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Old 07-14-2016, 04:52 AM   #15701
ATsai
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
...BR is approaching 30k and my game mix will likely be 60% 1/2 and 1/3 and 40% 2/5 until I get it over 50k. Way more respect for BRM going forward (as a full-time player).
You are definitely over-adjusting by being too nitty with BRM going forward.

You can easily play 2/5 NL 100% of the time now. In fact, you should be playing the occasignal juicy 5/10 NL or 10/10 NL game too when you find a good lineup..

When you have improved your game even more than you already have, you will understand that you are more than sufficiently rolled to play a mix of mostly 2/5 NL and occasionally bigger games. It just doesn't feel that way now because your confidence was shot by that nasty run of negative variance earlier this year.
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:21 AM   #15702
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



Can someone help me understand the Standard Deviation p/h stat? What does it mean and what is considered good?
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Old 07-14-2016, 06:19 AM   #15703
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I'm as nitty as they come re bankrolls, and I think that's pretty extreme.
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Old 07-14-2016, 08:13 AM   #15704
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
You are definitely over-adjusting by being too nitty with BRM going forward.

You can easily play 2/5 NL 100% of the time now. In fact, you should be playing the occasignal juicy 5/10 NL or 10/10 NL game too when you find a good lineup..

When you have improved your game even more than you already have, you will understand that you are more than sufficiently rolled to play a mix of mostly 2/5 NL and occasionally bigger games. It just doesn't feel that way now because your confidence was shot by that nasty run of negative variance earlier this year.
such bad advice
you guys have no idea about variance.
keep on doing a good job op
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Old 07-14-2016, 08:17 AM   #15705
javale mc g
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MTT rule of thumb is 100 buyins, so 1 Million for standard bankroll management.
wonder where you got that rule of thumb from since it´s totally wrong. esp in a 6k playing field.
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Old 07-14-2016, 08:27 AM   #15706
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You've got that right.



I'm pretty sure you don't need $200k bankroll to take a shot at the main event. Really, this shouldn't be a bankroll decision.



Actually it does appear that winning 1st is like winning the lottery. If you bought $10,000 in mega millions tickets your odds of winning would be 1 in 25,889. Sure, this is 4 times more daunting than 1 out of 6500 main event players but the payday is generally way higher than 4 times what the main event champ gets.

But yeah, the Main Event pays out to a lot more people, so it's easier to get a good payday without winning. In Mega Millions the only other big payday is matching 5 out of 5 numbers without the mega ball for $1million. Your odds of hitting that would only be 1 out of 1849 (if you invested $10k).

Are people saying the main event is a bad investment these days? Sure seems like a ton of pros in the field. I was thinking about playing this every year but maybe I'd be better off playing a WPT or WSOP circuit every year instead...or maybe poker is dead.
Presumably, a decent player is better then 1/(N entrants) to win the ME. So really an MTT is massively better then a lottery ticket.

But does your MTT EV/hr. beat your cash EV/hr.? That is the question.

My guess is that if you cash around 30% of MTTs played, unless you are charging MU, you're better off playing cash.

Ultimately, play specifically good payout MTTs to win. MillyMaker, Colossus, Goliath, Venetian DS ME, etc. Relatively low BI large fields of average- players.
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Old 07-14-2016, 08:28 AM   #15707
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wonder where you got that rule of thumb from since it´s totally wrong. esp in a 6k playing field.
Explain.
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:36 AM   #15708
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tbh the inverse is true where you are better off playing the same buyin you would at the WSOP but with smaller fields like 300 ish. No real correlation between ROI and field size.
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:42 AM   #15709
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Call me crazy, but where I'm from $29/hr > $24/hr. I'd think I mix of those games would be reasonable at least until the bigger game has the higher WR. Especially when you consider that the bigger game is being game selected and avoided when lineups aren't favorable. (Agree with the nitty BRM comments tho)
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:51 AM   #15710
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Tbh the inverse is true where you are better off playing the same buyin you would at the WSOP but with smaller fields like 300 ish. No real correlation between ROI and field size.
I'm saying to maximize the size of 1st place.

Optimal strategy (taking some liberty here, LDO) is to minimize the BI and simultaneously maximize the size of 1st place.
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Old 07-14-2016, 10:45 AM   #15711
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Call me crazy, but where I'm from $29/hr > $24/hr. I'd think I mix of those games would be reasonable at least until the bigger game has the higher WR. Especially when you consider that the bigger game is being game selected and avoided when lineups aren't favorable. (Agree with the nitty BRM comments tho)


Is $100-200/ week really enough to warrant the stress that's involved with playing higher stakes?
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:09 AM   #15712
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Just dug myself out of a 650 hour break even
Gross, but congrats on digging yourself out of it.

As for comments on your BR nittyness, I would think that having a clear head / being in a good frame of mind is pretty important and having a nitty BR would probably aid in this.

GgoodluckG
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:09 AM   #15713
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Is $100-200/ week really enough to warrant the stress that's involved with playing higher stakes?
An objective for a young or inexperienced pro should be a relatively constant search for where their biggest edge exists along with the associated variance.
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:10 AM   #15714
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Johnny: He's currently winning more at 1/2. You and suited 4s are in agreement I think.

Something something sample size though. Wasn't he in here posting that he won 5 million bbs in a single 1 2 session recently? If that was at 2 5 instead then that wr would likely be much higher.

But yeah he should just play whatever he's comfortable with. If he's not comfortable due to the size of his br though then he's gotta fix that because he's got more than enough imo.
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Old 07-14-2016, 11:52 AM   #15715
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50 buyins per level you play at is a good brm johnny and is exactly the brm i follow and always advise others to follow.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:05 PM   #15716
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I should probably clarify my previous comment a little since there may be some confusion. When I say my 2/5 WR fell I more accurately meant my "loss rate" since that is all that happened. I know session winning % doesn't mean much in isolation, but for sake of argument across 180 sessions (1200 hours) at 1/2, 1/3, 2/5 and 10/10 I had a session win % of ~67% and they are pretty constant across all stakes.

During the downswing that began with a 10/10 cooler and continued unabated into 2/5 the results are sickening. Over my last 27 sessions at 2/5 I have won 10/27 (37%) for -$11,050 over 150 hours or -$73.4/hr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
Call me crazy, but where I'm from $29/hr > $24/hr. I'd think I mix of those games would be reasonable at least until the bigger game has the higher WR. Especially when you consider that the bigger game is being game selected and avoided when lineups aren't favorable. (Agree with the nitty BRM comments tho)
That is correct, but those are just my actual observed results and not what I believe to be my hourly expectation. I believe my 2/5 hourly expectation is significantly greater than my 1/2 expectation, the problem is my observed results at 2/5 over the last few months have been a variance ****storm.

Quote:
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Is $100-200/ week really enough to warrant the stress that's involved with playing higher stakes?
$100-200 may not be, but $1000 certainly would be. If I think my full-time 1/2 expectation is around $30/hr and full-time 2/5 >$50/hr then I should gravitate towards 2/5. Eventually there will be no alternative to putting in more hours at 2/5, but when running terrible for months on end I'd rather just stock the coffers with the easier and lower variance money.

It's hard to justify full-time hours at 2/5 when running at a nearly -$75/hr clip. But what I can do is continually build the BR with a nice game mix and when I finally ride out the negative variance wave at 2/5 be on extremely solid footing moving forward and hopefully never have to go through the misery again that was a full BR rebuild at 1/2 and 1/3.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:21 PM   #15717
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Call me negative nelly but I dont see any way possible that a guy who had a 650 hr break even streak has an expected win rate of $50/hr playing 2/5. I know variance is a *****, but someone with that big of an edge should NEVER go that long breaking even.

Something is/was wrong during that streak.
1) Trying to win too many pots by running over the table with a horrible image?
2) Trying to win every big pot?
3) Calling too many river bets because you cant believe you have second best hand again?
4) Too loose preflop?
5) Too many semibluffs with draws?

It could be any number of reasons, but I bet if you had just tightened up and let the game come to you, results wouldve been much different.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:30 PM   #15718
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Call me negative nelly but I dont see any way possible that a guy who had a 650 hr break even streak has an expected win rate of $50/hr playing 2/5.
Negative Nelly, please work on your reading comprehension as it was made abundantly clear. Lose 15k+ very quickly at 10/10 and 2/5 and grind it back at 1/2 while still losing your 2/5 shots. That's how you break even for 650 hours when only 150 of those hours were spent at 2/5.

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I know variance is a *****, but someone with that big of an edge should NEVER go that long breaking even.
I don't think you do know. I've seen your graph and it's clear you have never experienced a prolonged stretch of negative variance.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:32 PM   #15719
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Call me negative nelly but I dont see any way possible that a guy who had a 650 hr break even streak has an expected win rate of $50/hr playing 2/5.
If I recall correctly (???), Duke recently (within 2 months?) posted a giraffe / stats with fairly impressive overall results that included a decent breakeven period.

See post#14598, was a ~300 hour breakeven stretch and a ~500 hour of below minimum wage.

G650hoursain't****,imoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 07-14-2016 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:46 PM   #15720
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Welcome to the club Johnny.

Those long stretches of breakeven or slightly negative running really suck. I've discussed this ITT a couple of times before (https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...l#post49452424). And while my overall winrate is less impressive than I'd like it to be, I haven't seen many similarly large samples. It's easy to find a 500 hour sample that supports whatever story you'd like to tell. Although as a rec player that takes me about a year to cover. At least you're getting that volume in over less than half the time, which helps some mentally.


A long stretch like that is rarely *entirely* just variance. But it is still very possible to make the right decisions for 200 hours and just get reamed from behind every time you're in a big pot.
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Old 07-14-2016, 12:54 PM   #15721
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A long stretch like that is rarely *entirely* just variance.
My guess is that most people make about the same amount of mistakes on their upswings as they do their downswings, and yet they typically go unnoticed / unquestioned during the upswings.

GjustaguessG
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Old 07-14-2016, 01:01 PM   #15722
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But does your MTT EV/hr. beat your cash EV/hr.? That is the question.
The alternative to playing MTTs for me is not playing cash though. It's sitting on the beach drinking margaritas.


Quote:
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Call me negative nelly but I dont see any way possible that a guy who had a 650 hr break even streak has an expected win rate of $50/hr playing 2/5.
Didn't you know? Everyone that posts here thinks they can win 10bbs+/hr.
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Old 07-14-2016, 01:12 PM   #15723
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650 BE hours equates to what, 20k hands? Definitely a standard stretch online. Live is kinda weird due to dealing with many more knuckledraggers. But from personal experience it seems entirely plausible...
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Old 07-14-2016, 01:30 PM   #15724
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650 hr break even totally plausible for a "winner".

(I'd say its more like 15,000-18,000 hands.)
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Old 07-14-2016, 01:40 PM   #15725
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@johnnybuz

Give up 1/2, you have enough for 2/5
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