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Old 05-21-2016, 10:14 AM   #14701
Gilmour
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
For sure?

The chasm between possible and likely lies in a normal distribution curve. Given my history at 1/2, 2/5 and 10/10 I would have thought this impossible, but at the end of the day the long run of being a 2:1 - 4:1 favorite means nothing when you are talking about one off encounters.


Without knowing you in person, thats my prediction yes. Its not even sure you notice it yourself (with all kind of respect), because when you run so bad your decisionmaking often get clouded without you even noticing it. Ive experienced that myself during my biggest downswing, wich was like 5 losing sessions in a row losing 300-500 BB each session. That even made me question myself, i can tell you. 19 losing sessions out of 20 is alot, and i cant imagine thats a normal swing for a steadily winning player at 2/5.

Regardless i hope you manage to work your way out of it Johnny, cause i think you bring alot good to the forum and i enjoy reading lot of your posts.
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:21 AM   #14702
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If it's as he said there's nothing to notice (well, there's always something to notice but within reason here). It's like if somebody gives you even money to lay the hard ten and has a run in there where he hits the 10 two dozen times in a row. Unless you're getting cheated (something to consider...) it's just math there's nothing to notice.

Put another way do you think a dice game should reconsider their play when a once a decade shooter hits them up for a big score (other than making sure they weren't cheated)? If he lost 24 out of 25 as 2-1 or better favorite somebody hit the Power Ball on him/it is what it is same as a sick dice roll where the house had the best of it for the whole four hours and still took a big hit.

Last edited by WOAT1Time; 05-21-2016 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 05-21-2016, 11:04 AM   #14703
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If it's as he said there's nothing to notice (well, there's always something to notice but within reason here). It's like if somebody gives you even money to lay the hard ten and has a run in there where he hits the 10 two dozen times in a row. Unless you're getting cheated (something to consider...) it's just math there's nothing to notice.

Put another way do you think a dice game should reconsider their play when a once a decade shooter hits them up for a big score (other than making sure they weren't cheated)? If he lost 24 out of 25 as 2-1 or better favorite somebody hit the Power Ball on him/it is what it is same as a sick dice roll where the house had the best of it for the whole four hours and still took a big hit.
It sure would be nice to know how much equity he had in those 24/25 all ins to compare that to his overall results during that time frame. If he lost $4000 in equity on those hands and is only down $3000 during that time frame then he is probably playing OK. If he lost $4000 in equity in those hands and is down $10000 during that time, he has other leaks that he needs to examine. But since you guys think doing Allin EV calcs is stupid, he / we will never know.

I had a stretch where I had 16 all ins during a 2 week period with 70-90% equity. I lost 14 of them. I also had 2 large coin flips and lost both of them during that same stretch. I wanted to pull my hair out but I had the data readily available to me. I lost $2885 in all in equity that month. That knowledge and the fact that I was still in the black during that time period told me that I was playing well. Did I leave money on the table in some hands during that time? Im sure I did and I did the best I could to limit mistakes and still reviewed hands in my mind afterwards, but overall it was obvious to me that I was still playing well which gave me confidence to just keep grinding thru it and not make adjustments. I suspect that Johnny has no idea if he needs to make adjustments or not.
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Old 05-21-2016, 11:24 AM   #14704
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gilmour - I'm not sitting here making hero calls for stacks, forgetting to bet/fold TPTK, paying bad prices to draw etc. The worst decision I made during the streak was probably the AKs vs. AA hand for $1000 and at the end of the day who knows where that falls on the variance/spew timeline.

I find poker to be easy. The formula is extremely simple: make good decisions + run good. You can't control what you can't control. I got to where I am by playing disciplined and knowing when to walk away if I'm not playing my A game. I think I have the wherewithal and emotional stability to look at this objectively and realize it's a small blip on the life graph.

I have a friend that just went through a bad run and he is repulsed by poker at the moment. It makes him sick to think about it. I wake up every day with a clean slate, a short term memory of recent events and I'm excited to play. I know my edge in the game and I go in there and try to realize it. But I also accept and embrace the luck/variance factor.

Will I run good? I hope so, but I cannot control it so no sense wasting energy contemplating it.
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:40 PM   #14705
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It sure would be nice to know how much equity he had in those 24/25 all ins to compare that to his overall results during that time frame. If he lost $4000 in equity on those hands and is only down $3000 during that time frame then he is probably playing OK. If he lost $4000 in equity in those hands and is down $10000 during that time, he has other leaks that he needs to examine. But since you guys think doing Allin EV calcs is stupid, he / we will never know.
You mad, bruh?

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I had a stretch where I had 16 all ins during a 2 week period with 70-90% equity. I lost 14 of them. I also had 2 large coin flips and lost both of them during that same stretch. I wanted to pull my hair out but I had the data readily available to me.
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I lost $2885 in all in equity that month.
Most of us know how to calculate equity, and I don't think any of us really need calculator to figure out what 75-90% equity hands look like.

It should be pretty obvious that if we lose bunch of big 75-90% pots, we are losing a lot of $$$. Does it help to know precisely how much EV we lost, so that we can lament why we only have $1000 left in BR? Probably not.

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That knowledge and the fact that I was still in the black during that time period told me that I was playing well.
Most people that cashed out a winner in a session will probably think they played well.

Does it matter they lost bunch of AI pots as big favorite, but won bunch of non-AI pots by sucking out gutters and 2 pair as huge dogs?

Nope, they played well, if anything, they probably thought they played extremely well because they did lose bunch of AI pots.

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Did I leave money on the table in some hands during that time? Im sure I did and I did the best I could to limit mistakes and still reviewed hands in my mind afterwards...
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but overall it was obvious to me that I was still playing well which gave me confidence to just keep grinding thru it and not make adjustments.
You know that because you can calculate AIEV and you won in the session?

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I suspect that Johnny has no idea if he needs to make adjustments or not.
We all have different and varying degrees of lies to tell ourselves.
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:47 PM   #14706
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Yeah, i mean- for sure huge swings are possible even for the best players out there. The big question though, and what i would think many people is asking themself is how good of a player you really are if you go through like a 30K$ swing at 5/5 over 4 months time: deep stacked games or not, that is such a massive swing and i would for sure start to ask myself some serious questions about my actual skillevel if a similar thing happend to me.


I think Johnnys downswing of like losing 19 out of 20 sessions is also so huge that this kind of swings doesent come from pure variance alone. For sure its some big leaks or spewing mixed in also- and also maybe som false sense of how big your edge really is in the games you sit in.


Obviously you start questioning how well you're playing ect when on a downswing of that magnitude. It'll make you question everything. And there's likely no one that can play perfectly when running like this. Did I question my game? Yes. Did I wonder if I still had an edge? Yes. Did I review my play with others and honestly search for mental game leaks? Of course. Did that change anything? Not really. Other than knowing I played ok even when stuck up to my eyeballs. The variance in this game is unpredictable and the long term in live poker especially is a really really long time. I just played thru it and finally came out the other side. I still remember the session when things turned around for me. It was pretty eye opening.

And fwiw these games I'm talking about everybody was mostly $3-$5k deep. Like all 9-10 players at the table. And a few were literally maniacs. So super high variance with pretty deep stacks. Pretty easy to go on a downer there that can be brutal.
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:01 PM   #14707
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And fwiw these games I'm talking about everybody was mostly $3-$5k deep. Like all 9-10 players at the table. And a few were literally maniacs. So super high variance with pretty deep stacks. Pretty easy to go on a downer there that can be brutal.
Uncapped game of that size is a very very different game than LLSNL.

Even a crusher of LLSNL can easily be a fish without first building up a comfort level.
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:18 PM   #14708
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Uncapped game of that size is a very very different game than LLSNL.



Even a crusher of LLSNL can easily be a fish without first building up a comfort level.


Agreed. These were the games I primarily played for about 2 years. Much different than your average 100bb 2/5 game at your local casino. But even the standard 2/5 games at my closest casino play with no cap and very very deep.
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:28 PM   #14709
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Even as a crusher of 3/5, I am probably a fish in your game.
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Old 05-21-2016, 07:56 PM   #14710
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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We all have different and varying degrees of lies to tell ourselves.
I'm just a touch overweight.



sent from my secret chat thread
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Old 05-21-2016, 09:19 PM   #14711
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have over 5k live hours at the $5 blind level and my biggest downswing was about $8k. I just experienced a 6k downswing recently and feel I am way better now than the 8k one. A lot of crazy things happened that I have almost never seen before. I find it really hard to believe one could go through a 16k downswing at this level and still consider themselves a great player. JMO.
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Old 05-21-2016, 09:24 PM   #14712
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What if that player has double of your WR?
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:35 PM   #14713
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What if that player has double of your WR?
Why do you get such a kick out of debating every thing said in this thread? Its almost as if you think you are the only person who knows anything. Kind of like a "know-it-all". Most know it alls that I've been around, are wrong more than they are right, but Im sure you'll tell me that Im wrong.
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:40 PM   #14714
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He just asked a simple question.
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:42 PM   #14715
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mike are you upset
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:45 PM   #14716
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He just asked a simple question.
All you have to do is read any small portion of this very long thread and you will see him "asking a simple" question all the time, but that simple question is just him trying to debate every point that anyone that is not named Richard Parker makes. It got old about 150 pages ago.
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:49 PM   #14717
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mike are you upset
Of course not.
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:52 PM   #14718
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All you have to do is read any small portion of this very long thread and you will see him "asking a simple" question all the time, but that simple question is just him trying to debate every point that anyone that is not named Richard Parker makes. It got old about 150 pages ago.
Why not?

Can you turn a simple question into 10 pages of debate?
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:52 PM   #14719
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Mike why are you so upset?
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Old 05-21-2016, 10:54 PM   #14720
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Why do you get such a kick out of debating every thing said in this thread? Its almost as if you think you are the only person who knows anything. Kind of like a "know-it-all". Most know it alls that I've been around, are wrong more than they are right, but Im sure you'll tell me that Im wrong.
Because your simple comments don't satisfy my desire to learn.

Plus if I know it all, I wouldn't ask.
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Old 05-22-2016, 04:59 AM   #14721
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FWIW I mostly don't think it's worth tracking because when it's obvious you'll know and when it's not it's not significant enough to matter. Like a case like this a guy is down a **** ton of buy ins but he knows they have got it in bad and hit every draw for months now. It's obvious. Most ppl who track it seem to obsess though and if it's at all close it's likely not that big a deal. I'm down 3K in AIEV and only down 2K I must be playing well for example. Well, you could easily be getting a few thousand dollars worth of an unfair share of premium starters for example. To me, it's just not worth stressing over. I'm more worried about if Worm is base dealing than typing in my $tat$ wrt all in luck and coolers but that's just me/to each his own.
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Old 05-22-2016, 08:48 PM   #14722
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Yeah I agree. The reason I am even focused on it is because I plan to play exclusively 2-5. I wouldn't make the jump if I thought a $16,000 downswing was possible or "standard" for someone who is beating the game. Hence, why I ask other posters if they have experienced such a downswing. Nobody has come on here yet and said "yep, that happened to me."

Considering this is the "win rates" thread, I don't feel it's unreasonable to discuss what you're biggest downswing is at a given stake.
I was just posting about having 10k swings at $5 big blind games. I think they are normal and a $16k downswing is abnormal but not unrealistic
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Old 05-22-2016, 09:25 PM   #14723
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All of this seems to disregard the fact that Jbuz plays a very strong game of pushing small EV edges and marginal situations. Judging from strat threads he's good at this and his reads are adequate to play this type of game.

And his win rate demonstrates that it's working for him. On the flip side because of the small edge he pushes in many hands it's easy to go off the rails variance wise. So I believe the downswing could be purely cards driven with a smattering of tilt. It doesn't mean he's not a winning player. Only JB knows the distribution of losing hands involved.
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Old 05-22-2016, 09:45 PM   #14724
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Depends on who you ask
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Old 05-23-2016, 06:03 AM   #14725
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All you have to do is read any small portion of this very long thread and you will see him "asking a simple" question all the time, but that simple question is just him trying to debate every point that anyone that is not named Richard Parker makes. It got old about 150 pages ago.
dont bother, he wont stop
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