I am that bored...

LOL favorite part.

I am a certified "stock chartist" quack, and, based upon that cup & handle I see forming, I foresee a steep upswing, void any steep decrease in volume.

Head and shoulders... Look out below.

Looking from 1200 to 2000, I'd say that both the rise at the start and the flatter top are both just variance, I held up a bit more often (and probably got there from behind) in the first stretch, then didn't in the second. So my real "standard winrate" should be somewhere in the middle, not biased to the start.

The thing that jumps out beyond just the difference in larger sample windows is the number of times I swing +-$1-2k in a "short" period. This is where the "do you really need a 20BI BR to play $1/2" questions land. I guess if I was better I might not have as many of them, but anyone needing to ask the question is probably either in my situation or worse.

Thread surpassing lol/hr rate of chat thread, imo.

Gnicejobeveryone!G

Until someone shows me a 2000+ hour giraffe playing 200 BB cap graveyard shift hours where you can break your table when it gets short and then table select any table full of multiple 300-400+ BB stacks then I am going to quietly disagree with the lot of 'ya and remove myself from this conversation.

You've still avoided the question about how many hours into your professional poker career you are.

Please let us know before you remove yourself from the conversation (but still lurk the thread).

You seem to be stalking me plenty fine so you can check the last 50 pages and find my total +80 hours for each successive month.

Yeah I'm not gonna do that. Just funny how you would take the time to post all of that but can't just type the digits.

If johnny wants to believe there is a pot of gold at end of rainbow and Santa is real, why are we bursting his bubble?

Let's argue something else!

I understand my sample is small, but do you guys think this winrate is sustainable?

I'm a lifetime .50c/hr winner, and I play better than most of the other players. I don't know if it's widely accepted that .50c is at or near the cap.

I feel like I've developed a lot as a player and that's why I have acheived a winrate of .66c per hour recently.

Also is this enough to go pro or should I stay at my job running a multi-million dollar hedge fund?

66 cents an hour is pretty standard for .01/.02 where I play.

The point is that you can't possibly have enough information to know what is attainable. Everyone saying that you are wrong has said the same exact things as you at one point.

Until you go through a real downswing, you just have a biased view of attainable hourlies. It's really not something you can figure out without the data either. Your intuition cannot get you to the right answer unless you have thousands of hours of experience and data to base that intuition on. If you take a step back, you will realize that it is way way more likely that the people with over 2k hours are right. Not a single person with over 2k hours agrees with you. That should tell you something...

I only say all that because I wouldn't want you to make a big life decision based on bad information. That's not to say that you can't make killer money in poker. You just can't do it at low stakes, and you should plan accordingly imo.

Again, thats mostly a product of playing style.

No it's really not.

You vastly over value the impact of "style" on winrate over real LLSNL sample sizes.

Edit: Aren't you also the guy that dropped into the thread with zero posts and claimed that 100 hours was more than sufficient to estimate a winrate?

Apparently it's 300-500 hands now.

So we're down to 10-16 hrs at 30 hands/hr? Awesome!

**** im in trouble

I'm making $60/hr at 2/5 over 4x that sample. Crushing. It.



Quits pharmacy job.

Wait ... isn't that a pay cut for a pharmacy job?

It's worth it for the freedom and being my own boss. And I love the game so much etc.

Fair enough. That's why I don't have an industry job yet. I like being able to wear flip-flops and hoodies to work.

Need more info of dynamics of your games. I've never had a downswing over 1k since I took a 1.3k down in February 2015. I buyin for $300 but the avg stack is only $200 though & U can only straddle utg. I think I play about 80% of my hands OTB CO HJ or steal seat.