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Old 02-16-2016, 01:16 PM   #13501
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by `Fearu View Post
Anyone play with a rake similar to 5+2 ?

I know I'm getting slightly higher rake then most places but im curious as to amount if rakeback people are getting. Right now I'm sitting at 2500$ in promotional money for 2016 which I know is insanely high for only 180 hour played. Just curious if anyone else has stats I can use to compare.
Are you taking about things like high hand prizes?
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Old 02-16-2016, 01:33 PM   #13502
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He must be.

What kind of equity are you getting in those promotions? You have basically been getting $14/hr in promotions. If that's on par with the equity, then I wouldn't have any problem with that drop. But if you are getting $2/hr in equity, then you are obviously running way hot in variance and I wouldn't exactly be too excited with that structure.

Keep in mind, most promotions do bring in players and increase overall equity for winning players because of various factors.
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Old 02-16-2016, 01:54 PM   #13503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just about everywhere in FL is some variant of 5+2, also MDL.

My very rough guess of tyipcal high hand promotional equity (rakeback) is $3-$5 / hr. But it depends, of course. Lots of variance. Depends when you play, what you play. yada, yada, yada.
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:00 PM   #13504
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Zuneit
I remember reading an article in Card Player magazine, where the author of the article pitted the same Hero Bot vs. the same line up of Bots & played enough hands for a lifetime. He did this 4-5 times.

In one instance, the Hero was subjected to a losing streak that the author did not believe was possible. In another instance, the Hero never had a meaningful losing streak.

I don't remember if it was 1,2 or 3 million hands per run. 1 million hands would take 20 years @ 25 hands per hour playing 2000 hours per year.

So, although the results over 7 months, totaling 790 hours are meaningful to a degree, I choose to disagree that it is anywhere near what is required to be considered solid evidence of a player's skill set.

I've logged 1421 hours since I started using a session logger app in Feb2015 & I still can't decide how much weight to put on my WR as evidence of my skill set.
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By the time you have any meaningful data you should have improved to a point were your data should not reflect your current playing ability.
Since the Bots' skill set does not improve over the course of 1 million hands, the author's test did nothing more than identify how much of an impact that variance, may or may not have, on a player's results over time.

I play ~110 hours per month, so over 6 months that's 660 hours. If my true WR is Xbb's pr hr & my skill set does not dramatically decay or improve, I am certain that my results over the next 660 hours could be off considerably, one way or another, from my capability based upon my current skill set.

Furthermore, there are numerous variables a player encounters playing live vs. the author pitting a Bot against the same 9 Bots.

So why do I track my WR? For the sole purpose of identifying my profitability.

Identifying one's change in how he plays is more crucial to me. I keep a record of all my bad & good plays and strive to limit the percentage of bad plays.

A few days ago a wild player, with whom I've played against for over a year, sat down at our table, as he pulled ~$200 out of his pockets. He won a hand or two & then got involved with me HU after the flop. I bet the turn with AK on a KQxx board and he snap shipped ~$145 which was maybe $35 more than the pot. As I pondered whether to call, I gathered chips while observing him. He chewing his gum as if it was his ex-wife that he was preparing to spit out & I finally deduced it was at least 50/50 [if not in my favor] as to whether he had me beat & I called.

I won, that time, and I was suddenly up well over $400 in a 1/2 game that I'd only been playing in for ~2.5 hours, as I had been winning before that hand. It gave a nice little boost to my 2016 WR, which totals 190.74 hours already.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fearu
Anyone play with a rake similar to 5+2 ?

I know I'm getting slightly higher rake then most places but im curious as to amount if rakeback people are getting. Right now I'm sitting at 2500$ in promotional money for 2016 which I know is insanely high for only 180 hour played. Just curious if anyone else has stats I can use to compare.
You don't add rakeback or promotion money you won, on to your win rate. Your win rate is the amount of BBs per hour that you win from skill, not luck or gratitude from the casino for playing there.
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:18 PM   #13505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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You don't add rakeback or promotion money you won, on to your win rate. Your win rate is the amount of BBs per hour that you win from skill, not luck or gratitude from the casino for playing there.

here we go again....
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:39 PM   #13506
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You don't add rakeback or promotion money you won, on to your win rate. Your win rate is the amount of BBs per hour that you win from skill, not luck or gratitude from the casino for playing there.
It's good to know both figures but you def can't ignore it. If the room didn't rake for promos at all your win rate would be higher, so why contribute to the fund but never factor it in when you get some back?

Obviously you don't want to plan your future based on a $50/hour win rate at 1/2 because you ran super hot in promos recently, but I think it's a pretty easy situation to use proper judgment.
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Old 02-16-2016, 02:54 PM   #13507
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here we go again....
LOL...at least he didn't blab on about his poker stories.
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Old 02-16-2016, 03:51 PM   #13508
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
Are you taking about things like high hand prizes?
Yeah all the casinos I play at offer some sort of high hand type prizes, was wondering if anyone has tracked results over a large sample size. I'm just trying to get an idea of what to normally expect.

I normally play at off hours so I expect my rate to be more consistent.

But I know right now I'm on what must be a super heater for promotional money. I know the total was 2500 but that was from at least 10 different promotions which is insane, When I get to 500 hours I'll post my spreadsheet it's pretty gross looking right now.

I currently don't record my comp dollars or tips only because if I did I would start thinking about it to often, and if it gets to the point where how much I'm tipping matters I'll proably stop playing.

Last edited by `Fearu; 02-16-2016 at 04:08 PM.
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Old 02-16-2016, 04:57 PM   #13509
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You can figure out how far above EV you are running in promotion just by figuring out your EV of these promotions.
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Old 02-16-2016, 05:33 PM   #13510
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Right. My rough $3-$5 / hr is just an educated guess. I occasionally count how many people are playing jackpot eligible games, how much is being awarded per hour, estimate how much edge is slanted to limit vs 1-2 vs 2-5 and I usually get something in that range.
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Old 02-20-2016, 06:55 PM   #13511
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For the vegas wsop regulars here what percentage of you bankroll do you bring with/advise someone to bring.
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Old 02-20-2016, 07:02 PM   #13512
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For the vegas wsop regulars here what percentage of you bankroll do you bring with/advise someone to bring.
100%
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Old 02-21-2016, 01:20 AM   #13513
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Originally Posted by connormcgregor View Post
For the vegas wsop regulars here what percentage of you bankroll do you bring with/advise someone to bring.
how long do you plan on being in town
how many and what events do you plan on playing
what cash games and how many hours do you plan on playing
are you a winning player
how much do you plan on spending on food
how much do you plan on spending on lodging
how much do you plan on spending on going out/partying/hookers/blow
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Old 02-21-2016, 05:05 AM   #13514
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6 weeks playing strictly cash 1-3, 2-5 nl and 1-2 and 1-3 plo no events or comps of any kind. This poker money only I'm asking about, nothing else what percentage of your roll do you guys take? And what percentage would you advise me to take? Have 23k roll in £ which is 33k US dollars, hopefully i am still able to increase this significantly by June.

I will already have money aside for food expenses gym ect.

Last edited by connormcgregor; 02-21-2016 at 05:06 AM. Reason: Forgot detail
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Old 02-21-2016, 05:08 AM   #13515
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Such a weird question. How could anyone possibly answer that question better than yourself? We know nothing about you.

It's really not an important question anyway. The much more important question is,"Should i go to wsop to play low stakes cash?"

Answer: Absolutely not. Total waste of time and money. Games there will be some of the worst in the country.
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Old 02-21-2016, 05:50 AM   #13516
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Yea vegas has dried up, it's getting worse every year.

It's worth it to go there if you are going with friends and planning on taking a vacation. Going there alone or just to grind, you will regret it.
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Old 02-21-2016, 05:52 AM   #13517
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sorry if stupid had never been before all the guys I know going are going to grind events. Ok disgarding the percentage thing just how much money do you take to Vegas for poker trips to play poker, again disregarding food ect poker only ?
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Old 02-21-2016, 06:25 AM   #13518
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sorry if stupid had never been before all the guys I know going are going to grind events. Ok disgarding the percentage thing just how much money do you take to Vegas for poker trips to play poker, again disregarding food ect poker only ?
10k
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Old 02-21-2016, 06:55 AM   #13519
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Originally Posted by connormcgregor View Post
how much money do you take to Vegas for poker trips to play poker, again disregarding food ect poker only ?
For $1-2 and $1-3, I bring $700 to the casino and lost everything I brought twice. 430 sessions.

That's for 1 day not x weeks, but you can extrapolate it.
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Old 02-21-2016, 07:34 AM   #13520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by connormcgregor View Post
6 weeks playing strictly cash 1-3, 2-5 nl and 1-2 and 1-3 plo no events or comps of any kind. This poker money only I'm asking about, nothing else what percentage of your roll do you guys take? And what percentage would you advise me to take? Have 23k roll in £ which is 33k US dollars, hopefully i am still able to increase this significantly by June.

I will already have money aside for food expenses gym ect.
I saw someone said Vegas is drying up & the games are dying, however, you're talking about during the WSOP events. I thought the games were good during that time. Squid Face would know.

I'm conservative, so I wouldn't take more than 2.5x the max I've ever lost over a 6 week period. Not that I'd be willing to lose that much. If I lost 1x I'd probably be taking a week's break by the pool.
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Old 02-21-2016, 11:02 AM   #13521
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Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
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Old 02-21-2016, 01:37 PM   #13522
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Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
Seems very unlikely
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Old 02-21-2016, 02:33 PM   #13523
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Is it possible for 1/2 to ever dry up?
If inflation ever kills the dollar completely it might. But then we'd have all the same mopes playing $2/5.

If $1/2 can survive (and thrive) when the economy in MI took a dump and the car companies almost died .... I expect it to survive anything.
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Old 02-21-2016, 03:25 PM   #13524
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It dried up for those who sit there for hours waiting to flop a set, finally did, and only to see everyone check to river and fold.
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Old 02-21-2016, 05:12 PM   #13525
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Yeah lol @ people saying games there are bad, you're just plain wrong.

You couldn't possibly need more then 5k if you aren't playing anything above 2/5

I mean... it's possible, but at the point of losing almost 20% of your roll on a trip I'd call it quits at that point.
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