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Old 02-01-2016, 11:50 PM   #13126
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tree.fiddy.percent.
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Old 02-02-2016, 01:33 AM   #13127
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Any estimate on the % difference in win rate?
Really depends on the casino as to what type of players will come in later and how the fatigue effects their actions. Very hard to quantify.

From personal experience I'd say its around double, although variance also goes up dramatically.
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Old 02-02-2016, 03:04 AM   #13128
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Some nice January graphs ITT, next few months should be good with tax return season coming up with generally more recreational players at the tables with the money they have gotten back.
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:01 PM   #13129
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I was kinda wishing January would never end. I bested my highest volume month of 2015 by 20 hours (111 hours in January 2016 vs. 91 in May 2015) and destroyed my 2015 average of 70 hours per month. Predictably, I have begun to totally mail it in at work as I become more disenfranchised and plotting my rapidly approaching departure.

January
Profit: $14,150
Hours: 111.2
Hourly: $127.2
Sessions Won: 14/18 (78%)

Biggest Win: $3,500
Biggest Loss: ($1,700)
I guess you already have your mind made up, but there are probably millions of 20 something year old dudes in this country that would kill to be making 100k and working in the finance industry.

Honest question, do you think poker will be sustainable enough in the next ten years for you to earn that kind of income (100k +)? Do you see the games being that good for an indefinite amount of time? How many fish can keep showing up to the casino and afford to be dumping thousands and thousands of dollars as we are living in a never ending recession? Where will all the expandable income come from?
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:27 PM   #13130
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Keep playing another few years and save 100% of your winnings plus 50%+ of your paycheck. Semi-retire early with enough passive income to cover your nut and play poker on the side with no pressure.
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Old 02-02-2016, 09:18 PM   #13131
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I guess you already have your mind made up, but there are probably millions of 20 something year old dudes in this country that would kill to be making 100k and working in the finance industry.

Honest question, do you think poker will be sustainable enough in the next ten years for you to earn that kind of income (100k +)? Do you see the games being that good for an indefinite amount of time? How many fish can keep showing up to the casino and afford to be dumping thousands and thousands of dollars as we are living in a never ending recession? Where will all the expandable income come from?
I don't know how long the good times will last but I intend to burn fast and bright, continue growing my bankroll, moving up limits, putting in time off the table and taking as much money as I can from this game in the shortest time possible.

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Keep playing another few years and save 100% of your winnings plus 50%+ of your paycheck. Semi-retire early with enough passive income to cover your nut and play poker on the side with no pressure.
I thought I could make it another year or so but at this point I can barely get through the days. This job is holding me back in too many other aspects of my life that it's time to cut the chord. I live for the hustle, the eat what you kill mentality and now I get to find out if I'm as good at this game as I think I have the potential to be.

I know what my "ceiling" is in the corporate world. I don't yet know what my ceiling in poker is, and pushing it off further is a massive opportunity cost in my opinion. Somebody once told me "get in poker to get out" and I think that is what I want to devote myself to for the next 2-3 years.

I've got the bankroll. I've got the life roll. I've got no major responsibilities and a fairly small monthly nut relative to others my age. My desk job makes me want to blow my brains out. Poker gets me excited each and every day. I love poker more now than I did 6 months ago, when I loved poker more than I did the 6 months prior to that, when I loved poker more than the 6 months prior to that.

Now's gotta be the time right?
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:15 PM   #13132
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Johnny, as you know, I recently made a similar leap. I'd be a total hypocrite if I told you not to do it. I don't know your whole situation, but I just want to throw a couple things out there.

I think most in your position fail to consider the career possibilities that exist outside of their current job. Just make sure you take the time to think about other possibilities. I'm sure that there are work environments that you would be much happier in. A lot of time people equate their 9 to 5 sucking to all 9 to 5s sucking. In reality, there are a lot of really good jobs out there, especially if you are willing to take the leap into being your own boss.

Also, just make sure you are ready. Most people that quite their jobs have trouble surviving off of poker, much less thriving. Are you really the best player every time you sit down? Do you keep it together when going on a big downswing? Do you have enough hours to be confident in your win rate? Those are just some of the questions you need to ask yourself. Either way best of luck.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:18 PM   #13133
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I am in the process of moving out of poker.

I think I'll be able to by end of this year.

Although I will always maintain my skill edge, or try to, given that poker is literally the most reliable income if you are good.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:43 PM   #13134
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Most people who play poker full time hate it.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:45 PM   #13135
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Well, most people can't do it.

Fwiw, I loved it.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:46 PM   #13136
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Well, most people can't do it.

Fwiw, I loved it.
Why not continue?
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:54 PM   #13137
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Game is only going to get smaller, just nature of a shrinking market.
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:57 PM   #13138
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Yeah I love it. With terrible insomnia I'm unable to keep any consistent sleep schedule. Honestly don't know if I'd ever be able to make it with a 9-5.

Idk, live poker is a good market that I don't see dieing anytime soon; people are going to remain just as bored and just as bad years from now. But thats why the future is PLO!
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Old 02-02-2016, 11:03 PM   #13139
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Well, there are shrinking markets so big that you can't tell they're shrinking, and there are smaller ones.
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Old 02-02-2016, 11:12 PM   #13140
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Johnny, as you know, I recently made a similar leap. I'd be a total hypocrite if I told you not to do it. I don't know your whole situation, but I just want to throw a couple things out there.

I think most in your position fail to consider the career possibilities that exist outside of their current job. Just make sure you take the time to think about other possibilities. I'm sure that there are work environments that you would be much happier in. A lot of time people equate their 9 to 5 sucking to all 9 to 5s sucking. In reality, there are a lot of really good jobs out there, especially if you are willing to take the leap into being your own boss.

Also, just make sure you are ready. Most people that quite their jobs have trouble surviving off of poker, much less thriving. Are you really the best player every time you sit down? Do you keep it together when going on a big downswing? Do you have enough hours to be confident in your win rate? Those are just some of the questions you need to ask yourself. Either way best of luck.
Thanks for the post t_roy. There are a lot of factors. My 9-5 is more like an 8-7 which for an insomiac night owl that stays out at the poker room until 3am makes for a challenging schedule. I've done it for the last year but it was tough. The hours are bad, the location is bad, I'm not developing a skill set that I see transferable to what I want to do in the future. People say poker is a resume killer but I have no intention of rejoining the corporate world.

I'm really just tired of trading my time for a decent wage making someone else rich. Those 50-60 hours a week can be spent on myself, acquiring knowledge, working towards passive income streams, etc. I don't think I will ever achieve that while working the corporate grind.

I would like to flip a house this year. I've got a lot to learn. I've met a lot of older gentlemen involved in real estate on the felt. Who knows - if I spend some of these newly free hours studying up on real estate, building out a cash flow profitability model, attending local conventions/networking events maybe one of them will offer to be a mentor.

I actually find poker to be a pretty good source of networking and I think an older self made fellow would respond favorably to a younger guy hustling, looking to get ahead, learn, etc. Maybe my intentions aren't totally pure but if I can make someone else's life easier on a project in exchange for knowledge - hey why not?

In terms of the preparedness, yah I think I have a sufficient sample size to determine this is a realistic shot. I've got about 1000 hours logged between 1/2 and 2/5 at 12-17 BB's per hour.

tldr; i want my time/life back for myself to pursue my dreams
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Old 02-02-2016, 11:48 PM   #13141
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There was a TV show about flipping houses. Think it got cancelled a few years back though. Maybe you can past episodes on Hulu?
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Old 02-02-2016, 11:54 PM   #13142
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Those shows are pretty full of it. I can't imagine making much profit if you need to pay so many contractors to get the job done.
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Old 02-03-2016, 01:59 AM   #13143
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quit your job yesterday

Last edited by wiffle; 02-03-2016 at 02:02 AM. Reason: minute early...
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Old 02-03-2016, 09:44 AM   #13144
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I've known a guy since 1997 who has been in the biz of buyin' renovating & selling houses long before I met him. He has done quite well, however, just like everyone else, the crash of 2009 hurt.

He profits handsomely because they also have their own real estate business, so those profits also go into their pocket. The don't do any heavy marketing looking for people to come to them to sell their house for them, but if someone does they have more free money if they can sell it, since they have ability to get the house on the market.

The business pays for all of them to go to Vegas once a year in the winter & a fishing trip in the spring/fall, along with another trip whose destination is determined by their wives.

It's a FULL-TIME job, limiting his ability to play poker no more 15 hours a week. And that's on the weekend, and it's not 15 hours every week.
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Old 02-03-2016, 11:31 AM   #13145
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What do you guys do when you have two losing months in a row?
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Old 02-03-2016, 11:44 AM   #13146
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What do you guys do when you have two losing months in a row?
Take a long hard look at what youre doing wrong. As bad as a a lot of live players are, I honestly dont see how you could have back to back losing months if you are playing well. You can tell yourself you're getting unlucky and running bad, but if you step back and take a long hard look I bet you can think of lots of hands you screwed up....or you just just dont have much of an edge over the table in the first place.

Example:

I know a 2/5 pro who plays fairly well. Hes very TAG and ABC but thats enough to win playing live. He got coolered a few times back to back and then played this hand

He raised to $15 with AK. 3 callers.
He bets $40 on a K74 flop. A guy raises to $125. 1 fold, then the next guy goes all in for $300ish. He called and freaked out that he was behind. He was obviously blinded by his losing streak and is compounding it with bad play.
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Old 02-03-2016, 11:52 AM   #13147
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As bad as a a lot of live players are, I honestly dont see how you could have back to back losing months if you are playing well. You can tell yourself you're getting unlucky and running bad, but if you step back and take a long hard look I bet you can think of lots of hands you screwed up....or you just just dont have much of an edge over the table in the first place.
Of course it's totally possible. Especially if you're not playing professionally and only get 50- maaaybe 100 hours in a month.

Obviously we should always be evaluating our play, and many players add some variation of tilt to their downswings. That doesn't make putting a couple hundred losing hours in a row up impossible.
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Old 02-03-2016, 11:55 AM   #13148
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What do you guys do when you have two losing months in a row?
You should question your Relentless Doubt and deal it with accordingly.
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Old 02-03-2016, 12:39 PM   #13149
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I've known a guy since 1997 who has been in the biz of buyin' renovating & selling houses long before I met him. He has done quite well, however, just like everyone else, the crash of 2009 hurt.
Like Zune said, a bulk of money from flipping houses is obv keeping costs low. How do many do that? They do work themselves (Source: father was a builder/licensed electrician who did this for a living and I used to help when I was younger). That's not to say you can't GC it and still make a profit, but you really gotta stay on top of contractors, they tend to do stuff and then not always have time to come back to finish, especially when there isn't someone living there calling them everyday
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Old 02-03-2016, 12:47 PM   #13150
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Like Zune said, a bulk of money from flipping houses is obv keeping costs low. How do many do that? They do work themselves (Source: father was a builder/licensed electrician who did this for a living and I used to help when I was younger). That's not to say you can't GC it and still make a profit, but you really gotta stay on top of contractors, they tend to do stuff and then not always have time to come back to finish, especially when there isn't someone living there calling them everyday
Yah I definitely wouldn't want to half ass it. I'm planning to get in on one with a husband/wife that own a R/E company that I met through poker. More to see how the process works, what's involved, how long money is tied up, etc. and hopefully make a small profit on it. But the knowledge is more important.
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