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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

06-21-2016 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Well, I played over a million hands online back in the day and played mostly ABC, set mining type nitty style. I dont remember what good online win rates were back then, but I remember mine was probably 75% of what top players were reporting. I was still winning but I was struggling a bit when everything went to 6 max and everyone was hyper aggro. Nittiness wasnt working that well because I was getting run over.

I decided to use everyone's aggression against them and started short stacking 5/10 games and made an absolute killing. After a while that got boring and I stopped playing altogether a few months before Black Friday.

Recently I moved to Florida and have played fairly regularly and have about 750 hrs where I have slowly but surely started taking more "strange" lines or playing "trickier". Whatever you want to call it. Its mostly player dependent.

I know lots of people who have played a lot of hours think 750 hours is nothing, but my results have been very consistent most of the time. Ive had one 100 hour break even streak. Ive had one stretch of 70 hours where I won $125/hr. The rest has been a very consistent steady win rate.

Ive had a max of 3 losing days in a row and Ive had a max $2000 downswing.

I just think alot of people come here to get advice and they all end up reading the same advice and all end up playing alike and its very easy to read. As soon as I hear someone at the table use phrases like "ship it" or "Im at the top of my range", I know they are most likely 2+2ers and I play accordingly. I do alot of things that people here think are stupid but it works for me so I keep doing it. That tells me its probably not as stupid as people think.

I limp a lot if people behind me let me get away with it.
I buy in short a lot depending on who is at the table which goes back to my shortstacking success.
I flat call raises with big pairs more than most would say is correct because thats exactly what people dont expect.
I check/call a lot if Im confidant Im ahead and the guy will keep betting.
I fold to a lot of raises and Im sure I fold the best hand a lot


750 hours really is nothing though. You could easily be running good or bad. Whats your winrate and stdv fpr those 750 hours, and at what stakes?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
$12K in property taxes? Jeez!
TX has no state income tax tho
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 11:51 AM
Yes. Texas, like Nevada, has high property tax rates. That was for multiple properties. I've disposed of some. I should only pay $9k in property taxes this year.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
stdv
bip! can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming even standard deviation has its problems given that we can't assume the game conditions we collected the data in is the same we'll be playing in the future.

GthingschangeG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
750 hours really is nothing though. You could easily be running good or bad. Whats your winrate and stdv fpr those 750 hours, and at what stakes?
Ive had 1 really ridiculous good streak and 1 really horrible one. Its pretty easy to tell the difference. Really anyone who has played a lot of poker should know if they are running good, bad or avg. Im 100% positive that Ive been running below avg but there no way of convincing anyone else of that.

Its also easy to tell if your results are all over the place with huge winning days and weeks and huge losing days and weeks. My variance is very low and my results are normally very steady and consistent.

My StDv is $262.64/hr at $2/$5
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
To Avarita and Happy Luck Box,

Are these numbers that you are quoting based off peak hours like Friday/Saturday nights? Or do you believe these hours would be sustainable during non peak hours? Say someone played every night except Monday-Tuesday. Do you think they could still attain 10bb/hr at 2/5, or 12bb/hr at 1/3?
Peak hours are obviously going to be a bit better than non peak hours, especially if you are playing a standard abc (wait and stack the fish) approach.

I used to avoid playing daytime games but lately have found them to be not so bad, as long as you understand your player pool, your villian's tendencies, when to bluff, etc.

The majority of my hours are daytime now.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
bip! can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming even standard deviation has its problems given that we can't assume the game conditions we collected the data in is the same we'll be playing in the future.

GthingschangeG
True, but I was just curious because it can be indicative of a high variance style, which would invalidate his winrate further due to sample size
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Ive had 1 really ridiculous good streak and 1 really horrible one. Its pretty easy to tell the difference. Really anyone who has played a lot of poker should know if they are running good, bad or avg. Im 100% positive that Ive been running below avg but there no way of convincing anyone else of that.

Its also easy to tell if your results are all over the place with huge winning days and weeks and huge losing days and weeks. My variance is very low and my results are normally very steady and consistent.

My StDv is $262.64/hr at $2/$5


That is a pretty low stdv. Do you have a graph posted somewhere i can see?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
...I know what my win rate is and I know that very few people have that high a win rate, so when these same people with lower win rates than mine tell me my strategy is questionable, that's all I need to know. A lot of terrible players here just dont understand the lines I take and I really dont give 2 ****s what they think. Some good players here question some of my lines also and I pay a lot of attention to their advice, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
Who are the good players? Just curious.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
...

Recently I moved to Florida and have played fairly regularly and have about 750 hrs where I have slowly but surely started taking more "strange" lines or playing "trickier". Whatever you want to call it. Its mostly player dependent.
...
What were your approximate live NLHE results before moving to Florida? It seems weird for you to keep citing the last 750 hours when you must have played thousands of hours of live poker since Black Friday.

I am not trying to attack you, but I always scratch my head when people post about their "recent results" instead of just posting their lifetime results. Why bother posting about a small sample of recent results instead of posting about a large sample of lifetime results?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 02:54 PM
<scrubbed quote of trolling>


I'll see if I can't convince her to forward me 30k.


She's actually starting to come around. Her main issue is the time commitment. So keeping her happy will provide me with more support. That's the case for any poker wife.


Mike: maybe your adjustments are actually good adjustments. I think you catch flak here because the way you articulate your positions leads us to believe that you don't know why what you're doing works. Maybe you just have trouble spelling it out. Maybe you really don't know why it's working which means it won't last because when
You don't know why you don't know how.

Add on your lack of volume and you can see why people are skeptical. I'm not going to knock your results so far though. If your ~750 hrs have no value then my ~1000 have none either. It is simply an asterisk currently. You could be a savant. You could also be a whale.

I also wouldn't put to much stock into what your live poker friends say to your face. Poker players are notorious for snickering at the back of the fish as he walks away.

Last edited by Garick; 06-21-2016 at 07:55 PM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
Mike: maybe your adjustments are actually good adjustments. I think you catch flak here because the way you articulate your positions leads us to believe that you don't know why what you're doing works. Maybe you just have trouble spelling it out. Maybe you really don't know why it's working which means it won't last because when
You don't know why you don't know how.
I would agree with this.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
I'll see if I can't convince her to forward me 30k.


She's actually starting to come around. Her main issue is the time commitment. So keeping her happy will provide me with more support. That's the case for any poker wife.


Mike: maybe your adjustments are actually good adjustments. I think you catch flak here because the way you articulate your positions leads us to believe that you don't know why what you're doing works. Maybe you just have trouble spelling it out. Maybe you really don't know why it's working which means it won't last because when
You don't know why you don't know how.


Add on your lack of volume and you can see why people are skeptical. I'm not going to knock your results so far though. If your ~750 hrs have no value then my ~1000 have none either. It is simply an asterisk currently. You could be a savant. You could also be a whale.

I also wouldn't put to much stock into what your live poker friends say to your face. Poker players are notorious for snickering at the back of the fish as he walks away.
I would say I have trouble articulating what Im doing mostly because I do a lot based on feel at the time (or reads if you want to call it that). Ive had a couple people ask me to coach them but other than the basics I have no idea how to coach anyone.

I doubt my poker friends are texting me with HHs asking for advice on certain hands if they were snickering behind my back about my abilities.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
What were your approximate live NLHE results before moving to Florida? It seems weird for you to keep citing the last 750 hours when you must have played thousands of hours of live poker since Black Friday.

I am not trying to attack you, but I always scratch my head when people post about their "recent results" instead of just posting their lifetime results. Why bother posting about a small sample of recent results instead of posting about a large sample of lifetime results?
Before moving to Florida, I lived where there was no poker. I only played when going to Vegas or if I wanted to drive an hour and half which wasnt that often. I probably had 300 hours of live play before moving and I didnt know about poker apps for the phone then (if they even had them) so I have no detailed results tracked. I do know I won about $30/hr during that time though.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
That is a pretty low stdv. Do you have a graph posted somewhere i can see?
I have a graph of my first 100 sessions which covered about just under 500 hrs posted somewhere in this thread. I hit 100 sessions on April 12th so it should be somewhere around there.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I hit a milestone of 100 sessions since learning there were poker apps to record your sessions.



Here you go.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-21-2016 , 08:09 PM
I am officially done with this ****. I spend more time modding this thread than the rest of the forum put together. I'm shutting it down for an indeterminate amount of time not less than 24 hours.

When it comes back, this is your one and only warning: If you had a post deleted in the last 24 hours, the next post I delete from you ITT will also come with a ban. This ban will range from 24-hours to perma-IP ban, depending on how egregious and how often you have been warned before.

One last time, this thread falls under strat thread rules. No trolling, no matter how funny it is or how much the person seems to be asking for it. No more derails. And for ****'s sake, stop with the e-peening.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-22-2016 , 07:33 PM
Can we have nice things again?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-22-2016 , 07:47 PM
this just in....taking shots at tournaments then bricking them is bad for your bankroll

Started the year with a BR of 19k.

Cash started badly this year but after a good run in Vegas, my cash stats for the year are back in small profit - up 1k from about 50 hours.

Have bricked 6 tournaments and am now down 8k for the year.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-22-2016 , 08:38 PM
Straight up winrate analysis baby ... woooo!


Results from 2016:
76 sessions total, 58 NLHE (18 PLO)

$1/2 NLHE:
267.6 hours for $3762.0, or $14.06/hr

$1/2 PLO/RxR:
59.9 hours for $1, or $0.0167/hr (Hooray!)




As happens every time I look at this, playing PLO may not be worth my time on a shortish roll. (Although even at dead even I'm probably doing better than 60% of the player pool.)

Running the way I have in the last 100 hours is always frustrating. General brickiness in smallish pots, and a couple of gnarly beats (1 outer for $500? Sure, why not ... which way is BBV again?), but it will turn around.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-23-2016 , 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
this just in....taking shots at tournaments then bricking them is bad for your bankroll

Started the year with a BR of 19k.

Cash started badly this year but after a good run in Vegas, my cash stats for the year are back in small profit - up 1k from about 50 hours.

Have bricked 6 tournaments and am now down 8k for the year.
MTTs are extremely high variance, playing with less than 20 buy ins is asking to go busto, especially if you arent selling action.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-23-2016 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp
MTTs are extremely high variance, playing with less than 20 buy ins is asking to go busto, especially if you arent selling action.


Agreed. And it's worse - I had less than 10 buy ins. Played a 2k and a 2.2k amongst my donkaments as well as a 1.5 and 1.1k

My roll is only nominal in the sense that it can be re-plenished with life funds, albeit I won't let that happen.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-23-2016 , 01:09 AM
I think the only logical MTT approach would be to keep playing them by coming up with money, make a decent score, and put that entire winning into a new dedicated tourney roll and repeat.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-23-2016 , 01:18 AM
Is it even possible to win at MTTs given that all of your decent wins are going to be taxed to hell? I've never played in any big tournaments before. I have seen a $130 going on every Sunday at my local Casino and the play is absolutely atrocious. More or less, the same players play in a quarterly tournament that is a $600 buyin. At what point to the tournaments start becoming more diluted by competent players?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
06-23-2016 , 01:19 AM
It may never happen simply because of the variance.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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