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Old 05-18-2016, 10:06 AM   #14626
ATsai
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
...Can't believe that is your smallest downswing. After running $68/hour for 400 hours I went into a $16,000+ downswing losing 19 of my last 20 sessions at 2/5. Needless to say it has ****ed with my psyche.
Welcome to live poker. Sorry about your being crushed at the live 2/5 tables, but at least you didn't have that horrible downswing at higher stakes. Silver limings...
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:08 AM   #14627
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

mike - I dont want to get into a whole debate around this thing but my thoughts are this.

I dont need 20 or 30 seconds after a hand to know how well I got my $ in. I know it instantly. When I am at the table I want a clear head. When someone gets it in bad or sucks out or whatever...I dont want to be bogged down with info as to "how bad I am running" Thoughts like phuc me now I am running 2586.13 below all in ev for the month have no place in my mind...it simply takes up space and gets in the way.

Running bad sux ass. It is annoying. It happens to everyone. We all deal with it differently. For what its worth every pro who I know whose game I respect does not do AIEV calcs... they shake it off, do their best to simply forget about it...refocus and try to play A+ kick ass poker
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:16 AM   #14628
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
I think that johnnybuz has a bankroll because he worked hard and saved up his money to maintain his roll.

The vast majority of posters in this thread don't really have much of a bankroll because of 1 or both of the following reasons:

1. They aren't good at making money (at poker and/or their job)
2. They aren't good at managing money.

It isn't a question of luck or variance. There are good reasons why most of the posters here are under-rolled or worse at LLSNL.


These statements are both true but sadly are not unique to the poker populace
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:18 AM   #14629
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Calculating AIEV a waste of energy and accomplishes nothing






Lol this guy....STFU Zoltan
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:26 AM   #14630
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
mike - I dont want to get into a whole debate around this thing but my thoughts are this.

I dont need 20 or 30 seconds after a hand to know how well I got my $ in. I know it instantly. When I am at the table I want a clear head. When someone gets it in bad or sucks out or whatever...I dont want to be bogged down with info as to "how bad I am running" Thoughts like phuc me now I am running 2586.13 below all in ev for the month have no place in my mind...it simply takes up space and gets in the way.

Running bad sux ass. It is annoying. It happens to everyone. We all deal with it differently. For what its worth every pro who I know whose game I respect does not do AIEV calcs... they shake it off, do their best to simply forget about it...refocus and try to play A+ kick ass poker
I respect your opinion, but for me doing the calcs does the opposite for me. It doesnt screw my mind up. Running bad probably affect me more emotionally than a lot of experienced players for whatever reason that I cant understand. I will admit that, so it keeps me calm when Im running bad.....and if I ever run above EV hopefully it will keep me humble.
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:31 AM   #14631
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mike do you calculate your AIEV when you get it in bad and get there too?

I mean do whatever you want of course, but it's really pointless and changes nothing. If you need this crutch to convince yourself you are good you probably:

A. Have some pretty big mental leaks
B. Have some leaks in your play
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:56 AM   #14632
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Mike do you calculate your AIEV when you get it in bad and get there too?

I mean do whatever you want of course, but it's really pointless and changes nothing. If you need this crutch to convince yourself you are good you probably:

A. Have some pretty big mental leaks
B. Have some leaks in your play
Obviously. Any hand thats all in before the river. I also have to subtract when I get it in while ahead and win, unless he was drawing dead.

I dont know why people think this is a bad thing. How is it different than running it twice to lower variance? My way just lowers variance on paper. I keep track of my win rate and "adjusted win rate" which at some point should be very close to the same number, although the way its going it could take one hell of a long time. Im running a full $12/hr below EV over 600 hrs.

I probably do have a mental leak. I just admitted that, but this helps me from letting it spill over and become and actual leak that costs me real money.

If I was Johnny and had just lost 19 out of 20 sessions I would be doing everything I could to find out why. He might be playing like garbage or he might be getting the worst luck in history...or both. In the old days we could look back at Pokertracker and at least get some idea. Its much tougher now.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:04 AM   #14633
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
In the old days we could look back at Pokertracker and at least get some idea. Its much tougher now.

You could still do that. Just tabulate your hands in a txt file with the proper formatting and import them into PT4 or HEM.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:06 AM   #14634
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As far as I know, the only ones in my games who habitually calculate their AllinEV are the spots who are donating to the table. I don'T know any good live pros playing 5/10 NL or higher who are calculating AllinEV or other such nonsense.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:08 AM   #14635
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
ok ok the american people have been begging me to post a 2/5 graph with a (legitimate???) sample so here goes

my total 2/5 dating from february of 2014 - May 2016, includes like 7-800 hours of $500max:

Spoiler:


this graph is only deeper 2/5

Spoiler:


longest break-even was like 300 hours

longest stretch under minimum wage was like 500 hours

biggest downswing ~$5.5k lol

biggest upswing upswing $50k in 250 hours

youre welcome

edit:

also, just for fun heres my graph that includes 1/2 and 5/10 and some plo, not a huge difference from total 2/5 graph, but it gives 900 more hours

Spoiler:
Awesome, thanks for posting Duke!

ETA: Also, awesome thoughts on deepstack play. I know as a rec player I've fairly recently simply admitted to myself "I suck at deepstack" and realize where my wheelhouse is (and deepstack ain't it).

GniceresultstooG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-18-2016 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:12 AM   #14636
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
mike - I dont want to get into a whole debate around this thing but my thoughts are this.

I dont need 20 or 30 seconds after a hand to know how well I got my $ in. I know it instantly. When I am at the table I want a clear head. When someone gets it in bad or sucks out or whatever...I dont want to be bogged down with info as to "how bad I am running" Thoughts like phuc me now I am running 2586.13 below all in ev for the month have no place in my mind...it simply takes up space and gets in the way.

Running bad sux ass. It is annoying. It happens to everyone. We all deal with it differently. For what its worth every pro who I know whose game I respect does not do AIEV calcs... they shake it off, do their best to simply forget about it...refocus and try to play A+ kick ass poker
Plus do you count the times when you dodged someone else's OESD, flush draws, or hitting your own draws?

Or simply win with a pair at SD?

You probably don't, because most people count those as "skills" not variance.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:23 AM   #14637
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
this.

jerking yourself off mentally with meaningless stats is meaningless.

doing something that is constructive will actually help

After every session I play I review hands etc. Did I play well? Did I play like a moran? Did I leave $$ on the table? If I left $ on the table (I always do)...what can I do to leave less on the table next time)?
Yeah, +1.

This has always reminded me a bit of M back when he posted a lot in the chat thread, always seemingly tracking how he was running EVwise (sorry M, all due respect bud). And even moreso after his COM from last year regarding tracking hands. On the one hand, I found the tracking hands thing (if even for a lol sample size) did clarify a couple of things for me (that AA/KK make up a huge amount of my profit, and that perhaps my preflop strategy in LP with speculative hands is suspect). But it also started a bad habit of where I've kinda mentally taken note of how I'm running for a session (haven't got my fair share of big pairs, haven't flopped my fair of sets, etc.) which of course is meaningless. I don't feel it distracts me to any great extent, as I still mainly just focus on the hands I **** up, but I don't believe it really helps either.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:25 AM   #14638
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Sheesh, all these mental jerking offs reminded me that I didn't win a single $1500 - $2000 pots in my last session, and there were at least a handful of them.

All I remember was that I lost a $3500 pot.

God, it's so unfair!

Then I realized that I am even for the month.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:57 AM   #14639
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

AIEV is not the only source of variance nor is it even close to the largest contributor to variance. Tracking it gives you one piece to a 500 piece puzzle.
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Old 05-18-2016, 11:58 AM   #14640
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Very nice results duke
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:38 PM   #14641
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
ok ok the american people have been begging me to post a 2/5 graph with a (legitimate???) sample so here goes

my total 2/5 dating from february of 2014 - May 2016, includes like 7-800 hours of $500max:

Spoiler:


this graph is only deeper 2/5

Spoiler:


longest break-even was like 300 hours

longest stretch under minimum wage was like 500 hours

biggest downswing ~$5.5k lol

biggest upswing upswing $50k in 250 hours

youre welcome

edit:

also, just for fun heres my graph that includes 1/2 and 5/10 and some plo, not a huge difference from total 2/5 graph, but it gives 900 more hours

Spoiler:

AIEV graphs or GTFO.
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:09 PM   #14642
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LOL
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:17 PM   #14643
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High vs non-high breakdown please.

Gsemi-seriousG
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:18 PM   #14644
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
AIEV is not the only source of variance nor is it even close to the largest contributor to variance. Tracking it gives you one piece to a 500 piece puzzle.
yeah this...variance comes in upteen forms and you choose to track 1 of them t hat really isn't that important
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Old 05-18-2016, 02:22 PM   #14645
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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19 of 20 losses is insane. Obviously you are running bad, but do you think your edge over the player pool may not be as large as you thought it was?
I think the edge is still there and just as big as it was. During my sessions I still saw the same mistakes, made the same reads as normal, etc., but I found myself getting involved in all-in pots (made hand vs. draw) at a much higher frequency, like 2-3x per session (right tail event), and losing pretty much every single one (left tail event). It's comical to me at this point but I've lost about 24/25 all-in pots during this time ranging from 2:1 to 4:1 favorites.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Welcome to live poker. Sorry about your being crushed at the live 2/5 tables, but at least you didn't have that horrible downswing at higher stakes. Silver limings...
Thanks. Since I've cut out the 1 or 2 BI shot taking on soft nights the BR has been growing quickly again. I think my game requires having 3-4 BI at my disposal so playing with less than that is just handicapping myself and prolonging this agonizing process.
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Old 05-18-2016, 04:23 PM   #14646
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Certainly nothing wrong with tracking all in ev, its never gonna be the difference between you winning at poker and losing at poker. But its just not particularly useful. Its the same as if you only tracked your % of flopped sets and win% in those pots, and i might argue the latter has more to do with how you ran. But as bip said, theyre just single pieces of a large puzzle that youll never even begin to solve.
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Old 05-18-2016, 05:22 PM   #14647
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If tracking your all in EV does nothing more than help you avoid tilt, I'd say for you it is useful. None of the other arguments (pro or con) really matters.





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Old 05-18-2016, 06:29 PM   #14648
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If tracking your all in EV does nothing more than help you avoid tilt, I'd say for you it is useful. None of the other arguments (pro or con) really matters.





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I like calling for setups every hour otherwise I will go on tilt...
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Old 05-18-2016, 06:32 PM   #14649
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I like calling for setups every hour otherwise I will go on tilt...
Whatever works for you.

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Old 05-18-2016, 07:34 PM   #14650
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
If tracking your all in EV does nothing more than help you avoid tilt, I'd say for you it is useful. None of the other arguments (pro or con) really matters.





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Great point.

However, if thinking you are running bad, it could affect your willingness to play draws because "god, I haven't hit a draw in a long time."
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