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Old 02-01-2016, 11:31 AM   #13101
Dizzyqtp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I was kinda wishing January would never end. I bested my highest volume month of 2015 by 20 hours (111 hours in January 2016 vs. 91 in May 2015) and destroyed my 2015 average of 70 hours per month. Predictably, I have begun to totally mail it in at work as I become more disenfranchised and plotting my rapidly approaching departure.

January
Profit: $14,150
Hours: 111.2
Hourly: $127.2
Sessions Won: 14/18 (78%)

Biggest Win: $3,500
Biggest Loss: ($1,700)
Crushing it man - sick month. Hopefully I can be where you are at in due time. Definitely need to get myself playing 2/5 full time.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:51 AM   #13102
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Does anyone have enough hours tracked separately to really know if playing at nights and weekends is really all that more profitable? I play almost exclusively during the daytime with lots of regulars. I can play some evening hours if its really that much more profitable.

What I do know about playing during the day is that its pretty easy to know where you are in a hand with these old guys. If I have AK and bet a K76 flop, and anyone over 65 calls me they have KQ or TT. If they raise they have 76 , 77 or 66. It makes for low stress game but still profitable because they also fold way too much and dont even know what a LAG is.
It's hard to get stats like that Especially taking into account day of the week.

We can make some judgements based on our observations of the players and hands rather than the pure resulting statistics though.

Yes, at a day game with lots of regs/rocks/nits, who play very predictably, we can play a nice straightforward (autopilot) strategy and print money at a nice trickle.

But it's pretty obvious from a half hour's observation that evening games with drunken gamblers have much higher potential. Last night I saw a guy 4-bet shove preflop with T9o for only about $25 more than the 3-bet. I've seen evening games with $100+ straddles, blind shove, and other insanity. Not to mention the standard "bet every street because it's fun" types. Those kinds of games are a little more difficult to navigate, and have the potential for busting you for a couple of buy-ins if the boards aren't running out your way, but you can easily put in a +$100/hr night.

Your real profitability will depend on how well you adjust to the vastly different table conditions. I know some guys that just can't open up enough in the crazy games and just nit it out, but then never get action. Or guys that tilt in those spots and blow buy-in's they shouldn't have.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:17 PM   #13103
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Wrong forum brother! 'Beats, Brags & Variance' forum is that way > https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...rags-variance/
How is my post not applicable?
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:39 PM   #13104
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Awesome! What software are you using here?
Thanks! Im just using excel
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:45 PM   #13105
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
[? to ZuneIt] Why are you still playing 1/2?
For several reasons. One is bankroll. Although I only use my winnings for my own personal expenses [which includes clothes, gym membership & golf], we splurged on Christmas [Almost $250 on 2 dogs was the small price tag] & the 'splurging' came from my bankroll. So, right now I'm sitting on just over 14k.

Sounds like a lot, however, squid face has stated that he once went on a downswing of 7.5k. Now, although he admitted that it was the worse downswing he or his friends had had up to that point, and he had to contribute some of it to bad decisions - he is a pro. So, I need more than 2x 7.5k as far as I'm concerned.

Poker is nothing but enjoyment & absolutely exciting when you have nothing to worry about monetarily!
Except when you go on a one or two month downswing of course. But then you get to practice discipline.

I feel sorry for those players in 1/2 games, who buy-in for $200 & bleed down to $100 & then lose when they're ahead - lose their temper & leave. They leave because they don't have anymore money. It was their 2nd or 3rd buy-in.

When I started out in July 2014 with 2k, Garick & I got into a few discussions about chasing small edges, which he firmly believes in. I argued that there are way too many large edges in 1/2 to be concerned about the small edges. That is not true. However, I did not have the bankroll to chase small edges, nor the skill set in 2014 needed to accurately assess my edge.

Once I built my bankroll up to 4.5k in 2014, I went on an ~1.2k downswing. I questioned my ability, talked to 2 of my decade+ long friends & buried myself in this forum. Mostly reading.

Anyways, based upon my current rating of my ability to determine my edge in a hand at my current skill set, I give myself a 6% margin of error. So, if I believe I have a 10% edge, I'll call without hesitation, because even if I'm wrong, I should [I believe] still have a 4% edge.

I can do that because my bankroll is so large I need not worry about being wrong. Lesson learned at a relatively low price tag. Not so at 2/5. At 2/5, players will try & bully you out of pots with $300+ bets ott. That's a lot of money.

However, because of this built in margin of error I am requiring myself, I'm still missing out on a lot because I should be continuing on hands that I'm not.

Finally, I'm not aggressive enough yet. That was proven in my PAHWM 98s thread. I need to become more accustomed to playing aggressively with draws than I currently am. Couple that with the fact that I know I need improvement on putting players on a range & it's obvious I'm not ready.

I buy-in to 1/2 for $300 & keep it close to $300 every time the button comes around. Sooner if I'm down to $225.00. Imagine buyin' in for $500 in a 2/5 & toppin' off on a regular basis. I have been stuck in a 1/2 game for $875, with only $275 in front of me. That was over only a ~4hr period. All because I had a 55+% edge otf or ott & lost. When you lose to a 4/5/6/ or 7 outter going into the river, it's not hard to find yourself buried, deep, real quick. I considered myself lucky to go home stuck only ~$250.00. Compute that a 2/5 level.

I don't remember where I read it 1st, or who originated the quote "The more I learned about NL Hold 'Em, the more I realized how much I didn't know," however, I believe that you can't find a more accurate quote about the game for those of us learning.

I can contribute 50% of my win rate over the last 3 months to an improvement in my skill set. Maybe a little more. However, I would be a fool to believe that I am now a $20+pr hr long-term crusher.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 02-01-2016 at 01:03 PM.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:57 PM   #13106
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
GTO is a method to play unexploitably. It is not a way to maximize your winrate. It is more widely used to reduce ones losses when playing versus a superior player.

There is almost no reason to play GTO in live poker below 10/25
would argue that trying to play GTO at 10/25 (most lineups) is a waste too

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
mike - I am currently losing 2.5k in my last 140 hours.

I spent the prior 8k+ hours winning at a very high clip. Does that mean that I have gotten significantly worse at poker?

What it means is in small samples there is a LOT of noise...that noise does not quiet down until you hit a reasonable number of hours. Many think that number is north of 1,000 when it comes to live poker
pretty sure spending $2.5k on hookers and blow have nothing to do with your poker WR

also life +ev
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:06 PM   #13107
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Does anyone have enough hours tracked separately to really know if playing at nights and weekends is really all that more profitable? I play almost exclusively during the daytime with lots of regulars. I can play some evening hours if its really that much more profitable.



What I do know about playing during the day is that its pretty easy to know where you are in a hand with these old guys. If I have AK and bet a K76 flop, and anyone over 65 calls me they have KQ or TT. If they raise they have 76 , 77 or 66. It makes for low stress game but still profitable because they also fold way too much and dont even know what a LAG is.

Yes.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:08 PM   #13108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
For several reasons. One is bankroll. Although I only use my winnings for my own personal expenses [which includes clothes, gym membership & golf], we splurged on Christmas [Almost $250 on 2 dogs was the small price tag] & the 'splurging' came from my bankroll. So, right now I'm sitting on just over 14k.

Sounds like a lot, however, squid face has stated that he once went on a downswing of 7.5k. Now, although he admitted that it was the worse downswing he or his friends had had up to that point, and he had to contribute some of it to bad decisions - he is a pro. So, I need more than 2x 7.5k as far as I'm concerned.

Poker is nothing but enjoyment & absolutely exciting when you have nothing to worry about monetarily!
Except when you go on a one or two month downswing of course. But then you get to practice discipline.

I feel sorry for those players in 1/2 games, who buy-in for $200 & bleed down to $100 & then lose when they're ahead - lose their temper & leave. They leave because they don't have anymore money. It was their 2nd or 3rd buy-in.

When I started out in July 2014 with 2k, Garick & I got into a few discussions about chasing small edges, which he firmly believes in. I argued that there are way too many large edges in 1/2 to be concerned about the small edges. That is not true. However, I did not have the bankroll to chase small edges, nor the skill set in 2014 needed to accurately assess my edge.

Once I built my bankroll up to 4.5k in 2014, I went on an ~1.2k downswing. I questioned my ability, talked to 2 of my decade+ long friends & buried myself in this forum. Mostly reading.

Anyways, based upon my current rating of my ability to determine my edge in a hand at my current skill set, I give myself a 6% margin of error. So, if I believe I have a 10% edge, I'll call without hesitation, because even if I'm wrong, I should [I believe] still have a 4% edge.

I can do that because my bankroll is so large I need not worry about being wrong. Lesson learned at a relatively low price tag. Not so at 2/5. At 2/5, players will try & bully you out of pots with $300+ bets ott. That's a lot of money.

However, because of this built in margin of error I am requiring myself, I'm still missing out on a lot because I should be continuing on hands that I'm not.

Finally, I'm not aggressive enough yet. That was proven in my PAHWM 98s thread. I need to become more accustomed to playing aggressively with draws than I currently am. Couple that with the fact that I know I need improvement on putting players on a range & it's obvious I'm not ready.

I buy-in to 1/2 for $300 & keep it close to $300 every time the button comes around. Sooner if I'm down to $225.00. Imagine buyin' in for $500 in a 2/5 & toppin' off on a regular basis. I have been stuck in a 1/2 game for $875, with only $275 in front of me. That was over only a ~4hr period. All because I had a 55+% edge otf or ott & lost. When you lose to a 4/5/6/ or 7 outter going into the river, it's not hard to find yourself buried, deep, real quick. I considered myself lucky to go home stuck only ~$250.00. Compute that a 2/5 level.

I don't remember where I read it 1st, or who originated the quote "The more I learned about NL Hold 'Em, the more I realized how much I didn't know," however, I believe that you can't find a more accurate quote about the game for those of us learning.

I can contribute 50% of my win rate over the last 3 months to an improvement in my skill set. Maybe a little more. However, I would be a fool to believe that I am now a $20+pr hr long-term crusher.

Wrong forum. Blog is that way.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:39 PM   #13109
DonkeyCopter
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I was kinda wishing January would never end. I bested my highest volume month of 2015 by 20 hours (111 hours in January 2016 vs. 91 in May 2015) and destroyed my 2015 average of 70 hours per month. Predictably, I have begun to totally mail it in at work as I become more disenfranchised and plotting my rapidly approaching departure.

January
Profit: $14,150
Hours: 111.2
Hourly: $127.2
Sessions Won: 14/18 (78%)

Biggest Win: $3,500
Biggest Loss: ($1,700)
DamSon.jpeg
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:43 PM   #13110
livefelt
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The very cold months are when some players go broke
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:13 PM   #13111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
It's hard to get stats like that Especially taking into account day of the week.
Poker Journal actually allows you to build custom filters easily with your stats.

And if you convert your sessions into .csv, it isn't hard to filter through Excel either.
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:31 PM   #13112
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Poker Journal actually allows you to build custom filters easily with your stats.

And if you convert your sessions into .csv, it isn't hard to filter through Excel either.
Getting the stats out of the data is easy enough.

Acquiring a reasonable sample size is the tough part.

Then you've got those sessions where you start at noon and play until 4am ... which bin does that go into?
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:39 PM   #13113
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Oh you meant that.

Well, I am sure there aren't many sessions that go on for 16 hours in a large sample size.

Anyhow, I am sure squid has that information.
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:43 PM   #13114
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Does anyone have enough hours tracked separately to really know if playing at nights and weekends is really all that more profitable?
My guess is that the overall sample size would have to be *huge* in order to really have a good idea.

As RP says, PokerJournal has a filter where you can filter this stuff.

But lets say you logged 1,400 hours (a fair sample size most would say) evenly distributed over the 7 days of the week. But that would work out to 200 hours for each day of the week, and we all know 200 hours is pretty meaningless.

For example, my day of the week shows Thursday being 4.5x as profitable as Wednesday (165+ hours in each). My Tuesday is over 2x profitable as my Monday (250+ hours in each). But at these sample sizes, it's just noise, imo.

My Sunday of 928 hours shows me at almost my overall winrate, so getting to have a little more confidence (lol?) in those sample hours.

ETA: On top of all that, you'd have to be putting your evenly distributed hours in evenly over a particular time period to have more confidence. For example, I almost exclusively play Sunday (or Saturday) now, and my weeknight results were mostly put in years ago when the game/conditions were different than they are now.

GblindedbythenoiseG
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:46 PM   #13115
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I'll take the Angrist approach.

Weekdays: you know every player, WR is relatively fixed after several hundred hours.

Nights and weekends: random people walking in and many tables to choose.

If you can beat weekday game, you can probably do better on nights and weekends.
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:46 PM   #13116
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I've got about 4000 hours in my log, and I did some of the day-of week and room by room breakdown the last time I looked at it in detail, but not time of day. I'll take a look the next time I go through it, but I don't play during the day much.

Sometimes I wonder how hard it would be to collect logs from a couple dozen live players and compare/aggregate their statistics. Sure, everyone plays differently and may have a different individual winrate, but it might show some interesting trends/correlations.
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Old 02-01-2016, 02:49 PM   #13117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Sometimes I wonder how hard it would be to collect logs from a couple dozen live players and compare/aggregate their statistics. Sure, everyone plays differently and may have a different individual winrate, but it might show some interesting trends/correlations.
Assume you can and you can even make these numbers up, what kind of interesting trends/correlations do you think might show up?

If it's worthwhile, I'll figure things out.
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Old 02-01-2016, 03:07 PM   #13118
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Well, you may have enough data to take a stab at day of week and time of day winrates with reasonable sample sizes for one.

I wonder how a player's winrate and standard deviation are linked, do players with higher SD also have higher WR's?

How much does the SD vary from player to player?

Are winrate and session length coupled? As in are longer sessions inherently worse or better than shorter sessions?

With a large overall sample you can also select smaller subsamples and show how many hours you'd need to collect to get a reasonable estimate of the overall winrate. Granted, that's possible to estimate from the underlying math on its own. But how well do we know what the SD is supposed to be for those calculations?


I haven't really formulated a plan for what I'd do with more data, but I'd be interested in crunching some numbers if there was interest in putting something together.
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Old 02-01-2016, 03:56 PM   #13119
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I do data analysis for a living and would love to take some of this on if we could get data from many players in csv format or something. I could aggregate the data and then take requests for questions/predictions/filters/visualizations/whatever.
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Old 02-01-2016, 04:48 PM   #13120
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Poker Journal actually allows you to build custom filters easily with your stats.
.
Thankfully

After putting in proper filters, January cease to exist.
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Old 02-01-2016, 07:34 PM   #13121
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Thankfully

After putting in proper filters, January cease to exist.
Hahaha.

If it can help your mental game, why not?
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Old 02-01-2016, 08:17 PM   #13122
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Might lose track of the lies you tell yourself.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:19 PM   #13123
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Does anyone have enough hours tracked separately to really know if playing at nights and weekends is really all that more profitable? I play almost exclusively during the daytime with lots of regulars. I can play some evening hours if its really that much more profitable.

What I do know about playing during the day is that its pretty easy to know where you are in a hand with these old guys. If I have AK and bet a K76 flop, and anyone over 65 calls me they have KQ or TT. If they raise they have 76 , 77 or 66. It makes for low stress game but still profitable because they also fold way too much and dont even know what a LAG is.
I have enough...and it is more profitable. Long story short we make big bux from incinerators. There will b significantly more of those during nights/weekends
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:32 PM   #13124
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For 1/2, time of day is pretty essential to an inflated winrate IMO.

I could grind out $10-20/hr during daytime hours pretty happily with not much variance (but if you get stuck in those morning games its a nightmare to get out). That being said, how much easier it is to stack somebody at 1 in the morning is insane.


Edit: I WAS ONE TRIPLE BARREL AWAY FROM A RECORD BREAKING MONTH FML. Couldn't pull the trigger on the 3rd street, he was double gutted and turned a pair, was def folding river.

Last edited by YGOchamp; 02-01-2016 at 10:52 PM.
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:13 PM   #13125
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have enough...and it is more profitable. Long story short we make big bux from incinerators. There will b significantly more of those during nights/weekends
Any estimate on the % difference in win rate?
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