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Old 06-23-2016, 11:23 AM   #15451
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
This.

The notion of having an MTT role is silly unless you are specifically going to be a live MTT pro.

MTTs are mostly lottery tickets where hopefully you have better odds of winning vs. the other ticket holders.
Interestingly enough, tonight's NBA draft order was determined by a similar concept.

Basically your edge is in number of lottery balls you get to put in the machine and hopefully the commissioner draws your ball.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:24 AM   #15452
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Maybe you guys actually agreed or didn't understand my quick example, but that was the point. The quick calculation was to show that a decent player at $40/hr has very little incentive to play $500 tourney.

Plus isn't it pretty obvious that everyone plays to win, not to min-cash? But these donkaments are designed to have much bigger element of luck than in cash games, almost like a fail-safe way of making sure that even the worst players have a shot of winning to keep them coming back.
No, this is not obvious at all.

In fact, its almost certainly the opposite. Most MTT players are probably unaware that merely cashing (even if its not a min cash) is "not good enough".

Perilous to use personal contacts, but the majority of MTT donks I know are just there to cash.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:31 AM   #15453
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I guess it never actually crossed my mind that players would play tourney with intent of just cashing.

Anyhow, now we're talking about strat, not WR.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:36 AM   #15454
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Yeah - despite people echoing "playing to win" almost the entire field has no element of that strategy in their play. There is a huge relief to most when they make the money and many people simply give up after as if that was the goal. Given everyone plays buy ins much higher than sustainable, the min-cash in many ways their goal on top of entertainment. It is the same thing as saying "everyone at 1/3 is trying to win, right?". Even if "trying" was accurate, implementing it is the issue.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:38 AM   #15455
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There is a lot of EV in tournaments - still doesn't necessarily mean it is a better choice than cash games.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:39 AM   #15456
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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
While I agree we obv have to go deep there are weird decision points within a tournament that are at odds with our desire to say top 3. As an extreme example, on the stone bubble of some MTT and we have top 2 stack in the room. But big stack on our left is the bigger stack.

We open XX, he jams it in our face. It's possible to build a scenario that we should be folding almost our entire range in that spot even though calling and winning sets us up to go super deep.

As I type it realize may not be relevant to winrates but bottom line is play MTTs for a change of pace or when you think you have a significant edge but don't expect to realize that edge.
Calling and winning doesn't really set you up to go super deep tho.

Suppose you're chip leader with 100,000 in chips and there are multiple 40,000 chip stacks left at your table.

You stack one of the smaller stacks, and now your lead is 140,000 to 40,000.

But the next hand, one of the 40,000 chip stacks doubles up to 80,000, you now have another stack that can cripple you again.

Battling another big stack doesn't actually change your chances of going deep, unless it means you have such a big stack that there are no longer any stacks at your table that can cripple you in one hand.

Given your example, regardless of the bubble, the situation is still almost certainly a fold.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:53 AM   #15457
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Calling and winning doesn't really set you up to go super deep tho.

Suppose you're chip leader with 100,000 in chips and there are multiple 40,000 chip stacks left at your table.

You stack one of the smaller stacks, and now your lead is 140,000 to 40,000.

But the next hand, one of the 40,000 chip stacks doubles up to 80,000, you now have another stack that can cripple you again.

Battling another big stack doesn't actually change your chances of going deep, unless it means you have such a big stack that there are no longer any stacks at your table that can cripple you in one hand.

Given your example, regardless of the bubble, the situation is still almost certainly a fold.


Reading comprehension ftw. I said its possible to build a scenario...I was aware of all the items you posted
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:53 AM   #15458
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Guessing I've posted this before, and it's a little out-of-date, but I'm guessing still relevant with some interesting info.

http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...t_from=&ucat=&

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Old 06-23-2016, 12:43 PM   #15459
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Guessing I've posted this before, and it's a little out-of-date, but I'm guessing still relevant with some interesting info.

http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-jo...t_from=&ucat=&

GcluelessMTTnoobG
spreadsheet is fantastic

chainsaw with a rock solid -57% roi
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:53 PM   #15460
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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spreadsheet is fantastic

chainsaw with a rock solid -57% roi
makes up for it with his slot winnings tho
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:55 PM   #15461
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Also interesting how the guy with the top cashing percentage (30%) was an overall loser.

Gtoughgig,imoG
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:57 PM   #15462
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And also interesting how so many well known names were also big overall losers, nothing that was really mentioned by Mike & Vince on the broadcasts; nope, they were just all fantastic poker players.

Gthepokerworldissofullof****,imoG
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:37 PM   #15463
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Also interesting how the guy with the top cashing percentage (30%) was an overall loser.

Gtoughgig,imoG
Seems pretty simple to me.

If you cash 30% of the time, and the averge cash is min-ish and you get 2x your buyin, then

N = number of entries
$ = average entry fee
W = number of wins = 0.3 * N
L = number of losses = 0.7 * N

EV = $ * ((2 * 0.3 * N) - (0.7 * N))

EV = $ * (0.6*N - 0.7*N)

EV = -0.1*N*$
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:45 PM   #15464
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol, awesome!

My 2016 1/3 NL giraffe looks pretty similar to your 1/2 NL: a dip, a rungood, and now ~flatlining, over about the same amount of hours (although half as many sessions, lol).

Ganyplansforthe$1?G
I was going to take it to a local hooker, as is tradition for big wins. But that probably won't even get me a "cup and squeeze".


In the last year or two I haven't had the kind of time to sit on a weekend for 6-8 hours and just play often. So I'm playing 2-4 hour sessions in a local game on weekdays after work mostly. Also less time to read strategy books or "study"


One thing that I've been thinking about recently is how weird a session that mirrors a normal winrate is. If you play 4 hours, nothing of any big consequence happens, and you leave up $75 ... it doesn't (always) even feel like much of a win. Even though that's an almost $20/hr clip and a decent rate. It's the big swingy sessions where we're up or down a BI in 2 hours that seem to make an impact on our perception of how things are going Anyone else notice this?
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:06 PM   #15465
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spreadsheet is fantastic



chainsaw with a rock solid -57% roi

Bad structures ldo
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:06 PM   #15466
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
One thing that I've been thinking about recently is how weird a session that mirrors a normal winrate is. If you play 4 hours, nothing of any big consequence happens, and you leave up $75 ... it doesn't (always) even feel like much of a win. Even though that's an almost $20/hr clip and a decent rate. It's the big swingy sessions where we're up or down a BI in 2 hours that seem to make an impact on our perception of how things are going Anyone else notice this?
Yes, I think about it all the time. After a 5 hour session, $100 at 1/2 feels like nothing, $250 at 2/5 feels like nothing, and $500 at 5/10 feels "slightly above even"

Especially true if you are playing in good active games.

Really bizzare.

This had a big impact on how I played when poker was my sole income. It was a huge leak.
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:21 PM   #15467
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Id rather win a guaranteed 500 everyday I play 8 hours (even if it is boring) then go through a sick roller coaster like the one I had last night. I went from stuck nearly 5k to winning 4k, all in the span of 1 session...
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:22 PM   #15468
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Makes you wonder how many leaks you have in non apocalyptic pots doesn't it? I sometimes go back through a boring "nothing happened" session and count up mistakes to find that I gave away 50-100bb. Just because I didn't make a 100bb bad call it didn't feel so terrible but making 4 25bb mistakes is just as bad. And I'm far less likely to analyze/discuss my bad 3-way cbet on JT6ss board.

What would your winrate look like without those "little" mistakes? It's almost enough to make me hire a coach.
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:28 PM   #15469
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I'm not sure how it effects my game when I'm sitting at the table. I actually don't mind the nearly zen-like act of sitting and folding for an hour. But looking at a +$40 stack still feels weird when there's a storm of chips flying around me. Until I look at the time and do some division of course.

It doesn't really *tilt* me, it's just odd. (If that makes sense.)
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:35 PM   #15470
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Yea. But it's hard to say without detailed HH.

A limp here, or a call pre with a small PP that missed there, failed c-bet on a Q-high board, etc. They might be bad, they might not. And even then quantifying how much of a leak each is can be tough.
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:43 PM   #15471
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Makes you wonder how many leaks you have in non apocalyptic pots doesn't it? I sometimes go back through a boring "nothing happened" session and count up mistakes to find that I gave away 50-100bb. Just because I didn't make a 100bb bad call it didn't feel so terrible but making 4 25bb mistakes is just as bad. And I'm far less likely to analyze/discuss my bad 3-way cbet on JT6ss board.

What would your winrate look like without those "little" mistakes? It's almost enough to make me hire a coach.


Yes.

I'll bet most people would find more of them in the big winning sessions too. They just never look for them because they won 220bb.

And yet when we have the big losing sessions, we go through our play and add up all the silly mistakes we made that contributed to it
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Old 06-23-2016, 04:04 PM   #15472
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Makes you wonder how many leaks you have in non apocalyptic pots doesn't it? I sometimes go back through a boring "nothing happened" session and count up mistakes to find that I gave away 50-100bb. Just because I didn't make a 100bb bad call it didn't feel so terrible but making 4 25bb mistakes is just as bad. And I'm far less likely to analyze/discuss my bad 3-way cbet on JT6ss board.

What would your winrate look like without those "little" mistakes? It's almost enough to make me hire a coach.
Last session out I raised preflop to iso HU, cbet the flop, shut down when called, backed into a straight on the river (albeit on a paired board), and checked it back not realizing it. Gave myself credit for at least eventually managing to table my hand to win the pot. But also knew this mistake cost me an hours worth of work by missing the river bet.

Ever since finding out our room now rakes to a maximum of $6, I can't help but think of the huge amount of money that is taken off the table and how good conditions have to be to actually come out ahead. Last session out I was playing at a great table for about 4 hours. One fish bought in time and time and time again and lost it all. Her friend donked away a $500 stack. The other fish donked away his $600 stack. After they all left, I looked around the table and wondered where it had all gone. One old guy had doubled up his shortstack and did a hit and run, but not for much. Another nit had a couple of extra stacks in front of him. Everyone else, much like myself, looked to be treading water, so where did it all go? Oh right, upwards of ~$240/hr coming off the table, yeah, about ~$1000 down the hole in that period, that sounds about right.

GprettysurealotoftablesIsitatareunbeatableduetorak eG
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Old 06-23-2016, 04:11 PM   #15473
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Caro said if you could watch a game from above you would see money flowing clockwise and yes much of it down the drain. If you could actually watch a time lapsed video of 8 hours we'd have an increased respect for both rake and position I suspect.
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Old 06-23-2016, 04:25 PM   #15474
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Yo guys after 80 hours of 1/2 NL i'm down 363 $, can i conclude something on my game? Do I have to look for something that i'm doing really wrong or should i continue playing and re-evaluate after more hours.

In that i lost a 750 $ pot with 97% equity all in on the flop... (middle set vs top pair he runner runner a bigger FH...meh)

I think one of my biggest leak is to not cashout. I make too long session. 80 hours in only 10 sessions. I think i might take shorter session and cashout when i'm up 1-2 buy in.

I read The Course by Ed Miller and try to apply his tips concerning 1/2. But I read tips for 2/5 too so I might mixed things up sometimes...

What other book would you recommend me to crush my limit?

Longest session: 14.5 hrs
Biggest win : 315
Biggest lost : 505
Winning/Losing session : 50 %

What you guys think?
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Old 06-23-2016, 04:29 PM   #15475
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Yea. There's a reason they drop the rake into a box where it disappears from sight. If they were putting it in the rack/box/tray it would become painfully obvious how much they pull.

Although $240/hr seems a little high. It's not going to be capped every hand. Yet another reason a deeper game is better.
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