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Old 02-14-2016, 12:37 AM   #13426
spikeraw22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Kebabkungen View Post
Playing a style that is unexploitable. Tbh I'm not sure such a game is be GTO solvable, but isn't short stack tourney play up to like at least 20bb solved?
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Originally Posted by Kebabkungen View Post
I do know what it means, not sure why you think otherwise.
Because the first statement is not actually a thing.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:37 AM   #13427
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
''Are you sure you want to add Richard Parker to your ignore list? ''



YES

:-). Appreciate the support.
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Old 02-14-2016, 07:09 AM   #13428
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

here's a little chip porn to get things back on track. ran very poorly at 2/5 in february so i used my "i'm due for a heater of a session" at 10/10. did not disappoint.

cashed out ~6800 (bought in for 1k). have a couple of hands to post in mid-high stakes.

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Old 02-14-2016, 08:02 AM   #13429
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

nice hit JB!
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:51 AM   #13430
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
here's a little chip porn to get things back on track. ran very poorly at 2/5 in february so i used my "i'm due for a heater of a session" at 10/10. did not disappoint.

cashed out ~6800 (bought in for 1k). have a couple of hands to post in mid-high stakes.

nice hit.

i like that you use the 'running bad, so it's time to move up' logic.
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:57 AM   #13431
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
nice hit.

i like that you use the 'running bad, so it's time to move up' logic.
it was clearly his time to hit.

its like when you bet $20 on roulette and lose 4 times in a row you now its time to now put down a $1000 bet. its almost a sure thing
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:29 AM   #13432
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah agreed. Anybody who disagrees clearly doesn't understand math. Like, if I flip a coin 4 times in a row and get tails all 4 times, I'm mathematically at a huge advantage to get heads the 5th time.

/kappa
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:52 AM   #13433
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

IL due in powerball. Just waiting for it to hit $1b first. Still won't move up past $1/2 likely because BR nit.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:15 PM   #13434
daniel9861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
I made my point in direct response to what you said about win rate in big blinds increases proportionally to increase in big blinds - ie., "double the blinds, double your win rate in money because your win rate in bbs stay constant".

I'm saying your win rate in bb doesn't stay constant, because it's limited by the effective stack sizes (ie. there are less bbs to be won)

To be fair, I think your win rate in $$ probably increases somewhat just because the pot sizes are bigger/more blinds to steal, but you definitely arent going to see a proportional increase. It's hard to say how much it increases though, and it may not increase at all. Really depends on the game. Much higher variance too playing short stack, so depends if you prefer making a little more with way more variance, or the other way.
Oh, well I already agreed with you that factors would change and winrate wouldn't remain constant. My argument was that creating a mandatory straddle in a bad game might make sense for the winners since it could increase their $/hr to the point where the game is now worth playing whereas it wasn't worth playing without the straddle. Or depending on play style and leaks or how the table is playing/would adjust the bb/hr might not decrease at all for some players.
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Old 02-14-2016, 02:42 PM   #13435
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
it was clearly his time to hit.

its like when you bet $20 on roulette and lose 4 times in a row you now its time to now put down a $1000 bet. its almost a sure thing
Martingale system. Works perfectly every time (assuming an infinite bankroll).

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Old 02-14-2016, 03:31 PM   #13436
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
Oh, well I already agreed with you that factors would change and winrate wouldn't remain constant. My argument was that creating a mandatory straddle in a bad game might make sense for the winners since it could increase their $/hr to the point where the game is now worth playing whereas it wasn't worth playing without the straddle. Or depending on play style and leaks or how the table is playing/would adjust the bb/hr might not decrease at all for some players.
Here may be a relevant example:

If you are winner in a 100bb 2/5 game at 8bb/hr and you shot-take 5/10 game by shortbuying at 50bb, are you not going to expect your winrate to be at least 4bb/hr or more?
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Old 02-14-2016, 03:32 PM   #13437
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Yeah agreed. Anybody who disagrees clearly doesn't understand math. Like, if I flip a coin 4 times in a row and get tails all 4 times, I'm mathematically at a huge advantage to get heads the 5th time.

/kappa
If you ever look at history of someone flipping coin 1000 times, you will see how rare that 5 tails are flipped in the row.

So obviously flipping tail for the 5th time is slim to none.
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Old 02-14-2016, 03:44 PM   #13438
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
If you ever look at history of someone flipping coin 1000 times, you will see how rare that 5 tails are flipped in the row.

So obviously flipping tail for the 5th time is slim to none.
What about 5 heads?
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Old 02-14-2016, 04:59 PM   #13439
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A bit more likely.
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Old 02-14-2016, 05:38 PM   #13440
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tails never fails. DUCY?
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Old 02-14-2016, 05:40 PM   #13441
daniel9861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Here may be a relevant example:

If you are winner in a 100bb 2/5 game at 8bb/hr and you shot-take 5/10 game by shortbuying at 50bb, are you not going to expect your winrate to be at least 4bb/hr or more?
Shottaking isn't the same because now you have to factor in the change in winrate due to the differing player pools whereas when the decision is regular game vs adding a mandatory straddle the player pool stays the same.
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Old 02-14-2016, 06:33 PM   #13442
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
Shottaking isn't the same because now you have to factor in the change in winrate due to the differing player pools whereas when the decision is regular game vs adding a mandatory straddle the player pool stays the same.
If you are shottaking, would you rather have a table full of 5/10 players or 3/5 players?
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:10 PM   #13443
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by philepistemer View Post
Iso limpers wider in co and btn, C-bet more frequently in hu pots, bet the turn more frequently for protection and thin value, and call much tighter when someone makes a big bet unless you have good reason to believe they don't have it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Read these two threads and print mobnies. The F do.
Thanks for the tips guys! Was definitely some good reads. Now to play some FR Bovada until my money arrives, seems to play very similar to live games
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Old 02-15-2016, 06:44 AM   #13444
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
here's a little chip porn to get things back on track. ran very poorly at 2/5 in february so i used my "i'm due for a heater of a session" at 10/10. did not disappoint.

cashed out ~6800 (bought in for 1k). have a couple of hands to post in mid-high stakes.
Is this your blog thread? Just curious
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Old 02-15-2016, 11:15 AM   #13445
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
''Are you sure you want to add Richard Parker to your ignore list? ''

YES
RP is my hero! I'm lookin' forward to the opportunity to play HU against him, while he tacks on 100 posts to the 12,412 he already has.
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Old 02-15-2016, 11:19 AM   #13446
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
here's a little chip porn to get things back on track. ran very poorly at 2/5 in february so i used my "i'm due for a heater of a session" at 10/10. did not disappoint.

cashed out ~6800 (bought in for 1k). have a couple of hands to post in mid-high stakes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k

nice hit.

i like that you use the 'running bad, so it's time to move up' logic.
I am going to the roulette wheel & wait until a number is way overdue to hit & then put $25 on it.

Nice hit johnnyB !
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Old 02-15-2016, 12:08 PM   #13447
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I am going to the roulette wheel & wait until a number is way overdue to hit & then put $25 on it.

Nice hit johnnyB !
It's strictly science, Zune

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Old 02-15-2016, 12:31 PM   #13448
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.
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Old 02-15-2016, 12:36 PM   #13449
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
BR nit check:

15k roll, 5k E fund, 95% of monthly outflow is covered by MrsDeadfish income and our rental income.

Im playing a 100-300 1/3 with MS straddle.
why change a winning formula?

getting to the point where you don't even care about br is awesome
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Old 02-15-2016, 12:51 PM   #13450
daniel9861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
If you are shottaking, would you rather have a table full of 5/10 players or 3/5 players?
There's no need for a rhetorical question. What's your point?
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