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Old 02-15-2016, 07:10 PM   #13476
de4df1sh
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What is a reasonable St Dev for live poker?
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:21 PM   #13477
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
The incorrect but effective way is to take the stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).

^ that is completely incorrect (as warned).. but will get you rather close to an accurate number. Additional dirty steps are to throw out any sessions that are really short from both lists (.. say < 60 minutes).
stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).
31.51 / sqrt (8.09) = 11.075 BB per hour? (8:05 average in time format)

Is that right?

My shortest session in sample is 3:40 and longest is 18:13.



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Old 02-15-2016, 07:24 PM   #13478
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Don't correct your session results to hourly. Leave them in as total result
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:36 PM   #13479
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
How should I calculate?

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This is what I've been using. I think it's correct.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:39 PM   #13480
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
stdev{session results} / sqrt(average session length).
31.51 / sqrt (8.09) = 11.075 BB per hour? (8:05 average in time format)

Is that right?

My shortest session in sample is 3:40 and longest is 18:13.



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No. We don't know what the 31.51 number is, so don't use it in the calc.
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:41 PM   #13481
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
What is a reasonable St Dev for live poker?
I think 60-120 bb hr for most NLHE, but I'll go with whatever bip! says on that one.
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:45 PM   #13482
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
No. We don't know what the 31.51 number is, so don't use it in the calc.



2 sigma certain 31.51 is the standard deviation of his "hourly result" from each session.
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Old 02-15-2016, 07:58 PM   #13483
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With thanks to bip! math, updated std dev for last 7 months of results:

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 84.97 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev - to much of a pain to do on android spreadsheet app

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev - to much of a pain to do on android spreadsheet app


So; fish on a heater, getting better or opponents getting worse?

Or completely meaninglessness?



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Old 02-15-2016, 08:02 PM   #13484
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Because the first statement is not actually a thing.
Unexploitable in the sense that opponents cant adjust their game in any way to exploit you.

If you dont believe the above to be a true statement about "GTO", then its you who dont know what GTO means.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:22 PM   #13485
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Zippy - very nice results.

Breaking it down to sub-periods & trends is akin to finding faces in clouds... look hard enough and you will see whatever you want to see.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:45 PM   #13486
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Zippy - very nice results.

Breaking it down to sub-periods & trends is akin to finding faces in clouds... look hard enough and you will see whatever you want to see.
Best answer
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Old 02-15-2016, 09:44 PM   #13487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
With thanks to bip! math, updated std dev for last 7 months of results:

Most recent 440 hours
Cashed 37/54 for 68%
BB/hour 10.69
St dev 84.97 bb/hour

Most recent 329
29/41 for 70%
BB/hour 12.73
Std dev - to much of a pain to do on android spreadsheet app

Most recent 209 hours
19/24 for 79%
BB/hour 17.27
Std dev - to much of a pain to do on android spreadsheet app


So; fish on a heater, getting better or opponents getting worse?

Or completely meaninglessness?



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I do not like the attitude prevalent in this forum that such a sample size is basically meaningless. You can quantify the "meaningfulness" and decide for yourself what you think of it.

To give an idea, with that observed SD and BB/h over a 440 hour sample in theory your true winrate is 95% to fall within the range (10.69-1.96*84.97/sqrt(440), 10.69+1.96*84.97/sqrt(440)) = (2.75 BB/h, 18.63 BB/h)

This page has info for calculating confidence intervals for a normally distributed data set https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error

In reality this is not perfect because results are not normally distributed over a 440 hour sample AFAIK. Also, we know based on many others' results that the upper part of that range is not a sustainable winrate.

You can see that such a sample size only tells you that you are likely at least a small winner. It's still reasonably possible, but unlikely, that you're really a fish on a massive heater.

My logs show a similar trend as yours. My most recent 200 hours has me at 23.0BB/h while my entire 456 hour sample has me at 14.8 BB/h. I know I am improving but the sample size isn't large enough to demonstrate that fact with reasonable confidence, and 23 BB/h would likely be unsustainable even for an elite super-crusher
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Old 02-15-2016, 10:47 PM   #13488
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You may not like it, but the truth is it is largely meaningless from a purely statistical standpoint. Unless you've played a a few hundred thousand handsonline you really can'thave perspective of what variance can do to you over a few thousand hands. 440hrs is at max 13k hands. The higher the win rate, the more likely you're a winner of course, but you can't be certain just based on the results.

We can also judge based on how you play and win. At this point, we have a pretty good idea about what winning players do. So, if your game looks a lot like many many other winner's game, then you're probably a winner. If you have a 25bb/hr winrate over several hundred hours and you're posting insane HH's and sh*t strat, I might start to wonder if you've been on the good side of variance.
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Old 02-15-2016, 11:09 PM   #13489
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
You may not like it, but the truth is it is largely meaningless from a purely statistical standpoint. Unless you've played a a few hundred thousand handsonline you really can'thave perspective of what variance can do to you over a few thousand hands. 440hrs is at max 13k hands. The higher the win rate, the more likely you're a winner of course, but you can't be certain just based on the results.

We can also judge based on how you play and win. At this point, we have a pretty good idea about what winning players do. So, if your game looks a lot like many many other winner's game, then you're probably a winner. If you have a 25bb/hr winrate over several hundred hours and you're posting insane HH's and sh*t strat, I might start to wonder if you've been on the good side of variance.
My objection is only that people like to describe samples with a statistically quantifiable indication of reality as meaningless. They just say it means nothing without any qualifiers.

Whether or not a sample is meaningful to us depends on what question are we trying to answer. If we're comparing win-rates among players of similar ability then a 440 hour sample is not nearly enough. If we simply want some validation that we're beating a game then a 440 hour sample is very meaningful, especially in conjunction with other players' evaluations of our ability based on our HH's and strat postings.
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Old 02-15-2016, 11:23 PM   #13490
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
You may not like it, but the truth is it is largely meaningless from a purely statistical standpoint. Unless you've played a a few hundred thousand handsonline you really can'thave perspective of what variance can do to you over a few thousand hands. 440hrs is at max 13k hands. The higher the win rate, the more likely you're a winner of course, but you can't be certain just based on the results.

We can also judge based on how you play and win. At this point, we have a pretty good idea about what winning players do. So, if your game looks a lot like many many other winner's game, then you're probably a winner. If you have a 25bb/hr winrate over several hundred hours and you're posting insane HH's and sh*t strat, I might start to wonder if you've been on the good side of variance.
Couple this with the arguments often made in this thread that in live the high likelihood that you are a different player and\or your specific poker environment has changed over X hundred hour period; all win rate discussion are at best an interesting thought exercise.

And so the cycle of life is repeated

I have several hundred thousands hands of online play in my poker tracker db, but latest entry is from April 14th a bunch of years ago. Stopped playing after that for a long while.

Live low stakes is nothing like grinding 50nl online. Not even close. 1/2 players are for the most part just awful. Bet/fold for value, calling poker is loosing poker, play an exploitable style for decent lower variance income from your hobby.

How often do you sit at a 10 handed 1/2 table and after 60 minutes feel 100% confident that 6 or 7 of your opponents have ZERO chance to not go broke overtime unless they stop playing? Only variable is how much time and what maximum win rate is theoretically possible with time being the 60 minutes per hour constant in the equation.


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Old 02-15-2016, 11:28 PM   #13491
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
My objection is only that people like to describe samples with a statistically quantifiable indication of reality as meaningless. They just say it means nothing without any qualifiers.



Whether or not a sample is meaningful to us depends on what question are we trying to answer. If we're comparing win-rates among players of similar ability then a 440 hour sample is not nearly enough. If we simply want some validation that we're beating a game then a 440 hour sample is very meaningful, especially in conjunction with other players' evaluations of our ability based on our HH's and strat postings.

Correct, 440 hours are probably sufficient t know whether someone is a winner.

But most people who post these charts aren't asking whether they're winner, but rather how big of winner they are. If you have won 3000bb after 300 hours, do you really need others to validate that you win?
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Old 02-15-2016, 11:37 PM   #13492
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Correct, 440 hours are probably sufficient t know whether someone is a winner.

But most people who post these charts aren't asking whether they're winner, but rather how big of winner they are. If you have won 3000bb after 300 hours, do you really need others to validate that you win?
Agree. I just find theoretical discussion of what maximum rate is possible interesting.



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Old 02-16-2016, 01:06 AM   #13493
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Couple this with the arguments often made in this thread that in live the high likelihood that you are a different player and\or your specific poker environment has changed over X hundred hour period; all win rate discussion are at best an interesting thought exercise.

And so the cycle of life is repeated

I have several hundred thousands hands of online play in my poker tracker db, but latest entry is from April 14th a bunch of years ago. Stopped playing after that for a long while.

Live low stakes is nothing like grinding 50nl online. Not even close. 1/2 players are for the most part just awful. Bet/fold for value, calling poker is loosing poker, play an exploitable style for decent lower variance income from your hobby.

How often do you sit at a 10 handed 1/2 table and after 60 minutes feel 100% confident that 6 or 7 of your opponents have ZERO chance to not go broke overtime unless they stop playing? Only variable is how much time and what maximum win rate is theoretically possible with time being the 60 minutes per hour constant in the equation.


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LLSNL and 10nl/5nl/2nl actually compare quite similarly, especially when you head over to the micro forum or beginners forum and see all the people who can't beat 5nl you start to see why some many people can't beat 1/2 live.

The best though is when your playing live and terrible Vs start talking about how they play online at the exact same level they play live I just wish I could find these guys to play 200nl/500nl online for 80-120 hands/hour
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Old 02-16-2016, 01:16 AM   #13494
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I remember reading an article in Card Player magazine, where the author of the article pitted the same Hero Bot vs. the same line up of Bots & played enough hands for a lifetime. He did this 4-5 times.

In one instance, the Hero was subjected to a losing streak that the author did not believe was possible. In another instance, the Hero never had a meaningful losing streak.

I don't remember if it was 1,2 or 3 million hands per run. 1 million hands would take 20 years @ 25 hands per hour playing 2000 hours per year.

So, although the results over 7 months, totaling 790 hours are meaningful to a degree, I choose to disagree that it is anywhere near what is required to be considered solid evidence of a player's skill set.

I've logged 1421 hours since I started using a session logger app in Feb2015 & I still can't decide how much weight to put on my WR as evidence of my skill set.
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Old 02-16-2016, 08:03 AM   #13495
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Anyone play with a rake similar to 5+2 ?

I know I'm getting slightly higher rake then most places but im curious as to amount if rakeback people are getting. Right now I'm sitting at 2500$ in promotional money for 2016 which I know is insanely high for only 180 hour played. Just curious if anyone else has stats I can use to compare.
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Old 02-16-2016, 08:07 AM   #13496
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I remember reading an article in Card Player magazine, where the author of the article pitted the same Hero Bot vs. the same line up of Bots & played enough hands for a lifetime. He did this 4-5 times.

In one instance, the Hero was subjected to a losing streak that the author did not believe was possible. In another instance, the Hero never had a meaningful losing streak.

I don't remember if it was 1,2 or 3 million hands per run. 1 million hands would take 20 years @ 25 hands per hour playing 2000 hours per year.

So, although the results over 7 months, totaling 790 hours are meaningful to a degree, I choose to disagree that it is anywhere near what is required to be considered solid evidence of a player's skill set.

I've logged 1421 hours since I started using a session logger app in Feb2015 & I still can't decide how much weight to put on my WR as evidence of my skill set.
By the time you have any meaningful data you should have improved to a point were your data should not reflect your current playing ability.
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Old 02-16-2016, 09:40 AM   #13497
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LLSNL and 10nl/5nl/2nl actually compare quite similarly, especially when you head over to the micro forum or beginners forum and see all the people who can't beat 5nl you start to see why some many people can't beat 1/2 live.



The best though is when your playing live and terrible Vs start talking about how they play online at the exact same level they play live I just wish I could find these guys to play 200nl/500nl online for 80-120 hands/hour

Yeah, I remember the table fish at my 5/5 game saying he played 5:5 and 5:10 online and just being aghast. I actually felt bad for him as he talked about how rigged it was and how he could never win.
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Old 02-16-2016, 10:23 AM   #13498
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Yeah, I remember the table fish at my 5/5 game saying he played 5:5 and 5:10 online and just being aghast. I actually felt bad for him as he talked about how rigged it was and how he could never win.
Buy him a drink and agree that yes, the $5/10 on PS is rigged.
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Old 02-16-2016, 12:12 PM   #13499
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Originally Posted by `Fearu View Post
Anyone play with a rake similar to 5+2 ?

I know I'm getting slightly higher rake then most places but im curious as to amount if rakeback people are getting. Right now I'm sitting at 2500$ in promotional money for 2016 which I know is insanely high for only 180 hour played. Just curious if anyone else has stats I can use to compare.
are you counting comp dollars?
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Old 02-16-2016, 12:42 PM   #13500
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I think we all generally agree on this. The statistics although telling are not concrete evidence of winrate or even winning at all. We have mountains of anecdotal evidence however that can be used to justify the winning (or losing). I don't have near enough data to show that I'm a winner or how much I'm winning. I am 100% certain though that I am one of if not the best player in my local pool. Whether results bear that out is why the fish keep coming back (I might be the fish).
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