Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-07-2016, 04:36 PM   #13951
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah
 
Gilmour's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thats a good idea RP, variance is an interesting topic for sure. If you would do i COTM article writeup on variance, i would be happy to read it and participate in the discussion.
Gilmour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:39 PM   #13952
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Didn't know they had wheel chair hockey.
Lol.

One team I'm on plays on a rink designed for sled hockey (no lips on the benches entering the ice surface, seats far back from the semi-transparent boards, etc.). They're often playing before our game, cripes it looks like a lotta work.

GnowbacktoyourregularlyscheduledprogrammingG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:41 PM   #13953
Bluegrassplayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bluegrassplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: China
Posts: 36,549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How pedantic can you get RP?

Maybe the line is moving up and down the same amount, but the bigger winner is going to be winning during a downswing more often.
Bluegrassplayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:42 PM   #13954
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

My bad for putting some thoughts into these questions...

Lol.

And you are still missing the point. There are many LLSNL players who cannot win at high WR not because they lose more often.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:44 PM   #13955
Bluegrassplayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bluegrassplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: China
Posts: 36,549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You're not though. You're just being pedantic and arguing a nonpoint to be confrontational.
Bluegrassplayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:48 PM   #13956
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Was I wrong that they're wrong?

Lower WR does not mean having experienced worse swings. Is it really hard to understand that?

If that's understood, then you realize that the question is non-sensical.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:49 PM   #13957
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah
 
Gilmour's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
My bad for putting some thoughts into these questions...

Lol.

And you are still missing the point. There are many LLSNL players who cannot win at high WR not because they lose more often.

Youre saying that many LLSNL players cant achieve a high winrate due to lack of skill, or because they arent willing to lose more often aka is capping their winrate because of scared money playingstyle?


Just trying to get it clear what you are really saying here.
Gilmour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:51 PM   #13958
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If you're a nut peddling player, you are never really losing much, agreed?

But it is rare to hit big payoff hands, so you also rarely win a lot.

Put two together, you have a low WR and never big down swings.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:52 PM   #13959
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,857
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Again that's not true...

If the 4bb guy somehow cashes out exactly 4bb ahead every time, he would have zero downswing.

Maybe we need a COTM on variance.

But if the 10bb an hour guy cashed out exactly 10bb hr ahead every time he would have zero downswing either
feel wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:52 PM   #13960
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
But if the 10bb an hour guy cashed out exactly 10bb hr ahead every time he would have zero downswing either

Exactly!
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:54 PM   #13961
Bluegrassplayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bluegrassplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: China
Posts: 36,549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd be pretty shocked to find out that you had a point when you started this pedantic tirade... Just looking at any of your posts would show that you're just mouthing off. Maybe a point has since popped in your head but from the looks of it you didn't start with one.

If you do actually have a point in mind instead of talking in riddles and asking theoretical questions that would almost never have any actual real life application just go out and say your point.

As for being a "nonsensical" "really bad" questions: this is the "Official winrate, bankrolls and finances" thread in the "live low stakes" section. The question is fine.
Bluegrassplayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:56 PM   #13962
DonkeyCopter
old hand
 
DonkeyCopter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Downtown
Posts: 1,316
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Word of the day ITT: pedantic
DonkeyCopter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:59 PM   #13963
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,123
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You guys are getting ridiculous.

Everyone understands that if you hold the standard deviation constant then the bigger winner will have fewer downswings. That wasn't the question though. RP assumed that wasn't the intended question either because that would be a really dumb question to ask.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 04:59 PM   #13964
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks BGP. I'll keep your thoughts in mind.

FWIW, did you not see that VK fired at me first?

And did you not see that spike also said that the question cannot be answered?

I know I painted a target in my head for participating at such high volume.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:00 PM   #13965
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
You guys are getting ridiculous.

Everyone understands that if you hold the standard deviation constant then the bigger winner will have fewer downswings. That wasn't the question though. RP assumed that wasn't the intended question either because that would be a really dumb question to ask.

❤️

Thank you.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:08 PM   #13966
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can't be answered from a theoretical standpoint without more extensive definitions.


What are we calling a downswing? #of dips in the line? Depth of dips in the line?

I interpret "swings" to mean volatility of then profit line, not necessarily #of swings.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:12 PM   #13967
Bluegrassplayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Bluegrassplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: China
Posts: 36,549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Thanks BGP. I'll keep your thoughts in mind.

FWIW, did you not see that VK fired at me first?
Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
Can you tell me what is correct then and what is convoluted?
Shats fire. He's coming at you hard


t-roy: people come in here with no idea what standard deviation is. I doubt anyone even got the standard deviation joke on the graph I made

It is a fairly common and not stupid question.
Bluegrassplayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:16 PM   #13968
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Great BGP. You are right. Thanks man.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:16 PM   #13969
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol.

One team I'm on plays on a rink designed for sled hockey (no lips on the benches entering the ice surface, seats far back from the semi-transparent boards, etc.). They're often playing before our game, cripes it looks like a lotta work.

GnowbacktoyourregularlyscheduledprogrammingG
I think it would be a hell of a lot of fun to play a sled game. Get a little bit of upper body workout to balance all the skating I do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Can't be answered from a theoretical standpoint without more extensive definitions.

What are we calling a downswing? #of dips in the line? Depth of dips in the line?

I interpret "swings" to mean volatility of then profit line, not necessarily #of swings.
I know there's a more technical way to define this, but I can't think of it offhand. But I'd say it's the top to bottom spread of the noise in your graph. When you plot out a winrate it's pretty obvious that there's high frequency noise and wiggles. I'd draw a line along the tops of all that, and the bottom, and call the vertical distance my "volatility". It's not exactly variance as it's more of an amplitude.

(New todo for my winrate calcs that I'll probably forget ... run an FFT on my winnings.)
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 05:58 PM   #13970
Siculamente
banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,144
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Why not?

Money is still money.
If my SO and I both had awesome jobs then I wouldn't play poker with any regularity. I'd rather spend my time doing something else besides chasing more money to buy crap I don't really need.


But take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I'm burnt out. A few million hands of online poker + live will do that to a person. You see / experience some pretty crazy variance which, at the end of the day really isn't worth dealing with / the stress imo if a person makes good gains outside of poker.
Siculamente is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 06:02 PM   #13971
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I think I figured out the problem.

You think money means buying crap you don't need.

My view is to make money when you can, but it doesn't mean to sacrifice other things.

So having a great paying job doesn't mean I can't use more money.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 06:21 PM   #13972
Flopp3dIt
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Australia
Posts: 994
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

It just comes down to how you value things in life?

I've actually been stumped at a crossroads for a month or so now since finding myself a job.

The marginal utility of every extra dollar diminishes as you earn more, $50 isn't as important to you when you're making $1000/week or whatever working but it is very important when you're grinding it out with no stable income.

Making money is always good, but there is always some sort of opportunity cost, let it be time, missed life opportunities, health, ect etc.

There should be a time for some when grinding it out for 10bb/hour is just not worth it anymore because time becomes more valuable or health etc etc.

For example, if I had children and was working a good job, I don't think I could justify grinding it out on my butt for 10bb/hour because my job would be paying 20-30bb/hour
AND MOVING UP isn't an option because the winnings/(studying+game time) isn't equal to your hourly at work.

It's like the question;
Would you rather 1m or a 50% shot at 2m, theoretically they both are equal in EV, but 1m would change people's lives and the gambol isn't just not worth it because the extra 1m to be gained isn't sufficient enough to risk it. The relative value of the second million dollars is actually less than the first million.

Last edited by Flopp3dIt; 03-07-2016 at 06:27 PM.
Flopp3dIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 06:26 PM   #13973
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,123
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post


t-roy: people come in here with no idea what standard deviation is. I doubt anyone even got the standard deviation joke on the graph I made

It is a fairly common and not stupid question.
I still don't read the question the same as you and RP's responses make sense based on how I read it. That's all.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 06:32 PM   #13974
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,123
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
If my SO and I both had awesome jobs then I wouldn't play poker with any regularity. I'd rather spend my time doing something else besides chasing more money to buy crap I don't really need.


But take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I'm burnt out. A few million hands of online poker + live will do that to a person. You see / experience some pretty crazy variance which, at the end of the day really isn't worth dealing with / the stress imo if a person makes good gains outside of poker.
Money has much better uses than buying crap. Sounds like you have a spending problem.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2016, 06:45 PM   #13975
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Money has much better uses than buying crap. Sounds like you have a spending problem.
Like traveling and seeing the world for one.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:07 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive