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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

07-06-2016 , 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Sorry but Im not buying that you know people making more than $75/hr playing 2/5 full time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Show me someone with a win rate over $60/hr playing 2/5 full time and Ill change my mind about that also. Show me just one.
Most of them don't post on the forum, but you asked me to point you to just one so here he is: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ganza-1477607/

$76/hr over first 1500 hours. His bet in this thread was to hit $105/hr over 400 hours. The thread didn't post a conclusion but I can confirm that he lost that bet, but just barely. I believe he was at $100/hr at the end of the 400 hrs (but maybe it was $95/hr).

Quote:
Originally Posted by IMA Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28
The highest Vegas 1/2 winrate posted ITT is $40+

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrinningBuddha Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
This seems an appropriate time to remind people that the average buyin is a much more important factor than the blinds of that game. I play in a 1-2 NL game with a $500 max and the average stack is generally ~$300, sometimes much deeper. Compare that to a 1-2 NL $200 max with an average stack of $150 and with all other factors being equal, I feel like the former game should be beatable for ~1.5x the winrate of the latter game.

tl;dr: Not all 1/2 or 2/5 games are built the same. Buyin matters a lot.
People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.


BTW, all of these topics have been covered ad nauseum ITT. People apparently don't like reading.
07-06-2016 , 12:08 PM
Don't think you're ever going to make $60 an hour by bet folding. Gonna have to just call it off and get there.
07-06-2016 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.
Absolutely. I feel like a winrate cap for my local game is in the neighborhood of $35/hr for elite players due to the fact that not everyone buys in max and many of the regs play a fairly nitty style that prevents them from losing too fast. Straddles to $5 are quite common, however.

My point remains that there's basically no chance any player could maintain >$30/hr at a 1/2 NL game with $200 max buyin whereas it's quite possible in the same game with a $500 max buyin. Blinds don't tell the whole story but as you point out, buyin is not the only factor either.
07-06-2016 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
$19/hr is a very good win rate playing 1/2, but if you were playing full time (which would mean lots of weekday daytime hours) you can bet your win rate would be closer to $12/hr.

That's one more reason nobody can make 15 BB/hr playing full time. If you only played weekends it might be possible for the very best players.

^Yes, I totally agree with this. I have gone on a good weekend run (like 8 in a row) where my winnings were around $250.00-300.00 for a 8-10 hour session, but that is not sustainable- even in the best circumstances consistently.

I have personally met several people who make $50-60k a year playing 1/2, at near 60 hours a week, but again, its a grind that makes the game almost unenjoyable.

Also, playing for your mortgage is a lot different than trying to win with money you can afford to lose (no matter how hard your trying). Paying the bills with poker is hard, very hard.
07-06-2016 , 05:09 PM
so 1/2 is unbeatable eh?
07-06-2016 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
so 1/2 is unbeatable eh?
I don't think anyone has said anything close to this?

GcluelessNLnoobG
07-06-2016 , 05:20 PM
1/2 is only unbeatable if you have an ongoing prop bet with your friend that you have to pay him $10 everytime you have a suicidal thought while playing 1/2.
07-06-2016 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I don't think anyone has said anything close to this?

GcluelessNLnoobG
Well, Ava said that if you are making 15/hr you are crushing.

assuming this is in reference to 5$ games, my only conclusion is that a same 3bb/hr winrate at 1/2 of 6$, with a bigger rake effect, generally smaller stack sizes leads me to think this is being implied.
07-06-2016 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Most of them don't post on the forum, but you asked me to point you to just one so here he is: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ganza-1477607/

$76/hr over first 1500 hours. His bet in this thread was to hit $105/hr over 400 hours. The thread didn't post a conclusion but I can confirm that he lost that bet, but just barely. I believe he was at $100/hr at the end of the 400 hrs (but maybe it was $95/hr).



The highest Vegas 1/2 winrate posted ITT is $40+



People aren't making $50/hr+ at 1/2 regardless of buyin. Sure, some games may play bigger but that's mostly due to straddles (blinds) rather than buyins. The most profitable 2/5 games I know of are $500/cap games. They are far more profitable than the deeper Vegas games.


BTW, all of these topics have been covered ad nauseum ITT. People apparently don't like reading.
I looked over the thread. Ill give the guy credit for being a crusher, but it was 2 years ago. Much different game back then and he disappeared off the 2+2 planet in Feb 2015 right after saying he would start updating more often so I have to wonder what happened to him.

Why do you think this guy can make $100/hr at 2/5 but nobody can make $50/hr at 1/2. That makes no sense. I know that nobody can do either, but your statement makes no sense.
07-06-2016 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Well, Ava said that if you are making 15/hr you are crushing.

assuming this is in reference to 5$ games, my only conclusion is that a same 3bb/hr winrate at 1/2 of 6$, with a bigger rake effect, generally smaller stack sizes leads me to think this is being implied.
Reading comprehension ftw
07-06-2016 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Reading comprehension ftw
Fuggin numbers man.

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07-06-2016 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I looked over the thread. Ill give the guy credit for being a crusher, but it was 2 years ago. Much different game back then and he disappeared off the 2+2 planet in Feb 2015 right after saying he would start updating more often so I have to wonder what happened to him.
A few hundred thousand in tournament earnings is what happened to him. Last year he final tabled 3 straight HPT Main Events. This year he got 2nd in a WSOP Circuit Main Event. I would guess that he is crushing cash games from coast to coast.

Also, how do you know the games are so much different than they were 2 years ago? Are you a regular in the casino he was playing in?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Why do you think this guy can make $100/hr at 2/5 but nobody can make $50/hr at 1/2. That makes no sense.
It doesn't make sense? Do you even math? Also, I never said he could make $100/hr at 2/5. We were discussing making over $75/hr at 2/5.
07-06-2016 , 09:22 PM
You said he had a bet going that he would make $105/hr at 2/5 over 400 hrs and he barely missed doing it.
07-06-2016 , 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
A few hundred thousand in tournament earnings is what happened to him. Last year he final tabled 3 straight HPT Main Events. This year he got 2nd in a WSOP Circuit Main Event. I would guess that he is crushing cash games from coast to coast.

Also, how do you know the games are so much different than they were 2 years ago? Are you a regular in the casino he was playing in?

It doesn't make sense? Do you even math? Also, I never said he could make $100/hr at 2/5. We were discussing making over $75/hr at 2/5.
I thought those tourney scores only got him out of makeup. Still don't understand how/why someone with his (claimed) WR would need/want a backer for donkaments.

I was a reg at that casino and, though the games were soft, I'm still skeptical that anyone has a true expected WR of $75/hr.

Last edited by the glove; 07-06-2016 at 10:42 PM.
07-07-2016 , 12:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the glove Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I thought those tourney scores only got him out of makeup. Still don't understand how/why someone with his (claimed) WR would need/want a backer for donkaments.
There are some pretty obvious reasons why most of the top tournament players in the world sell action, but you'd probably be better off finding out more about that in an MTT subforum.
07-07-2016 , 08:50 AM
Im no expert in tournament play but from my understanding, selling tourney action and being in makeup from staking are 2 totally different things.

If you sell some of your tourney action, you dont owe anyone anything if you dont cash.
07-07-2016 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Im no expert in tournament play but from my understanding, selling tourney action and being in makeup from staking are 2 totally different things.

If you sell some of your tourney action, you dont owe anyone anything if you dont cash.
Not necessarily true. You can sell some of your tourney action and give makeup to the investors in exchange for a higher % of yourself. Doesn't happen ever on 2+2 though.
07-07-2016 , 01:52 PM
If that guy from the post still plays at that same casino (I recognized the felt/chips), I think I know who he is. There's a guy that plays at that casino who is widely talked about as the best player in the room, and always has a monster stack at 2/5. We are talking stacks of $2000+, all but one time that I've seen him. I've also heard that he won $27000 in a 5/10 game that ran there once.
07-07-2016 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
If that guy from the post still plays at that same casino (I recognized the felt/chips), I think I know who he is. There's a guy that plays at that casino who is widely talked about as the best player in the room, and always has a monster stack at 2/5. We are talking stacks of $2000+, all but one time that I've seen him. I've also heard that he won $27000 in a 5/10 game that ran there once.
Doubt it is the same player. A good friend of mine has been largely considered by the masses (as if their opinion actually matters) to be the best player in that room for years and is known for building the largest stacks. $27k sounds lol though....probably a slight stretch.
07-07-2016 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Doubt it is the same player. A good friend of mine has been largely considered by the masses (as if their opinion actually matters) to be the best player in that room for years and is known for building the largest stacks. $27k sounds lol though....probably a slight stretch.
I didn't believe the 27k story, although there was word that everyone in the game was going north so whatever. It's a big rumor though. Does he wear sunglasses?
07-07-2016 , 02:25 PM
That player won $22k, not $27k. That is a different player than the player we were talking about (who has a couple PGC threads here).
07-11-2016 , 10:15 AM
With the main event coming up I thought it might be appropriate to ask. How big would your bankroll need to be to play in the WSOP main event? If you play NL professionaly, certainly you would have atleast a slight edge over the field? No? If you attempted 10 times in a row over the course of a decade, couldn't you expect to make more than your 100k investment just by binking a big score 1 time out of 10?
07-11-2016 , 10:26 AM
MTT rule of thumb is 100 buyins, so 1 Million for standard bankroll management.
07-11-2016 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
MTT rule of thumb is 100 buyins, so 1 Million for standard bankroll management.
If you are a cash game player and want to take a shot and only play 1 tournament a year, the main event, you dont need a million dollars.
07-11-2016 , 12:08 PM
100 BI is an antiquated benchmark. Depends on your ROI and tournament structure. Probably closer to 50 BI or half mil.

      
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