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Old 08-10-2016, 04:04 PM   #16076
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW, in spite of the recent BS, I think it would be a shame to lock up this thread long term. It's the only place where people can post their winrates / hours so that we can see what is possible / probable / get an idea of what the long term is / etc.

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Old 08-10-2016, 04:17 PM   #16077
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Old 08-10-2016, 05:18 PM   #16078
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
FWIW, in spite of the recent BS, I think it would be a shame to lock up this thread long term. It's the only place where people can post their winrates / hours so that we can see what is possible / probable / get an idea of what the long term is / etc.

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That's why I'm for selective bans. The thread does serve as a legitimate containment thread for WR/BR questions. The spousal topic was in the fringes but I think relevant to begin with.
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Old 08-10-2016, 05:20 PM   #16079
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Im not going to argue that because I havent played enough in other places to know for sure, but I did play about 40-50 hrs in Vegas, SF and Seattle 2 weeks ago and didnt notice ans serious skill differences between there and S. Florida.



Seattle definitely seemed softer though.


LOL, I love it when people say Seattle is soft and yet you can't spot more than a handful of regs that can beat the game.

Yes, we pay off some random nut peddlers we never seen before, because no one can just nut peddle and survive in these games.
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Old 08-10-2016, 05:42 PM   #16080
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
and yet you can't spot more than a handful of regs that can beat the game.
Isn't this true of most non-crazy big markets?

Having said that, I have no opinion on what market is better than others. Seems to me you'd have to put in a lot of hours in a lot of different markets to have a valid opinion.

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Old 08-10-2016, 06:00 PM   #16081
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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My variance is very very low which is another reason I have such confidence in my results. My StnDev is only 5.5 times my win rate. I havent found a single person yet that has a lower ratio.
How important is that ratio and what does it mean? FWIW, mine is lower than 5.5.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:00 PM   #16082
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I live in a non-regulated poker market (Texas; no casinos) As such, the rake here is extraordinarily high (15 dollar max rake, 2 dollar high hand, 1 dollar monthly freeroll) which is even smaller rake than the other underground poker rooms here. Currently averaging 46.15/hr in this game over 52 hours, continue playing and monitor win rates or is the consensus that a rake this size is unbeatable? Other poker options involve 2 hours commute, which makes the expenses higher than even a 15 dollar rake.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:01 PM   #16083
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
LOL, I love it when people say Seattle is soft and yet you can't spot more than a handful of regs that can beat the game.

Yes, we pay off some random nut peddlers we never seen before, because no one can just nut peddle and survive in these games.
The game I was in was the 3/5 at Muckleshoot. They have no 1/2 game there so anyone wanting to play low stakes NL has to play 3/5 and most of those guys had no business in a 3/5 game. I played it 2 nights in a row (obviously not a lot of hours) and it was very soft. Shockingly soft.

If you are referring to me as a nut peddler, Ive been called lots of things but a nut peddler certainly isn't one of them.

(Yes I realize its spread limit and not actual NL, but close enough)
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:05 PM   #16084
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Originally Posted by MineDigger View Post
I live in a non-regulated poker market (Texas; no casinos) As such, the rake here is extraordinarily high (15 dollar max rake, 2 dollar high hand, 1 dollar monthly freeroll) which is even smaller rake than the other underground poker rooms here. Currently averaging 46.15/hr in this game over 52 hours, continue playing and monitor win rates or is the consensus that a rake this size is unbeatable? Other poker options involve 2 hours commute, which makes the expenses higher than even a 15 dollar rake.
What are the typical stack sizes on the table? My guess is they'd have to be huge and belong to some pretty bad players for a $15 rake to be beatable.

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Old 08-10-2016, 06:08 PM   #16085
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

STDEV / WR = 5 makes me think something is calculated wrong. FWIW - the poker tracking apps calculate it incorrectly.

The best ratios I have ever seen for live poker are ~10:1.. maybe approaching 8:1 at the very very best.

(can't tell where that original quote is or who posted it - but I am curious if legit 5:1 or another app miscalc?)
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:09 PM   #16086
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
How important is that ratio and what does it mean? FWIW, mine is lower than 5.5.
Some people probably dont think its important at all. Some people only care about win rate which is fine, but if that ratio is very low that means that you are making money with a lot less variance.

Most people with patience and some general knowledge of poker can beat the game for a small amount by nut peddling, but their win rate will be low.

Other more skilled people can beat the game at a higher rate by mixing it up more, value betting thinly, getting into more medium to big pots than the nut peddler....but their StdDev is going to be higher. They will have bigger swings. They will build big stacks more often and they will also have bigger downswings.

The people will a lower StdDev / win rate ratio will tend to win more money compared to the risk they are taking with their money. They will also tend to need less total hours played before having confidence that their win rate is closer to their true long term win rate. A player with a massive StdDev might need 2000+ hours, where a player with a lower StdDev may only need 750 hours before their win rates stay fairly constant.

Whats your win rate/hr and your StdDev/hr?
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:11 PM   #16087
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
STDEV / WR = 5 makes me think something is calculated wrong. FWIW - the poker tracking apps calculate it incorrectly.

The best ratios I have ever seen for live poker are ~10:1.. maybe approaching 8:1 at the very very best.

(can't tell where that original quote is or who posted it - but I am curious if legit 5:1 or another app miscalc?)
Its quoted from my post. I'm pretty sure I went thru this once before but if you tell me how to manually calculate it, I will be happy to do it and post my results.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:15 PM   #16088
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I may be wrong but I think you would need your play broken into 1 hour blocks to get a semi-accurate std dev/hour. purely speculating here, but it would seem a poker tracking app would only look at each session as a "block" and would never be able to account for the actual swings that happen within a session, and therefore, an unsustainable hot streak would also reveal itself in an unsustainably low std. deviation, on account of so many of your sessions being winners, if that makes sense.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:16 PM   #16089
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
STDEV / WR = 5 makes me think something is calculated wrong. FWIW - the poker tracking apps calculate it incorrectly.

The best ratios I have ever seen for live poker are ~10:1.. maybe approaching 8:1 at the very very best.

(can't tell where that original quote is or who posted it - but I am curious if legit 5:1 or another app miscalc?)
May be that's it then. I am using the stddev poker income pro gives me.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:20 PM   #16090
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I mean, I've got 400 hours in poker income (which is nothing) and my STDEV / WR is like 3. but I'm also probably running unsustainably good over those 400 hours.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:23 PM   #16091
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
What are the typical stack sizes on the table? My guess is they'd have to be huge and belong to some pretty bad players for a $15 rake to be beatable.

GcluelessrakenoobG
Average buy in is ~300, there's a few guys that buy in for 100 (play fit/fold c-bet almost always takes pot down, will play multiple buy ins, they usually lose 300 prior to quitting). A regular that buys in for 300 (calling station). A regular that buys in for 500 (good TAG). A couple whales that buy in for 500 (not usually there, but when they are they're good for losing 2-3 buyins). The average table is 5 short stacked nits, 2-3 100bb+ buyin calling stations and 2-3 decent players (100bb+). *editing as I realized I never mentioned the stakes (1/3NL mostly hold'em, one night it's round of hold'em round of Omaha, most nights 10 handed, Monday nights 7 handed)
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:27 PM   #16092
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Originally Posted by MineDigger View Post
Average buy in is ~300, there's a few guys that buy in for 100 (play fit/fold c-bet almost always takes pot down, will play multiple buy ins, they usually lose 300 prior to quitting). A regular that buys in for 300 (calling station). A regular that buys in for 500 (good TAG). A couple whales that buy in for 500 (not usually there, but when they are they're good for losing 2-3 buyins). The average table is 5 short stacked nits, 2-3 100bb+ buyin calling stations and 2-3 decent players (100bb+). *editing as I realized I never mentioned the stakes (1/3NL mostly hold'em, one night it's round of hold'em round of Omaha, most nights 10 handed, Monday nights 7 handed)
so a total max of $18 per hand including bad beat and promo? yikes. at what pot size does it cap out?

there could be $400+ coming off the table every hand with that structure. it's going to be really difficult for anyone to be a long term winner in that game.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:27 PM   #16093
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Originally Posted by Dubey View Post
I may be wrong but I think you would need your play broken into 1 hour blocks to get a semi-accurate std dev/hour. purely speculating here, but it would seem a poker tracking app would only look at each session as a "block" and would never be able to account for the actual swings that happen within a session, and therefore, an unsustainable hot streak would also reveal itself in an unsustainably low std. deviation, on account of so many of your sessions being winners, if that makes sense.
Im not a math expert like some guys here. I'm just looking at the StdDev/hr that "RunGood" gives me. I know that about a month ago someone gave me the formula to use and I verified that RunGoods number was correct. I agree though that I dont understand how it calculates StdDev/hr when it only knows session by session results and not actual hour by hour results. My session win % is very high at 76%, but I dont think that's unsustainable. It was at 78% for the first 100 sessions when I posted all my numbers here and its still right there after 215 sessions.

It seems like what I should be looking at would be StnDev/session....but there is a different number for that. Maybe thats what Bip meant when he referenced 10 being a very low number?
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:31 PM   #16094
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many hours do you have (MikeStarr)?
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:35 PM   #16095
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How many hours do you have (MikeStarr)?
A bit over 900
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:45 PM   #16096
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A good player on a decent heater can produce low STDEV/WR calcs.. so it is not necessarily a mis-calc. What are the stats?

Hours: 900

WR: ? (? Do you only play one stake? If not, did you normalize your results by bb?)

STDEV: ?

Average session length: ?
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Old 08-10-2016, 08:53 PM   #16097
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The game I was in was the 3/5 at Muckleshoot. They have no 1/2 game there so anyone wanting to play low stakes NL has to play 3/5 and most of those guys had no business in a 3/5 game. I played it 2 nights in a row (obviously not a lot of hours) and it was very soft. Shockingly soft.
How is it soft?
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Old 08-10-2016, 08:54 PM   #16098
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
How important is that ratio and what does it mean? FWIW, mine is lower than 5.5.


It means nothing. True WR more important than your standard deviation. Like playing a massive whale is often times way more ev and way more variance


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Old 08-10-2016, 08:56 PM   #16099
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Sigh. Its like getting in AA versus KK. Yes AA loses 1 every 5 times, but the spot is so profitable we can basically say its variance free.
What about running KK into AA? We don't count those? Or losing QQ to AK?

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Same with raising the 50 year old white woman on the turn when she nervously bets $35 into $125 pot and she has $450 behind her. She's never calling your raise without a set. Your raise is "printing" money even though 1 time in 10 she has a set.
How many such player profile are at your table? How often? What if they have draws, do they fold?

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Believe it or not. Some people are actually good at poker and make money at this game.
Ya, I am one of them and I don't think you know what variance free means.
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Old 08-10-2016, 08:59 PM   #16100
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Originally Posted by Cbrewer4 View Post
It means nothing. True WR more important than your standard deviation. Like playing a massive whale is often times way more ev and way more variance
What does that even mean?

It's almost like saying number of yards per attempt is more important than completion %.
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