Exactly.

You all think it's unattainable simply because YOU can't do it. That is just atrocious logic.

Whats the maximum avg points per game someone can score in the NBA over a lifetime? I'll say its about 30 since only 2 guys in history have broken 30 over their lifetimes and they barely inched over the 30 point mark. Why cant it be 40? Who says it cant be?

Show me someone with 40 and Ill change my mind.

Show me someone with a win rate over $60/hr playing 2/5 full time and Ill change my mind about that also. Show me just one.

Of course we cant do it, because it cant be done. I play in a very large poker room and I know most of the best players. The ones I dont know, other people I am friendly with know them. Believe what you want but nobody is making $60/hr. I dont believe there's more than 2% of people playing 2/5 that can beat it for over $50/hr long term.

I haven't been able to get to 15bb/hour, don't know anyone else that has and have seen no credible evidence from anywhere.

I also think the sun sets every night, but if at some point in the future that doesn't happen I'll adjust my outlook accordingly.

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Define long term because...this guy <-------

$63.51/hr at 2/5



Unless you're saying 51 hours isn't long term because then I'd call you an idiot and stop reading.

I personally believe north of 60/hr is attainable by a top 1-2% which would be semi-pros playing up to 1kish hours in rooms with 2-5 /1k games with adequate player pools. A full time pro would be well within the top 1% or less IMO.

But I know pros claiming those winrates and even a cursory inspection of their life and circumstance makes it clear they are making well south of 120k/yr.

Ive seen their occasional 15k months and many many less stellar months.

Show me a 4-5k hour sample above that I'll be happy to change my opinion (which don't matter worth **** of course and of course I would not spend any effort trying to convince anyone of.... Well ...Beyond what I just did).

FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28

I made 80/hour at 2/5 1k BI and the best ive heard of is 85. People have much more money at 2/5 and will gamble more and the skill level is roughly the same, which is prob why the win rate is more than 2.5x 1/2

Curious how many 2/5 hrs over 3 yrs if you don't mind me asking.

How long ago was that and at what volume because from what I've heard that's not realistic.


At 2/5 I mean.


1/2 I totally buy it. I'm almost there myself.

Anyone, ever, that actually tells you their wr in a poker room is lying. I've told 1 person, one.

The guys that are in the top 10% just smile and say "I play this game for fun man, I don't track it"

Everyone else is under 500 hours and on life heaters, or they are flat out lying, or, most likely, both.

I was north of $60/hr first 1K hours and a smidge under $40/hr next 1K hours. I've said it before and I'll say it again. If you are making more than $15/hr playing this game over 1K hours you are crushing it. You are making decent side income playing a card game ffs. Accept it, be happy, and if you want to improve your WR, bet/fold more. If you are already bet/folding a lot, bet/fold more.

Haha Avi has golden advice.


Angrist and I just had a convo at the table with a guy who asked us how we track results and we both simultaneously lied through our teeth. I just remembered it and it's actually kind of hilarious.

I'd buy this. My fuzzy guess is between 12-14bb per hour is an upper 1/2 limit.


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Fairly solid poast IMO.

cAapparentlyima10%erAm

Guess I'm an idiot. Or you are a troll and I'm an idiot for responding. Damn I can't win. 😃

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Haha. As soon as that conversation started going that way I thought "how to I deflect this and turn it back to something non-poker related". Don't want that guy to start tracking and realize how much worse than he thinks he is he is.

I've had one guy in the poker room tell me his winrate at $1/2 ... and it was "$60k/yr". To which I had to try really hard not to laugh.

Obv GTO poasting strat

Steph Curry, though.

This seems an appropriate time to remind people that the average buyin is a much more important factor than the blinds of that game. I play in a 1-2 NL game with a $500 max and the average stack is generally ~$300, sometimes much deeper. Compare that to a 1-2 NL $200 max with an average stack of $150 and with all other factors being equal, I feel like the former game should be beatable for ~1.5x the winrate of the latter game.

tl;dr: Not all 1/2 or 2/5 games are built the same. Buyin matters a lot.

^^^^
Avatar lends credibility to poast IMO. Makes it seem extra wise.

+1000

i played 1/2 on a micro bankroll after BF for 3 years and the 27 per hour was what i calculated for a 6 month period before i got lazy and stopped keeping track. I played roughly 60 hours per week.

I played 2/5 for about 5 months in vegas and made 74/hour.

I came home and didnt play for a year, started playing again and crushed 2/5 for 50k in the first 5 months and now play PLO. I know i ran sick but the game is beatable for 15 bbs per hour.

Incidentally, i played 15 hours of 2/5 during my last session for the hell of it and lost 3500 so even a 6 month sample size isnt very large. It prob reduced my win rate by ten bucks

That being said, i have a friend who keeps track religiously who made 28/hour at 1/2 for 3 years and is now making 85 at 2/5 sample size 1 year

Proof or it didnt happen

I mean, this is a good point: I don't want to be the guy who can't break 100 at golf saying that therefore it can't be done. The thing is, I see people break 100 at golf *all the time*; on TV, every time I golf with friends, etc. Just cuz I can't do it doesn't mean I don't believe it can't be done, cuz I've seen enough evidence to easily convince me of this.

But where's the evidence for these unicorn winrates? Obviously pretty difficult to dig thru a zillion pages of this thread, but I can't immediately recall any unicorn winrates posted over a significant non-lol sample size. Which of course is immediately answered with crushing players move up / crushing players don't post / etc. Still, the burden of proof is on those who claim sustainable unicorn winrates are attainable.

And like someone else said, a lot of my opinions are based on the game I play in (which might be in a different stage than your game) as well as a realistic (perhaps pessimistic?) view of what I (with my skill set) think I can reasonably accomplish in that game. Your game / your view of your skill set might be different, but it's not going to be like 4x different.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG

I agree with Avaritia.

I take 1/2 as a side, part time, recreational income because I have a full time job, and just play weekends.

After playing live at Foxwoods, and now Twin River, for 8+ years regularly (at least every other weekend), my running average is just about $19.00/hr, which I am fine with because of my style (classic TAG) and what poker is to me.

$19/hr is a very good win rate playing 1/2, but if you were playing full time (which would mean lots of weekday daytime hours) you can bet your win rate would be closer to $12/hr.

That's one more reason nobody can make 15 BB/hr playing full time. If you only played weekends it might be possible for the very best players.