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Old 07-05-2016, 06:44 PM   #15626
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

And you guys all know so much about [the inability to attain] high winrates because....?
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:06 PM   #15627
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
And you guys all know so much about [the inability to attain] high winrates because....?
Speaking just for me, completely my own opinion based only my experiences regarding 1/2 win rate ceiling in my market.

I don't think it is possible to accurately quantify hourly win rate ceilings.



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Old 07-05-2016, 07:23 PM   #15628
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Relevant to what?
Relevant to what we're talking about, winrates/bankrolls/finances.

I mean 500+/Hr is possible at 1/2 in a small sample, but who cares and why does it matter?
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:25 PM   #15629
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
And you guys all know so much about [the inability to attain] high winrates because....?
The same way I know how to do anything else in life. Experience.
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:25 PM   #15630
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Relevant to the anything. You said $50 is attainable over a small sample size but the fact is that far greater is attainable over a small sample size. Why should that be discussed or considered at all? It shouldn't. Small samples mean nothing.
Oops beat me to it
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:35 PM   #15631
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Relevant to the anything. You said $50 is attainable over a small sample size but the fact is that far greater is attainable over a small sample size. Why should that be discussed or considered at all? It shouldn't. Small samples mean nothing.
dude be crushin dreams itt!
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:42 PM   #15632
YGOchamp
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Exactly.

You all think it's unattainable simply because YOU can't do it. That is just atrocious logic.
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:46 PM   #15633
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Whats the maximum avg points per game someone can score in the NBA over a lifetime? I'll say its about 30 since only 2 guys in history have broken 30 over their lifetimes and they barely inched over the 30 point mark. Why cant it be 40? Who says it cant be?

Show me someone with 40 and Ill change my mind.

Show me someone with a win rate over $60/hr playing 2/5 full time and Ill change my mind about that also. Show me just one.
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:49 PM   #15634
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Exactly.

You all think it's unattainable simply because YOU can't do it. That is just atrocious logic.
Of course we cant do it, because it cant be done. I play in a very large poker room and I know most of the best players. The ones I dont know, other people I am friendly with know them. Believe what you want but nobody is making $60/hr. I dont believe there's more than 2% of people playing 2/5 that can beat it for over $50/hr long term.
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Old 07-05-2016, 07:58 PM   #15635
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Exactly.

You all think it's unattainable simply because YOU can't do it. That is just atrocious logic.
I haven't been able to get to 15bb/hour, don't know anyone else that has and have seen no credible evidence from anywhere.

I also think the sun sets every night, but if at some point in the future that doesn't happen I'll adjust my outlook accordingly.

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Old 07-05-2016, 08:05 PM   #15636
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Define long term because...this guy <-------

$63.51/hr at 2/5



Unless you're saying 51 hours isn't long term because then I'd call you an idiot and stop reading.
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:13 PM   #15637
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I personally believe north of 60/hr is attainable by a top 1-2% which would be semi-pros playing up to 1kish hours in rooms with 2-5 /1k games with adequate player pools. A full time pro would be well within the top 1% or less IMO.

But I know pros claiming those winrates and even a cursory inspection of their life and circumstance makes it clear they are making well south of 120k/yr.

Ive seen their occasional 15k months and many many less stellar months.

Show me a 4-5k hour sample above that I'll be happy to change my opinion (which don't matter worth **** of course and of course I would not spend any effort trying to convince anyone of.... Well ...Beyond what I just did).
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:21 PM   #15638
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28

I made 80/hour at 2/5 1k BI and the best ive heard of is 85. People have much more money at 2/5 and will gamble more and the skill level is roughly the same, which is prob why the win rate is more than 2.5x 1/2
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:37 PM   #15639
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IMA View Post
FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28

I made 80/hour at 2/5 1k BI and the best ive heard of is 85. People have much more money at 2/5 and will gamble more and the skill level is roughly the same, which is prob why the win rate is more than 2.5x 1/2

Curious how many 2/5 hrs over 3 yrs if you don't mind me asking.
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:38 PM   #15640
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How long ago was that and at what volume because from what I've heard that's not realistic.


At 2/5 I mean.


1/2 I totally buy it. I'm almost there myself.
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:42 PM   #15641
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone, ever, that actually tells you their wr in a poker room is lying. I've told 1 person, one.

The guys that are in the top 10% just smile and say "I play this game for fun man, I don't track it"

Everyone else is under 500 hours and on life heaters, or they are flat out lying, or, most likely, both.

I was north of $60/hr first 1K hours and a smidge under $40/hr next 1K hours. I've said it before and I'll say it again. If you are making more than $15/hr playing this game over 1K hours you are crushing it. You are making decent side income playing a card game ffs. Accept it, be happy, and if you want to improve your WR, bet/fold more. If you are already bet/folding a lot, bet/fold more.
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Old 07-05-2016, 08:48 PM   #15642
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Haha Avi has golden advice.


Angrist and I just had a convo at the table with a guy who asked us how we track results and we both simultaneously lied through our teeth. I just remembered it and it's actually kind of hilarious.
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Old 07-05-2016, 09:06 PM   #15643
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Originally Posted by IMA View Post
FWIW

I played low stakes live poker in Vegas for 3.5 years and my win rate at 1/2 300 max BI was 27/hour and the best I ever heard of (from reliable sources) was 28
I'd buy this. My fuzzy guess is between 12-14bb per hour is an upper 1/2 limit.


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Old 07-05-2016, 09:06 PM   #15644
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Anyone, ever, that actually tells you their wr in a poker room is lying. I've told 1 person, one.

The guys that are in the top 10% just smile and say "I play this game for fun man, I don't track it"

Everyone else is under 500 hours and on life heaters, or they are flat out lying, or, most likely, both.

I was north of $60/hr first 1K hours and a smidge under $40/hr next 1K hours. I've said it before and I'll say it again. If you are making more than $15/hr playing this game over 1K hours you are crushing it. You are making decent side income playing a card game ffs. Accept it, be happy, and if you want to improve your WR, bet/fold more. If you are already bet/folding a lot, bet/fold more.

Fairly solid poast IMO.

cAapparentlyima10%erAm
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Old 07-05-2016, 09:07 PM   #15645
ZippyThePinhead
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Define long term because...this guy <-------

$63.51/hr at 2/5



Unless you're saying 51 hours isn't long term because then I'd call you an idiot and stop reading.
Guess I'm an idiot. Or you are a troll and I'm an idiot for responding. Damn I can't win. 😃

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Old 07-05-2016, 09:08 PM   #15646
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Haha. As soon as that conversation started going that way I thought "how to I deflect this and turn it back to something non-poker related". Don't want that guy to start tracking and realize how much worse than he thinks he is he is.

I've had one guy in the poker room tell me his winrate at $1/2 ... and it was "$60k/yr". To which I had to try really hard not to laugh.
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Old 07-05-2016, 09:08 PM   #15647
cAmmAndo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Guess I'm an idiot. Or you are a troll and I'm an idiot for responding. Damn I can't win. Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Obv GTO poasting strat
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Old 07-05-2016, 09:51 PM   #15648
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Steph Curry, though.
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Old 07-05-2016, 10:48 PM   #15649
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This seems an appropriate time to remind people that the average buyin is a much more important factor than the blinds of that game. I play in a 1-2 NL game with a $500 max and the average stack is generally ~$300, sometimes much deeper. Compare that to a 1-2 NL $200 max with an average stack of $150 and with all other factors being equal, I feel like the former game should be beatable for ~1.5x the winrate of the latter game.

tl;dr: Not all 1/2 or 2/5 games are built the same. Buyin matters a lot.
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:01 PM   #15650
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^^^^
Avatar lends credibility to poast IMO. Makes it seem extra wise.
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