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Old 02-25-2016, 04:27 PM   #13676
johnny_on_the_spot
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'd love to see it too.

I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:


Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:


A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.

Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.
It's kinda funny/depressing when you realize all of your winnings have really come from 1/4 of your playing time. In this case it's hours 0-250, 1250-1500, and 3000-3500. Everything else is basically just staying even

Still nice to see a 4K sample. Thanks for posting it
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Old 02-25-2016, 04:45 PM   #13677
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
For other people 300-500 hands will get them pretty close to their true win rate.


Level right?
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Old 02-25-2016, 04:49 PM   #13678
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Old 02-25-2016, 04:54 PM   #13679
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
It's kinda funny/depressing when you realize all of your winnings have really come from 1/4 of your playing time. In this case it's hours 0-250, 1250-1500, and 3000-3500. Everything else is basically just staying even

Still nice to see a 4K sample. Thanks for posting it
Seems the point of poker is to stay afloat until the next heater.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:04 PM   #13680
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Seems the point of poker is to stay afloat until the next heater.
This is beyond true.

Don't go busto until your next paycheck.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:06 PM   #13681
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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.

Hr 0-300 man I could probably do this for a living.
Hr 300-1200 I should quit poker.
Hr 1200-1400 I should quit my job!
Hr 1.4k-2k games getting toughr I think I'm running bad.
Hr 2k-2.3k I should quit poker.
He 2.3k-3k is it really worth it?
Hr 3k-3.5k I got this now. I really should quit my job.
Hr 3.5k-4k hey but the comps tho?

Hr 7k - "whatever"
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:10 PM   #13682
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Hr 0-300 5 man I could probably do this for a living.
Hr 300-1200 I should quit poker. stupid variance...
Hr 1200-1400 I should quit my job, and get a new hot wife with my millions
Hr 1.4k-2k games getting toughr I think I'm running bad. stupid variance...
Hr 2k-2.3k I should quit poker. divorcing hot wife, she's bad luck.
He 2.3k-3k is it really worth it? if only my AA held up the last 6 times...
Hr 3k-3.5k I got this now. I really should quit my job.hooker and blow time
Hr 3.5k-4k hey but the comps tho?
I am that bored...
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:14 PM   #13683
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Hr 3.5k-4k hey but the comps tho?
LOL favorite part.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:20 PM   #13684
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
I am a certified "stock chartist" quack, and, based upon that cup & handle I see forming, I foresee a steep upswing, void any steep decrease in volume.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:32 PM   #13685
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I am a certified "stock chartist" quack, and, based upon that cup & handle I see forming, I foresee a steep upswing, void any steep decrease in volume.

Head and shoulders... Look out below.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:38 PM   #13686
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Looking from 1200 to 2000, I'd say that both the rise at the start and the flatter top are both just variance, I held up a bit more often (and probably got there from behind) in the first stretch, then didn't in the second. So my real "standard winrate" should be somewhere in the middle, not biased to the start.

The thing that jumps out beyond just the difference in larger sample windows is the number of times I swing +-$1-2k in a "short" period. This is where the "do you really need a 20BI BR to play $1/2" questions land. I guess if I was better I might not have as many of them, but anyone needing to ask the question is probably either in my situation or worse.
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:46 PM   #13687
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thread surpassing lol/hr rate of chat thread, imo.

Gnicejobeveryone!G
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Old 02-25-2016, 05:52 PM   #13688
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Until someone shows me a 2000+ hour giraffe playing 200 BB cap graveyard shift hours where you can break your table when it gets short and then table select any table full of multiple 300-400+ BB stacks then I am going to quietly disagree with the lot of 'ya and remove myself from this conversation.
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Old 02-25-2016, 06:00 PM   #13689
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Until someone shows me a 2000+ hour giraffe playing 200 BB cap graveyard shift hours where you can break your table when it gets short and then table select any table full of multiple 300-400+ BB stacks then I am going to quietly disagree with the lot of 'ya and remove myself from this conversation.
You've still avoided the question about how many hours into your professional poker career you are.

Please let us know before you remove yourself from the conversation (but still lurk the thread).
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Old 02-25-2016, 06:08 PM   #13690
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You've still avoided the question about how many hours into your professional poker career you are.

Please let us know before you remove yourself from the conversation (but still lurk the thread).
You seem to be stalking me plenty fine so you can check the last 50 pages and find my total +80 hours for each successive month.
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Old 02-25-2016, 06:12 PM   #13691
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Yeah I'm not gonna do that. Just funny how you would take the time to post all of that but can't just type the digits.
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Old 02-25-2016, 06:22 PM   #13692
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If johnny wants to believe there is a pot of gold at end of rainbow and Santa is real, why are we bursting his bubble?

Let's argue something else!
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:15 PM   #13693
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I understand my sample is small, but do you guys think this winrate is sustainable?

I'm a lifetime .50c/hr winner, and I play better than most of the other players. I don't know if it's widely accepted that .50c is at or near the cap.

I feel like I've developed a lot as a player and that's why I have acheived a winrate of .66c per hour recently.

Also is this enough to go pro or should I stay at my job running a multi-million dollar hedge fund?

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Old 02-25-2016, 07:18 PM   #13694
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66 cents an hour is pretty standard for .01/.02 where I play.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:20 PM   #13695
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Until someone shows me a 2000+ hour giraffe playing 200 BB cap graveyard shift hours where you can break your table when it gets short and then table select any table full of multiple 300-400+ BB stacks then I am going to quietly disagree with the lot of 'ya and remove myself from this conversation.
The point is that you can't possibly have enough information to know what is attainable. Everyone saying that you are wrong has said the same exact things as you at one point.

Until you go through a real downswing, you just have a biased view of attainable hourlies. It's really not something you can figure out without the data either. Your intuition cannot get you to the right answer unless you have thousands of hours of experience and data to base that intuition on. If you take a step back, you will realize that it is way way more likely that the people with over 2k hours are right. Not a single person with over 2k hours agrees with you. That should tell you something...

I only say all that because I wouldn't want you to make a big life decision based on bad information. That's not to say that you can't make killer money in poker. You just can't do it at low stakes, and you should plan accordingly imo.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:22 PM   #13696
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
It is obvious from this thread that the less experience you have, the less you think variance affects you. I've been up and down 5BI in a single 4 hr session. Anything is possible.
Again, thats mostly a product of playing style.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:25 PM   #13697
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Again, thats mostly a product of playing style.
No it's really not.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:27 PM   #13698
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Again, thats mostly a product of playing style.
You vastly over value the impact of "style" on winrate over real LLSNL sample sizes.

Edit: Aren't you also the guy that dropped into the thread with zero posts and claimed that 100 hours was more than sufficient to estimate a winrate?
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:29 PM   #13699
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You vastly over value the impact of "style" on winrate over real LLSNL sample sizes.

Edit: Aren't you also the guy that dropped into the thread with zero posts and claimed that 100 hours was more than sufficient to estimate a winrate?

Apparently it's 300-500 hands now.
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Old 02-25-2016, 07:32 PM   #13700
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Apparently it's 300-500 hands now.
So we're down to 10-16 hrs at 30 hands/hr? Awesome!
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