Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-25-2016, 02:26 PM   #13651
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pretty true, didn't experience a real downswing until 1500 hours in. (Granted a good portion of it came from PLO, but it was a lot of 70/30 spots that could be comparable to variance regardless).

That being said, bounced right back the month after to retain said winrate
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:28 PM   #13652
IntheNow
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 370
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
I just wanna know how out of depth JB is with some of the stuff he posts in here. Nobody who's played >2k hours of live poker would say some of this stuff.
It's fine if he's clueless obv, but his inability to accept what many good, actual experienced pros tell him about variance in live poker is the tilting part.

Seriously, just think how bad he's gonna start playing once he goes on an inevitable long downswing/breakeven stretch! Anyone with the above kinda ego is in big trouble once they hit a truly sustained bad run.

One day he's gonna look back and feel a little silly wrt to his win rate/variance ideas(not a big deal). But sadly, there's a very high chance he looks back and realizes going pro instead of staying at his 6 figure(i think he has said 6 fig?) job was a huge mistake with significant consequences(a very big deal).

JB, as a pro in his 9th year, I would offer you more advice/explanation, but pretty obvious it will fall on deaf ears. Best of luck to you!
IntheNow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:31 PM   #13653
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,121
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Havax View Post
This is the same sort of mentality of the people who have a $2k+ session and go out and drastically change their spending habits as if this sort of thing is normal (because they are "crushers of the game").
I'm guilty of this. After a big win I'm known to splurge by buying an ice cream with dinner (without comps!). I might also get a mountain dew on the ride home.

Shame on me
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:34 PM   #13654
Randal_Graves
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Randal_Graves's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: @tj_jurk
Posts: 10,128
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

To be fair, I remember being super naive back in my 1/2 days thinking I found a money tree and when people would talk about downswings I would just think they didn't know how to play poker.

Then I played more. And more. And more.

Then you see the light (darkness?).

JB please try and maintain some humility because I promise you there are rough times ahead.
Randal_Graves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:37 PM   #13655
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonrubs View Post
Subbing

If I had to guess the people adamantly saying others dont know variance probably play a very very high variance style. Losing 4 buyins in a session at 1/2 seems freaking absurd especially because 1/2 players play very face up. If I had to guess, you are probably not b/fing enough and chalking too many hands up as "coolers" when in fact you just cant make the hard folds.
If it's absurd, why has it happened to so many people?

Flip a coin 100 times and write down heads or tails. It's pretty damn easy to get 4-6 tails in a row. If those were close hands with relatively thin edges (+-5-10%) you can easily get a +-4 BI swing.

You can do the same thing with a 6 sided die and see how often you go on a streak of losing 85% or 70% to win hands. It happens even when you get your money in hugely good.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:39 PM   #13656
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I only get to play 8-10 hours a week so I'm guessing there is a non-zero % chance I die before I see any significant downswong.

Here's to running good in the death department!!!

/mainlines an 8-ball
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:40 PM   #13657
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, if you believe that max win rate is when you can see people's hands, then you probably believe that you can dodge bullets or simply don't bet on head when you know tail is coming.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:43 PM   #13658
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,371
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I am over 7000 hours...not sure if it's a brag.
Would be interesting for you to post your giraffe after this many hours (maybe even under an alt?) simply to illustrate the no-doubt ugly ups/downs/flats you've had over this time. Doubt many that post in this thread (maybe squid? one or two others?) have more live hours...

Gwouldprobablybeeyeopeningtomanyinthisthread,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:46 PM   #13659
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Pass.

I can tell you how many war stars I have though.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 02:59 PM   #13660
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

7k hours is by itself very impressive
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:02 PM   #13661
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I can tell you that it was extremely miserable when I only had about 20 BIs.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:09 PM   #13662
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Would be interesting for you to post your giraffe after this many hours (maybe even under an alt?) simply to illustrate the no-doubt ugly ups/downs/flats you've had over this time. Doubt many that post in this thread (maybe squid? one or two others?) have more live hours...

Gwouldprobablybeeyeopeningtomanyinthisthread,imoG
I'd love to see it too.

I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:


Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:


A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.

Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:11 PM   #13663
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It is obvious from this thread that the less experience you have, the less you think variance affects you. I've been up and down 5BI in a single 4 hr session. Anything is possible.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:13 PM   #13664
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'd love to see it too.



I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:





Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:





A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.



Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.

This might be one of the most valuable samples ever posted ITT. Tytyty for sharing.

The value is - there are so many 400~600 hour sections you could pick out to tell whatever narrative you want.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:17 PM   #13665
Randal_Graves
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Randal_Graves's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: @tj_jurk
Posts: 10,128
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'd love to see it too.

I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:


Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:


A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.

Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.
Ty for posting. Everyone take a good hard look at hours 2k-3k on the top graph.
Randal_Graves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:17 PM   #13666
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Angrist can you zoom in on a couple of 500 hr stretches specifically and put them side by side? I bet you have a >$100/hr difference in some places.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:19 PM   #13667
miamicheats
i finance dead fish
 
miamicheats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: getting reverse bumhunted
Posts: 16,542
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
decent goal but it is really a level one kind of goal which shows your overall inexperience. As a grizzled vet my goal is to not only run hot but to cooler people as well. Keep at it kid - I see your game is improving.

Try stepping it up to level 3

I not only try to run hot and cooler people, but I make sure to try and let whales cooler bits and pros to increase their stacks so when I cooler then I gets more maniez
miamicheats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:26 PM   #13668
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
This might be one of the most valuable samples ever posted ITT. Tytyty for sharing.

The value is - there are so many 400~600 hour sections you could pick out to tell whatever narrative you want.
No problem. Seems like we keep talking about these things without any data.


When I started I was very raw. Played rather tight, not exactly scared, but definitely nitty. Folded a lot of spots where I was probably good in retrospect.

I'm much better now, but not significantly better than some in my player pool (worse than a couple). Have leaks that I know I need to plug that hurt my overall winrate too. But I'd think it's safe to say I'm at least a proven winner.


I've got a Matlab script to break things down by location, day of week, game, etc. Also plots trailing 100 and 500 hour winrates. Amazing how much noise there is in that number. +- $30/hr *easily* in the 100 hour samples. Can't find the old figures and don't have time to make more yet.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:26 PM   #13669
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,371
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'd love to see it too.

I've got 4,084 hours since July of 2008 when I started playing live:


Zoomed to about the last 1000 hours:


A lot of those spikes are series where I'll go win-3, lose-1, win-3 sessions, and the reverse on the down side. So you can't just look for continuous winning or losing stretches to define an up or downswing.

Next time I do a real analysis I'm going to try a peak finding algorithm we've been using at work to see if I can pick off the swings automatically. Might be interesting.
Thanks for posting.

Love the sick ~200hr plummet at the 2,000 hour mark (where I'm sure most of us think we have it all figured out).

Someone else posted a giraffe a couple of months ago, with a pretty decent winrate at ~2000 hours, and then the wheels completely fell off (my memory is shot, can't remember who that was?).

ETA: Found it: AllJackedUp (see post#11544 for more lol's at the 2,000 hour cliff).

GcluelessgiraffenoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:33 PM   #13670
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Ty for posting. Everyone take a good hard look at hours 2k-3k on the top graph.
The swing right after 2000 hours was ****ing BRUTAL. There was some tilt in there for sure. But shoveling $600 into a pot with a boat and getting rivered, then losing AA to QJ AIPF on the next hand (hooray for the shove that looks tilty with AA ) for another $200 can get to anyone.


Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Angrist can you zoom in on a couple of 500 hr stretches specifically and put them side by side? I bet you have a >$100/hr difference in some places.
Let me see what I can do. I'd looked at this last year, and there wasn't anything near +-$100/hr variation in samples longer than 100 hours. Think it was about +$50/hr to -$25/hr.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:41 PM   #13671
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,123
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

TLDR for last 5 pages: People over 2k hours say that 20bb+ winrates aren't sustainable and that variance is a *****. People with under 1k hours irrefutably prove them wrong with a couple giraffes.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:53 PM   #13672
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Couple of 500 hour stretches plotted against each other:



There's a little bit of PLO in there, but not enough to throw things off significantly (I hope).

Last edited by Angrist; 02-25-2016 at 03:59 PM. Reason: Can't spell.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 03:56 PM   #13673
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
The swing right after 2000 hours was ****ing BRUTAL. There was some tilt in there for sure. But shoveling $600 into a pot with a boat and getting rivered, then losing AA to QJ AIPF on the next hand (hooray for the shove that looks tilty with AA ) for another $200 can get to anyone.




Let me see what I can do. I'd looked at this last year, and there wasn't anything near +-$100/hr variation in samples longer than 100 hours. Think it was about +$50/hr to -$25/hr.
Maybe I overestimated then. Still pretty wild variation over seemingly long samples (but not).
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 04:03 PM   #13674
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Maybe I overestimated then. Still pretty wild variation over seemingly long samples (but not).
Yea.

I think I play quite a bit for a rec player, but 500 hours takes me about a year. So each one of those samples can *feel* like forever.
Angrist is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2016, 04:20 PM   #13675
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,371
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yea.

I think I play quite a bit for a rec player, but 500 hours takes me about a year. So each one of those samples can *feel* like forever.
I'm a rec 550 hour/year player myself. Last year I pretty much felt I flatlined all year; 2.6 bb/hr, albeit winning, so I guess I'm not complaining, but seems like a lifetime ago from two years prior when I ran at 11.8 bb/hr.

Gprobablyabreakevenplayerrunningextremelyhotover27 00hours,lol,can'twaitfortherealadjustmentG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive