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Old 02-21-2016, 05:20 PM   #13526
kekeeke
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I must be terrible then.

If I compare the games where I am right now (niagara falls) and the vegas games, let's just say I am never going back to vegas. My local games are also much better & much more fun.

If you can get a seat here, the field is fakking insanely beautifull, too bad getti a seat takes 10 hours.
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Old 02-21-2016, 06:22 PM   #13527
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There are certain times of the year when vegas games are epic

1 new years
2 super bowl
3 march madness
4 wsop (completely off the hook during colossus/milly maker - and july 4 weekend. July 4 is a trifecta start of main, major holiday, v deepstack)
5 other major holidays and sporting events

That being said Now that I have changed locations these games suck ass compared to the ******ation that happens on the regular in the hinterland games where I honestly believe some of the players actually WANT to lose

In terms of roll needed I think bringing 5k should be ample assuming you are not prone to being a tilt monkey. You could prolly bring less and have $$$ available in a checking acct that you could access via atm if you dont like having cash
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Old 02-21-2016, 06:41 PM   #13528
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Well ****, if those games are so juicy somebody rent me a damn room and I'll go crush right quick
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Old 02-21-2016, 09:38 PM   #13529
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I went to maryland live 2yrs ago with less than $3k playing 1/2, ran poorly (and degened some stupid table game cuz lolpromo) and still had ample $.

Couple months ago went to borgata to gring 2/5 with $5k during their tourney series and ran average (one day of playing a whale and another playing an aggtard, but also got set over setted and a few other spots like missing combo draws twice, chopped once, then played bad at 5T by jamming KK into a set), also lost lots of credit card games, was never in a spot i felt like 5k was too little.
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Old 02-21-2016, 10:07 PM   #13530
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Well ****, if those games are so juicy somebody rent me a damn room and I'll go crush right quick
Squid exaggerates to the extreme. Games are certifiable awful. Stay away, you're better off anywhere.
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Old 02-22-2016, 10:45 AM   #13531
YGOchamp
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Now somebody is trying to convince me they aren't handing out free money at said casino.... SO IT MUST BE TRUE.

ON MY WAY
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Old 02-22-2016, 12:18 PM   #13532
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
Not sure why this would be impossible?

My guess would be unlikely to dry up to the point of unbeatable, although I'm guessing it could very easily dry up to the point of being beatable-but-not-by-much.

Gyes,butunlikely,althoughobviouslygettingworse,imo G
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Old 02-22-2016, 01:39 PM   #13533
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
Anything is possible, except for this.
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:16 PM   #13534
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?

If they let you play 10 tables and use a computer to model your opponents.. then yes
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:34 PM   #13535
johnny_on_the_spot
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
Anything is possible. The better question would be what is the probability? and that would ultimately be low.

Though if the government devalues the dollar enough, it could happen eventually
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:43 PM   #13536
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
When the min buy is $60 and many go that route, WR ceiling gets low.
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Old 02-22-2016, 02:54 PM   #13537
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When the min buy is $60 and many go that route, WR ceiling gets low.
Exactly. Populate a table with 9 shortstacking nits with upwards of $200 coming off the table in rake+ (not exactly an "impossible" scenario) and I doubt anyone is going to manage a crushing winrate.

GI'mguessing10-20%(???)ofmytimeisspentattablesnottoofarofftheseG
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:11 PM   #13538
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Rake is the biggest threat to any game. It's very possible 1/2 dies because casinos keep upping the rake.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:24 PM   #13539
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Exactly. Populate a table with 9 shortstacking nits with upwards of $200 coming off the table in rake+ (not exactly an "impossible" scenario) and I doubt anyone is going to manage a crushing winrate.

GI'mguessing10-20%(???)ofmytimeisspentattablesnottoofarofftheseG
I must be blessed. It is rare that I sit in a 1/2 game and not feel like 8 of the 10 players have zero chance to leave with money over time. When it does happen a table change always remedies that.

It is 2:20pm on a Monday afternoon and bravo shows 11 1/2 games running at MDL.

As long as the very few winning players can't create 10 or 20 copies of themselves to play at every table like they can by multi tabling online, live low stakes in areas with strong economies will be fine.

Ratio of recreational to serious player is the key.

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Old 02-22-2016, 03:35 PM   #13540
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Let me change the question then: will the lowest stakes offered in a live setting ever dry up? I tend to think not because the fish will always be there even if the poker fad has long since disappeared. I can see us returning to the pre boom days however where all games of significance were in garages etc.

I honestly wouldn't mind that happening too much because the short stacking nits who we all despise don't get invited to those games.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:46 PM   #13541
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Let me change the question then: will the lowest stakes offered in a live setting ever dry up? I tend to think not because the fish will always be there even if the poker fad has long since disappeared.
Are the bad players that were sitting at your table 5/10/etc. years ago as bad as the bad players sitting at your table now?

Are there as many bad players sitting at your table now as there was x years ago?

Are the good players sitting at your table better than the good players sitting at your table x years ago?

Are there more good players sitting at your table now as there was x years ago?

Ditto for the number of breakevenish type players sitting at your table now versus then.

The trend in my room (11 years old) is definitely heading in a particular direction; your room might differ, although my guess is that in time most rooms will trend in the same direction. Doesn't mean the games will become unbeatable, but they are likely to become much more difficult to beat and *perhaps* impossible to crush (at least for us mere mortal rec players).

Gnoonenoticestheskyfallingwhenitfallsonecloudatati meG
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:49 PM   #13542
Mr Sandbag
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Depends on the location. I doubt they'll all dry up at the same time. Cities that are tourist destinations and have booming economies and high costs of living will dry up the slowest, if at all. Smaller, poorer cities might die the soonest. The ability of top players to move up is also a huge factor.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:53 PM   #13543
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I think the inevitable result of the poker boom is what we see now. More exposure brought more players to the game both good and bad and most of the bad flamed out. I don't ever see it trending so far that there are no bad players. There will always be some bad gambly fish who don't care to get better and just want to have fun. I also can see a lot of good/break even players leaving too as their results don't improve and likely go down. I suspect the evolution of poker will be cyclic. The only thing that will make a lasting change IMO is the availability of information which anyone can use to stop being terrible. Again though I think this will be limited due to most people's aversion to hard work and the diminishing returns of concerted study.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:57 PM   #13544
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Originally Posted by Mr Sandbag View Post
The ability of top players to move up is also a huge factor.
This is also huge. In a place where only 1 stake runs (ex. my room, and I'm assuming there are lots of rooms like this) there is nowhere for the better players to go (thus they take up a seat in a game which I'd rather have go to a lesser player).

Gbigfish,crowdedlittlepondG
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:57 PM   #13545
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
I must be blessed. It is rare that I sit in a 1/2 game and not feel like 8 of the 10 players have zero chance to leave with money over time. When it does happen a table change always remedies that.

It is 2:20pm on a Monday afternoon and bravo shows 11 1/2 games running at MDL.

As long as the very few winning players can't create 10 or 20 copies of themselves to play at every table like they can by multi tabling online, live low stakes in areas with strong economies will be fine.

Ratio of recreational to serious player is the key.

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums
You're missing the point.

GG didn't say players are leaving the table with money, but rather money is going to the house instead of other players.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:59 PM   #13546
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If they let you play 10 tables and use a computer to model your opponents.. then yes
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:03 PM   #13547
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I think the inevitable result of the poker boom is what we see now. More exposure brought more players to the game both good and bad and most of the bad flamed out. I don't ever see it trending so far that there are no bad players. There will always be some bad gambly fish who don't care to get better and just want to have fun. I also can see a lot of good/break even players leaving too as their results don't improve and likely go down. I suspect the evolution of poker will be cyclic. The only thing that will make a lasting change IMO is the availability of information which anyone can use to stop being terrible. Again though I think this will be limited due to most people's aversion to hard work and the diminishing returns of concerted study.
I don't see it as cyclic at all, but I'm a pessimist at heart.

Since the boom hit, those who have wanted to play poker did. And they entered a much easier / fun filled environment than the late bloomer trying it out now does (at least in established markets), and yet they still flamed out and quit (or adapted so they wouldn't lose as much). And the old guy who learned how to be good at poker by watching it on TV being replaced by the young kid who has grown up with every bit of knowledge about everything available on their iPhone? Not a good trade, imo.

GpessimistG
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:35 PM   #13548
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
This is also huge. In a place where only 1 stake runs (ex. my room, and I'm assuming there are lots of rooms like this) there is nowhere for the better players to go (thus they take up a seat in a game which I'd rather have go to a lesser player).

Gbigfish,crowdedlittlepondG
Agree, and once again I'm blessed. I'm 100% sure that my hourly at 1/2 is better than some of the 2/5 reg/wannabes in my room that let their ego stop them from playing in the smaller games. And MDL often runs 5/10, occasionally 10/25 NL along with a few different levels of PLO. On Friday there was a very rowdy, drunk 75/150 limit game running right beside my table.



Best games are second or third biggest games in the room.
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Old 02-22-2016, 04:55 PM   #13549
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Keep in mind the poker boom coincided with the front side of an economic boom or bubble depending on your view. When people were flush with cash and using helocs like ATMs it was easy to drop a couple Buyins every week at the card room.

My observation is the worst of the "boomers" that fed lowstakes cash games and didn't learn to lose slower migrated to low buyin tournaments. With rebuys now it's largely unnecessary for them to play cash.
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:01 PM   #13550
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Keep in mind the poker boom coincided with the front side of an economic boom or bubble depending on your view. When people were flush with cash and using helocs like ATMs it was easy to drop a couple Buyins every week at the card room.

My observation is the worst of the "boomers" that fed lowstakes cash games and didn't learn to lose slower migrated to low buyin tournaments. With rebuys now it's largely unnecessary for them to play cash.
^^^^^^^^^^^^

That, and the migration to big bet cash games made the fish go broke quicker. Even with capped buy-ins, weaker players can't last when compared to limit games where they at least have a fighting chance...
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