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Old 02-25-2016, 07:32 PM   #13701
RobFarha
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You vastly over value the impact of "style" on winrate over real LLSNL sample sizes.

Edit: Aren't you also the guy that dropped into the thread with zero posts and claimed that 100 hours was more than sufficient to estimate a winrate?
**** im in trouble
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:38 PM   #13702
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I'm making $60/hr at 2/5 over 4x that sample. Crushing. It.



Quits pharmacy job.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:40 PM   #13703
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm making $60/hr at 2/5 over 4x that sample. Crushing. It.



Quits pharmacy job.
Wait ... isn't that a pay cut for a pharmacy job?
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:47 PM   #13704
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Wait ... isn't that a pay cut for a pharmacy job?
It's worth it for the freedom and being my own boss. And I love the game so much etc.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:53 PM   #13705
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
It's worth it for the freedom and being my own boss. And I love the game so much etc.
Fair enough. That's why I don't have an industry job yet. I like being able to wear flip-flops and hoodies to work.
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Old 02-25-2016, 08:54 PM   #13706
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Looking from 1200 to 2000, I'd say that both the rise at the start and the flatter top are both just variance, I held up a bit more often (and probably got there from behind) in the first stretch, then didn't in the second. So my real "standard winrate" should be somewhere in the middle, not biased to the start.

The thing that jumps out beyond just the difference in larger sample windows is the number of times I swing +-$1-2k in a "short" period. This is where the "do you really need a 20BI BR to play $1/2" questions land. I guess if I was better I might not have as many of them, but anyone needing to ask the question is probably either in my situation or worse.
Need more info of dynamics of your games. I've never had a downswing over 1k since I took a 1.3k down in February 2015. I buyin for $300 but the avg stack is only $200 though & U can only straddle utg. I think I play about 80% of my hands OTB CO HJ or steal seat.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:00 PM   #13707
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I've dropped 5BIs in a hand.

Last edited by t_roy; 02-25-2016 at 09:01 PM. Reason: might be a fish though
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:03 PM   #13708
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
It's worth it for the freedom and being my own boss. And I love the game so much etc.
Plus there is a multitude of success stories of people making a living for decades playing poker. If I had it to do over again I wouldn't bother putting in 20 years in the Air Force. Sure, the retirement check is nice & paying only $24 a month for health insurance is sweet, however I'm sure I'd be playing high stakes with Ivey now if I had gone into poker fulltime right out of high school. Oh well.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:09 PM   #13709
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Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Seven. Hundred. Hours. Is. Nothing.
While I understand why you say that, I disagree. I could break even for the next 1300 hours for 2000 total, and my hourly would still be a 'crushing' $21.50/hour.

I don't deny that I could just be running hot, but it seems even less likely based on my results that I'm a marginal or b/e player.

There was an analysis posted earlier in this thread (I think by bip!) on how many hours it takes to have a 95% confidence in a certain normal distribution spread of actual win rate. If I remember correctly, after 700 hours you should have a pretty good idea of actual winrate.

Whoever remembers the specifics of that analysis or has that post can correct me if I'm wrong.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:17 PM   #13710
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are there any doctors itt?

Spoiler:
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:21 PM   #13711
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Plus there is a multitude of success stories of people making a living for decades playing poker. If I had it to do over again I wouldn't bother putting in 20 years in the Air Force. Sure, the retirement check is nice & paying only $24 a month for health insurance is sweet, however I'm sure I'd be playing high stakes with Ivey now if I had gone into poker fulltime right out of high school. Oh well.
I get your point, but this doesn't make sense since poker didn't exist in any capacity when you were 18 the way it does for an 18 year old today. Having a career in the U.S. Air Force is probably one of the most safe and + EV things someone could do with their life. But.....that doesn't mean there aren't other +EV choices.

Also, most people fail at picking stocks. So does this mean nobody should try? Same thing with starting a business....

People who think young guys like Johnny Buzz are trying to be full time grinders for the rest of their life are kind of missing the point. Poker allows you to play at higher stakes and make more money, while most jobs put a ceiling on how much you can make. The free time allotted by not having a 9-5 allows more time to pursue different ventures. You can use your capital to make more money at a faster rate of return.

When you factor in the commutes and time spent getting up for work, time spent checking emails voicemails and all of the other corporate drone factors, people are spending more like 60 hours a week for their job rather than "40". Not to mention the necessary unproductive hours spent unwinding from the misery, people are pretty much spending all of their waking time devoted to their jobs and the rest devoted to distractions like getting drunk, watching tv, and getting off. This isn't a bad thing per se but it leads people to think negatively about their life and they stop having any confidence or feeling of motivation to accomplish more. People need time to focus their thoughts to plan and strategize. Constantly having to run around doing petty tasks (i.e. a "job") completely taxes the brain and limits you from changing your life direction in swift and prompt ways. You basically get "stuck" and 'dependent" on your job.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:29 PM   #13712
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

"I make $20/hr at Burger King."

"No you don't."

"Yes I do!"

"No you don't!"
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:30 PM   #13713
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Need more info of dynamics of your games. I've never had a downswing over 1k since I took a 1.3k down in February 2015. I buyin for $300 but the avg stack is only $200 though & U can only straddle utg. I think I play about 80% of my hands OTB CO HJ or steal seat.
So how many hours is that? What's your definition of "downswing"? It's pretty easy to lose 2-3 flips in a row or otherwise punt $1-2k from ahead over the course of a couple of sessions.

I was playing a lot in a local casino in Detroit, along with a bunch of trips to Vegas/AC for various other things where I put in nice chunks of hours. Now it's more weighted toward the local charity poker rooms. So it's a variety.

Most of the games I sit in have $300 max buys, with most stacks in the $150-250 range, although there's often 1 or 2 bigger stacks on each table.

Typical LLSNL stuff, lots of limpers and multi-way raised pots, players are bad in extreme ways. Calling stations mostly, with the occasional aggrotard and smattering of OMCs. The games in and around Detroit are pretty good, but from my experience playing other places they're not that far out of the ordinary for most markets.

Quote:
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are there any doctors itt?

Spoiler:
Yes I am a Doctor.

You can't catch AIDS from a forum, but stupid does appear to be contagious.

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Old 02-25-2016, 09:34 PM   #13714
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
While I understand why you say that, I disagree. I could break even for the next 1300 hours for 2000 total, and my hourly would still be a 'crushing' $21.50/hour.

I don't deny that I could just be running hot, but it seems even less likely based on my results that I'm a marginal or b/e player.

There was an analysis posted earlier in this thread (I think by bip!) on how many hours it takes to have a 95% confidence in a certain normal distribution spread of actual win rate. If I remember correctly, after 700 hours you should have a pretty good idea of actual winrate.

Whoever remembers the specifics of that analysis or has that post can correct me if I'm wrong.
That means you've make 40k over 700 hours or about $58. Now I'm not saying that's impossible because I'm doing it in the weekly home game but it's only over 40 hrs.
Still, as entertaining as this thread has become, it's probably time to lock it down before someone has a brain aneurysm trying to come up with something more outrageous than what's already been said.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:37 PM   #13715
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Thread surpassing lol/hr rate of chat thread, imo.

Gnicejobeveryone!G

Last edited by zoltan; 02-25-2016 at 09:38 PM. Reason: god help me for posting itt
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:39 PM   #13716
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm making $60/hr at 2/5 over 4x that sample. Crushing. It.



Quits pharmacy job.
itt, stealing bottles of oxycontin and reselling them on the street is a "pharmacy job"
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:41 PM   #13717
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I've dropped 5BIs in a hand.

so you coach? pm me your rates plz
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:45 PM   #13718
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Ok so question team I've only gone on 5+bi downswings a a handful of times. So my question is in hindsight how much of it was run bad and how much was playbad. The reason I ask is most of my downswings have been from play bad. I haven't hit a cooler train ever.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:46 PM   #13719
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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
I get your point, but this doesn't make sense since poker didn't exist in any capacity when you were 18 the way it does for an 18 year old today. Having a career in the U.S. Air Force is probably one of the most safe and + EV things someone could do with their life. But.....that doesn't mean there aren't other +EV choices.

Also, most people fail at picking stocks. So does this mean nobody should try? Same thing with starting a business....

People who think young guys like Johnny Buzz are trying to be full time grinders for the rest of their life are kind of missing the point. Poker allows you to play at higher stakes and make more money, while most jobs put a ceiling on how much you can make. The free time allotted by not having a 9-5 allows more time to pursue different ventures. You can use your capital to make more money at a faster rate of return.

When you factor in the commutes and time spent getting up for work, time spent checking emails voicemails and all of the other corporate drone factors, people are spending more like 60 hours a week for their job rather than "40". Not to mention the necessary unproductive hours spent unwinding from the misery, people are pretty much spending all of their waking time devoted to their jobs and the rest devoted to distractions like getting drunk, watching tv, and getting off. This isn't a bad thing per se but it leads people to think negatively about their life and they stop having any confidence or feeling of motivation to accomplish more. People need time to focus their thoughts to plan and strategize. Constantly having to run around doing petty tasks (i.e. a "job") completely taxes the brain and limits you from changing your life direction in swift and prompt ways. You basically get "stuck" and 'dependent" on your job.
I had been sufficiently infected with HIV, but the additional ebola and zika never hurt i suppose.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:55 PM   #13720
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Fair enough. That's why I don't have an industry job yet. I like being able to wear flip-flops and hoodies to work.
Become a computer engineer. I wear a hoodie to work almost everyday, and I'm pretty sure flip flops are ok too, although I prefer sneakers.


Glad to read in the last few pages I'm not the only one who cracks up at the people saying it is impossible to be a good player and go on big downswings. I've lost 4 full stacks in a round before, getting it in as 2-1 favorite or better each time.
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Old 02-25-2016, 09:58 PM   #13721
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Plus there is a multitude of success stories of people making a living for decades playing poker. If I had it to do over again I wouldn't bother putting in 20 years in the Air Force. Sure, the retirement check is nice & paying only $24 a month for health insurance is sweet, however I'm sure I'd be playing high stakes with Ivey now if I had gone into poker fulltime right out of high school. Oh well.
Haha sarcasmants.
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Old 02-25-2016, 10:00 PM   #13722
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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
so you coach? pm me your rates plz
I don't have a solid rate. I want to make sure that I only get paid if my client get's what they're looking for. Once you lose 5 BIs thanks to me, just send me another 5 BIs and we'll call it even.
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Old 02-25-2016, 10:05 PM   #13723
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
While I understand why you say that, I disagree. I could break even for the next 1300 hours for 2000 total, and my hourly would still be a 'crushing' $21.50/hour.

I don't deny that I could just be running hot, but it seems even less likely based on my results that I'm a marginal or b/e player.

There was an analysis posted earlier in this thread (I think by bip!) on how many hours it takes to have a 95% confidence in a certain normal distribution spread of actual win rate. If I remember correctly, after 700 hours you should have a pretty good idea of actual winrate.

Whoever remembers the specifics of that analysis or has that post can correct me if I'm wrong.
No one said that you are a losing player. They said your win rate is unsustainable, which it is.
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Old 02-25-2016, 10:07 PM   #13724
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Haha sarcasmants.
yes, his post confused me.

Yours was clearly ironic and bodybuilder's one in response to Zuneit's was clearly lol-serious but I still can't be sure whether Zuneit was doubling down on the irony or taking your words at face value
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Old 02-25-2016, 10:10 PM   #13725
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ITT we try to teach blind men what colors are like.

Last edited by t_roy; 02-25-2016 at 10:11 PM. Reason: Maybe we are the dumb ones...
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