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Old 05-18-2016, 12:29 AM   #14601
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Shhh...he doesn't know that number of hours x hourly = profit.
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:33 AM   #14602
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

it is my right to post how i want as long as im not breaking any of the rules on 2p2
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:34 AM   #14603
Richard Parker
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You high?
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:35 AM   #14604
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always

i pretty much dont ever get on this website sober anymore
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:42 AM   #14605
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
ok ok the american people have been begging me to post a 2/5 graph with a (legitimate???) sample so here goes

my total 2/5 dating from february of 2014 - May 2016, includes like 7-800 hours of $500max:

Spoiler:


this graph is only deeper 2/5

Spoiler:


longest break-even was like 300 hours

longest stretch under minimum wage was like 500 hours

biggest downswing ~$5.5k lol

biggest upswing upswing $50k in 250 hours

youre welcome

edit:

also, just for fun heres my graph that includes 1/2 and 5/10 and some plo, not a huge difference from total 2/5 graph, but it gives 900 more hours

Spoiler:
Sick volume and stats. Your win rate is nearly identical at $500 max and deep so not sure what that means.

Can't believe that is your smallest downswing. After running $68/hour for 400 hours I went into a $16,000+ downswing losing 19 of my last 20 sessions at 2/5. Needless to say it has ****ed with my psyche.
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:23 AM   #14606
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Sick volume and stats. Your win rate is nearly identical at $500 max and deep so not sure what that means.

Can't believe that is your smallest downswing. After running $68/hour for 400 hours I went into a $16,000+ downswing losing 19 of my last 20 sessions at 2/5. Needless to say it has ****ed with my psyche.
i just looked at it a few minutes ago, i was going to post it separately but chose to only post the deep one... anyway, it showed my 500max at around 52 and my deep around 62

regardless, its not a huge difference (and now i just realize, maybe thats what you meant??)... i just have a different perspective on it from most regs (i think conventional wisdom of most live regs is that deep is significantly more profitable than shallow, right?) because when i first started playing deep, i thought there would be only a small increase in my WR, but I happened to have a big upswing as soon as I started playing deeper. So then I thought that playing deep games was significantly better than playing shallow. But as I played more deep, I went through a nasty break-even stretch, and then another healthy upswing, and then finally just a long period where I was winning like $40/hr and hugely disappointed as it was going on.

At this point, my opinion changed and I realized a few things about deeper games

1) the increased variance will negatively affect most non-elite poker players because it'll put you on tilt more and make you play your C-game for longer periods while there's more money at stake.

2) you play against much better competition. at the 500max games, most of the fish just give their money away and the regs/pros suck a lot. at 1000max games, everyone still sucks a lot if you work hard and are smart, but i think they suck quite a bit less than your average opponent at a deep 1/3 or shallow 2/5 game. also, these games will usually attract some players in the player pool who are either as good, better, or slightly worse than you are. this # of equally skilled players goes up/down depending on how good you are yourself.

3) there can be huge fluctuations in how much money you make over 500 hour periods, even 1k and 2k hour periods potentially, which i think may be a shock to many inexperienced players. i think i had a 1k hour stretch where i made $80k and another where i made $40k. not that thats an enormous difference, but on the otherhand, at deep 1/3 and shallow 2/5, i have a much more consistent profit amount over 200-hour periods, which would be considered a small timeframe in a 1k 2/5.

i think more time on your c-game, less opportunity to be in super juicy games compared to shallow 2/5, better competition, and potentially even less hands/per hour are all reasons why most people won't see huge differences in their winrates between the two.

and of course, im not saying deep games are tough at all. almost every 1k and 1.5k max 2/5 ive played in has been crushable for a very nice living. but by contrast, in a 500max, you play your Agame more because youre literally never in a tough/annoying spot, you play more fish/whales, you play against less winning players because the game isnt as "fun"/no one wants to be seen "slummin' it"/or whatever irrational reason, you may get more hands per hour, you may have less competition for table change/seat change.

ideally, you just play the game thats most profitable obviously. unless you're an elite poker player, then i guess always play biggest. but i think if you're just a very good/hard working player, on your a-game, have nice br, etc then strictly sticking to the deep game and not even considering the smaller/shallow game might be a mistake.
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Old 05-18-2016, 02:04 AM   #14607
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Sick volume and stats. Your win rate is nearly identical at $500 max and deep so not sure what that means.

Can't believe that is your smallest downswing. After running $68/hour for 400 hours I went into a $16,000+ downswing losing 19 of my last 20 sessions at 2/5. Needless to say it has ****ed with my psyche.
Is this your downswing from a few months ago or are you on a new one?

Hope it isn't a new one.
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Old 05-18-2016, 02:19 AM   #14608
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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
Is this your downswing from a few months ago or are you on a new one?

Hope it isn't a new one.
This is the same downswing. I dropped down after the 12 successive losses in early March. Since then I have cherry picked the softest of soft berry patches at 2/5 and have still lost 7 of 8.

So I decided to drop 2/5 entirely until my BR is back to allowing 3 bullets at $500-700 a pop. I imagine this will take me through mid-end June.

And yes I hate my situation and am incredibly salty and bitter and wondering "why meeeeeeeeee?"
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Old 05-18-2016, 06:31 AM   #14609
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
This is the same downswing. I dropped down after the 12 successive losses in early March. Since then I have cherry picked the softest of soft berry patches at 2/5 and have still lost 7 of 8.

So I decided to drop 2/5 entirely until my BR is back to allowing 3 bullets at $500-700 a pop. I imagine this will take me through mid-end June.

And yes I hate my situation and am incredibly salty and bitter and wondering "why meeeeeeeeee?"
19 of 20 losses is insane. Obviously you are running bad, but do you think your edge over the player pool may not be as large as you thought it was?
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:10 AM   #14610
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The graph clearly shows profit, what good do your little squiggles do?
Obv just another live scumbag cheating on his taxes and claiming illegitimate welfare checks imo. Should quit and work at Costco.

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Old 05-18-2016, 08:20 AM   #14611
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
1) the increased variance will negatively affect most non-elite poker players because it'll put you on tilt more and make you play your C-game for longer periods while there's more money at stake.
Duke

seriously nice work

your entire poast is absolutely fantastic...but this point is critical. Most players will be significantly better served not playing deepstack poker.
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:26 AM   #14612
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I think one of the best and easiest ways to keep your sanity during one of these brutal and unexplainable downswings is to calculate your pot equity on any pot where you get all in.

Basically its the same as "All in EV" or whatever pokertracker calls it.

Im on a ~70 hr breakeven streak and I could easily be wondering WTF is going on. Do I suddenly suck? All I have to do is look at my "all in EV" and see that Im running $2300 under EV in these all in hands just this month. $2300 / 70 hours = $32.80 /hr if I just have avg luck, so Im actually playing fine and just getting **** luck. No adjustments needed.

If I didnt track that number I could easily start losing confidence and start making unneeded adjustments and start playing too passively or too aggressively and I would definitely start tilting and making bad calls which would only make the problem worse.
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:45 AM   #14613
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70 hr b/e shouldnt make you question anything imo
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:51 AM   #14614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Duke

seriously nice work

your entire poast is absolutely fantastic...but this point is critical. Most players will be significantly better served not playing deepstack poker.
thx squid, hope youre doing alright these days
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:52 AM   #14615
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Originally Posted by WOAT1Time View Post
Obv just another live scumbag cheating on his taxes and claiming illegitimate welfare checks imo. Should quit and work at Costco.

they denied my welfare application due to failed drug test

edit: and i also pulled up in a brand new car
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:09 AM   #14616
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I think one of the best and easiest ways to keep your sanity during one of these brutal and unexplainable downswings is to calculate your pot equity on any pot where you get all in.

Basically its the same as "All in EV" or whatever pokertracker calls it.

Im on a ~70 hr breakeven streak and I could easily be wondering WTF is going on. Do I suddenly suck? All I have to do is look at my "all in EV" and see that Im running $2300 under EV in these all in hands just this month. $2300 / 70 hours = $32.80 /hr if I just have avg luck, so Im actually playing fine and just getting **** luck. No adjustments needed.

If I didnt track that number I could easily start losing confidence and start making unneeded adjustments and start playing too passively or too aggressively and I would definitely start tilting and making bad calls which would only make the problem worse.
Totally disagree.

Tracking stuff like AllinEV is a waste of time. You would be better served spending your time on improving your poker game than spending your time to figure out "how lucky/unlucky" you have been lately.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:10 AM   #14617
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
70 hr b/e shouldnt make you question anything imo
Probably not, but the fact remains that this method will help keep you sane during bad times and at the very least if you add/subtract the EV number from your actual win rate, it will give you an "adjusted win rate" number that will be a lot more accurate a lot quicker.

If it takes 2000 hrs to give you a somewhat realistic win rate number, then using this method I would say your number will be fairly realistic in 500 hrs.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:12 AM   #14618
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It's such a small part of luck anyway. If you got dealt aces over kings 10 times and never kings against aces but only won seven of them you're going to convince yourself you're running bad, lol.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:28 AM   #14619
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Totally disagree.

Tracking stuff like AllinEV is a waste of time. You would be better served spending your time on improving your poker game than spending your time to figure out "how lucky/unlucky" you have been lately.
this.

jerking yourself off mentally with meaningless stats is meaningless.

doing something that is constructive will actually help

After every session I play I review hands etc. Did I play well? Did I play like a moran? Did I leave $$ on the table? If I left $ on the table (I always do)...what can I do to leave less on the table next time)?
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:30 AM   #14620
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Originally Posted by WOAT1Time View Post
Obv just another live scumbag cheating on his taxes and claiming illegitimate welfare checks imo. Should quit and work at Costco.

Are you joking around, or are you being serious?
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:34 AM   #14621
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Are you joking around, or are you being serious?
You got a wink and a Costco reference, might need to work on your live tells game.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:39 AM   #14622
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Originally Posted by WOAT1Time View Post
You got a wink and a Costco reference, might need to work on your live tells game.
Thought you were joking, but I am hopeless at live tells, so I was not 100% sure.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:46 AM   #14623
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There's plenty of other ways to run bad, Like hitting more flushes than you should or getting AA vs KK more than KK vs AA. There's no way to track all of that stuff, but you'll never convince me that tracking All in EV is a waste of time. It takes about 20-30 seconds and can be done after you fold the next hand.

That doesnt stop you from studying or working on your game in any other ways that you would otherwise. I review my hands mentally while driving home and think about leaving money on the table as well as doing this.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:52 AM   #14624
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
This is the same downswing. I dropped down after the 12 successive losses in early March. Since then I have cherry picked the softest of soft berry patches at 2/5 and have still lost 7 of 8.

So I decided to drop 2/5 entirely until my BR is back to allowing 3 bullets at $500-700 a pop. I imagine this will take me through mid-end June.

And yes I hate my situation and am incredibly salty and bitter and wondering "why meeeeeeeeee?"
At least you have a bank roll.
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:02 AM   #14625
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I think that johnnybuz has a bankroll because he worked hard and saved up his money to maintain his roll.

The vast majority of posters in this thread don't really have much of a bankroll because of 1 or both of the following reasons:

1. They aren't good at making money (at poker and/or their job)
2. They aren't good at managing money.

It isn't a question of luck or variance. There are good reasons why most of the posters here are under-rolled or worse at LLSNL.
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