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Old 07-14-2016, 01:43 PM   #15726
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My guess is that most people make about the same amount of mistakes on their upswings as they do their downswings, and yet they typically go unnoticed / unquestioned during the upswings.

GjustaguessG
They make more mistakes on the upswing. That's why downswings are good for the soul. They cleanse you. If they don't kill you, you come out stronger.
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Old 07-14-2016, 02:19 PM   #15727
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
They make more mistakes on the upswing. That's why downswings are good for the soul. They cleanse you. If they don't kill you, you come out stronger.
Truer words haven't been typed
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Old 07-14-2016, 02:51 PM   #15728
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Somewhere between 99-100% of players think their true expected WR moving forward is greater than their actual past results, regardless of sample size. Ironically, there may be a correlation between extreme delusion in this area and future success.
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Old 07-14-2016, 03:19 PM   #15729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My guess is that most people make about the same amount of mistakes on their upswings as they do their downswings, and yet they typically go unnoticed / unquestioned during the upswings.

GjustaguessG
Maybe. Maybe not. I lean not.

When they're running well and winning, most players seem to be more calm and content. They seem to make better decisions and think more clearly.

But when things go badly and they take a series of tough beats ... Some go on insane monkey tilt trying to make up for losses and become spewy. Others go into a shell and try to minimize their losses (by raising too much to protect, or folding too much to save chips), which murders their winrates.

I don't see "winners tilt" being as big of a potential leak.

Although I do agree with the sentiment that a downswing really helps force us to analyze our play.
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Old 07-14-2016, 03:21 PM   #15730
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The downswing part is what I meant was true
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Old 07-14-2016, 04:27 PM   #15731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sure, the biggest leak of them all, tilt, is encountered mostly at the downswing level. A tilted roulette wheel cannot be overcome though. It can only be avoided.

I was speaking more towards fundamental mistakes. Bet/calling too much, check/calling too much, not betting turn enough, playing AJo UTG, not 3betting enough, 3 betting too much, playing OOP too much, not paying attention to stack depth, not making love to your button and hating every other position, etc.

You get away with a lot of this stuff on upswings. You think AJo is a fine open UTG. You think ATo is a fine 3b from the small blind. And you run good. You flop J23r with your AJ. You flop K62 in your 3bet pot. And you think you're awesome.

Phil Galfond, way way back, said that most really good players had to run good in the beginning, then run bad. That was the perfect combination to make you confident/hungry enough to want to continue, but cautious enough to self analyze and desire to learn.

Last edited by Avaritia; 07-14-2016 at 04:36 PM. Reason: I still try to beat the crooked wheel
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:35 PM   #15732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just left Vegas. I was stunned at the lack of 2/5 games during the daytime. Since I was with my wife who wanted to go to dinner and shows in the evening, I played mostly during the day and I had to play mostly 1/3. I'll say this, anyplace that has 1/3 and 2/5, the 1/3 game is a gold mine. Once the 2/5 games started up I just stayed where I was.

1/2 and 1/3 so far in 2016

Just shy of 100 hours.....$64.65 / hr. Surely not sustainable but damn, those people do not know what they are doing.
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Old 07-16-2016, 10:16 PM   #15733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Congrats Mike, thats a nice little score. Where did you play?
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Old 07-16-2016, 11:53 PM   #15734
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Congrats Mike, that's a nice little score. Where did you play?
Not all of those nearly 100 hrs were this trip. Ive played some other places in 2016 that didnt have a 2/5 going as well.

This Vegas trip I played:

1/3 and 2/5 at Aria
1/2 and 2/5 at Caesars
2/5 at Bellagio

I'll be at Graton just north of SF tomorrow.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:30 PM   #15735
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@MikeStarr let us know how graton is. I play at diff casinos in the Bay Area, and always wanted to go to graton. I hear the games are great.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:45 PM   #15736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm on a 8bi downswing.



Over 3 sessions.


I had to fold JJ pre.

I win the blinds with QQ twice.

Brutal.


Mostly tilt.
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Old 07-17-2016, 07:49 PM   #15737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Didn't see AA/KK for 8 hours the other day, finally get KK on the button, the stickiest table in the world decides now is the time to nit it up and I take down the blinds with it.
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Old 07-17-2016, 09:54 PM   #15738
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Didn't see AA/KK for 8 hours the other day, finally get KK on the button, the stickiest table in the world decides now is the time to nit it up and I take down the blinds with it.
Haven't seen either for last 17 hours. Winrate, somehow, still skyrocketing.
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Old 07-17-2016, 10:02 PM   #15739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm on a 8bi downswing.



Over 3 sessions.


I had to fold JJ pre.

I win the blinds with QQ twice.

Brutal.


Mostly tilt.
Sorry to hear about your downswing, but TY for posting. I've been BE for 2 months, and it's killing me. There was another thread about a podcast, some pro I never heard of (Matt Berkey?) talking about losing 22 of 25 sessions. It helps me to realize that players way better than me have suffered far worse than I have (so far).
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:23 PM   #15740
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Haven't seen either for last 17 hours. Winrate, somehow, still skyrocketing.
I ran good that session TBH, you don't really need AA when QQ repeatedly flops top set.
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:46 AM   #15741
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Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
@MikeStarr let us know how graton is. I play at diff casinos in the Bay Area, and always wanted to go to graton. I hear the games are great.
The poker room itself is smallish but nice. Probably 20-25 tables. Everything seemed to run petty smooth. People came and went faster than Ive seen in a while though and we played short handed quite a bit.

I ran really bad and missed just about every flop. I played for 3 hours and didnt flop a pair one single time after raising preflop. Lost $350.

I would say overall the players seemed average. Nothing special and not terrible either.

The only hand of any size at all that I won was a bluff. I raised to $25 with AJs after 2 limpers. SB and one limper called. Flop came 822 and the SB led out $40 into the $80 pot. The limper folded. I raised to $120 and the SB folded.
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Old 07-18-2016, 08:21 AM   #15742
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
Sorry to hear about your downswing, but TY for posting. I've been BE for 2 months, and it's killing me. There was another thread about a podcast, some pro I never heard of (Matt Berkey?) talking about losing 22 of 25 sessions. It helps me to realize that players way better than me have suffered far worse than I have (so far).
Berkey is one of the sickest out, get to know that name.
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:54 PM   #15743
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm on a 8bi downswing.

Over 3 sessions.

I had to fold JJ pre.

I win the blinds with QQ twice.

Brutal.

Mostly tilt.
Seems standard. Still sucks though.


Alright winrate peeps ... I've got a question about tracking software.

I've used the website "Check your bets .com" to record my session data since 2008. It's been handy in that I can access it from anywhere, iPad, on vacation, at work, whatever. Makes decently good graphs and filters, but I download the spreadsheet data periodically to do more detailed analysis (the figures I've shared previously).

The problem is that if the site ever goes away, or has problems (like in the last month or so), I'm going to need another solution. My first thought is to just take my last export and switch to keeping everything in an Excel sheet. But that's a little clunky still.

So do any of you use any software that is *NOT* tied to a smartphone but is more elaborate/specialized than Excel? My phone is an idiot and I'd prefer to continue being a life nit and avoid paying for a data plan.

Last edited by Angrist; 07-18-2016 at 02:55 PM. Reason: Forum stripped URL, manually removed
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Old 07-18-2016, 03:45 PM   #15744
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Seems standard. Still sucks though.


Alright winrate peeps ... I've got a question about tracking software.

I've used the website "Check your bets .com" to record my session data since 2008. It's been handy in that I can access it from anywhere, iPad, on vacation, at work, whatever. Makes decently good graphs and filters, but I download the spreadsheet data periodically to do more detailed analysis (the figures I've shared previously).

The problem is that if the site ever goes away, or has problems (like in the last month or so), I'm going to need another solution. My first thought is to just take my last export and switch to keeping everything in an Excel sheet. But that's a little clunky still.

So do any of you use any software that is *NOT* tied to a smartphone but is more elaborate/specialized than Excel? My phone is an idiot and I'd prefer to continue being a life nit and avoid paying for a data plan.
I use poker income installed on my Android phone. Then periodically I export my database to cloud backup to do more detailed analysis and to have the data stored somewhere else.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Old 07-18-2016, 03:53 PM   #15745
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Seems standard. Still sucks though.


Alright winrate peeps ... I've got a question about tracking software.

I've used the website "Check your bets .com" to record my session data since 2008. It's been handy in that I can access it from anywhere, iPad, on vacation, at work, whatever. Makes decently good graphs and filters, but I download the spreadsheet data periodically to do more detailed analysis (the figures I've shared previously).

The problem is that if the site ever goes away, or has problems (like in the last month or so), I'm going to need another solution. My first thought is to just take my last export and switch to keeping everything in an Excel sheet. But that's a little clunky still.

So do any of you use any software that is *NOT* tied to a smartphone but is more elaborate/specialized than Excel? My phone is an idiot and I'd prefer to continue being a life nit and avoid paying for a data plan.


Poker Dominator is web based. I don't have it on my phone
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Old 07-18-2016, 05:29 PM   #15746
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Poker Dominator is web based. I don't have it on my phone

I know it is free, but god damn that website looks so dated.
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Old 07-18-2016, 07:16 PM   #15747
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Seems standard. Still sucks though.


Alright winrate peeps ... I've got a question about tracking software.

I've used the website "Check your bets .com" to record my session data since 2008. It's been handy in that I can access it from anywhere, iPad, on vacation, at work, whatever. Makes decently good graphs and filters, but I download the spreadsheet data periodically to do more detailed analysis (the figures I've shared previously).

The problem is that if the site ever goes away, or has problems (like in the last month or so), I'm going to need another solution. My first thought is to just take my last export and switch to keeping everything in an Excel sheet. But that's a little clunky still.

So do any of you use any software that is *NOT* tied to a smartphone but is more elaborate/specialized than Excel? My phone is an idiot and I'd prefer to continue being a life nit and avoid paying for a data plan.


Use this as an excuse to learn excel better. without ever seeing what web based options there are, I'm pretty confident in saying that excel is more powerful 100% of the time vs free options
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Old 07-18-2016, 07:44 PM   #15748
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Eh. I'm an engineer and plenty familiar with Excel. Between that and the Matlab stuff I've already written I've probably got everything that I'd ever need for analysis. But I don't really care if one of the web based options is "less powerful" as it's still more than sufficient. I just really want something that I can access from other computers/iPad when I travel without a lot of hassle.

The one I've been using is great and I plan on continuing to use it. I'm just looking for alternatives in case I need to switch.
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Old 07-19-2016, 03:57 PM   #15749
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Winrate update for July so far:

42.2 hours this month, +$1045 for a solid $24.78/hr

A couple of good sessions where things went well, and a bunch of essentially break-even sessions with less than +-$100 either way.

Almost makes up for a 60.5 hour -$975 June (-$16.13/hr).
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Old 07-19-2016, 04:32 PM   #15750
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

played 2 hours only this week. had a pretty good winrate still...
http://imgur.com/NuvNWj9
http://imgur.com/199sLWN
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