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Old 04-22-2016, 04:49 PM   #14326
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Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
I most definitely am.

i mean look, if we could somehow compile all the hands of these "crushers" then without a doubt we would see how well they run specifically in 3b pots/ all ins but they're not smart enough to realize it or their egos are too big to admit that yes, they play the standard abc tag game and run well in the right spots. nothing special.

all you have to do is listen to some of these guys about their "bad beats" or just look at the smug look on their faces.

def jelly its gotta be amazing to live in a bubble
This is exactly what a person who cant beat the game for a high win rate would say. I keep track of every all in hand to see where I'm running vs my EV. I also apparently dont play a standard ABC TAG game because I get hammered by 2+2ers for how bad my line is in every one of my HH posts so thats not it either.

I still make plenty of mistakes and Im at 10BB/hr so maybe the real answer is that 1) you aren't that good and 2) that 10BB/hr is not the ceiling that people here think.
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Old 04-22-2016, 04:58 PM   #14327
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FWIW, I am -3000 in river during last 2 sessions with KK.
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:01 PM   #14328
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FWIW, I am -3000 in river during last 2 sessions with KK.

Fold rivers you ****ing station??
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:02 PM   #14329
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Mike, take a breath and relax. You sound like a broken record. You catch flack because you come across as a pompous ignoramus unable to accept constructive criticism, not due to your often bizarre lines.
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:11 PM   #14330
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Fold rivers you ****ing station??


Must...not...appear...weak!
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:17 PM   #14331
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This is exactly what a person who cant beat the game for a high win rate would say. I keep track of every all in hand to see where I'm running vs my EV. I also apparently dont play a standard ABC TAG game because I get hammered by 2+2ers for how bad my line is in every one of my HH posts so thats not it either.



I still make plenty of mistakes and Im at 10BB/hr so maybe the real answer is that 1) you aren't that good and 2) that 10BB/hr is not the ceiling that people here think.

LOL, isn't your win % somewhere in the high 70?

Judging by your posts and that high %, you are probably running hotter than sun.
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:51 PM   #14332
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This is exactly what a person who cant beat the game for a high win rate would say. I keep track of every all in hand to see where I'm running vs my EV. I also apparently dont play a standard ABC TAG game because I get hammered by 2+2ers for how bad my line is in every one of my HH posts so thats not it either.



I still make plenty of mistakes and Im at 10BB/hr so maybe the real answer is that 1) you aren't that good and 2) that 10BB/hr is not the ceiling that people here think.

People who can't beat the game may well say that. But it doesn't mean it's not true also.

DGAF made a solid post in mid stakes about this last month.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...php?p=49378362

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9-handed 2-blind (and nothing else) live no limit is --maybe it became this way over recent years as the game has evolved, or maybe it’s always been this way and I just couldn’t see it when I was green/ran hot af myself-- a huge variance festival wherein ALL the biggest winners at EVERY casino are simply on massive heaters.

Almost all of today’s “top (full ring) players” glide into their local rooms with a confidence (often a smugness) that no person with a trained eye wrt variance could ever have, and they just bink, bink, bink, fade, fade, fade, cooler, cooler, cooler all over the place, amassing chips (and fan boys) at a mind blowing rate…

Some of their opponents who play ~ as well as they do (often signif better) aren’t even winning, and they haven’t been/won’t be for a while---> variance paths can remain the same for a VERY long time (mainly because “time” in live poker is measured in hours, days, weeks, months, years- not in actual # of hands dealt- which we can just never get a true sample of no matter how long we play)…

And then of course variance paths can/will change instantly as well. While most of the players running far below expectation won’t stick it out long enough/they will be beaten into submission too much to ever bask in their own heater glory when/if it comes (***there is no guarantee at all you will ever run even close to as hot as the people blazing away at your respective casinos- they are outliers, but in all likelihood you will run at least “good” for a while if you keep plugging away), most of the people currently scooping up 300-500 bbs a day (“easy”) will in fact stick it out long enough to see at least a signif dip (if not a complete plummet) in their bink/fade/cooler frequencies...

And sadly, for the rest of their careers/time in live poker, almost all ^^^ people will be left sitting at the table with sad looks on their faces, chasing their long lost heaters (never understanding/acknowledging how anomalous they were) and complaining to anyone who will (pretend to) listen about “how bad (they) run.”
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Old 04-22-2016, 05:55 PM   #14333
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Yeh win % in high 70's seems absurd to me. Then again that stat is probably meaningless in terms of projecting winrate. I guess certain styles could obtain that over long samples idk. I'm just under 1200 hrs and no where near that. I'd imagine if I was my winrate would be asinine. But after studying my numbers I came to the conclusion play more 5/10 OBV. #whatsamplesize



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Old 04-22-2016, 06:02 PM   #14334
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I hit a milestone of 100 sessions since learning there were poker apps to record your sessions.



Oh right here.

If I win 78% of my sessions and maintain my average win per session, my WR would be god-like.
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Old 04-22-2016, 06:03 PM   #14335
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Yeh win % in high 70's seems absurd to me. Then again that stat is probably meaningless in terms of projecting winrate. I guess certain styles could obtain that over long samples idk. I'm just under 1200 hrs and no where near that. I'd imagine if I was my winrate would be asinine. But after studying my numbers I came to the conclusion play more 5/10 OBV. #whatsamplesize


Of course win % is meaningless. It's so arbitrary. When people spout off bragging they have a high win % I chuckle a little inside because it means they really don't get it

It's kind of like a person saying a pitcher is a bad pitcher solely based off their win/loss record
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Old 04-22-2016, 06:38 PM   #14336
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Oh right here.

If I win 78% of my sessions and maintain my average win per session, my WR would be god-like.
Idc enough to read back through the thread but is the claim that 78% winning sessions (which means nothing) achievable because it happened over 475 hours?

Spoiler:
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Old 04-22-2016, 06:43 PM   #14337
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In most spots, every winner is going to play a TAG game. You can't consistently bluff your way into pots and consistently put pressure on your opponents in every situation. I think however the true crushers can pick and choose the correct spots to LAG it up whereas the TAGs might not be able to or might not want to take the LAG line for fear of higher variance.

The only times that I have seen players play a consistent LAG style and walk away winners have been when they were running hot. They usually win a few pots to start, get a big ego, and then crash and burn quite miserably when even the fish start to catch onto their gimmick.
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:00 PM   #14338
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This is exactly what a person who cant beat the game for a high win rate would say. I keep track of every all in hand to see where I'm running vs my EV. I also apparently dont play a standard ABC TAG game because I get hammered by 2+2ers for how bad my line is in every one of my HH posts so thats not it either.

I still make plenty of mistakes and Im at 10BB/hr so maybe the real answer is that 1) you aren't that good and 2) that 10BB/hr is not the ceiling that people here think.
Lol!?!

Games where wr of 10bb/hr are attainable are generally very loose and showdown happy. A person needs winning hands at showdown in order to realize his ev. Yeah there are deep games where the wr is attainable and showdown matter less but it's still very very significant to a winners bottom line.

If you run bad in the all in spots (again where most people get their crazy high wr from) you aren't going to be making anywhere near 10bb/hr imo
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:03 PM   #14339
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LOL, isn't your win % somewhere in the high 70?

Judging by your posts and that high %, you are probably running hotter than sun.
No. Its not $70. Its about $50.

Edit...sorry I though you meant my hourly. Yes, my session win % is high 70's, but I normally dont have any huge winning sessions. The most Ive won in any session out of those 100 sessions is $1296. The most Ive lost is $1250

Last edited by MikeStarr; 04-22-2016 at 07:08 PM.
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:05 PM   #14340
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Lol!?!

Games where wr of 10bb/hr are attainable are generally very loose and showdown happy. A person needs winning hands at showdown in order to realize his ev. Yeah there are deep games where the wr is attainable and showdown matter less but it's still very very significant to a winners bottom line.

If you run bad in the all in spots (again where most people get their crazy high wr from) you aren't going to be making anywhere near 10bb/hr imo
I agree with that. I'm just saying that 10BBs/hr is reachable while not running hot or cold. Just running normal.
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:34 PM   #14341
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How unusual is it that I refuse to look at my stats? I know about how many hours I've got, but no clue about win rate or total profit.
Well if every poker player was paying taxes according to the IRS's rules, whining about IRS insanity would be the 2nd most common BBV, trailing only the time they underbet AA. As nobody talks about it, and everyone gives me a strange look whenever I mention "taxes," it suggests that record keeping is not on the minds of 99% of players.
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:52 PM   #14342
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Well if every poker player was paying taxes according to the IRS's rules, whining about IRS insanity would be the 2nd most common BBV, trailing only the time they underbet AA. As nobody talks about it, and everyone gives me a strange look whenever I mention "taxes," it suggests that record keeping is not on the minds of 99% of players.
How much is my IRS refund gonna be when I tell them I lost $37k last year? Is that not how it works?
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:54 PM   #14343
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Idc enough to read back through the thread but is the claim that 78% winning sessions (which means nothing) achievable because it happened over 475 hours?

Spoiler:
Don't lie, you care!

Ya, he's basically saying that 10bb/hr is not the ceiling because he did that making $3437342 worth of mistakes in 475 hours.
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:56 PM   #14344
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No. Its not $70. Its about $50.

Edit...sorry I though you meant my hourly. Yes, my session win % is high 70's, but I normally dont have any huge winning sessions. The most Ive won in any session out of those 100 sessions is $1296. The most Ive lost is $1250
People in a heater never acknowledge it; to them, it's just all skills.

And yet when the opposite is taking place, it's always variance.
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Old 04-22-2016, 08:04 PM   #14345
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I never said winning 78% of sessions is sustainable or that it means anything in and of itself. I just posted my stats. Anyone can interpret them however they like. Ive won 10 out of 11 sessions since posting that.

Im actually surprised more people dont have higher winning percentages than they do considering that most people seem to play much longer sessions than I do. If you are a winning player, the longer your sessions are the higher your winning % should be. But again, it doesnt matter other than it feels better leaving the casino after having won that day than it does after losing.
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Old 04-22-2016, 08:12 PM   #14346
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I agree with that. I'm just saying that 10BBs/hr is reachable while not running hot or cold. Just running normal.
And I'm saying youre out of your mind if you think someone can make $50/hr running even at 2/5 unless they are playing in insanely awesome games
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Old 04-22-2016, 10:11 PM   #14347
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And I'm saying youre out of your mind if you think someone can make $50/hr running even at 2/5 unless they are playing in insanely awesome games
Why? Because you cant? There are quite a few people here who have posted win rates in that vicinity.
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Old 04-22-2016, 10:18 PM   #14348
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Why? Because you cant? There are quite a few people here who have posted win rates in that vicinity.
I'm sorry are you basing this whole thing on that 475 hour sample or is there more that I am missing?
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Old 04-22-2016, 10:19 PM   #14349
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Don't lie, you care!

Ya, he's basically saying that 10bb/hr is not the ceiling because he did that making $3437342 worth of mistakes in 475 hours.
But doesn't this happen every 25 pages itt or so?
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Old 04-22-2016, 10:31 PM   #14350
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And I'm saying youre out of your mind if you think someone can make $50/hr running even at 2/5 unless they are playing in insanely awesome games
Most 2/5 games are at least somewhat awesome...
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