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Old 03-07-2016, 02:54 PM   #13926
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
That's like 1000bb.
Only 2 good PLO hands.
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Old 03-07-2016, 02:59 PM   #13927
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Most people only track session swings, so it's possible to lose a lot of small pots and ended sessions down a lot or up a lot.



Not really, sounds convoluted.

One thing that most poker players can never learn is to appreciate losing hands.
Can you tell me what is correct then and what is convoluted?
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:05 PM   #13928
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Can you tell me what is correct then and what is convoluted?
The whole thing:

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Over a long sample size a higher winrate is going to have less swings overall but maybe more in the short term while a low winrate will have less swings daily but it will take longer to dig out of a losing streak because your winrate is so small.
For starter, it is a run-on sentence.

Quote:
Over a long sample size a higher winrate is going to have less swings overall
Higher winrate does not mean fewer swings.

Player A has several 1000bb+ wins and 500bb+ losses.

Player B has mostly 100 - 200bb wins and 100 - 200bb losses.

Player A could crush player B in WR.

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low winrate will have less swings daily but it will take longer to dig out of a losing streak because your winrate is so small.
Which is it? High WR or low WR has less swings?
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:11 PM   #13929
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

VL- what Dick Parker is saying is that winrate is the slope of your graph. "Swings are the squiggly part. It doesn't matter how you get to the end. The start and end points are the only things that determine winrate.

I think what you're getting at is that a big winner is less likely to have prolonged downswings which is true but the swings. A crushing player is generally trending up much faster so they're downswings don't look so scary in context of the overall slope.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:20 PM   #13930
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In long term who has worse swings, 10bb winrates or 4bb? Long term being 1k hours or more
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:21 PM   #13931
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Yep, it's gonna be pretty damn hard to have crushing WR if you spend so much time recovering from big losses.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:22 PM   #13932
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In long term who has worse swings, 10bb winrates or 4bb? Long term being 1k hours or more
It's a really bad question.

In a less than optimal game condition in which winning big is much harder than losing big, then I am pretty sure 10bb/hr winner has fewer bad swings.

In an optimal condition, it could easily be either one.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:23 PM   #13933
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Same I am doing right now.. Over one year doing it.. currently my hourly winning at poker are bigger than my net hourly pay at work. I would consider turning into full time pp if and only if my hourly winning reaches the gross hourly pay over an huge sample.. does it make sense to you? Same strategy?

It makes sense yes. I mean, playing fulltime is another ballpark, and i believe thats a big decisison to make for any person- crusher or not. There is always the option of just try playing fulltime for a period of time, and see how you like it. Nothing is written in stone right, so there is always the option of going back to get a job again if fulltime poker isnt what you imagined.


I mean for me, just the sheer stressfree type of life you can have when working 50 percent to cover your important expences every month is worth so much. Not just the risk free money incoming, but also having collegues, and some sort of ancor in your day to day life.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:24 PM   #13934
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Nah it's an easy question you just don't know what you're talking about
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:25 PM   #13935
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Nah it's an easy question you just don't know what you're talking about
Yep, you're right...
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:30 PM   #13936
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I think you should spend some time learning about this stuff before you act as if you have all the answers when you clearly don't.

Spend some time on here and look at the variance between winrates

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

In regards to your answer and statistics of course a smaller win rate could have less swings, but we can say with a high level of confidence that higher winrate(slope) has less swings over the long term than a lower winrate.

Can we see your graphs and results, maybe see what happened with yours?
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:34 PM   #13937
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That's impossible to say. It could be 400 up and 100 down or 4000 up 3700 down.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:34 PM   #13938
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So you already have the answers and you're here to test me or something?

Of course I don't have all the answers, but I do have a clear rational thought process and I can easily identify where my thought process may be incorrect.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:37 PM   #13939
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It's like when you ask someone to explain a mathematical idea and you see that they can't. Yes I know the answer, I wanted to see if you did and then I happens to use google to make sure I was correct. There is a great variance simulator on that site and it will show you exactly how extreme the swings are between High and low winrateS. Check it out. Learn. Admit you're wrong and grow

Last edited by VolumeKing; 03-07-2016 at 03:41 PM. Reason: In b4 I'm wrong
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:41 PM   #13940
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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
It's like when you ask someone to explain a mathematical idea and you see that they can't.
I know what I can and answer only those that I can.

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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
Yes I know the answer, I wanted to see if you did and then I happens to use google to make sure I was correct.
You have access to the answer, but that's not the same as knowing the answer.

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There is a great variance simulator on that site and it will show you exactly how extreme the swings are between High and low winrateS. Check it out. Learn. Admit you're wrong and grow
See, you're already demonstrating that you don't understand it.

Think about it this way:

If a guy never wins or loses any money after 1000 sessions, his variance is effectively 0, and so is his WR.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:42 PM   #13941
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This has turned bizarre quickly. Can we talk about sled hockey?
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:46 PM   #13942
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FWIW, my credential is my GMAT score .

Me no advance math, but me know good enough math.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:56 PM   #13943
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beautiful thing about math is that credentials don't matter, only matters that the equation balances


I would also pose this question. For which winrate (10bb or 4bb)would you need a larger bankroll, and why?
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:01 PM   #13944
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LOL, I know where this is going.

I think we already had the "good players don't need big roll" argument some pages back. Feel free to search.

Once again, your thought process is convoluted.

You're confused by the idea of RoR (risk of ruin) and idea of maxing WR coupling with variance.

Naturally a 10bb/hr winner comparing vs a 4bb/hr winner will need smaller roll to avoid busto, but that's not the context we have been discussing.

I think bip! was right in this instance. You are confusing "downswing" with variance.
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:07 PM   #13945
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In long term who has worse swings, 10bb winrates or 4bb? Long term being 1k hours or more

4bb of course. Is this a level?
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:14 PM   #13946
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4bb of course. Is this a level?
FWIW, this isn't true.

4bb/hr winner could have no swings...
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:15 PM   #13947
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In long term who has worse swings, 10bb winrates or 4bb? Long term being 1k hours or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
It's a really bad question.

In a less than optimal game condition in which winning big is much harder than losing big, then I am pretty sure 10bb/hr winner has fewer bad swings.

In an optimal condition, it could easily be either one.
I wanted to see what people thought
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:21 PM   #13948
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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In long term who has worse swings, 10bb winrates or 4bb? Long term being 1k hours or more
Trick question, nobody itt only wins 4bb / hr
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:24 PM   #13949
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FWIW, this isn't true.



4bb/hr winner could have no swings...

All we have to deal with is the question though (nothing about playing styles) and all other things remaining equal a guy that wins at 10bb an hour will have fewer downswings than somebody winning at 4 bb hr because the card and other variance train has to hit them on average 6bb hr harder for them to lose money
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:34 PM   #13950
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All we have to deal with is the question though (nothing about playing styles) and all other things remaining equal a guy that wins at 10bb an hour will have fewer downswings than somebody winning at 4 bb hr because the card and other variance train has to hit them on average 6bb hr harder for them to lose money

Again that's not true...

If the 4bb guy somehow cashes out exactly 4bb ahead every time, he would have zero downswing.

Maybe we need a COTM on variance.
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