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Old 07-06-2016, 01:12 AM   #15651
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Anyone, ever, that actually tells you their wr in a poker room is lying. I've told 1 person, one.

The guys that are in the top 10% just smile and say "I play this game for fun man, I don't track it"

Everyone else is under 500 hours and on life heaters, or they are flat out lying, or, most likely, both.

I was north of $60/hr first 1K hours and a smidge under $40/hr next 1K hours. I've said it before and I'll say it again. If you are making more than $15/hr playing this game over 1K hours you are crushing it. You are making decent side income playing a card game ffs. Accept it, be happy, and if you want to improve your WR, bet/fold more. If you are already bet/folding a lot, bet/fold more.
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Old 07-06-2016, 01:32 AM   #15652
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Curious how many 2/5 hrs over 3 yrs if you don't mind me asking.
i played 1/2 on a micro bankroll after BF for 3 years and the 27 per hour was what i calculated for a 6 month period before i got lazy and stopped keeping track. I played roughly 60 hours per week.

I played 2/5 for about 5 months in vegas and made 74/hour.

I came home and didnt play for a year, started playing again and crushed 2/5 for 50k in the first 5 months and now play PLO. I know i ran sick but the game is beatable for 15 bbs per hour.

Incidentally, i played 15 hours of 2/5 during my last session for the hell of it and lost 3500 so even a 6 month sample size isnt very large. It prob reduced my win rate by ten bucks

That being said, i have a friend who keeps track religiously who made 28/hour at 1/2 for 3 years and is now making 85 at 2/5 sample size 1 year
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Old 07-06-2016, 08:49 AM   #15653
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i played 1/2 on a micro bankroll after BF for 3 years and the 27 per hour was what i calculated for a 6 month period before i got lazy and stopped keeping track. I played roughly 60 hours per week.

I played 2/5 for about 5 months in vegas and made 74/hour.

I came home and didnt play for a year, started playing again and crushed 2/5 for 50k in the first 5 months and now play PLO. I know i ran sick but the game is beatable for 15 bbs per hour.

Incidentally, i played 15 hours of 2/5 during my last session for the hell of it and lost 3500 so even a 6 month sample size isnt very large. It prob reduced my win rate by ten bucks

That being said, i have a friend who keeps track religiously who made 28/hour at 1/2 for 3 years and is now making 85 at 2/5 sample size 1 year
Proof or it didnt happen
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Old 07-06-2016, 11:05 AM   #15654
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
And you guys all know so much about [the inability to attain] high winrates because....?
I mean, this is a good point: I don't want to be the guy who can't break 100 at golf saying that therefore it can't be done. The thing is, I see people break 100 at golf *all the time*; on TV, every time I golf with friends, etc. Just cuz I can't do it doesn't mean I don't believe it can't be done, cuz I've seen enough evidence to easily convince me of this.

But where's the evidence for these unicorn winrates? Obviously pretty difficult to dig thru a zillion pages of this thread, but I can't immediately recall any unicorn winrates posted over a significant non-lol sample size. Which of course is immediately answered with crushing players move up / crushing players don't post / etc. Still, the burden of proof is on those who claim sustainable unicorn winrates are attainable.

And like someone else said, a lot of my opinions are based on the game I play in (which might be in a different stage than your game) as well as a realistic (perhaps pessimistic?) view of what I (with my skill set) think I can reasonably accomplish in that game. Your game / your view of your skill set might be different, but it's not going to be like 4x different.

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Old 07-06-2016, 11:28 AM   #15655
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I agree with Avaritia.

I take 1/2 as a side, part time, recreational income because I have a full time job, and just play weekends.

After playing live at Foxwoods, and now Twin River, for 8+ years regularly (at least every other weekend), my running average is just about $19.00/hr, which I am fine with because of my style (classic TAG) and what poker is to me.
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Old 07-06-2016, 11:33 AM   #15656
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Originally Posted by Niarocci1986 View Post
I agree with Avaritia.

I take 1/2 as a side, part time, recreational income because I have a full time job, and just play weekends.

After playing live at Foxwoods, and now Twin River, for 8+ years regularly (at least every other weekend), my running average is just about $19.00/hr, which I am fine with because of my style (classic TAG) and what poker is to me.
$19/hr is a very good win rate playing 1/2, but if you were playing full time (which would mean lots of weekday daytime hours) you can bet your win rate would be closer to $12/hr.

That's one more reason nobody can make 15 BB/hr playing full time. If you only played weekends it might be possible for the very best players.
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Old 07-06-2016, 11:48 AM   #15657
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Sorry but Im not buying that you know people making more than $75/hr playing 2/5 full time.
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Show me someone with a win rate over $60/hr playing 2/5 full time and Ill change my mind about that also. Show me just one.
Most of them don't post on the forum, but you asked me to point you to just one so here he is: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ganza-1477607/

$76/hr over first 1500 hours. His bet in this thread was to hit $105/hr over 400 hours. The thread didn't post a conclusion but I can confirm that he lost that bet, but just barely. I believe he was at $100/hr at the end of the 400 hrs (but maybe it was $95/hr).

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Originally Posted by IMA View Post
FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28
The highest Vegas 1/2 winrate posted ITT is $40+

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Originally Posted by GrinningBuddha View Post
This seems an appropriate time to remind people that the average buyin is a much more important factor than the blinds of that game. I play in a 1-2 NL game with a $500 max and the average stack is generally ~$300, sometimes much deeper. Compare that to a 1-2 NL $200 max with an average stack of $150 and with all other factors being equal, I feel like the former game should be beatable for ~1.5x the winrate of the latter game.

tl;dr: Not all 1/2 or 2/5 games are built the same. Buyin matters a lot.
People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.


BTW, all of these topics have been covered ad nauseum ITT. People apparently don't like reading.
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Old 07-06-2016, 12:08 PM   #15658
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Don't think you're ever going to make $60 an hour by bet folding. Gonna have to just call it off and get there.
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Old 07-06-2016, 04:10 PM   #15659
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.
Absolutely. I feel like a winrate cap for my local game is in the neighborhood of $35/hr for elite players due to the fact that not everyone buys in max and many of the regs play a fairly nitty style that prevents them from losing too fast. Straddles to $5 are quite common, however.

My point remains that there's basically no chance any player could maintain >$30/hr at a 1/2 NL game with $200 max buyin whereas it's quite possible in the same game with a $500 max buyin. Blinds don't tell the whole story but as you point out, buyin is not the only factor either.
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Old 07-06-2016, 04:48 PM   #15660
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
$19/hr is a very good win rate playing 1/2, but if you were playing full time (which would mean lots of weekday daytime hours) you can bet your win rate would be closer to $12/hr.

That's one more reason nobody can make 15 BB/hr playing full time. If you only played weekends it might be possible for the very best players.

^Yes, I totally agree with this. I have gone on a good weekend run (like 8 in a row) where my winnings were around $250.00-300.00 for a 8-10 hour session, but that is not sustainable- even in the best circumstances consistently.

I have personally met several people who make $50-60k a year playing 1/2, at near 60 hours a week, but again, its a grind that makes the game almost unenjoyable.

Also, playing for your mortgage is a lot different than trying to win with money you can afford to lose (no matter how hard your trying). Paying the bills with poker is hard, very hard.
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:09 PM   #15661
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so 1/2 is unbeatable eh?
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:12 PM   #15662
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so 1/2 is unbeatable eh?
I don't think anyone has said anything close to this?

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Old 07-06-2016, 05:20 PM   #15663
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1/2 is only unbeatable if you have an ongoing prop bet with your friend that you have to pay him $10 everytime you have a suicidal thought while playing 1/2.
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:21 PM   #15664
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I don't think anyone has said anything close to this?

GcluelessNLnoobG
Well, Ava said that if you are making 15/hr you are crushing.

assuming this is in reference to 5$ games, my only conclusion is that a same 3bb/hr winrate at 1/2 of 6$, with a bigger rake effect, generally smaller stack sizes leads me to think this is being implied.
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:24 PM   #15665
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Most of them don't post on the forum, but you asked me to point you to just one so here he is: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ganza-1477607/

$76/hr over first 1500 hours. His bet in this thread was to hit $105/hr over 400 hours. The thread didn't post a conclusion but I can confirm that he lost that bet, but just barely. I believe he was at $100/hr at the end of the 400 hrs (but maybe it was $95/hr).



The highest Vegas 1/2 winrate posted ITT is $40+



People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.


BTW, all of these topics have been covered ad nauseum ITT. People apparently don't like reading.
I looked over the thread. Ill give the guy credit for being a crusher, but it was 2 years ago. Much different game back then and he disappeared off the 2+2 planet in Feb 2015 right after saying he would start updating more often so I have to wonder what happened to him.

Why do you think this guy can make $100/hr at 2/5 but nobody can make $50/hr at 1/2. That makes no sense. I know that nobody can do either, but your statement makes no sense.
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Old 07-06-2016, 06:13 PM   #15666
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Well, Ava said that if you are making 15/hr you are crushing.

assuming this is in reference to 5$ games, my only conclusion is that a same 3bb/hr winrate at 1/2 of 6$, with a bigger rake effect, generally smaller stack sizes leads me to think this is being implied.
Reading comprehension ftw
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Old 07-06-2016, 06:17 PM   #15667
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Reading comprehension ftw
Fuggin numbers man.

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Old 07-06-2016, 09:18 PM   #15668
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I looked over the thread. Ill give the guy credit for being a crusher, but it was 2 years ago. Much different game back then and he disappeared off the 2+2 planet in Feb 2015 right after saying he would start updating more often so I have to wonder what happened to him.
A few hundred thousand in tournament earnings is what happened to him. Last year he final tabled 3 straight HPT Main Events. This year he got 2nd in a WSOP Circuit Main Event. I would guess that he is crushing cash games from coast to coast.

Also, how do you know the games are so much different than they were 2 years ago? Are you a regular in the casino he was playing in?

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Why do you think this guy can make $100/hr at 2/5 but nobody can make $50/hr at 1/2. That makes no sense.
It doesn't make sense? Do you even math? Also, I never said he could make $100/hr at 2/5. We were discussing making over $75/hr at 2/5.
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Old 07-06-2016, 09:22 PM   #15669
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You said he had a bet going that he would make $105/hr at 2/5 over 400 hrs and he barely missed doing it.
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Old 07-06-2016, 10:33 PM   #15670
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A few hundred thousand in tournament earnings is what happened to him. Last year he final tabled 3 straight HPT Main Events. This year he got 2nd in a WSOP Circuit Main Event. I would guess that he is crushing cash games from coast to coast.

Also, how do you know the games are so much different than they were 2 years ago? Are you a regular in the casino he was playing in?

It doesn't make sense? Do you even math? Also, I never said he could make $100/hr at 2/5. We were discussing making over $75/hr at 2/5.
I thought those tourney scores only got him out of makeup. Still don't understand how/why someone with his (claimed) WR would need/want a backer for donkaments.

I was a reg at that casino and, though the games were soft, I'm still skeptical that anyone has a true expected WR of $75/hr.

Last edited by the glove; 07-06-2016 at 10:42 PM.
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Old 07-07-2016, 12:19 AM   #15671
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I thought those tourney scores only got him out of makeup. Still don't understand how/why someone with his (claimed) WR would need/want a backer for donkaments.
There are some pretty obvious reasons why most of the top tournament players in the world sell action, but you'd probably be better off finding out more about that in an MTT subforum.
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Old 07-07-2016, 08:50 AM   #15672
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Im no expert in tournament play but from my understanding, selling tourney action and being in makeup from staking are 2 totally different things.

If you sell some of your tourney action, you dont owe anyone anything if you dont cash.
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Old 07-07-2016, 01:09 PM   #15673
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Im no expert in tournament play but from my understanding, selling tourney action and being in makeup from staking are 2 totally different things.

If you sell some of your tourney action, you dont owe anyone anything if you dont cash.
Not necessarily true. You can sell some of your tourney action and give makeup to the investors in exchange for a higher % of yourself. Doesn't happen ever on 2+2 though.
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Old 07-07-2016, 01:52 PM   #15674
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If that guy from the post still plays at that same casino (I recognized the felt/chips), I think I know who he is. There's a guy that plays at that casino who is widely talked about as the best player in the room, and always has a monster stack at 2/5. We are talking stacks of $2000+, all but one time that I've seen him. I've also heard that he won $27000 in a 5/10 game that ran there once.
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Old 07-07-2016, 02:04 PM   #15675
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If that guy from the post still plays at that same casino (I recognized the felt/chips), I think I know who he is. There's a guy that plays at that casino who is widely talked about as the best player in the room, and always has a monster stack at 2/5. We are talking stacks of $2000+, all but one time that I've seen him. I've also heard that he won $27000 in a 5/10 game that ran there once.
Doubt it is the same player. A good friend of mine has been largely considered by the masses (as if their opinion actually matters) to be the best player in that room for years and is known for building the largest stacks. $27k sounds lol though....probably a slight stretch.
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