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Old 04-22-2016, 11:46 PM   #14351
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
But doesn't this happen every 25 pages itt or so?
Yep I was the guy 50 pages ago before I experienced my first doom switch around the 1200 hour mark.
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Old 04-23-2016, 12:17 AM   #14352
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Why? Because you cant? There are quite a few people here who have posted win rates in that vicinity.
What I or anyone else is capable of is irrelevant imo. I mean ffs I'm sure if I ran hot enough I could get $100/hr wr at a 2/5 game over 1500+ hours. What is relevant is having a realistic expectation of your hourly based on the average player pool you play in. $50/hr is not realistic imo unless you travel all over or live in very expensive places.

I can think of maybe 3 posters I know that make roughly $50/hr playing 2/5 with some 5/10. Tbh they aren't world class players / aren't too different in play styles / methodology from other tags grinding it out for way way less. The number of abc tags (and let's be real here they do nothing more than play a great abc / technical game) averaging $50hr over a huge sample is almost null and can be attributed to lol live poker variance.
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Old 04-23-2016, 12:24 AM   #14353
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What I or anyone else is capable of is irrelevant imo. I mean ffs I'm sure if I ran hot enough I could get $100/hr wr at a 2/5 game over 1500+ hours. What is relevant is having a realistic expectation of your hourly based on the average player pool you play in. $50/hr is not realistic imo unless you travel all over or live in very expensive places.
It is very possible to achieve $50+/hr in certain locale, and possible in even lesser popular locales, but the volume might be limited if the goal is to maintain that WR.

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I can think of maybe 3 posters I know that make roughly $50/hr playing 2/5 with some 5/10. Tbh they aren't world class players / aren't too different in play styles / methodology from other tags grinding it out for way way less. The number of abc tags (and let's be real here they do nothing more than play a great abc / technical game) averaging $50hr over a huge sample is almost null and can be attributed to lol live poker variance.
They probably make far less than you think.

There are very few good players out there with ability to grind out a strong WR, even fewer with mental toughness to maintain it longer than few months.
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Old 04-23-2016, 01:00 AM   #14354
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over 9k hours at 2/5 since bf....still must be on that sick heater since im still well over 50 bux per hour. I am waiting for the bottom to fall out.
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Old 04-23-2016, 01:15 AM   #14355
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1 out of probably 1000. Good job for having the skill set and the run good. Also a big lol considering your wr 9+ thousand hours ago was probably huge which does wonders for your average numbers. If you think 50hr will be viable in 5-10 years time idk what to say.

Correct me if I'm mistaken but you had to move locals i.e. a completely different state to chase the loose money. Sick life bro. Bottom will fall out unless you pick up your life yet again and move or switch to other games. I do not envy you.
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Old 04-23-2016, 01:18 AM   #14356
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You should be focusing on improving your poker skills, not here hating.

I am already a great player, so I can afford to spare some time.
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Old 04-23-2016, 01:20 AM   #14357
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You should be focusing on improving your poker skills, not here hating.

I am already a great player, so I can afford to spare some time.
Nah no hate. Just mind boggling how people here think how easy and sustainable 10bb/hr is
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Old 04-23-2016, 01:37 AM   #14358
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lol when I left vegas my w/r was the highest it had been since BF.

I did not leave to chase loose money my friend. I left cuz there was no longer anything holding me out west. I am an avid outdoorsman...and I introduced my woman to the wonderful world of hanggliding. Something I have been passionate about since my youth. In fact my avitar is me at about 15 or 16 thousand feet MSL over lake tahoe. A buddy of mine owns a flight park down here and we recreate there quite a bit.

Beating these games for 10bb per hour is not rocket science. It does however take a lot of hard work, focus, discipline, and attention to detail. I happen to know more than a few people who have made quite a bit of $$$ over the years doing so. I raised a kid and sent her off to college.

I personally wouldnt envy me either. Not becausethe future is scary...I am not even remotely concerned. Poker is pretty boring and the casino is a nasty environment. However, I am lucky in that I have passions and pursuits that enable me to have a nice balanced little life
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:07 AM   #14359
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It's not rocket science to you, but it is brain surgery to most.
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:09 AM   #14360
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I call bs on that. Pretty much every poker friend/ acquaintance I know live and online has seen a big cut in hourly and lack of game selection. Most I know have moved on or are currently working towards getting out of poker. They wouldn't be getting out if they were still making the same hourly 6 years ago. Get real. Even the general sentiment from guys I don't talk to on this forum is the same- everyone is making less/ sharing the same piece of pie etc.

also goes against the crap you've said early about games in Vegas being completely dead. I could dig it up but it's not a big deal to me. Also don't expect to get an honest answer / clarity from a stranger on the Internet especially on a lol gambling forum where people's ego/ reputation means a lot to them.

Guys who do have a strong skill set and work ethic who have the potential to ok money have forgotten how much hard work and time they spent at it earlier on. Easy to forget considering nlh is a fixed game- solve a ton of the spots and you don't have to really think too hard about it again

And as I said before I don't envy anyone who has to pick up their life/ travel all over to make money doing something they hate / bores the life out of them.

Kind of a derail but poker pros are such tools: they think their own success at what is essentially a small business was all hard work. Ask a real successful business owner who has a solid head on their shoulders and they would say hard work, discipline AND and incredible amount of luck. Never hear that from a lol career poker pro

Last edited by Siculamente; 04-23-2016 at 02:16 AM.
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:50 AM   #14361
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LOL, reads like someone who wishes he can beat poker for 10bb/hr.
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:57 AM   #14362
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Lol try trolling better and d riding less Richard
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Old 04-23-2016, 05:52 AM   #14363
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Lol try trolling better and d riding less Richard
you sound really jealous of people that are better than you
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Old 04-23-2016, 10:57 AM   #14364
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thats a-ok pal. But if you knew anything about me you would know that I tell everyone how incredibly lucky I was when I started gamboolin that I was surrounded with people who were significantly smarter than I am. I have also stated that if I worked as hard at being a doctor as I have at gamboolin I would have been a darn good one (meaning I have in fact worked my ass off). I am sorry that you are so bitter at life and not very good at gamboolin.

Heading out right now to go hanggliding and enjoy the day.
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Old 04-23-2016, 11:07 AM   #14365
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I cant hit a gold ball 300 yards....therefore it must not be possible.
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Old 04-23-2016, 11:43 AM   #14366
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Just about every one of us were incredibly lucky in the beginning of our poker journey to be where we are today.

Not sure if it's always a blessing.
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Old 04-23-2016, 11:52 AM   #14367
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Squid = life badass and actually on the humble side not the brag side. (just to set that record straight)

There are bad 2/5 games.
There are good 2/5 games.

... play the good ones, play well, make $.
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Old 04-23-2016, 12:16 PM   #14368
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And as I said before I don't envy anyone who has to pick up their life/ travel all over to make money doing something they hate / bores the life out of them.
What about people who pick up their life to travel all over to make money doing something they love?
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:02 PM   #14369
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Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post

Guys who do have a strong skill set and work ethic who have the potential to ok money have forgotten how much hard work and time they spent at it earlier on. Easy to forget considering nlh is a fixed game- solve a ton of the spots and you don't have to really think too hard about it again

And as I said before I don't envy anyone who has to pick up their life/ travel all over to make money doing something they hate / bores the life out of them.
guys live poker is solved

guys.
guys



also whats the point of this thread if someone spends half a year, posts a 900 hour sample and some live poker rigtard pops in to say about how if you did it you just ran hot


I'm not telling bad beat stories but there is a universe in which my 47 bux an hour would be closer to 65, I lost almost every 3k+ pot I've played in that sample.

look distribution, all in EV, they are factors but as it's been point out in this thread many times the harder you crush the less likely those factors are going to create downswings/break even stretches because you are just winning too much in all other spots.


sure I see less lazy, entitled leaky/weak regs in the games than I did a few years ago because they in themselves had very poor fundamentals but were kept afloat by the lack of real crushers in the games and the amount of pure whales who fell for their small bag of tricks.

you have to understand due to the rake and the limited money in a pool the best player in the world can only win 80 prob dollars an hour in 500 cap 2/5s. so if you're winning 50 just clicking buttons verses whales there is no reason to study, save money, work on mental game, become a reg beater, move up, self challenge. All these people did was show up get dumped a buy in and go home. I think the softer the games the weaker the habits of even the apex winners.

tl'dr since you cant truly account for variance you just have to stick to the statistical truth that the bigger the sample the harder it is for you to come near 10/bb no matter how you run.


oh and most live downswings are winners tilt and bad mental game and not actually doomswitches

don't @ me
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Old 04-23-2016, 02:53 PM   #14370
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I do have raw, negative feelings in general about poker/ gaming industry but that does not make me a bitter person, nor does it mean i don't make money playing poker. All it means is I have a realistic, skeptic view which is good imo.

its funny that people focus on / only comment about my tone and don't want to get into a debate or refute facts or some realistic viewpoints i've made in this thread. much easier to blast away at low hanging fruit to discredit someone

i guess on this forum if a person isn't stroking someones genius/ ego it must mean they are a bitter conceited hater. tbh if you can't look past my tone and try to look objectively and realistically at the facts- taking in information from all sides then you guys need to grow some skin.

squid- i never said you weren't good at poker or that your winrate was attributed to only running hot. if you think that way then please reread what i said itt. however i did imply that you have a huge ego if you think 10bb/hr is normal and sustainable without requiring any kind of run good (and theres lots of different forms of run good u kno that).

again, having a good dose of skepticism is important especially for those looking at this forum and wanting to get their feet wet in poker.

nobody has to or even should take everything i say as truth. nor should they blindly believe what squid or anyother person itt says is a normal wr. take in all the information available (i suggest skimming other sub forums ie mid hi fr) i'm just even more skeptical than usual taking someones word who is looking for some kind of recognition/ ego boost, and doesn't address things head on and instead words his way around or just completely ignores it... especially in this industry

now i guess the joke is on me from even attempting to reason with people on a gambling forum that MAYBE being objective and realistic is the best approach. however i htink its worth it to try even if only one person lurking this thread stops dreaming and starts thinking.

edit: there certainly are people who average 10bb/hr over a large samples. It's an outlier that requires unparalleled work ethic and of course some run good. some people do actually make a living/ raise a family on poker- again an outlier.

take a step back and look at an even bigger picture. someone making 10bb/hr or $50/hr at 2/5 is only making roughly the equivalent of ~50k compared to a real job. somebody busting their ass for 50k and being middle aged sucks considering all the other great opportunities there are. just all my opinion tho

and ya i come off as an ass, but im not asking anyone to be my buddy. im asking people itt to think objectively/ for themselves. gl everyone

Last edited by Siculamente; 04-23-2016 at 03:19 PM.
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Old 04-23-2016, 04:03 PM   #14371
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

One every 20 pages.
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Old 04-23-2016, 04:50 PM   #14372
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Everyone I've seen has said that 10bb is crushing, even at 1/2.
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Old 04-23-2016, 06:20 PM   #14373
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How much is my IRS refund gonna be when I tell them I lost $37k last year? Is that not how it works?
they hate us because they ain't us

or maybe just hate everybody.
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Old 04-23-2016, 06:31 PM   #14374
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I figured I'd post again after hitting ~750 hours. I've been able to put in a bit more hours since I quit my job in January.

1|2 NLHE (mostly $200 cap, some $300-$400 cap):

Sessions: 116
Hours: 716.4
Profit: $18,806
Win-rate: $26.25/h
Graph:

2|5 NLHE ($500 cap)

Sessions: 6
Hours: 32.9
Profit: $5148
Win-rate: $156.47/h

Obviously I've run good over a tiny sample, but it is a really juicy game, too (regular $10-$15 straddles, 3! pots regularly going 4-5 ways)

Totals:

Hours: 749.3
Win-rate: 13.9 BB/h
SD: 99.5 BB/h
Win-rate 95% confidence interval [6.8, 21.0] BB/h

I know I still have a lot of leaks in my game and I haven't had any significant downswings (no more than 10 BIs or 100 hours). I'm quite likely on the positive side of variance. I've been dealing with some stress recently which is effecting my play (not poker related), and the room I've put most of my hours into just upped the rake, so maybe that will take me down a notch.

I have a tiny tournament sample. They are diverse formats and mostly fields of 20-30.

Tournament:
Count: 32
Profit: $2795
Average ROI: 104%
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Old 04-23-2016, 06:52 PM   #14375
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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over 9k hours at 2/5 since bf....still must be on that sick heater since im still well over 50 bux per hour. I am waiting for the bottom to fall out.

graph?
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