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Old 01-28-2016, 09:43 PM   #13026
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Live sample sizes are generally too small to be statistically relevant. 100 or 200 hours is noise. 500-1000 is starting to get close to something meaningful, but then any *larger* sample sizes will takes so long to collect that the underlying conditions will have changed and the data shouldn't be lumped together anyway. It's just math.

I've looked at my full 4000 hours on a 100 hour window basis and the results are all over the place. (Confirming what the math already tells us.)

I do agree with you about just playing if you've got $500 handy. If it works out it works out, if you go bust you have to hit the books and wait a while to get back in the game. The strict BR requirements are for when you don't have any way to replenish if you go bust.
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Old 01-28-2016, 09:45 PM   #13027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For a second I thought I wrote that.
I'm much more gentle and loving
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Old 01-28-2016, 09:46 PM   #13028
Richard Parker
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

BR requirement is not a requirement, but rather a suggestion.

It's not like a table minimum requirement you need in order to sit down.
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Old 01-28-2016, 10:13 PM   #13029
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

v well put
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Old 01-28-2016, 10:41 PM   #13030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

isn't all this talk about #hours needed for WR to be relevant.. isn't it all arbitrary? don't we need a standard deviation along with the observed WR and the volume/time in order to come up with a confidence interval?

i see all these posts comparing live to online as far as "relevant" number of hands.. ("dude.. 500 hours is only 15,000 hands.. that's a slow week for online, brah").. but WR:STD is a lot higher for live, isnt' it? and so, the volume to be "relevant" will be much less for live than online, right?
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Old 01-28-2016, 10:52 PM   #13031
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That's true, and I think that bip! has posted some estimates about it.

I think both WR *and* SD should be higher live, so I don't think it collapses as much as you think.

I can tell from my own data that 100 hours is garbage and 500 hours shows what look like the start of meaningful trends.
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Old 01-28-2016, 11:25 PM   #13032
Richard Parker
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Majority of posters in this threads are probably one bad swing away from deleting records and quit tracking them.

So how statistical relevant are these records anyway?
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:15 AM   #13033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you can't wait till you have "4k in a stuffed envelope" before you buy-in to poker as a legitmate investment, then in all honestly you probably shouldn't be playing.

Your going to have to play way too tight only having 2-3 bullets in any given month and won't be able to really learn anything because you won't be able to play correctly. imo you should just save that money and store it for a few months until you have at least $1500 or so saved -- but even at that point its hard to play correct poker if the money matters too much to you.
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:23 AM   #13034
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Majority of posters in this threads are probably one bad swing away from deleting records and quit tracking them.

So how statistical relevant are these records anyway?
Not very
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:24 AM   #13035
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
If you can't wait till you have "4k in a stuffed envelope" before you buy-in to poker as a legitmate investment, then in all honestly you probably shouldn't be playing.

Your going to have to play way too tight only having 2-3 bullets in any given month and won't be able to really learn anything because you won't be able to play correctly. imo you should just save that money and store it for a few months until you have at least $1500 or so saved -- but even at that point its hard to play correct poker if the money matters too much to you.
Biggest assumption is "investment."
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:31 AM   #13036
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, I took his post as implying he was trying to take the game seriously, hence why he's here in the first place. If he wanted to continue playing recreationally then by all means go fire off a few bullets with your spare money, just don't expect much absent of a sick heater.
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:49 AM   #13037
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's one of those catch-22's.

If you're really a winning poker player, you wouldn't ask whether BRM is necessary. For BRM to matter, you probably need to be a winning player first.
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:55 AM   #13038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
Hi. I'm relatively new to 2+2 (which if you say it fast is trip twos😂&#128514

Anyway, I've played poker all my life, but am finally trying to get organized. I wrote my own little poker session tracker, and will start to honestly keep records. Right now, even though I'm pretty certain I'm up at my local poker club, I can only remember my last 3 visits. So I'm 15hr in, with one win of about $350 and 2 losing sessions, where I lost 3 total buy-in. I'm down $40 in 15hr of play.

Yay me.

I have two questions, and they may have been answered, and I'm sorry if they have, but I can't read 896 pages of posts. So...
1. Regarding live play sample size in relation to on-line play. I think its wrong to say someone's 75hr of live play over 2months is too small a sample size because an on-line player could have 10x the number of hands played over the same timeframe. Everyone who is playing live has the same conatraints; one table, fewer hours, have to go somewhere to play. Isn't it more like, your live play is this, and your on-line play is something else? I just think its unfair to say live play sample sizes are too small to be statsically relevant.

2. If $1/2 nl is the smallest live play game outside your buddy's garage, how does bankroll matter? If you have one or two buy-ins, and want to play, you go play. I'm dealing with this now. I have the family and mortgage and job. I can't wait till I have an envelope stuffed with $4k to go play. Obviously, I run into finding myself playing tight because i only have $300 to toss around, but if I waited until I had more (the wife or child would spend it...let this be a lesson to all of you...)I would miss out on the experience of playing and getting better. I keep myself at this limit, and will not play higher or deeper until I do get that envelope stuffed with cash. I'm certain i will if I keep reading the posts here.

Thanks for reading and sharing your game theory. 👍👍👍
1. 75 hours is absolutely nothing, period. It's mathematical fact.

2. If you're playing a certain way (sub-optimally) because of your BR situation you're not really going to get better anyway. Also, your family would spend the money if you had more than $300 but they wouldn't touch an envelope stuffed with $4k??

My suggestion is to play when you can and learn to live with having to go home in 20 minutes if you run bad and bust. Just focus on making profitable decisions. And top up to 100bb every time you fall below. If you are out of money to top up, take what you have left and save it for next time.
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Old 01-29-2016, 02:04 AM   #13039
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm a live 5/10 NL reg, my hourly is ~$100/hr @ live game that I play , 40 hrs a week.

I am wondering if it's possible to make $100/hr playing on Bovada ?

Is there anyone making 100+/hr @ Bovada ? If so, what stakes are u playing to achieve that rate?
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:04 AM   #13040
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No it's not.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:52 AM   #13041
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Probably a better question for one of the online fora, or even the Bovada thread in Internet poker.

Most of us here are live only, or only dabble in online. A few are 50/50ish, but of those most are playing on multiple sites or on Stars from outside the US, as far as I know.
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Old 01-29-2016, 08:49 AM   #13042
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
1. Regarding live play sample size in relation to on-line play. I think its wrong to say someone's 75hr of live play over 2months is too small a sample size because an on-line player could have 10x the number of hands played over the same timeframe. Everyone who is playing live has the same conatraints; one table, fewer hours, have to go somewhere to play. Isn't it more like, your live play is this, and your on-line play is something else? I just think its unfair to say live play sample sizes are too small to be statsically relevant.
You can say all of this. You'd be wrong, but you can say it. I'm just gonna leave this right here. I suggest you purchase either this or something like this to start to understand what it's kinda obvious that you have no idea about (and don't take that as an insult, I'd say probably < 40% of people actually have an understanding of statistics, so you're not bulg any means alone)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9 View Post
2. If $1/2 nl is the smallest live play game outside your buddy's garage, how does bankroll matter? If you have one or two buy-ins, and want to play, you go play. I'm dealing with this now. I have the family and mortgage and job. I can't wait till I have an envelope stuffed with $4k to go play. Obviously, I run into finding myself playing tight because i only have $300 to toss around, but if I waited until I had more (the wife or child would spend it...let this be a lesson to all of you...)I would miss out on the experience of playing and getting better. I keep myself at this limit, and will not play higher or deeper until I do get that envelope stuffed with cash. I'm certain i will if I keep reading the posts here.
You answered your own question!

Everything we do in life is evaluating edges and estimating risk, whether it is something as mundane as "can I go to the grocery store before doing blah blah blah but I only have X hours to do it all" or something less mundane like playing poker. The less risk involved, the less difficult the decision is to make. If you can't get to the grocery store today, tomorrow it is still there, extremely minimal risk, extremely easy decision.

As you pointed out you play tighter with a small amount of money, probably because you don't want to lose it because you want to play more. But then imagine if you had 4K (+ the ability to make it grow). Then those small edges that you see people continually talk about, we can capitalize on them. A spot like QQ vs AKs AIPF is a 53/47 edge. If you only have 300 and you lose, you're out. If you have a bankroll that can hand it, that situation actually "earns" you $12 every time ($200 BI at 1/2) it happens. The problem is you don't get $12 every time and get to walk away up $12. If you run that scenario over a statistically significant sample, X times, you will win 53% of them and lose 47% and it will mathematically work out that you are positive cash X*$12, so if X were 1,000 and that was statistically significant (which it's not, see my answer to question 1), you would be up $12,000. This is why cash games are also considered "1 long session"
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Old 01-29-2016, 09:14 AM   #13043
kb5zcr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mreps View Post

Did you check out my spread sheet?
Mreps,
I tried to get your spreadsheet on Google docs but it said you have to approve shareing.
Can you just send me a copy or am I missing somehing?

I would like to give it a try.

Thanks
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:08 PM   #13044
mikko
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Hardball47 View Post
Holy ****ing ****.

Ever since I posted here about my hot streak, I haven't had a single winning session.

Mother****ing live doomswitched/jinxed.
Let me try this then.

January 1/2
6 sessions, 54 hrs
1 win

$-1486
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:11 PM   #13045
kekeeke
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lol scrubs who run bad itt

*doom switch*

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uu
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:16 PM   #13046
t_roy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
That's true, and I think that bip! has posted some estimates about it.

I think both WR *and* SD should be higher live, so I don't think it collapses as much as you think.

I can tell from my own data that 100 hours is garbage and 500 hours shows what look like the start of meaningful trends.
Of course, but the normal SDs are known (60-100) so we have an idea of what is needed. Every sample size question can be answered with this: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
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Old 01-29-2016, 02:17 PM   #13047
mreps
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kb5zcr View Post
Mreps,
I tried to get your spreadsheet on Google docs but it said you have to approve shareing.
Can you just send me a copy or am I missing somehing?

I would like to give it a try.

Thanks
That link was for an older version. Ill pm you a the new link.
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Old 01-29-2016, 02:28 PM   #13048
FishtermerService
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think I am done for month of January....so I can post results. Brag post for sure. Since I last posted 15 days ago or so, I've been continuing to crush 2/5 live here in Jax, FL.

Hours Played: 157 hours, 47 minutes
Profit/Loss: +$8,080.00
Cashed Sessions: 16/21

2/5: $ 6,564.00 profit
5/10: $1,516.00 profit (Only 1 session, 6 hours played till game broke. Was a very good game though)

Was a great month boys!
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Old 01-29-2016, 02:37 PM   #13049
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good job, nice volume.
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Old 01-29-2016, 03:08 PM   #13050
rockville9
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I feel like I've been torched for asking a question. Maybe I phrased it wrong, and I apologize. I understand that live play inherently results in smaller sample sizes than a mathematical model could. And I understand that the smaller your sample size the less reliable the data. OK. I'm sorry. But since the win-rate post has 870 pages of posts, all in the LIVE LOW-STAKES forum, I thought I was asking the question in the correct place.

What I really wanted to know, is if live play doesn't provide enough data to make a given person's win-rate reliable, how can you analize live play? Are live results even necessary? How did this forum get to be 870pg? Someone should have posted right away that live results are in-accurate, saved everyone a lot of time and moved on.

As for the BR question. If someone has say, $4k in an envelope to play poker with, do you recommend that person bring all $4k with to the club? If a given session results in the player busting out 3 or 4 times, and keeps buying in, won't the players at the table see him as a loser pouring good money after bad, and just target the loser with $3k left in his pocket?

I see my BR personally, as I can afford to lose this, I don't want to, but I realize it is a possibility, and I play. By being honest with myself, I look back on particular hands and ask if my result was being too tight, scared or whatever and try to learn from my mistake. Also, by playing, I walk the walk of someone who plays tight due to BR issues. If and when I build myself up to consistent, (yet statistically irrelevant) wins, and put winnings away so that I don't worry so much about losing, I will have better insight as how an opponent might be thinking who may also be playing tight due to BR issues. To say a person shouldn't play isn't helpful in this forum. And I was half kidding about the wife and child getting their grubby hands on my hard earned loot!!!😂

And to the AIPF example, yes if that 53/47 situation came up 1000 times, a player would expect to be up around $12k. But, knowing that live play is higher variance, and getting 1000 situations like that might take years, isn't it wiser, as a live game player, to just pick a better spot to get it AI? I'd rather not flip my stack on a 6% edge when I can flip my stack on a 40%+ edge.

Thanks for your comments.
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