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Old 05-19-2016, 02:34 PM   #14676
bwslim69
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by pokerodox View Post
This is not tax advice. I am not a professional. You should ask someone who knows better.



When I was in a similar situation, the guy gave me a W9 form. I gave him a 1099-MISC form. Find those forms at the U.S. taxing authority web site.


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thanks, for your reply and for the others. I'll go check out the site and ask around.


Dox is pretty much on point. I recommend you hire some one who knows wtf they are doing because you could be subjected to some significant penalties for failure to file timely 1099s

I see several issues that could trigger further problems if not handled properly in the initial response
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Old 05-19-2016, 02:39 PM   #14677
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The IRS likes to **** people, I'm just never selling action again
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Old 05-19-2016, 04:23 PM   #14678
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
i just looked at it a few minutes ago, i was going to post it separately but chose to only post the deep one... anyway, it showed my 500max at around 52 and my deep around 62

regardless, its not a huge difference (and now i just realize, maybe thats what you meant??)... i just have a different perspective on it from most regs (i think conventional wisdom of most live regs is that deep is significantly more profitable than shallow, right?) because when i first started playing deep, i thought there would be only a small increase in my WR, but I happened to have a big upswing as soon as I started playing deeper. So then I thought that playing deep games was significantly better than playing shallow. But as I played more deep, I went through a nasty break-even stretch, and then another healthy upswing, and then finally just a long period where I was winning like $40/hr and hugely disappointed as it was going on.

At this point, my opinion changed and I realized a few things about deeper games

1) the increased variance will negatively affect most non-elite poker players because it'll put you on tilt more and make you play your C-game for longer periods while there's more money at stake.

2) you play against much better competition. at the 500max games, most of the fish just give their money away and the regs/pros suck a lot. at 1000max games, everyone still sucks a lot if you work hard and are smart, but i think they suck quite a bit less than your average opponent at a deep 1/3 or shallow 2/5 game. also, these games will usually attract some players in the player pool who are either as good, better, or slightly worse than you are. this # of equally skilled players goes up/down depending on how good you are yourself.

3) there can be huge fluctuations in how much money you make over 500 hour periods, even 1k and 2k hour periods potentially, which i think may be a shock to many inexperienced players. i think i had a 1k hour stretch where i made $80k and another where i made $40k. not that thats an enormous difference, but on the otherhand, at deep 1/3 and shallow 2/5, i have a much more consistent profit amount over 200-hour periods, which would be considered a small timeframe in a 1k 2/5.

i think more time on your c-game, less opportunity to be in super juicy games compared to shallow 2/5, better competition, and potentially even less hands/per hour are all reasons why most people won't see huge differences in their winrates between the two.

and of course, im not saying deep games are tough at all. almost every 1k and 1.5k max 2/5 ive played in has been crushable for a very nice living. but by contrast, in a 500max, you play your Agame more because youre literally never in a tough/annoying spot, you play more fish/whales, you play against less winning players because the game isnt as "fun"/no one wants to be seen "slummin' it"/or whatever irrational reason, you may get more hands per hour, you may have less competition for table change/seat change.

ideally, you just play the game thats most profitable obviously. unless you're an elite poker player, then i guess always play biggest. but i think if you're just a very good/hard working player, on your a-game, have nice br, etc then strictly sticking to the deep game and not even considering the smaller/shallow game might be a mistake.
Amazing post! No way you weren't sober when you wrote that!

Sticky this IMO
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Old 05-20-2016, 02:53 AM   #14679
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Why is the entire poker world allergic to having a side job?
Because earning $1500 for 80hrs of work sucks when you lose it on payday.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:20 AM   #14680
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Kid saves and grinds more than you ever will. Takes a shot with perhaps a bit of naďveté but does it right with life roll and bank roll.... And you take the easy shot? I thought you were a pro troll.
Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my phone...oh wait nm.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:49 AM   #14681
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[QUOTE=Pots-For-Sale;50057022]
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You saying that kind of variance "is not even remotely possible" shows how little you understand variance. And obv all 2/5 games are not the same. 2/5 closest to me is uncapped. Some are 100bb cap and most 3/5 in LA are actually 40bb cap games. Pretty huge difference from sitting 500+ bbs deep vs 100bb cap. Pretty much most 1/2 games have 150bb max. And most of those guys sit with 50bbs or less anyways. Pretty unfair comparison imo.
What is so hard to understand? Squid has come on here and said that his biggest downswing was 5k. He also confirmed that this was similar to other guys who's "game he respects."

I have close to 3k hours logged of live experience, some at 2-5, but mostly at 1-2. I have had several downswings during that stretch, and nothing ever further than 2k.

I am seeing a pattern here, that for any "crusher" at their stake, it seems that the biggest downswing you will go on is approx. 10 buy-ins.

Johnny Buzz's game is capped at a 1k buy-in. So, 10 buyins of 1k is $10,000. Buzz reported a $16,000 downswing. This seems way bigger than what is expected. It could be a clue that his game has leaks....even if he was experiencing run bad.
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Old 05-20-2016, 04:04 AM   #14682
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While I'm not disagreeing with you Bodybuilder that a massive downswing such as that likely was self-sustained from mental leaks ontop of the runbad...

However, I'd also like to point out that being a crusher at another game does not directly correlate to downswings at 1/2, because the competition is so bad at the lowest stake offered that you should be able to print variance free money almost always. At higher stakes there will always be more variance, even if you're a crusher, as the skill gap is not as extreme
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Old 05-20-2016, 04:31 AM   #14683
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[QUOTE=bodybuilder32;50062718]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale View Post

What is so hard to understand? Squid has come on here and said that his biggest downswing was 5k. He also confirmed that this was similar to other guys who's "game he respects."

I have close to 3k hours logged of live experience, some at 2-5, but mostly at 1-2. I have had several downswings during that stretch, and nothing ever further than 2k.

I am seeing a pattern here, that for any "crusher" at their stake, it seems that the biggest downswing you will go on is approx. 10 buy-ins.

Johnny Buzz's game is capped at a 1k buy-in. So, 10 buyins of 1k is $10,000. Buzz reported a $16,000 downswing. This seems way bigger than what is expected. It could be a clue that his game has leaks....even if he was experiencing run bad.
It is not as if once you lose 10bi you start winning or something
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Old 05-20-2016, 04:43 AM   #14684
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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.
This thread has been mostly **** for the past 5 years and then Duke arrives and starts laying out the truth to the masses. Nice post and great work!

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Totally disagree.

Tracking stuff like AllinEV is a waste of time. You would be better served spending your time on improving your poker game than spending your time to figure out "how lucky/unlucky" you have been lately.
This +1,000,000

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I don'T know any good live pros playing 5/10 NL or higher who are calculating AllinEV or other such nonsense.
But I promise you if you go to the beginners forum they will be all about it and if you disagree with them they'll write a 5 paragraph essay with companion graphs showing why they are right and why you are wrong.

(then you search their posts and discover they've been playing .05/.10 for the past 5 years because poker isn't beatable).

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AIEV is not the only source of variance nor is it even close to the largest contributor to variance. Tracking it gives you one piece to a 500 piece puzzle.
Are you in the black in tournaments yet because I might need a lil staking into that Vegas 1/1 game.

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I like calling for setups every hour
You sick sadistic son of a *****!

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Why is the entire poker world allergic to having a side job?
I'm allergic to both jobs and poker.

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Can't believe that is your smallest downswing. After running $68/hour for 400 hours I went into a $16,000+ downswing losing 19 of my last 20 sessions at 2/5. Needless to say it has ****ed with my psyche.
Wow, that sucks. 19 of 20 sessions is crazy. Obviously some run bad, probably some mental issues due to the run bad, and probably some adjustments that will need to be made. Just keep plugging away and keep improving and you will get to where you want to be in time.

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Has anyone else experienced anything like this? The top 2-5 crushers on here say their biggest downswing was in the 5-6k range. Yours being at 16k is way past that. MikeStarr says his biggest losing streak is 3 sessions in a row.

If you can lose 19-20 sessions at 2-5 having an edge over the field then you could just as easily lose 19-20 at 1-2. I'm a crusher at 1-2 and can tell you that is not even remotely possible. Similar to Mike, the max amount of losing sessions Ive booked in a row is 3, and my biggest downswing was 2k, which could have been easily reduced down to 1500 if it wasn't due to spewy play from being on tilt for "running bad".
Enough with the CRUSHER talk. He's a crusher, you're a crusher, I'm a crusher, EVERYBODY IS A CRUSHER on an internet forum. Too bad it doesn't work like that in real life. Becoming a crusher takes experience and experience takes time.

Does a $68/hr winrate at 2/5 over 400 hrs make Johnny a 2/5 crusher? No, it means he was a new 2/5 player running above expectations. That's no indictment of Johnny. That is to be expected. When you play a new level you are learning a new game. You don't know all the ins and outs of it right off the bat. As you gain experience you will be able to range players better and learn to better exploit them. This isn't something you are just born with. Look at Duke. A few years ago he didn't know his ******* from a hole in the ground but now he's obliterating his competition. Duke wasn't just annointed CRUSHER because he's a smart guy. It took a lot of hard work and studying and he had to make adjustments along the way to continually improve.
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Old 05-20-2016, 07:55 AM   #14685
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Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my phone...oh wait nm.

It's Psycho.
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Old 05-20-2016, 11:20 AM   #14686
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Does a $68/hr winrate at 2/5 over 400 hrs make Johnny a 2/5 crusher? No, it means he was a new 2/5 player running above expectations.
Duke's deep 2/5 graph is an excellent example of this, where it looks like he made almost ~half his overall profit in his first 300 of 1700 hours.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-20-2016, 02:02 PM   #14687
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It is not as if once you lose 10bi you start winning or something
+1

Being down 10 BI doesn't mean immunity to coolers. The difference between being down 10 BI and 15 BI can be literally one pot in deep games. To say that a hand like that won't happen because of how much you've already lost is absurd.
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Old 05-20-2016, 02:14 PM   #14688
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Sadly, it's how most people in the world think to be true.
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Old 05-20-2016, 02:24 PM   #14689
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By sadly you mean fortunately.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:10 PM   #14690
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It's almost as if the crushers are the guys who run really hot over medium and large samples.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:18 PM   #14691
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Duke wasn't just annointed CRUSHER because he's a smart guy. It took a lot of hard work and studying and he had to make adjustments along the way to continually improve.
+ new dog
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:18 PM   #14692
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By sadly you mean fortunately.

Wp sir
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Old 05-20-2016, 04:08 PM   #14693
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It's almost as if the crushers are the guys who run really hot over medium and large samples.


Welcome back welcome back welcommmmeee back
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Old 05-20-2016, 06:44 PM   #14694
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It's almost as if the crushers are the guys who run really hot over medium and large samples.
Or small samples
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Old 05-21-2016, 03:24 AM   #14695
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If you really are a 2/5 crusher you don't care about your win rate or care about your current winning or losing streak. You play as well as you can every hand and believe in what you are doing not matter the results.
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Old 05-21-2016, 04:32 AM   #14696
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+1

Being down 10 BI doesn't mean immunity to coolers. The difference between being down 10 BI and 15 BI can be literally one pot in deep games. To say that a hand like that won't happen because of how much you've already lost is absurd.
Yeah I agree. The reason I am even focused on it is because I plan to play exclusively 2-5. I wouldn't make the jump if I thought a $16,000 downswing was possible or "standard" for someone who is beating the game. Hence, why I ask other posters if they have experienced such a downswing. Nobody has come on here yet and said "yep, that happened to me."

Considering this is the "win rates" thread, I don't feel it's unreasonable to discuss what you're biggest downswing is at a given stake.
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Old 05-21-2016, 05:52 AM   #14697
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Yeah I agree. The reason I am even focused on it is because I plan to play exclusively 2-5. I wouldn't make the jump if I thought a $16,000 downswing was possible or "standard" for someone who is beating the game. Hence, why I ask other posters if they have experienced such a downswing. Nobody has come on here yet and said "yep, that happened to me."



Considering this is the "win rates" thread, I don't feel it's unreasonable to discuss what you're biggest downswing is at a given stake.


I've experienced a $30k downswing at mainly 5/5 and some 5/10 over about a 4 month stretch. The games i played in at that time were uncapped and pretty deep with tons of variance. 1000bbs is nothing. Clearly you don't understand as I said before. The cards don't give AF how much you're down in the last month or 6 months. Sure at 1/2 NL where everybody might as well just turn their cards face up I can believe you've never been on a 1500bb+ downswing. Not to mention the deepest you've probably played with more than 4 players at a table is 250bbs deep. The answer is that the variance in poker is unpredictable by nature. And just cuz you've never experienced something doesn't mean it doesn't happen to others all the time.
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Old 05-21-2016, 06:42 AM   #14698
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Possible, yes. You can probably learn more about the possible just playing around with a variance calculator or some do it yourself statistics than you can polling in the winrates thread.

The guy you're asking the question based on basically said he lost 24 out of 25 as a 2-1 to 4-1 favorite or something along those lines iirc. Four hour dice rolls happen, etc.
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Old 05-21-2016, 07:33 AM   #14699
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Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale View Post
I've experienced a $30k downswing at mainly 5/5 and some 5/10 over about a 4 month stretch. The games i played in at that time were uncapped and pretty deep with tons of variance. 1000bbs is nothing. Clearly you don't understand as I said before. The cards don't give AF how much you're down in the last month or 6 months. Sure at 1/2 NL where everybody might as well just turn their cards face up I can believe you've never been on a 1500bb+ downswing. Not to mention the deepest you've probably played with more than 4 players at a table is 250bbs deep. The answer is that the variance in poker is unpredictable by nature. And just cuz you've never experienced something doesn't mean it doesn't happen to others all the time.

Yeah, i mean- for sure huge swings are possible even for the best players out there. The big question though, and what i would think many people is asking themself is how good of a player you really are if you go through like a 30K$ swing at 5/5 over 4 months time: deep stacked games or not, that is such a massive swing and i would for sure start to ask myself some serious questions about my actual skillevel if a similar thing happend to me.


I think Johnnys downswing of like losing 19 out of 20 sessions is also so huge that this kind of swings doesent come from pure variance alone. For sure its some big leaks or spewing mixed in also- and also maybe som false sense of how big your edge really is in the games you sit in.
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Old 05-21-2016, 09:50 AM   #14700
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I think Johnnys downswing of like losing 19 out of 20 sessions is also so huge that this kind of swings doesent come from pure variance alone. For sure its some big leaks or spewing mixed in also- and also maybe som false sense of how big your edge really is in the games you sit in.
For sure?

The chasm between possible and likely lies in a normal distribution curve. Given my history at 1/2, 2/5 and 10/10 I would have thought this impossible, but at the end of the day the long run of being a 2:1 - 4:1 favorite means nothing when you are talking about one off encounters.
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