Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

05-23-2016 , 12:39 PM
Playing 1/3 300 cap with Mississippi straddle I had a 1300 upswing on Friday night followed by a 900 downswing Saturday night.

Wee - fun times

Down swings being debated in the thread seem plausible to me.


Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munlochi
This.

I'll admit this month has been very trying for me. Every shot at 2/5 for me has failed miserably.

I gave my kid sister 4000 from my roll for some medical bills and immediately the doomswitch was turned on. Run bad continued for 2 weeks. Lost my confidence in my regular game and started losing there almost daily. A game I had been crushing for months. It was all directly related to my mindset. As horrible as it sounds despite thinking my mind was clear and each day was new I was, in fact, expecting to lose each day and, in turn, I did. Seriously considered quitting altogether.

Taking a break for a few days helped tremendously.

Richard Parker is completely right though. Most players lose. Most players won't be talking about the losses because it isn't fun to do so.

Anyways since this is winrate thread I should probably talk about it a little:

Ran my $1/$2 $300max bankroll requirements for my winrate this year and it made me laugh

400 hours
$23.99/hr
Standard deviation: 160.22
1% Risk of ruin calculator
Bankroll requirement: $2463.90

Now obviously I took money out for my sister once but I'd never feel comfortable with that little in my game. That's like 8 buyins. I'm lucky I haven't been swongy in this game but my shots at 2/5 have been meh.

Lol so standard dude, i bought a new car last year and spent the next 600 hours of poker making under $10/hr
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 01:30 PM
will 3rd that. any major purchase is a good 70% to activate doomswitch any major purchase/large expense that is completely unexpected is like 98% minimum probably higher.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:15 PM
like anything else in gambling poker is a losing entity. Not as bad as BJ or craps which is heavily house favored . Then you read the BS about poker pros. There is no such thing as a pro. 52 card deck if the cards just happen to run in your favor you win. You can take a 3yr old sit him at the table turn over his hand for him see the flop and tell him yaaay he won. Many of you might think my thinking is screwy but when you think about it makes a lot of sense. I wont deny there is some skill involved exploiting weakness of opponents finding key spots etc but bottom line its all about luck of the draw . Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellofaplaya44
like anything else in gambling poker is a losing entity. Not as bad as BJ or craps which is heavily house favored . Then you read the BS about poker pros. There is no such thing as a pro. 52 card deck if the cards just happen to run in your favor you win. You can take a 3yr old sit him at the table turn over his hand for him see the flop and tell him yaaay he won. Many of you might think my thinking is screwy but when you think about it makes a lot of sense. I wont deny there is some skill involved exploiting weakness of opponents finding key spots etc but bottom line its all about luck of the draw . Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
It tells me that you should keep playing, and that I want you at my table.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellofaplaya44
Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
Tells me not to play ABC poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellofaplaya44
like anything else in gambling poker is a losing entity. Not as bad as BJ or craps which is heavily house favored . Then you read the BS about poker pros. There is no such thing as a pro. 52 card deck if the cards just happen to run in your favor you win. You can take a 3yr old sit him at the table turn over his hand for him see the flop and tell him yaaay he won. Many of you might think my thinking is screwy but when you think about it makes a lot of sense. I wont deny there is some skill involved exploiting weakness of opponents finding key spots etc but bottom line its all about luck of the draw . Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
So why are you here?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellofaplaya44
like anything else in gambling poker is a losing entity. Not as bad as BJ or craps which is heavily house favored . Then you read the BS about poker pros. There is no such thing as a pro. 52 card deck if the cards just happen to run in your favor you win. You can take a 3yr old sit him at the table turn over his hand for him see the flop and tell him yaaay he won. Many of you might think my thinking is screwy but when you think about it makes a lot of sense. I wont deny there is some skill involved exploiting weakness of opponents finding key spots etc but bottom line its all about luck of the draw . Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
screen name hell of a playa, but the cards are the only thing that matters
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 02:54 PM
hellofaplaya44

If you are trolling congrats you got me.

I have been in the gamboolin biz for a long time and have seen it ruin a lot of lives. Based on your posts it seems highly likely that you have gambling issues. I hope for your sake you find the strength to stay away from the casino as it will not end well for you. I am not a big fan of 12 step programs but they obv have one for gambling (gamblers anonymous). If you cant stay away from the room without support you may want to stop by one of their meetings
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 03:24 PM
Much worse than 21 or craps for typical player. The guys lol min buying 1/2 or whatever would be so much better off just taking cheap baccarat flips (assuming we're just talking about $). That's also why I've never understood why poker was so frowned upon especially by smaller rooms. They juice the low stakes poker games a ridiculous amount compared to the low rent tables. Plus it would take a lot less effort to steal away poker customers from competitors and they're generally very loyal tickets.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 05:17 PM
Per table profit is much higher in any pit games than poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Per table profit is much higher in any pit games than poker.
That depends on your system.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WOAT1Time
Much worse than 21 or craps for typical player. The guys lol min buying 1/2 or whatever would be so much better off just taking cheap baccarat flips (assuming we're just talking about $). That's also why I've never understood why poker was so frowned upon especially by smaller rooms. They juice the low stakes poker games a ridiculous amount compared to the low rent tables. Plus it would take a lot less effort to steal away poker customers from competitors and they're generally very loyal tickets.
What is weird is I always used to think like this. One day a few months ago a local short stacker asked me about my hourly and in turn showed me a spreadsheet of his. Normally I would tell anyone else to mind their business but I was curious to see what a $50 buy in player at $1/$2 300 max would make. This guy has one move preflop shove or fold. Even a $1 chip in the small blind he mucks almost instantly. He's a bonus hunter between the 2 poker playing casinos. He goes where the promotions are. Everyone knows this. They even have names for him.

I got to look at his spreadsheet for about 5 minutes and was amazed that over 200 hours he was averaging $15.50 an hour. I thought for sure he was a loser in the game. He told me this is without any promo money added in as well.

In Indiana they have to post the financials each month for all of the casinos. My small place looked something like this:

Slots: 15 million profit
Table games: 2 million profit
Poker: 145,000 (16 tables, never run more then 3 normally unless tournament)
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munlochi
What is weird is I always used to think like this. One day a few months ago a local short stacker asked me about my hourly and in turn showed me a spreadsheet of his. Normally I would tell anyone else to mind their business but I was curious to see what a $50 buy in player at $1/$2 300 max would make. This guy has one move preflop shove or fold. Even a $1 chip in the small blind he mucks almost instantly. He's a bonus hunter between the 2 poker playing casinos. He goes where the promotions are. Everyone knows this. They even have names for him.

I got to look at his spreadsheet for about 5 minutes and was amazed that over 200 hours he was averaging $15.50 an hour. I thought for sure he was a loser in the game. He told me this is without any promo money added in as well.

In Indiana they have to post the financials each month for all of the casinos. My small place looked something like this:

Slots: 15 million profit
Table games: 2 million profit
Poker: 145,000 (16 tables, never run more then 3 normally unless tournament)
Does he coach?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
Does he coach?
I'll ask him next time I see Fanny Pack John. I mean him, when I see him
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellofaplaya44
like anything else in gambling poker is a losing entity. Not as bad as BJ or craps which is heavily house favored . Then you read the BS about poker pros. There is no such thing as a pro. 52 card deck if the cards just happen to run in your favor you win. You can take a 3yr old sit him at the table turn over his hand for him see the flop and tell him yaaay he won. Many of you might think my thinking is screwy but when you think about it makes a lot of sense. I wont deny there is some skill involved exploiting weakness of opponents finding key spots etc but bottom line its all about luck of the draw . Play ABC poker and still lose what does that really tell you ?
Tells me I need to start sitting at tables full of 3 year olds.


So if a hypothetical player was able to make all of his profits from moms how down winnings, would it be luck of the draw?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munlochi
This guy has one move preflop shove or fold. Even a $1 chip in the small blind he mucks almost instantly. He's a bonus hunter between the 2 poker playing casinos. He goes where the promotions are.
This sounds like a correct short stack strategy. So he could very well be a winner. I'd believe that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by munlochi
I got to look at his spreadsheet for about 5 minutes and was amazed that over 200 hours he was averaging $15.50 an hour. I thought for sure he was a loser in the game. He told me this is without any promo money added in as well.
Small sample size. While his strategy sounds solid enough, it's hard to say if he's just running well. I'd be interested to see how he fairs with the promo money added.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
This sounds like a correct short stack strategy. So he could very well be a winner. I'd believe that.



Small sample size. While his strategy sounds solid enough, it's hard to say if he's just running well. I'd be interested to see how he fairs with the promo money added.
I know that he won 5 CPC main event seats at Horseshoe. This was the legend behind this guy and his bonus hunting ways. For the month leading up to the event they were high carding one table a day at something like 9am, 5pm and 11pm.

He was there playing 9am. Told me that out of 30 days they picked his table (typically 2 to 4 tables going then) 11 times and 5 of the 11 he was picked. They actually had to change the rules just for him because before this they were no transferrable and not eligible for cash.

These are $2,000 seats with 3 or 4 flights. He played in one of the flights and busted out. The other 4 entries they gave him Horseshoe tournament lammers for $8,000 which he sold to others and might have kept one buyin for WSOP Circuits later this year.

Pretty amazing.

Sometimes when I go into my casino I see him staring at slots. He'll sit at a table then go for walks because the $2 an hour in comps is more then the Horseshoe.

I'm glad that we are friendly. He tells me about his slots, freeplay and promotions theories. I would never play the way he does but I can't argue his results anymore.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munlochi
This guy has one move preflop shove or fold. Even a $1 chip in the small blind he mucks almost instantly.
What does he do after he doubles up?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
What does he do after he doubles up?


Victory lap
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:46 PM
If guys that bad are taking money out of those games the average player would do A LOT better taking $10 baccarat flips.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
What does he do after he doubles up?

Guy in my player pool plays this short stack push bot style. Mostly he hit and runs between 1/3 and 2/5. If he doubles quickly he'll go to 1/2. The rule is 1 hr before you come in with a fresh buy in.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 07:07 PM
Ugh, 1 hour is way too short. Should be at least 2, and preferably 3.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
What does he do after he doubles up?
He stays and plays the same strategy but not shoving. So if he plays a hand he'll put $50 in.

One day I walked in and he had $550. That's the most I've ever seen him have.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-23-2016 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY
Victory lap
Also this. He'll win a big pot wait a few hands then go walk around for 30 to 45 minutes.

When we had hot seat promotion every 3 hours for $200. He'd play, they'd draw a name at say 1. If he didn't swap % with people and hit he'd pick up and come back 30 minutes before the next drawing and sit down.

They don't do that anymore but that was his strategy.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
m