Yes.

Wrong forum. Blog is that way.

DamSon.jpeg

The very cold months are when some players go broke

Poker Journal actually allows you to build custom filters easily with your stats.

And if you convert your sessions into .csv, it isn't hard to filter through Excel either.

Getting the stats out of the data is easy enough.

Acquiring a reasonable sample size is the tough part.

Then you've got those sessions where you start at noon and play until 4am ... which bin does that go into?

Oh you meant that.

Well, I am sure there aren't many sessions that go on for 16 hours in a large sample size.

Anyhow, I am sure squid has that information.

My guess is that the overall sample size would have to be *huge* in order to really have a good idea.

As RP says, PokerJournal has a filter where you can filter this stuff.

But lets say you logged 1,400 hours (a fair sample size most would say) evenly distributed over the 7 days of the week. But that would work out to 200 hours for each day of the week, and we all know 200 hours is pretty meaningless.

For example, my day of the week shows Thursday being 4.5x as profitable as Wednesday (165+ hours in each). My Tuesday is over 2x profitable as my Monday (250+ hours in each). But at these sample sizes, it's just noise, imo.

My Sunday of 928 hours shows me at almost my overall winrate, so getting to have a little more confidence (lol?) in those sample hours.

ETA: On top of all that, you'd have to be putting your evenly distributed hours in evenly over a particular time period to have more confidence. For example, I almost exclusively play Sunday (or Saturday) now, and my weeknight results were mostly put in years ago when the game/conditions were different than they are now.

GblindedbythenoiseG

I'll take the Angrist approach.

Weekdays: you know every player, WR is relatively fixed after several hundred hours.

Nights and weekends: random people walking in and many tables to choose.

If you can beat weekday game, you can probably do better on nights and weekends.

I've got about 4000 hours in my log, and I did some of the day-of week and room by room breakdown the last time I looked at it in detail, but not time of day. I'll take a look the next time I go through it, but I don't play during the day much.

Sometimes I wonder how hard it would be to collect logs from a couple dozen live players and compare/aggregate their statistics. Sure, everyone plays differently and may have a different individual winrate, but it might show some interesting trends/correlations.

Assume you can and you can even make these numbers up, what kind of interesting trends/correlations do you think might show up?

If it's worthwhile, I'll figure things out.

Well, you may have enough data to take a stab at day of week and time of day winrates with reasonable sample sizes for one.

I wonder how a player's winrate and standard deviation are linked, do players with higher SD also have higher WR's?

How much does the SD vary from player to player?

Are winrate and session length coupled? As in are longer sessions inherently worse or better than shorter sessions?

With a large overall sample you can also select smaller subsamples and show how many hours you'd need to collect to get a reasonable estimate of the overall winrate. Granted, that's possible to estimate from the underlying math on its own. But how well do we know what the SD is supposed to be for those calculations?


I haven't really formulated a plan for what I'd do with more data, but I'd be interested in crunching some numbers if there was interest in putting something together.

I do data analysis for a living and would love to take some of this on if we could get data from many players in csv format or something. I could aggregate the data and then take requests for questions/predictions/filters/visualizations/whatever.

Thankfully

After putting in proper filters, January cease to exist.

Hahaha.

If it can help your mental game, why not?

Might lose track of the lies you tell yourself.

I have enough...and it is more profitable. Long story short we make big bux from incinerators. There will b significantly more of those during nights/weekends

For 1/2, time of day is pretty essential to an inflated winrate IMO.

I could grind out $10-20/hr during daytime hours pretty happily with not much variance (but if you get stuck in those morning games its a nightmare to get out). That being said, how much easier it is to stack somebody at 1 in the morning is insane.


Edit: I WAS ONE TRIPLE BARREL AWAY FROM A RECORD BREAKING MONTH FML. Couldn't pull the trigger on the 3rd street, he was double gutted and turned a pair, was def folding river.

Any estimate on the % difference in win rate?

Tree.fiddy.percent.

Really depends on the casino as to what type of players will come in later and how the fatigue effects their actions. Very hard to quantify.

From personal experience I'd say its around double, although variance also goes up dramatically.

Some nice January graphs ITT, next few months should be good with tax return season coming up with generally more recreational players at the tables with the money they have gotten back.

I guess you already have your mind made up, but there are probably millions of 20 something year old dudes in this country that would kill to be making 100k and working in the finance industry.

Honest question, do you think poker will be sustainable enough in the next ten years for you to earn that kind of income (100k +)? Do you see the games being that good for an indefinite amount of time? How many fish can keep showing up to the casino and afford to be dumping thousands and thousands of dollars as we are living in a never ending recession? Where will all the expandable income come from?

Keep playing another few years and save 100% of your winnings plus 50%+ of your paycheck. Semi-retire early with enough passive income to cover your nut and play poker on the side with no pressure.

I don't know how long the good times will last but I intend to burn fast and bright, continue growing my bankroll, moving up limits, putting in time off the table and taking as much money as I can from this game in the shortest time possible.

I thought I could make it another year or so but at this point I can barely get through the days. This job is holding me back in too many other aspects of my life that it's time to cut the chord. I live for the hustle, the eat what you kill mentality and now I get to find out if I'm as good at this game as I think I have the potential to be.

I know what my "ceiling" is in the corporate world. I don't yet know what my ceiling in poker is, and pushing it off further is a massive opportunity cost in my opinion. Somebody once told me "get in poker to get out" and I think that is what I want to devote myself to for the next 2-3 years.

I've got the bankroll. I've got the life roll. I've got no major responsibilities and a fairly small monthly nut relative to others my age. My desk job makes me want to blow my brains out. Poker gets me excited each and every day. I love poker more now than I did 6 months ago, when I loved poker more than I did the 6 months prior to that, when I loved poker more than the 6 months prior to that.

Now's gotta be the time right?