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Old 06-10-2016, 06:27 PM   #15176
Dream Crusher
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I didn't use math or statistics when I was a software developer.

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Old 06-10-2016, 07:22 PM   #15177
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

typing BOOB in the calculator doesn't make you an engineer.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:46 PM   #15178
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
typing BOOB in the calculator doesn't make you an engineer.
But all engineers have typed BOOB into their calculator.
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Old 06-11-2016, 04:56 PM   #15179
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Multiply by 1.83.

( sqrt of 100/30)

Fair warning to all - the STDEV / hr listed in a lot of the poker tracking apps is wrong
This. And STDEV itself is wrong in most of the apps that I've tried. The only reliable way is to DIY in a spreadsheet.

It would be great if this thread had a rule that no one could post their WR, only the 95% CI of their WR (though the latter can be deduced from the former). If they knew the CI, they'd probably realize how absurd it is to claim a WR of $X/hr. Sadly most don't know how to calculate a CI and don't even know their STDEV.
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Old 06-11-2016, 05:14 PM   #15180
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It would be great if this thread had a rule that no one could post their WR, only the 95% CI of their WR
Ok then Mr. Smarty Pants...how does one calculate compound interest on one's winrate?!

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Old 06-11-2016, 05:22 PM   #15181
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

To add to the home safe discussion...

Simplisafe

This is a mobile phone based security system. For $20/mo, it will send you a text every time a door is opened (or if the fire/smoke detector, freeze detector, etc. is triggered).

System is wireless, complete with backup battery, and does not require permission from the landlord to install -- which I think anyone can do.

Accessing my safe triggers the system to send me a txt. If someone were to successfully move the safe (though it is heavy and bolted in), a different txt is also sent and an alarm is emitted.

Even if you choose to have a bank safe deposit box, casino box, online bank account, etc... you should still have a safe and home alarm system for your 2nd Amendment supplies.
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Old 06-11-2016, 05:42 PM   #15182
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I want to believe that the STDV I'm getting is wrong, because using the data from my app I'm at 170bb/100 hands, which seems way too high.
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Old 06-11-2016, 05:53 PM   #15183
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Originally Posted by flowrider View Post
Ok then Mr. Smarty Pants...how does one calculate compound interest on one's winrate?!

Pssst.....

CI = confidence interval
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Old 06-11-2016, 05:57 PM   #15184
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
I want to believe that the STDV I'm getting is wrong, because using the data from my app I'm at 170bb/100 hands, which seems way too high.
Mine which I calculated myself is right about 100BB/h, which at 30 hands per hour would equate to about 180BB/100. I think you're okay.
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Old 06-12-2016, 03:48 AM   #15185
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Pssst.....

CI = confidence interval
Yeah, that was just my funny way of askin'.

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Old 06-12-2016, 08:55 AM   #15186
2013
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Curious to see what everyone's stop loss is. Mine is usually 3-4 100bb buyins.
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:07 AM   #15187
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my stop loss: 2,5 150bbs Bullets on me.
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Old 06-12-2016, 09:58 AM   #15188
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I decide the combo of my image and tilt are not profitable. I've come back from 4+ BI to post wins on multiple occasions so I know I can handle it psychologically.



I have 11 BI now.
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Old 06-13-2016, 12:55 PM   #15189
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Could use a bit more love
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Yeah I thought so too.
A couple of sessions ago I was playing with a random; if I was going to add him to my PokerJournal player database, it definitely would have been as Walter White.

I asked him if he ever got told that he looked like him and he just laughed. Then he won a big pot, and I told the table "don't **** with Walter White".

Gormaybeitwasjustsomemiddleagedguywithagoateeandah atG
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Old 06-13-2016, 02:52 PM   #15190
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Really tired of how much time I waste modding this thread. Stop with the derails and poo-flinging. Infractions coming for anyone turning this into son-of-chat-thread in the future.
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Old 06-13-2016, 04:36 PM   #15191
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Below are my stats from the last year or so of 1/2. I'm thinking of moving up, but my room's max 2/5 buy in is $1k. Total bankroll is about $11k completely carved out from living expense, savings, checking, etc. Anyone have thoughts on if i'm adequately rolled or not to start shot taking? Also, anything in my stats seem weird or stick out?



Last edited by Gorgalosk; 06-13-2016 at 04:44 PM.
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Old 06-13-2016, 04:43 PM   #15192
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You can always shot take and you don't need to max buy.
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Old 06-13-2016, 04:48 PM   #15193
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gorgalosk, full time pro or do you have a job?
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Old 06-13-2016, 04:52 PM   #15194
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Gorgalosk, full time pro or do you have a job?
I have a full time job. I probably play at the local casino 2-3 times a week for about 10-12 hours total. Nothing crazy. I dont feel as focused and locked in if I play longer than that.
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Old 06-13-2016, 05:36 PM   #15195
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Originally Posted by 2013 View Post
Curious to see what everyone's stop loss is. Mine is usually 3-4 100bb buyins.
10-20 percent of my liquid roll. varies based on game conditions.

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Old 06-13-2016, 06:02 PM   #15196
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Really tired of how much time I waste modding this thread. Stop with the derails and poo-flinging. Infractions coming for anyone turning this into son-of-chat-thread in the future.
How much do you think that hurts your winrate?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgalosk View Post
Below are my stats from the last year or so of 1/2. I'm thinking of moving up, but my room's max 2/5 buy in is $1k. Total bankroll is about $11k completely carved out from living expense, savings, checking, etc. Anyone have thoughts on if i'm adequately rolled or not to start shot taking? Also, anything in my stats seem weird or stick out?
Seems like you played more or less breakeven for about 3-400 hours before a noticeable uptick in your winrate. What happened there? Did you change something in your game? You're just getting into the kind of sample size I'd expect to start being meaningful, but it looks like you're pretty clearly a winner.

I wouldn't be taking full rolled shots at $2/5 yet. $500 shots are fine. Pick and choose times when the game looks juicy, especially if you recognize some of the bad players from $1/2 sitting there. Personally I'd want about $20k to sit $2/5 with a $500 cap regularly, need more for a deeper game. Fastest way to get there is a little run-good with the shot taking.
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Old 06-13-2016, 07:04 PM   #15197
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You have plenty to shot take but you need to be real honest with yourself about results and disciplined if you lose and need to drop down. $13/hr is a winner but not a crusher at $1/2 so it's tough to say how you'll go at 2/5. Likely still have some things to work on.
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Old 06-13-2016, 07:25 PM   #15198
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
How much do you think that hurts your winrate?




Seems like you played more or less breakeven for about 3-400 hours before a noticeable uptick in your winrate. What happened there? Did you change something in your game? You're just getting into the kind of sample size I'd expect to start being meaningful, but it looks like you're pretty clearly a winner.

I wouldn't be taking full rolled shots at $2/5 yet. $500 shots are fine. Pick and choose times when the game looks juicy, especially if you recognize some of the bad players from $1/2 sitting there. Personally I'd want about $20k to sit $2/5 with a $500 cap regularly, need more for a deeper game. Fastest way to get there is a little run-good with the shot taking.

Honestly, I had some add medication that i'm on tweaked and just started to read the forums a bit more. I'm filtering now, and it looks like i'm running at about $21/hr since the tweak.
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Old 06-13-2016, 07:42 PM   #15199
Angrist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgalosk View Post
Honestly, I had some add medication that i'm on tweaked and just started to read the forums a bit more. I'm filtering now, and it looks like i'm running at about $21/hr since the tweak.
Interesting. Then it could be a legitimate change in your play/winrate at that point. Hard to tell until we see another couple hundred hours though.
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Old 06-13-2016, 09:27 PM   #15200
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorgalosk View Post
Honestly, I had some add medication that i'm on tweaked and just started to read the forums a bit more. I'm filtering now, and it looks like i'm running at about $21/hr since the tweak.
There's no way to know based on this filter whether or not the adjustment affected your win-rate. The sample size is small and you can't isolate this variable among the many others that can have an effect on your win-rate.

If I were in your situation I would be playing 2|5. You are not playing enough hours of poker in relation to your job to really hurt yourself if you go on a downswing. 2|5 is not really much harder, but in general the player pool is much more fun IMO, and you should make more money if you're a winning player, which you probably are.
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