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Old 07-05-2016, 10:30 AM   #15601
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
You've made posts before claiming a $60 hourly was possible at 1/2. I don't know you personally, but I think you tend to get over excited/ over confident when running well.
I stated $50/hour was attainable over small sample sizes game selecting very well, which I still believe.

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The flipside of that, is that you may be susceptible to tilt and poor play when running bad (as evidenced by your big downswing).
Wat?

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Before your big downswing, didn't you have a > $10k month at 2/5 earlier this year, while working a full time job? If you were crushing that hard and have a comfort in the game, I don't see how you could not play 2/5, and at the very least 1/3.
Yes I did. Two months in a row actually. But playing recreationally is is a completely different beast than playing for a living. Nurturing, protecting and growing the BR is my only concern at this point.

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I mean 1/2 is a gravy train and all, but dude, I really hope you didn't quit a good job to be grinding 1/2 for a living.
How could that possibly be your takeaway from my post?

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Don't let having a 3k night trick you, you're gonna have sh*t runbad and super long stretches of being card dead that you never thought was possible that brings your winrate way down back to the $20-25 an hour levels.
Thanks. I've never experienced any of this (aka my last 500 hours) over the nearly 2000 hours I have logged since 2015.
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Old 07-05-2016, 10:38 AM   #15602
MikeStarr
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You've never had long stretches of being card dead or long stretches of missing every flop?
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:06 AM   #15603
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Dude believes $50 is attainable at 1-2. How can smart people be so dumb sometimes?
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:21 AM   #15604
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
After a +3k session at 1/2 last night
Is this a deep game or just a 100bb max BI?

*If* it's a 100bb max BI, you ran hotter in that session than most likely any other 1/2 player in the history of time.

GImean,youknowthat,right?G
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:22 AM   #15605
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Define "short," cuz... this guy... <-------

$67/hr at 1/2.
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:26 AM   #15606
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Define "short," cuz... this guy... <-------

$67/hr at 1/2.
arnt we talkin bout a <100 hr sample tho?
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:33 AM   #15607
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lol sample size now comes in one session increments apparently
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:37 AM   #15608
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Is this a deep game or just a 100bb max BI?

*If* it's a 100bb max BI, you ran hotter in that session than most likely any other 1/2 player in the history of time.

GImean,youknowthat,right?G
It's a 150 BB cap. I did run super hot, probably the best I've ever run in a single session. There were difficult decisions to make with one pair hands in 250-500 BB pots however. But playing that session was a gentle reminder that the combination of run good, play good and bad competition allow for insane BB/hour winrates at 1/2 under ideal conditions.

There is a very clear skill gap between the 1/2 and 2/5 at my local watering hole though so the bell curve distribution for hourly expectation at 2/5 is much much wider which makes game selection all the more important. I guess that was the broader point I was trying to articulate.
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Old 07-05-2016, 11:46 AM   #15609
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I mean, I totally agree on table selection + run good + play good + bad competition is going to make for decent results; I just don't think the insane bb/hr are as sustainable as you think they are, even if the game remains great forever (which it is unlikely to as it looks like these sheep will eventually be slaughtered).

G+$3K@1/2NLisdefinitelyaunicornscorewhichyouwilllikelyneve reverseeagainbyanybody,imoG
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Old 07-05-2016, 12:20 PM   #15610
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arnt we talkin bout a <100 hr sample tho?
38 which is more than enough to confirm the greatest 1/2 winrate of all time.
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Old 07-05-2016, 12:22 PM   #15611
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
It's a 150 BB cap. I did run super hot, probably the best I've ever run in a single session. There were difficult decisions to make with one pair hands in 250-500 BB pots however. But playing that session was a gentle reminder that the combination of run good, play good and bad competition allow for insane BB/hour winrates at 1/2 under ideal conditions.

There is a very clear skill gap between the 1/2 and 2/5 at my local watering hole though so the bell curve distribution for hourly expectation at 2/5 is much much wider which makes game selection all the more important. I guess that was the broader point I was trying to articulate.

Running into the bottom of villain ranges in 500 BB pots is hardly variance free poker.
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Old 07-05-2016, 12:34 PM   #15612
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
38 which is more than enough to confirm the greatest 1/2 winrate of all time.
My 2/5 NL winrate is 15.03 bb/hr, confirmed GOAT at these stakes.

G95minutes,probably5morethanIreallyneededG
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Old 07-05-2016, 12:55 PM   #15613
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Running into the bottom of villain ranges in 500 BB pots is hardly variance free poker.
Clearly, but rarely will you have the opportunity to play a pot that big at 2/5 having the opponent drawing dead or nearly dead with only one pair, which goes back to the skill gap and the bad situations people will put themselves in at 1/2 which you simply don't see at the Parx 2/5, in my opinion of course.

Allow me to clarify "variance free" since it was the wrong choice of words.
  • At 1/2, you are constantly winning small to medium sized pots and chipping up. Very rarely will you see large all-in confrontations between two stacks >300 BB's deep, and if you do you should assume you have a huge edge in the pot. The variance you see in a 1/2 game differs dramatically from the variance you see in a 2/5 game. Not enough players are willing or able to play deep stacked that the swings you exhibit are much more mellow and manageable.
  • At 2/5, you are constantly chipping up, but so are the other strong players at the table. And the entire night becomes an arms race to accumulate 300-400 BB stacks that culminate in strong range vs. strong draw confrontations for 3k+ pots.

The fact of the matter is, it is very easy to recover from "not running well" at 1/2 because there are always new opportunities right around the corner to accumulate chips and you are almost never stacking off in huge pots without very nutted ranges. At 2/5, and this is based on my experience and the enormous downswing I went on, you simply have to "run well" in your huge all-in pots where you are a large +EV favorite or you are going to get crushed.

I had to bite my tongue and chuckle to myself when many people said they didn't think a 15k downswing was possible at 200 BB cap 2/5. It's very easy to run far below EV over a sample of 20 all-in hands. When those all-in hands happen to be massive 2k+ pots than 15k will sneak up on you before you can blink. It was a blistering quick two weeks in March for me but it was enough to convince me that anyone that thinks 20k is a sufficient BR to be playing 2/5 full-time is out of their ****ing mind.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 07-05-2016 at 01:00 PM.
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Old 07-05-2016, 01:42 PM   #15614
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When I see comments here that suggest that 1/2,1/3 is like printing money at $30/hr and relatively variance free, I laugh. Stddev when measured in BB isn't that different from 2-5 ime. However, obviously, stddev : WR ratio can be off the charts different.

If you play <=300 max BI poker, and over your last N hours this formula is true:
WR - 2 * SDHR / SQRT(N) > 30

where WR = $ winrate per hour
SDHR = $ stddev per hour

Congratulations! Very very few can do this, and it may only be attainable in certain rooms. But talk that it is easy, routine, or attainable for any solid player..... I remain skeptical.
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Old 07-05-2016, 01:58 PM   #15615
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When I see comments here that suggest that 1/2,1/3 is like printing money at $30/hr and relatively variance free, I laugh. Stddev when measured in BB isn't that different from 2-5 ime. However, obviously, stddev : WR ratio can be off the charts different.

If you play <=300 max BI poker, and over your last N hours this formula is true:
WR - 2 * SDHR / SQRT(N) > 30

where WR = $ winrate per hour
SDHR = $ stddev per hour

Congratulations! Very very few can do this, and it may only be attainable in certain rooms. But talk that it is easy, routine, or attainable for any solid player..... I remain skeptical.
can you speak fuggin english n not numburs plz
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Old 07-05-2016, 02:15 PM   #15616
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can you speak fuggin english n not numburs plz
If you play $300 buyin pokerz and beat the game for well over $30/hr for long enough that we can reasonably assume that your true edge was >$30/hr, you be a stud.
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Old 07-05-2016, 02:24 PM   #15617
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My 2/5 NL winrate is 15.03 bb/hr, confirmed GOAT at these stakes.

G95minutes,probably5morethanIreallyneededG
I actually know players with a higher winrate than that playing 2/5 full time.
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Old 07-05-2016, 03:08 PM   #15618
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[QUOTE=johnnyBuz;50360243]I stated $50/hour was attainable over small sample sizes game selecting very well, which I still believe.

A lot of things are attainable over a small sample. Why is this at all relevant?
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Old 07-05-2016, 03:23 PM   #15619
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I think my local 1/2 is beatable for $30/hr over a long period. You can't make huge mistakes and attain it but I think its possible.
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Old 07-05-2016, 04:25 PM   #15620
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I think my local 1/2 is beatable for $30/hr over a long period. You can't make huge mistakes and attain it but I think its possible.
I don't believe it is possible in my area - 100 miles radius around Washington DC

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Old 07-05-2016, 04:31 PM   #15621
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I don't believe it is possible in my area - 100 miles radius around Washington DC

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MDL drying up?
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Old 07-05-2016, 04:37 PM   #15622
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MDL drying up?
I think 1/2 at MDL is hugely profitable, just think $30/hour over big sample of hours eclipses the upper range of what is possible.

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Old 07-05-2016, 04:41 PM   #15623
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A lot of things are attainable over a small sample. Why is this at all relevant?
Relevant to what?
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Old 07-05-2016, 05:24 PM   #15624
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Relevant to the anything. You said $50 is attainable over a small sample size but the fact is that far greater is attainable over a small sample size. Why should that be discussed or considered at all? It shouldn't. Small samples mean nothing.
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Old 07-05-2016, 06:29 PM   #15625
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I actually know players with a higher winrate than that playing 2/5 full time.
Sorry but Im not buying that you know people making more than $75/hr playing 2/5 full time.
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