qualified (not just in terms of skills but in terms of credentials and relevant work history/references) for a good job and you can FIND one, then yeah, a job can make more than poker. Whether it's less effort likely depends on your mental game and how naturally tilt-prone you are, and which aspects of your work you actually consider "work" (for example, off-table statistical analysis is appealing to me).

But I mean, myself for example... my raw talents likely qualify me for a project manager or financial analyst job making $50-70k (or an engineering tech job making similar), but I've been bouncing around crappy sales jobs and low-rent freelance work, and I have a generic business degree. I'm currently waiting to start work making $10/hr (likely to increase to about 13 after trial period), and that's the most I've earned since 2009 -- also likely the best I can get in my area. In about 4 months I expect to be rolled to grind 1/3 at Tunica and make $27-30/hr, and in a year I'm moving down to the coast, where I believe I can make about $35/hr grinding uncapped 1/3, or 45-50 playing uncapped 2/5 (should I choose to play full-time I'll start at 1/3 because I'm a bankroll nit).

Further, in Mississippi my money goes around 15% farther than in the rest of the country, so if I can get a "lucrative" job but it's in (say) Los Angeles, I have to account for a massive hike in my living cost to offset it -- erasing the benefits edge.

There's also the perks of poker that have nothing to do with money. You're your own boss without the extra stress of having to hunt and schmooze clients. You set your hours. You don't have to wear a suit or keep a certain image, which in a professional job making a similar amount you do. You don't have to deal with ******* bosses. You meet entertaining degens all day. You can even network for when/if you ever get tired of the life.

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Old 09-06-2016, 06:25 AM   #16143
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
Those winrates look highly optimistic. I really doubt an average U creative reg can make $30/hr at 1/3. A crusher can but we're not discussing a very large population at all.
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Old 09-06-2016, 06:26 PM   #16144
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
I said an uncreative reg will make $22-25. Someone better than the 2+2 norm (And the best players in their respective stakes are nearly all 2+2ers so that's already a high standard) will make $30, at a normal 1/3. At a deepstacked 1/3, maybe add 15-30% to that.
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Old 09-06-2016, 06:50 PM   #16145
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
I guess it depends on the game. I don't believe an I creative reg will make that much. As for someone better than that you're probably close although it highly depends on how deep the game plays. I play 1/2 but max BI is $300 so flor all intents and purposes it's a $1/3 game. I estimate the max is ~$30/hr.
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Old 09-06-2016, 10:43 PM   #16146
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Sample Size?

I'm a serious rec, meaning poker is not my main source of income. I'm in a transition period, where I expect work to relocate me to Vegas soon.

I've logged 530 hours of cash this year playing majority at 1/2, while also playing some 1/3 and 2/5. Right now I'm making about 12 BB per hour.

I was wondering if this is a big enough sample size to actually build some expectations from.

My goal would be to move towards more hours when I actually get established in LV...just trying to figure out if I'm where I should be.

DR
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Old 09-07-2016, 07:36 AM   #16147
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

If youre winning at this many hours, then you're probably a winner.
If you're losing, you're probably a loser.

In the current conditions that you play in.

Which means that when you start playing a different times of the week, in a new location, against new opponents, things can very easily change.
But if you're moving to Vegas anyway, then just start racking up the hours and keep tracking.

You're very likely to be a winning player if you're willing at 12bb/hour for 500 hours. But you're likely not going to keep winning that much.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:04 AM   #16148
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Personally I don't think 530 hours tells you much. It may give you an indication if you are a winning or losing player, but that is not always the truth. The thing it won't tell you is how big of a winner (or loser) you may be. You could be running at 12bb/hr now, but in the next 500 hours you could see it drop in half.

Irtm is also correct in that once you move the game will change, and IMO the 530 hours at a winning clip will only mean that you might be somewhat competent at the game. If this is true then you will learn to adjust to your new environment. I think we can start making stronger assumptions when we get to 1000 hours. Obviously the more we play the more accurate stats are.
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Old 09-08-2016, 10:29 AM   #16149
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
Regarding BoilerDan's question about 500 hour samples ...

I'd direct him to a couple of graphs and discussions I posted in the winrate thread. For the start of the discussion:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=13662

For a comparison of 500 hour samples:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=13672

An older post that plots 100 and 500 hour moving "windows" of winrate and shows how worthless a 100 hour sample is:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=8817

Hope these help.
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Old 09-08-2016, 06:18 PM   #16150
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Re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Here are a few "best of" posts from the old thread IRT sample sizes and confidence in winrate accuracy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post


^ I think this is what people are after

This is calculated for a player with 100bb/hr stdev. I could add more lines to the chart for players with more or less variance, or you can just multiply/divide in your head.

This shows the bounds of your 95% confidence in your WR.

example:
At 200 hours, if you are showing 8 bb/hr:

- you are 95% confident your real winrate is between -6bb / hr and 22 bb / hr


At 10,000 hours, your +/- is 2bb/hr for 95% confidence. (So 10 bb/hr at 10,000 hours is confident between 8 bb/hr and 12 bb/hr)

... but to one major point - in 10,000 hours a lot of variables change (you, your local game, etc) - so the past data is less relevant or even wrong vs current data.

In short, winning is good. Winning over several hundred hours or 1k+ hours pretty much means you are a winning player. WR is not going to converge... ever. Just continue to win
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