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Old 01-29-2016, 03:24 PM   #13051
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
What I really wanted to know, is if live play doesn't provide enough data to make a given person's win-rate reliable, how can you analize live play? Are live results even necessary? How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.
Where is the fun in that? People post mostly to brag and then others challenge that brag. Rinse and repeat.

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
As for the BR question. If someone has say, $4k in an envelope to play poker with, do you recommend that person bring all $4k with to the club? If a given session results in the player busting out 3 or 4 times, and keeps buying in, won't the players at the table see him as a loser pouring good money after bad, and just target the loser with $3k left in his pocket?
A lot of these things you need to figure out on your own.

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
I see my BR personally, as I can afford to lose this, I don't want to, but I realize it is a possibility, and I play.
No one (except maybe few with issues) wants to lose money.

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
By being honest with myself, I look back on particular hands and ask if my result was being too tight, scared or whatever and try to learn from my mistake.
Analyzing poker is a lot more than just asking whether you are tight or not.

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
Also, by playing, I walk the walk of someone who plays tight due to BR issues. If and when I build myself up to consistent, (yet statistically irrelevant) wins, and put winnings away so that I don't worry so much about losing, I will have better insight as how an opponent might be thinking who may also be playing tight due to BR issues. To say a person shouldn't play isn't helpful in this forum. And I was half kidding about the wife and child getting their grubby hands on my hard earned loot!!!��
Blog is ---> way.

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
And to the AIPF example, yes if that 53/47 situation came up 1000 times, a player would expect to be up around $12k. But, knowing that live play is higher variance, and getting 1000 situations like that might take years, isn't it wiser, as a live game player, to just pick a better spot to get it AI? I'd rather not flip my stack on a 6% edge when I can flip my stack on a 40%+ edge.

Thanks for your comments.
If it takes years to run into 1000 53/47 situations, how long you do you think it will take to run into meaningful sample size of 70/30 or 80/20?

Point is, if you skip 10 53/47 situations and only had 1 70/30 situation in the session, you better hope you win that 70/30 or you're gonna be a pretty big loser that session.

And if you don't actually run into a 70/30 situation, you're going to be a moderate loser and hating life for wasting 4 - 5 hours.
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:38 PM   #13052
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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
I feel like I've been torched for asking a question. Maybe I phrased it wrong, and I apologize. I understand that live play inherently results in smaller sample sizes than a mathematical model could. And I understand that the smaller your sample size the less reliable the data. OK. I'm sorry. But since the win-rate post has 870 pages of posts, all in the LIVE LOW-STAKES forum, I thought I was asking the question in the correct place.

What I really wanted to know, is if live play doesn't provide enough data to make a given person's win-rate reliable, how can you analize live play? Are live results even necessary? How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.
The point is that while single samples aren't relevant in small sizes, we can still discuss how things are *actually* going, and maybe aggregate data from multiple players.

But sometimes it's just more of a dick measuring contest


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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
As for the BR question. If someone has say, $4k in an envelope to play poker with, do you recommend that person bring all $4k with to the club? If a given session results in the player busting out 3 or 4 times, and keeps buying in, won't the players at the table see him as a loser pouring good money after bad, and just target the loser with $3k left in his pocket?
Maybe.

Also possible you get mugged in the parking lot for flashing a wad around.

You should have a stop loss. While you might feel that you're just getting unlucky, it's often hard to see that objectively when you're $900 into a $1/2 game. I like to bring enough for a couple of buy ins more than my typical stop loss because I don't like putting all the money in my pocket on the table. But I also don't always re-buy after a single bust. If the table conditions are bad I just go home.


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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
I see my BR personally, as I can afford to lose this, I don't want to, but I realize it is a possibility, and I play. By being honest with myself, I look back on particular hands and ask if my result was being too tight, scared or whatever and try to learn from my mistake. Also, by playing, I walk the walk of someone who plays tight due to BR issues. If and when I build myself up to consistent, (yet statistically irrelevant) wins, and put winnings away so that I don't worry so much about losing, I will have better insight as how an opponent might be thinking who may also be playing tight due to BR issues. To say a person shouldn't play isn't helpful in this forum. And I was half kidding about the wife and child getting their grubby hands on my hard earned loot!!!😂
I think you should play anyway. Try hard to not think about your BR or your results, just your play. But then again, it's good for *me* if you play poorly.


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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
And to the AIPF example, yes if that 53/47 situation came up 1000 times, a player would expect to be up around $12k. But, knowing that live play is higher variance, and getting 1000 situations like that might take years, isn't it wiser, as a live game player, to just pick a better spot to get it AI? I'd rather not flip my stack on a 6% edge when I can flip my stack on a 40%+ edge.

Thanks for your comments.
Depends on your bankroll and mindset. If losing a couple of those busts you and tilts you, don't.

On the other hand, being viewed as a player that "gives action" by getting into spots like that will usually help you get more action yourself with your big hands. If you often pass on these spots you may be viewed as a nit. You can exploit both images if you know what you're doing, but generally the action side is more profitable.
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:39 PM   #13053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
I feel like I've been torched for asking a question. Maybe I phrased it wrong, and I apologize. I understand that live play inherently results in smaller sample sizes than a mathematical model could. And I understand that the smaller your sample size the less reliable the data. OK. I'm sorry. But since the win-rate post has 870 pages of posts, all in the LIVE LOW-STAKES forum, I thought I was asking the question in the correct place.
You came in here 5 posts deep and basically stated that 75 hours should be statistically significant. I'm not sure what parts of the internet you normally read, but pretty much any forum would flame you for saying something that absurd
Quote:
What I really wanted to know, is if live play doesn't provide enough data to make a given person's win-rate reliable, how can you analize live play? Are live results even necessary? How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.
the standard is 10k hands online starts to give you an idea. 20 hands/hour average * 500 hours = 10k hands live

Quote:
As for the BR question. If someone has say, $4k in an envelope to play poker with, do you recommend that person bring all $4k with to the club? If a given session results in the player busting out 3 or 4 times, and keeps buying in, won't the players at the table see him as a loser pouring good money after bad, and just target the loser with $3k left in his pocket?
I've seen people play 1/2 with 5k in their pockets. Really just a personal preference. Personally, I have a stop loss. If I hit -800 at 1/2, I'm done for the night.
Quote:
I see my BR personally, as I can afford to lose this, I don't want to, but I realize it is a possibility, and I play. By being honest with myself, I look back on particular hands and ask if my result was being too tight, scared or whatever and try to learn from my mistake. Also, by playing, I walk the walk of someone who plays tight due to BR issues. If and when I build myself up to consistent, (yet statistically irrelevant) wins, and put winnings away so that I don't worry so much about losing, I will have better insight as how an opponent might be thinking who may also be playing tight due to BR issues. To say a person shouldn't play isn't helpful in this forum. And I was half kidding about the wife and child getting their grubby hands on my hard earned loot!!!😂
Again, this is a personal thing you have to figure out. Play and don't exploit edges or sit out and save so you can exploit edges later. A big problem you'll find is that the really good posters on here, the ones you want to learn from, they all have good BRM so they exploit those edges. If you post a hand and don't feel comfortable making the plays they suggest, you're not really going to grow as a player

Quote:
And to the AIPF example, yes if that 53/47 situation came up 1000 times, a player would expect to be up around $12k. But, knowing that live play is higher variance, and getting 1000 situations like that might take years, isn't it wiser, as a live game player, to just pick a better spot to get it AI? I'd rather not flip my stack on a 6% edge when I can flip my stack on a 40%+ edge.
Variance isn't higher in live play, variance is variance. It will just take you longer to realize the true statistical outcome in live play then online.

You can avoid the flip if you want. As your bankroll grows and you play better opponents, small edges, like 6%, are the chasms that separate the ok players from the crushers.

If you can get it in with a 40% edge on any normal occurrence, more power too you. People are not just gonna throw their money at you being a 30/70 dog, especially once you move up stakes to where more players are better
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:58 PM   #13054
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^% is a huge edge. Casinos make billions off of much smaller edges. The trick is, they are bankrolled enough to be a statistical universe.

It's best by far to take the 6% edges and the 40% edges. Guess which one comes along more often and thus has a greater overall effect on your winrate?
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Old 01-29-2016, 04:05 PM   #13055
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post

And if you don't actually run into a 70/30 situation, you're going to be a moderate loser and hating life for wasting 4 - 5 hours.
If 4-5 hours at the casino without winning or losing much is a waste, you need to step up your hostess/waitress game
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Old 01-29-2016, 04:12 PM   #13056
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I have no problem, but everyone else seems to find not winning few big pots per session some sort of injustice.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:34 PM   #13057
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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
I feel like I've been torched for asking a question. Maybe I phrased it wrong, and I apologize. I understand that live play inherently results in smaller sample sizes than a mathematical model could. And I understand that the smaller your sample size the less reliable the data. OK. I'm sorry. But since the win-rate post has 870 pages of posts, all in the LIVE LOW-STAKES forum, I thought I was asking the question in the correct place.

What I really wanted to know, is if live play doesn't provide enough data to make a given person's win-rate reliable, how can you analize live play? Are live results even necessary? How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.
Live results do provide enough data, it just takes a while to get that data. 1000 hours is not an unrealistic amount of time to put in. Just use the variance calculator I posted. It will give you your confidence intervals. Math is math. It doesn't change just because getting the desired result is really hard.

I'm making $150/hour over the last 75 hours. There is zero chance that my hourly is much above $50 (even that is unlikely). If I can run $100/hour above EV, you can too. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out. You're not getting torched for your question, you're getting torched for saying that 75 hours is a decent sample size.
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Old 01-29-2016, 06:19 PM   #13058
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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Of course, but the normal SDs are known (60-100) so we have an idea of what is needed. Every sample size question can be answered with this: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
Live SD should average higher.

Or maybe I'm doing something wrong to get a 200BB/100 SD
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Old 01-29-2016, 06:37 PM   #13059
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Live SD should average higher.

Or maybe I'm doing something wrong to get a 200BB/100 SD
60-100/hour not 100 hands. Just use hours instead of hands. As long as you use the same denominators, the math is the same.
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Old 01-29-2016, 06:45 PM   #13060
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Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
I think I am done for month of January....so I can post results. Brag post for sure. Since I last posted 15 days ago or so, I've been continuing to crush 2/5 live here in Jax, FL.

Hours Played: 157 hours, 47 minutes
Profit/Loss: +$8,080.00
Cashed Sessions: 16/21

2/5: $ 6,564.00 profit
5/10: $1,516.00 profit (Only 1 session, 6 hours played till game broke. Was a very good game though)

Was a great month boys!
Nice month. Do you play full-time?
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Old 01-29-2016, 06:57 PM   #13061
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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post

How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.

Did you read page 1 post #1 ?
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Old 01-29-2016, 07:08 PM   #13062
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I DIDN'T MEAN TO POST THAT 75hr was a decent sample size

I feel like pushing edges is a discussion for other posts. But a casino pushing a 4% edge is different. They have 1000+ gaming tables at which to push that edge. I have 1 gaming table.

Thank you for everyone's comments.
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Old 01-29-2016, 07:27 PM   #13063
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Idea is the same though...
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Old 01-30-2016, 12:57 AM   #13064
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Hey Rockville, good luck with finding the best way to run up a bankroll.

Imo, 1/2 anywhere in the country should be very beatable provided they have reasonable rake. For me, knowing that I have the skills to beat 1/2, even if I didn't know for how much, allowed me to just bite the bullet and play whenever I can. I've never found having only $800-$1000 in my name a deterrent to sitting down and playing and in my college days, sometimes, that's really all I had. But also, I've never found myself ghetto arse broke and unable to come up with $1k just by working a job more hours that I'm out of the game for too long, if you live in the U.S. or any other affluent country, you shouldn't have a problem.
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Old 01-30-2016, 01:08 AM   #13065
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I'm outside the card room smokin (and drinkin). I found a dollar on the ground. Should this be counted in my winnings?
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Old 01-30-2016, 01:20 AM   #13066
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Yes.
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Old 01-30-2016, 01:20 AM   #13067
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Hey Rockville, good luck with finding the best way to run up a bankroll.



Imo, 1/2 anywhere in the country should be very beatable provided they have reasonable rake. For me, knowing that I have the skills to beat 1/2, even if I didn't know for how much, allowed me to just bite the bullet and play whenever I can. I've never found having only $800-$1000 in my name a deterrent to sitting down and playing and in my college days, sometimes, that's really all I had. But also, I've never found myself ghetto arse broke and unable to come up with $1k just by working a job more hours that I'm out of the game for too long, if you live in the U.S. or any other affluent country, you shouldn't have a problem.

"I believe I can fly, therefore I can."
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Old 01-30-2016, 02:55 AM   #13068
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Yes.

Cool... Wanna see my giraffe?
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Old 01-30-2016, 02:58 AM   #13069
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I don't swing that way.
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Old 01-30-2016, 06:11 AM   #13070
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60-100/hour not 100 hands. Just use hours instead of hands. As long as you use the same denominators, the math is the same.

You linked to a tool which uses BB/100, so naturally I assumed that's the unit you were using. Also, the tool suggests that a standard SD for FR NLHE is 60-80 BB/100, which is too small for live players. I wanted to make sure you weren't suggesting a similar range.

I prefer converting to the units the tool uses. Assuming 25 hands/h you simply *4 win-rate and *2 SD. If anyone follows your advice they should just make sure they get the sample size right. It should be h*100 for 'h' hours. This is why I prefer using BB/100. Then all the units are "natural" even if BB/h is more applicable to live than BB/100.
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Old 01-30-2016, 10:23 AM   #13071
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Nice month. Do you play full-time?
No. Very tempted to though. I have a full time job in sales where I work ~20-25 hours a week.

I'm rolled for 2/5 ... want to try it so bad
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Old 01-30-2016, 11:22 AM   #13072
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No. Very tempted to though. I have a full time job in sales where I work ~20-25 hours a week.

I'm rolled for 2/5 ... want to try it so bad
????????
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Old 01-30-2016, 12:17 PM   #13073
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Basically he played hooky a lot.
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Old 01-30-2016, 12:34 PM   #13074
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lol scrubs who run bad itt

*doom switch*

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uu
Doom switch is 100% real. I didn't believe it, until I faced it.

That fateful day I was all pumped up. Worked out, ****ed hard, ate a big meal, and drove right over to the cas... And then proceeded to get anally fisted by variance. Regression to the mean sucks balls.

Word to the wise, keep it humble. I learned the hard way lol.
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Old 01-30-2016, 12:56 PM   #13075
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You learned the hardball way.

Or just be really good, then it's like whatever.
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