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Old 07-21-2016, 10:42 AM   #15751
nutinsider
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If I recall correctly (???), Duke recently (within 2 months?) posted a giraffe / stats with fairly impressive overall results that included a decent breakeven period.

See post#14598, was a ~300 hour breakeven stretch and a ~500 hour of below minimum wage.

G650hoursain't****,imoG
These stretches are extremely normal and can occur for many different reasons. I have a total live sample of 5k hours. In those hours, I have had one 1800 hour break even stretch, and two 500 hour stretches.

From November 2014 until early summer 2016 I made 0 dollars playing poker.

Ballin.

My observed wr over entire sample is $100/hour and my standard deviation is 22x my win rate.

For me, my big big break even stretch was due to playing in huge games and losing in them. This took me months to recover in my regular games. I also play only PLO.

Variance comes in so many different forms. It would be far easier to forecast if your entire sample was static.

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Old 07-21-2016, 11:49 AM   #15752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For the winners out there at 1/2 - 2/5 that make more than 7bb/ hour over a decent sample: Do you find that you regularly make small errors but still maintain your win rate? Or are these small mistakes pretty rare? Not talking about huge mistakes, but small to medium.

I have a pretty good win rate over a small sample at 1/2 ($30/hr over 120 hours), but i find that maybe on average for every 2-3 hours of play or so, i make a small to medium mistake and im having trouble eliminating them.

Kind of a vague question that might be hard to answer, but is there room for consistent (every 2-3 hours), small mistakes with otherwise solid play when trying to maintain a win rate above 7bb / hr? Do you still make mistakes fairly regularly?
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Old 07-21-2016, 11:52 AM   #15753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone who says they dont make small to medium mistakes at least once or more per session is lying to themselves or is not good enough to realize that some of their plays are mistakes at all.
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Old 07-21-2016, 12:07 PM   #15754
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
For the winners out there at 1/2 - 2/5 that make more than 7bb/ hour over a decent sample: Do you find that you regularly make small errors but still maintain your win rate? Or are these small mistakes pretty rare? Not talking about huge mistakes, but small to medium.

I have a pretty good win rate over a small sample at 1/2 ($30/hr over 120 hours), but i find that maybe on average for every 2-3 hours of play or so, i make a small to medium mistake and im having trouble eliminating them.

Kind of a vague question that might be hard to answer, but is there room for consistent (every 2-3 hours), small mistakes with otherwise solid play when trying to maintain a win rate above 7bb / hr? Do you still make mistakes fairly regularly?
My guess is that the key is how many (and size of) mistakes you are making compared to your opponents. If your opponents are just lol sucky horrible, you could probably beat up on them long term still making a decent amount of small mistakes / etc. But as soon as your opponents start not sucking nearly as bad, the margin to being profitable against them becomes much thinner, and those mistakes you are making now make it much more difficult to outrun the rake.

GjustaguessG
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Old 07-21-2016, 12:19 PM   #15755
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Anyone who says they dont make small to medium mistakes at least once or more per session is lying to themselves or is not good enough to realize that some of their plays are mistakes at all.
Or only plays really *really* short sessions
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Old 07-21-2016, 12:27 PM   #15756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think everyone makes a few mistakes here and there. It's incredibly difficult to play at 100% all the time, and then there are a lot of mistakes that you can't even see that you're making.

Something to keep in mind is that mistakes that are -EV in a vacuum for a single hand may not be as bad overall. Over-limping or completing the SB wide is a small mistake. Calling off a draw when the pot odds aren't quite right is a small mistake. But these things can impact our image and future EV. One of the *few* things that random players seem to notice is folding the SB in a limped pot ... I've had them call me a nit immediately for that. Sure, we can adjust and exploit whatever image we have, but I expect that having a little more of an actiony image is more profitable than a nitty one. Getting one extra bad river call for 75BB from a villain because we're not a nit makes up for a *lot* of small 0.25-0.5BB preflop mistakes.
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Old 07-21-2016, 12:34 PM   #15757
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Or only plays really *really* short sessions
You would be surprised how many small mistakes a person can make in a short session
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Old 07-21-2016, 12:40 PM   #15758
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's pretty inefficient to aim to play mistake free poker.

As someone who consistently put up decent volume of poker, I very rarely play my A game. Funniest thing about that, too, is when I recognize that I am playing my A game, I usually run bad, or probably play too loose because I feel on top of my game.
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Old 07-21-2016, 01:01 PM   #15759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you're playing too loosely ... is it really your "A game" anymore?
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Old 07-21-2016, 01:14 PM   #15760
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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If you're playing too loosely ... is it really your "A game" anymore?
only if you're as loose or looser than your bad opponents
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Old 07-21-2016, 01:19 PM   #15761
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For the most part the biggest differentiatior between a winner and crusher is who knows how to play the small and medium pots better, especially heads up. A mistake here isn't necessarily losing the pot though which is an important distinction.
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Old 07-21-2016, 01:34 PM   #15762
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For the most part the biggest differentiatior between a winner and crusher is who knows how to play the small and medium pots better, especially heads up. A mistake here isn't necessarily losing the pot though which is an important distinction.
Very true. One extra $10-20 value-bet an hour (even if it only wins 60% of the time) can be *huge*.
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Old 07-21-2016, 01:35 PM   #15763
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm hitting the 1k mark in hours since beginning of 2015, and I am demolishing the game I play. However, I definitely make small mistakes at least once a session, if not more.

Its weird because fundamentally and technically speaking, I think I am okay. Its easy to think you're "the best" when playing against droolers day in and day out, but out of sheer boredom I find myself getting mixed up sometimes with hands in spots where I shouldn't be. Its also easy to extrapolate (if you aren't brain dead) how those mistakes can be very costly in the right set of circumstances.

I am far from perfect, but that's kind of the beauty in playing live poker isn't it? I am just thrilled that my regular pool of players are all garbo (even the "winning" regs)
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:19 PM   #15764
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
If you're playing too loosely ... is it really your "A game" anymore?
A game to me is that I am hand reading well.

If I am reading hands well, why not play more hands?
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:22 PM   #15765
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You said "too loose" which implies you play too many hands to be profitable. It's great if you're reading their hands well but if you still don't have the right cards to profit from it...
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:24 PM   #15766
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure what we are talking about anymore, but ok.
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Old 07-21-2016, 04:13 PM   #15767
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Not sure what we are talking about anymore, but ok.

Broseph - I have been thinking that for the last 6 months
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Old 07-21-2016, 06:37 PM   #15768
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
A game to me is that I am hand reading well.

If I am reading hands well, why not play more hands?
Nits play their hands face up. Does this mean we want to be giving them action just because we know they have overpairs?

I know what you meant though. Generally, if we know where we are at in every hand, we will have the edge over the table and be able to pick our spots to steal, go for thin value with higher efficiency, etc.
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:12 PM   #15769
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If we're 400bb deep, then hell yes I want to play every pot with an ubernit who only plays overpairs
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:15 PM   #15770
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Isn't the notion of recognizing mistakes we make ourselves kind of results-oriented?

If we do something... making a decision in the moment - knowing all the context - when does it become a mistake? When the guy calls our bluff? When he shows a bluff after our fold? The result doesn't make it a mistake. Or is it when we get home and check PokerStove or 2+2 and are shown/told it was a mistake?

(After all, we don't purposely make mistakes, do we?)

Last edited by jake; 07-21-2016 at 07:16 PM. Reason: addition
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:19 PM   #15771
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I agree 100% jake, I was wondering what in the world do people consider to be "mistakes" in poker?

I would venture to guess that what you think are mistakes likely are not, and the majority of your actual mistakes are going by unnoticed.

Trying to quantify mistakes per X is meaningless since the word "mistake" is being used somewhat ambiguously.

Just review your hands and big pots after your sessions -- plug in ranges, do da mathz, anaylze reads and try to come to objective conclusions and figure out if you think you made a correct play or not. You will never stop making wrong decisions in poker, the big winners simply are able to minimize how many they make comparative to the competition.
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:28 PM   #15772
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by jake View Post
Isn't the notion of recognizing mistakes we make ourselves kind of results-oriented?

If we do something... making a decision in the moment - knowing all the context - when does it become a mistake? When the guy calls our bluff? When he shows a bluff after our fold? The result doesn't make it a mistake. Or is it when we get home and check PokerStove or 2+2 and are shown/told it was a mistake?

(After all, we don't purposely make mistakes, do we?)
I'm actually surprised how many mistakes I make where 2 minutes after the hand I realize a different line would probably have been better, generally not because of results - I try to question plays when they work out well for me, too. I think the reason for these mistakes is both the pressure in the moment (I often think a little clearer right after the hand) and just not having quite enough time to think everything through.
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:35 PM   #15773
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Some mistakes we need to sit down and walk through the hand again, either on the drive home or here or whatever. When we actually think through a reasonable range (or the range we had during the hand) and plug in the numbers, sometimes we just mathed wrong. Or we realize that one of our assumptions was wrong.

But there are a lot of smaller mistakes that we can see pretty quickly. Autopilot calls or bets that 5 minutes later seem wrong, or 10 seconds later when we're raised and we realize that we don't have a plan.
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Old 07-21-2016, 08:26 PM   #15774
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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One of the *few* things that random players seem to notice is folding the SB in a limped pot ... I've had them call me a nit immediately for that.
I'll complete at least 80% of the time in MW pots (I play 1/2) for just this reason. Outside of these hands, my VPIP is about 15%, so I'm already nitty by live lol standards. Making a show of, "Alright kids, let's play some cards!" is worth a buck every now and then.
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Old 07-21-2016, 08:45 PM   #15775
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

FWIW, I think I get in a lot of +EV spots because fish see me as one of their own, and that means playing with a lot of leaks

And you gotta remember that if everyone makes the same mistakes, you're not actually losing any money.
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