Is this your downswing from a few months ago or are you on a new one?

Hope it isn't a new one.

This is the same downswing. I dropped down after the 12 successive losses in early March. Since then I have cherry picked the softest of soft berry patches at 2/5 and have still lost 7 of 8.

So I decided to drop 2/5 entirely until my BR is back to allowing 3 bullets at $500-700 a pop. I imagine this will take me through mid-end June.

And yes I hate my situation and am incredibly salty and bitter and wondering "why meeeeeeeeee?"

19 of 20 losses is insane. Obviously you are running bad, but do you think your edge over the player pool may not be as large as you thought it was?

Obv just another live scumbag cheating on his taxes and claiming illegitimate welfare checks imo. Should quit and work at Costco.

Duke

seriously nice work

your entire poast is absolutely fantastic...but this point is critical. Most players will be significantly better served not playing deepstack poker.

I think one of the best and easiest ways to keep your sanity during one of these brutal and unexplainable downswings is to calculate your pot equity on any pot where you get all in.

Basically its the same as "All in EV" or whatever pokertracker calls it.

Im on a ~70 hr breakeven streak and I could easily be wondering WTF is going on. Do I suddenly suck? All I have to do is look at my "all in EV" and see that Im running $2300 under EV in these all in hands just this month. $2300 / 70 hours = $32.80 /hr if I just have avg luck, so Im actually playing fine and just getting **** luck. No adjustments needed.

If I didnt track that number I could easily start losing confidence and start making unneeded adjustments and start playing too passively or too aggressively and I would definitely start tilting and making bad calls which would only make the problem worse.

70 hr b/e shouldnt make you question anything imo

thx squid, hope youre doing alright these days

they denied my welfare application due to failed drug test

edit: and i also pulled up in a brand new car

Totally disagree.

Tracking stuff like AllinEV is a waste of time. You would be better served spending your time on improving your poker game than spending your time to figure out "how lucky/unlucky" you have been lately.

Probably not, but the fact remains that this method will help keep you sane during bad times and at the very least if you add/subtract the EV number from your actual win rate, it will give you an "adjusted win rate" number that will be a lot more accurate a lot quicker.

If it takes 2000 hrs to give you a somewhat realistic win rate number, then using this method I would say your number will be fairly realistic in 500 hrs.

It's such a small part of luck anyway. If you got dealt aces over kings 10 times and never kings against aces but only won seven of them you're going to convince yourself you're running bad, lol.

this.

jerking yourself off mentally with meaningless stats is meaningless.

doing something that is constructive will actually help

After every session I play I review hands etc. Did I play well? Did I play like a moran? Did I leave $$ on the table? If I left $ on the table (I always do)...what can I do to leave less on the table next time)?

Are you joking around, or are you being serious?

You got a wink and a Costco reference, might need to work on your live tells game.

Thought you were joking, but I am hopeless at live tells, so I was not 100% sure.

There's plenty of other ways to run bad, Like hitting more flushes than you should or getting AA vs KK more than KK vs AA. There's no way to track all of that stuff, but you'll never convince me that tracking All in EV is a waste of time. It takes about 20-30 seconds and can be done after you fold the next hand.

That doesnt stop you from studying or working on your game in any other ways that you would otherwise. I review my hands mentally while driving home and think about leaving money on the table as well as doing this.

At least you have a bank roll.

I think that johnnybuz has a bankroll because he worked hard and saved up his money to maintain his roll.

The vast majority of posters in this thread don't really have much of a bankroll because of 1 or both of the following reasons:

1. They aren't good at making money (at poker and/or their job)
2. They aren't good at managing money.

It isn't a question of luck or variance. There are good reasons why most of the posters here are under-rolled or worse at LLSNL.

Welcome to live poker. Sorry about your being crushed at the live 2/5 tables, but at least you didn't have that horrible downswing at higher stakes. Silver limings...

mike - I dont want to get into a whole debate around this thing but my thoughts are this.

I dont need 20 or 30 seconds after a hand to know how well I got my $ in. I know it instantly. When I am at the table I want a clear head. When someone gets it in bad or sucks out or whatever...I dont want to be bogged down with info as to "how bad I am running" Thoughts like phuc me now I am running 2586.13 below all in ev for the month have no place in my mind...it simply takes up space and gets in the way.

Running bad sux ass. It is annoying. It happens to everyone. We all deal with it differently. For what its worth every pro who I know whose game I respect does not do AIEV calcs... they shake it off, do their best to simply forget about it...refocus and try to play A+ kick ass poker

These statements are both true but sadly are not unique to the poker populace

Calculating AIEV a waste of energy and accomplishes nothing






Lol this guy....STFU Zoltan

I respect your opinion, but for me doing the calcs does the opposite for me. It doesnt screw my mind up. Running bad probably affect me more emotionally than a lot of experienced players for whatever reason that I cant understand. I will admit that, so it keeps me calm when Im running bad.....and if I ever run above EV hopefully it will keep me humble.

Mike do you calculate your AIEV when you get it in bad and get there too?

I mean do whatever you want of course, but it's really pointless and changes nothing. If you need this crutch to convince yourself you are good you probably:

A. Have some pretty big mental leaks
B. Have some leaks in your play