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Old 03-18-2016, 07:46 PM   #14151
spacerat
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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Originally Posted by erpdlof View Post
winning players are winning players because they win
ya but my question is regarding variance. it's possible for good online players to have downswings of losing over like 20k+ hands so is it possible for a good live player to have a downswing that last an entire year?
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Old 03-18-2016, 07:56 PM   #14152
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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ya but my question is regarding variance. it's possible for good online players to have downswings of losing over like 20k+ hands so is it possible for a good live player to have a downswing that last an entire year?
I personally have never had a losing quarter. None of my pals who are perfessionals have ever had losing years...and I know quite a few. Im sure there is some one some where who is the unluckiest player ever who that has happened to but no one whose game I respect has been that unfortunate
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Old 03-19-2016, 01:34 AM   #14153
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

Ask in WR thread, need number of hours per quarter, assumed WR, etc.
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Old 03-19-2016, 05:14 AM   #14154
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

A professional player might play about 50,000 hands in a year. Play around with this page: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

It is not perfect, but it is a good model to approximate the types of variance you could see. A professional playing 50k hands at 40 BB/100 WR and 200 BB/100 SD has only a .0004% chance of losing, or 1/250,000.
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Old 03-19-2016, 05:55 AM   #14155
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I think it was $50/yr. I was ok with that for the opportunity to not have 15k just lying around waiting to get burned up/stolen. Plus I felt like a gangster getting into my box to hide stacks of hundos (autocorrected to Hindus).
Why do you think your bank is fireproof?
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Old 03-19-2016, 05:58 AM   #14156
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

mpethybridge felt the need to point out once that he's never had a losing year, so he definitely thinks it's possible. And he views himself as a winning player.
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Old 03-19-2016, 06:44 AM   #14157
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Fire departments
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Old 03-19-2016, 09:16 AM   #14158
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Why do you think your bank is fireproof?
Lol are you serious with this?
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Old 03-19-2016, 10:26 AM   #14159
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Lol are you serious with this?
FWIW if it were to "burn to the ground" or any other random event that results in you losing your money that money is gone. FDIC doesnt protect safety deposit boxes with money in them. I mean its obviously rare it would be lost but how rare is it your house burns down or gets robbed? Honestly I'd rather just invest in a decent safe for my home. Most all quality ones are fireproof and waterproof and they can be bolted to the floor. Ain't nobody coming to rob your 20k roll Oceans Eleven style. That **** is more than safe. And you aren't locked out say on a weekend or other random hours a bank may be closed.
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Old 03-19-2016, 10:27 AM   #14160
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My mistake didn't realize we were talking about boxes.
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Old 03-19-2016, 12:02 PM   #14161
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That's all well and good unless you live in an apartment like I did. Oh and maybe didn't want to purchase an expensive safe. I'd say it's much less likely that the bank will burn then your random house/apartment.
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Old 03-19-2016, 12:37 PM   #14162
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
That's all well and good unless you live in an apartment like I did. Oh and maybe didn't want to purchase an expensive safe. I'd say it's much less likely that the bank will burn then your random house/apartment.
Understandable but a $200-300 safe does the trick. Most of those would be fireproof. Just saying a bank is not as safe as people think with regards to safe deposit boxes and large sums of money. Banks are safe cuz you're insured when it's in an actual bank account. And just the convience of always having access to it doesn't hurt. Still very unlikely anything happens in either place. Just my 2 cents
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Old 03-20-2016, 05:37 AM   #14163
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No one knows what's in a safety deposit box, that's the point of having it. So cash isn't insured. If you put it in an acct that's FDIC insured, the taxes you're paying on that cash is like a one time insurance premium.

Also, what do you do in your house that makes it so much more likely to burn down?
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Old 03-20-2016, 05:47 AM   #14164
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
mpethybridge felt the need to point out once that he's never had a losing year, so he definitely thinks it's possible. And he views himself as a winning player.
And this was supposed to be in a thread about winning players having losing years, don't know how it got posted here.
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Old 03-21-2016, 12:04 AM   #14165
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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Originally Posted by spacerat View Post
is it possible for a winning player to have a losing year?

i know they could maybe lose money a few months in a row but would a good player almost always come out on top playing full time for a year?
Maybe not so much cash players, but I believe Jonathan Little has had a losing year at tournament poker.
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Old 03-21-2016, 01:16 AM   #14166
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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No one knows what's in a safety deposit box, that's the point of having it. So cash isn't insured. If you put it in an acct that's FDIC insured, the taxes you're paying on that cash is like a one time insurance premium.

Also, what do you do in your house that makes it so much more likely to burn down?
Living. Cooking. Smoking cigars

Electrical fires are common right?
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Old 03-21-2016, 02:30 AM   #14167
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also blow torching cock roaches.
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Old 03-21-2016, 08:41 AM   #14168
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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Originally Posted by flowrider View Post
Maybe not so much cash players, but I believe Jonathan Little has had a losing year at tournament poker.
It is quite easy for tournament players to have a losing year, mainly because you only get to play 100 or so live tournaments per year (the equivalent to one weekend of play online). That being said, I had a marginally profitable 2015 despite no huge scores. That is lucky!

Check out this link from NoahSD's blog about variance in mtts:
http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/mtt-pros/

As for live cash games, it is nearly impossible to have a losing year if you are a decently winning player and put in a lot of volume. About 5 years ago I played a lot of $5/$10 and $10/$20 at Bellagio with a 12bb/hour putting in 50 hours per week and came nowhere close to having a losing month. If you have a smaller win rate, you should expect much larger swings.
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Old 03-21-2016, 10:25 AM   #14169
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does anybody know that Indian guy who plays 1/2 at venetian? Bose headphones, designer clothes, he's there every day and he always has 800—1k+ stacks. He seems to be destroying the games.
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Old 03-21-2016, 11:02 AM   #14170
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Does anybody know that Indian guy who plays 1/2 at venetian? Bose headphones, designer clothes, he's there every day and he always has 800—1k+ stacks. He seems to be destroying the games.
Yeah, but how much does he lose?
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Old 03-21-2016, 11:48 AM   #14171
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If your money is long enough, your luck will eventually turn around. Seen plenty of reg-grinders that get in for 2-4 BI all the time. They eventually wake up with a big hand and get paid off getting called light.
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Old 03-21-2016, 12:14 PM   #14172
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
If your money is long enough, your luck will eventually turn around. Seen plenty of reg-grinders that get in for 2-4 BI all the time. They eventually wake up with a big hand and get paid off getting called light.
So their winning session % is like 100!? Damn, I'm doing it wrong.

Last edited by FiGMan; 03-21-2016 at 12:37 PM.
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Old 03-21-2016, 02:09 PM   #14173
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Re: quick question regarding winrate

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Originally Posted by FieryJustice View Post

As for live cash games, it is nearly impossible to have a losing year if you are a decently winning player and put in a lot of volume. About 5 years ago I played a lot of $5/$10 and $10/$20 at Bellagio with a 12bb/hour putting in 50 hours per week and came nowhere close to having a losing month. If you have a smaller win rate, you should expect much larger swings.
Yup, how much of a winner the winner is plays a big part. Big difference between this spot and somebody who maybe doesn't beat the rake unless they game select well.

Playing at different stakes can up the shot a lot as well, especially if the winner is capable of some tilt.
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Old 03-21-2016, 04:03 PM   #14174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Live games of ~5 years ago do not equal the live games of today, just sayin
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Old 03-21-2016, 10:51 PM   #14175
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Living. Cooking. Smoking cigars

Electrical fires are common right?
Have you been going to one of those rare electricity-free banks?
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