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Old 01-23-2016, 02:51 AM   #12951
ZuneIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thanks Mike! However, trust me! 205 hours is a 'drop in the bucket.' And to those wanting to swing their dicks with their win rates: I only track mine for my own measurement of my improvement. However crude a measurement it may be, it's the only way I know how to measure it with numbers. I can say, after reviewing hands after a session, that I didn't make nearly the mistakes I use to in the past. I can say I played X# of hands much better than in the past - however, it still boils down to: how does that compute to the improvement in my bottom line.
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Well, if you review your hands and realize you didnt make nearly the mistakes you made in the past then you've gotten better, right?
I look at eliminating leaks in my game as the equivalent of improving my efficient in a job. Say I have a sales job that pays primarily commission. If I eliminate the 15-20 minutes when I get to work talkin' with co-workers & gettin' warmed up. If I stop spending 10-15 minutes prior to lunch figuring out where we are all going & if I stop slowing down 10-15 minutes prior to quittin' time, I'm not improving my skill at sales. I'm improving my efficiency.
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Old 01-23-2016, 03:12 AM   #12952
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For all ya'll that play 1-2, what is a proper BR iyo?
There are websites that can give you an estimate based upon your win rate & standard deviation. I go by being able to lose 12 $250 all-ins pre in a row in a so called 'coin-flip' situation [AK vs. QQ] & still have 1/2 my bankroll. So, $6000.00 to start for 1/2NL & I never concern myself with the fact that the chips are money.

However, I don't need to meet a monthly nut, so there is no pressure. I thought I was saving as much of my winnings as possible for a new, used car. However, my wife informed me that my thinking is flawed - it's being saved for home improvements this summer. She also thinks that a deck in the backyard & a smoker & fancy grill will allow me the opportunity to spend time learning how to grill like Bobby Flay. Then there's the kitchen & bathroom, that for some reason - she thinks should be upgraded! Women. They'll let ya' do what you want - but there's a price.
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:06 AM   #12953
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What do you define 'heater' as?



What if you notice that the red deck has flopped two 7s the last 4 times it has been used. If you are dealt, say 97o UTG the 5th time it's used, as you going to play it, since the DeckMate is on a 'heater' of dealin' out two 7s on the flop with that deck?

I would slap myself across the face if I ever find myself asking those questions.
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:35 AM   #12954
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Well, I think 'heaters' are ridiculous. Always have. I've only believed in variance. "Heaters" to me, are like guys saying "Sevens are runnin' hot tonight." Or, getting a seat change button so that when seat 7 leaves [who is runnin' good] they can grab his seat. Or, being told by someone you know who sees you on a table he played at the last 2 days, tells you: "You're at a good table. Try & get seat 9. I won a lot in that seat the last two days & as you can see, the guy in seat 9 is doing good today."

If you can be on a "heater" and get good cards that hit flops, then why can't a specific seat at a table run good? Why can't a specific deck run hot flopping a specific rank a high % of the time? Ever see a deck run hot at flopping monotone over 10 flops when it's only suppose to happen 5% of the time?

I won't go into why I was tracking this, however I once went 48 times in a row without flopping a set of 6s. Then when I did, my V caught a 4th card to work with 1 of his for a str8. It wasn't until the 59th time of being dealt 66 that I won a really nice pot.

After about 3-5 weeks of running so so with my 66, I went on a heater and flopped several sets making a nice amount of money. Was it really a heater, or just variance? I think a more accurate term would be "High +Ev Variance."

"All of my good streaks & all of my bad streaks of every length & depth have had one thing in common. They did not exist in your mind. They only existed in my mind. And this is true for everyone's winning & losing streaks. None of them actually exist. They are all mental fabrication, like past & future. Everything that ever happens happens in the present tense. But how can you have a "streak" in the present tense? You can't. And therefore, if you are in the present tense, which, in fact, at this time you are, then at this moment there is no streak in your life. There is no inherent existence to streaks. The streak is there when you think about it, and when you stop thinking about, it goes away. It blossoms and withers, all in your mind. And when your mind invents a streak, you believe it exists, because you believe what your mind tells you. But the truth is there is only the hand you are playing." - Tommy Angelo
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Old 01-23-2016, 06:21 AM   #12955
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"Heater" can also just mean that you have been on the positive side of variance. I am sure that is how it was used in the post you are referencing. It doesn't necessarily imply that future events have different odds, just that past events worked out favorably.
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Old 01-23-2016, 06:40 AM   #12956
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I don't keep track of win rates personally, only whether or not more money comes in than goes out.

Since the start of the new year, I've played 21/23 days and have won 19/21 days for a minimum of $200 at 1/2. At least twice a week for three weeks now I've had cash outs for $1k+. If this keeps up, I'll be on my way to winning the WSOP ME 2016.

For me, "heater" is putting it lightly. I'm running God mode cheat codes right now - wallhacks, aimbots, maphack, the works. Just tonight I flopped a set of fives, went running queens for fives full. Two other guys had the case queens paid off all-in bets OTR. All in the first hour of playing.

Printing money.

Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris.
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Old 01-23-2016, 06:51 AM   #12957
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I don't keep track of win rates personally, only whether or not more money comes in than goes out.

Since the start of the new year, I've played 21/23 days and have won 19/21 days for a minimum of $200 at 1/2. At least twice a week for three weeks now I've had cash outs for $1k+. If this keeps up, I'll be on my way to winning the WSOP ME 2016.

For me, "heater" is putting it lightly. I'm running God mode cheat codes right now - wallhacks, aimbots, maphack, the works. Just tonight I flopped a set of fives, went running queens for fives full. Two other guys had the case queens paid off all-in bets OTR. All in the first hour of playing.

Printing money.

Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris.
Ha. running good is such a nice feeling indeed, enjoy it
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Old 01-23-2016, 06:56 AM   #12958
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I like to 'freeroll' shottake.

Play your usual 1-2 game till you have a really good night, and have made enough for 1.5-2 buyins at the higher stakes, and you're not too burnt out, and you can find a promising 2-5 table to get into.

Had one of my best nights buying into a 1-2 game for $60, hitting a holiday high hand for $550, and moving to a 2-5 table with a $350 buyin. Walked away 4 hours later with approx. $1800 (merry xmas).
This idea seems somewhat common. Someone even went so far as to say this is how all the pros shot-take, which is laughable.

This is not a good way to shot-take. The only reason it feels like a good idea is because when you lose the money you can rationalize it by saying you only lost a 1-2 BI for the day. In reality you've already won some $x and that's part of your bankroll. How much you already won in a day should have no influence on whether or not you take a shot.

There's nothing wrong at all with a rec player doing this for whatever reason, but it's not good bankroll management in general and shouldn't be advised.
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Old 01-23-2016, 07:07 AM   #12959
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@ Hardball - That's a sweet run!! I count 6 days of 1k+ = 6k minimum. 13 days of $200+ = 2.6k minimum. Total of 8.6k. Now add 15%, since we went with the minimum = 9.89k & let's round it down to 9.8k.

Now 21 days playing, what, 7 hours at the table? That's 147 hours. Let's round that up to 160 hours.

9.8k/160 hours = $61.25 per hour. If I guessed close to the actual, it's 3x more than a $20 per hour 'crusher!' I'm willing to bet on the 'over.'

I would be happy going for 150 hours averaging $40 per hour! Nicely done sir!!!

Too bad you're a veteran and not a newbie! Then you would have ended your post with "Is this sustainable?" instead of "Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris" and we all could have had a really good - !!
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Old 01-23-2016, 07:25 AM   #12960
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@ Hardball - That's a sweet run!! I count 6 days of 1k+ = 6k minimum. 13 days of $200+ = 2.6k minimum. Total of 8.6k. Now add 15%, since we went with the minimum = 9.89k & let's round it down to 9.8k.

Now 21 days playing, what, 7 hours at the table? That's 147 hours. Let's round that up to 160 hours.

9.8k/160 hours = $61.25 per hour. If I guessed close to the actual, it's 3x more than a $20 per hour 'crusher!' I'm willing to bet on the 'over.'

I would be happy going for 150 hours averaging $40 per hour! Nicely done sir!!!

Too bad you're a veteran and not a newbie! Then you would have ended your post with "Is this sustainable?" instead of "Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris" and we all could have had a really good - !!
Thanks, but I try not to think about it in terms of an "hourly." That feels too much like a damn job, and I'd hate to think of poker as work. I consider it a profitable hobby.
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Old 01-23-2016, 07:27 AM   #12961
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Originally Posted by Hardball47 View Post
I don't keep track of win rates personally, only whether or not more money comes in than goes out.

Since the start of the new year, I've played 21/23 days and have won 19/21 days for a minimum of $200 at 1/2. At least twice a week for three weeks now I've had cash outs for $1k+. If this keeps up, I'll be on my way to winning the WSOP ME 2016.

For me, "heater" is putting it lightly. I'm running God mode cheat codes right now - wallhacks, aimbots, maphack, the works. Just tonight I flopped a set of fives, went running queens for fives full. Two other guys had the case queens paid off all-in bets OTR. All in the first hour of playing.

Printing money.

Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris.
Oh it will. Unfortunately. And when it does, you will lay awake in bed thinking, 'Why do I play this ****ing game? Will I ever win again?'

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
This idea seems somewhat common. Someone even went so far as to say this is how all the pros shot-take, which is laughable.

This is not a good way to shot-take. The only reason it feels like a good idea is because when you lose the money you can rationalize it by saying you only lost a 1-2 BI for the day. In reality you've already won some $x and that's part of your bankroll. How much you already won in a day should have no influence on whether or not you take a shot.

There's nothing wrong at all with a rec player doing this for whatever reason, but it's not good bankroll management in general and shouldn't be advised.
Disagree. If you have a reasonable bankroll, I see no reason why taking profits once in a while to shot take in a good looking lineup would be bad.

Don't use your initial buyin. Just use your profit.
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Old 01-23-2016, 07:35 AM   #12962
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Oh it will. Unfortunately. And when it does, you will lay awake in bed thinking, 'Why do I play this ****ing game? Will I ever win again?'
It is, however, entirely within the realm of possibility that I may never, ever, until my last waking breath, be on the negative side of variance.

Right?
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Old 01-23-2016, 07:47 AM   #12963
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It is, however, entirely within the realm of possibility that I may never, ever, until my last waking breath, be on the negative side of variance.

Right?
I hope so for you.
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Old 01-23-2016, 08:10 AM   #12964
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Ok then...how about 'earning your way' into a bigger game.
Just like how all the NFL athletes approach football and say "its 90% mental and 10% physical", we as winning poker players need the same mindsets. Of course to the casual observer the "10% physical" part seems ridiculous since these are world class athletes, but they are already good and know the different lies in their minds.

I think the same "its 90% mental and 10% skill/strategy" applies to poker.

Even a GREAT player that tilts at the first sign of adversity, over gambles his bankroll and/or is too nitty WILL fail.
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Old 01-23-2016, 08:17 AM   #12965
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I took some shots at 5/T(15 hours worth) recently that haven't gone well(-$1800). The losses there have made me break even over 120 hours of total play(mostly 1/2+2/5)
It has hurt motivation that I have put in so much time and haven't trended up, even if it is normal variance, the human feeling of "loss" can be demotivating.
Variance is crazy, playing just 1/2(no cap buyin)+2/5. Since the end of this downswing and over the next 110 hours, I have gone 19-2 win/loss sessions and on a 5 digit heater.

Never under estimate a small chunk of hours and try to draw conclusions.
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Old 01-23-2016, 11:25 AM   #12966
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mfw when I finally open this thread again after a few days:

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Old 01-23-2016, 12:46 PM   #12967
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Well, I think 'heaters' are ridiculous. Always have. I've only believed in variance. "Heaters" to me, are like guys saying "Sevens are runnin' hot tonight." Or, getting a seat change button so that when seat 7 leaves [who is runnin' good] they can grab his seat. Or, being told by someone you know who sees you on a table he played at the last 2 days, tells you: "You're at a good table. Try & get seat 9. I won a lot in that seat the last two days & as you can see, the guy in seat 9 is doing good today."

If you can be on a "heater" and get good cards that hit flops, then why can't a specific seat at a table run good? Why can't a specific deck run hot flopping a specific rank a high % of the time? Ever see a deck run hot at flopping monotone over 10 flops when it's only suppose to happen 5% of the time?

I won't go into why I was tracking this, however I once went 48 times in a row without flopping a set of 6s. Then when I did, my V caught a 4th card to work with 1 of his for a str8. It wasn't until the 59th time of being dealt 66 that I won a really nice pot.

After about 3-5 weeks of running so so with my 66, I went on a heater and flopped several sets making a nice amount of money. Was it really a heater, or just variance? I think a more accurate term would be "High +Ev Variance."

"All of my good streaks & all of my bad streaks of every length & depth have had one thing in common. They did not exist in your mind. They only existed in my mind. And this is true for everyone's winning & losing streaks. None of them actually exist. They are all mental fabrication, like past & future. Everything that ever happens happens in the present tense. But how can you have a "streak" in the present tense? You can't. And therefore, if you are in the present tense, which, in fact, at this time you are, then at this moment there is no streak in your life. There is no inherent existence to streaks. The streak is there when you think about it, and when you stop thinking about, it goes away. It blossoms and withers, all in your mind. And when your mind invents a streak, you believe it exists, because you believe what your mind tells you. But the truth is there is only the hand you are playing." - Tommy Angelo
wow. just wow. so much that is just wrong with this

heater = + variance
cooler = - variance

its not rocket science.

if your winrate over a large sample is X and in a session(s) you win X+Ybb/hr, that was a heater. if you lose X-Ybb/hr, that was a cooler session(s). it's the same as if you get KK against AA in the SB and BB, because the chances of that happening are 0.48% - to put it in real world numbers - assume you're heads up - for every time you get KK, it will take getting it ~200 times for the other person to have AA. so if you have KK you can be reasonable certain V doesnt have AA. if they do, it's a cooler. it's - variance.

the other stuff you mentioned is a gablers fallicy. it's why roulette wheels have the boards that show the previously hit numbers - so morons walk up and think "oh, black has hit 15 times in a row, red is due..." but in reality red has the same % chance of hitting as black does, the same % chance it had the last 15 times.

i suggest you read this link and understand it and ask questions if you don't, because from what you posted (especially about the set of 6's), you seem to not get it...
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Old 01-23-2016, 01:24 PM   #12968
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@ johnny_on_the_spot: Sorry Johnny! You were the one who didn't get it!

Everyone knows what a heater & a cooler is. I went into a facetiously semi-long diatribe, with a dual purpose. Thus, the emoticon.

One was to put force this ridiculous notion that 'heater' & 'cooler' should be replaced with a more accurate term, which I pegged as 'High +Ev Variance.'

The 2nd purpose was for the excuse to use Tommy Angelo's quote.

However, when someone opens in EP with 44, knowing damn well, that due to the table dynamic he is going to get raised the vast majority of the time & the stacks are such that there is no way he has any chance of making 8x+ his preflop investment after the expected raise, should he flop a set, solely on the basis that he's on a 'heater'.... well then, he's no different than the guy who chooses a number/color on the roulette wheel based on past events.

I live on the east coast of the U.S. So, anytime you see me having posted something like this in the early a.m. hours, you must ask yourself: Is ZuneIt being 'quacky' or serious?
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Old 01-23-2016, 01:37 PM   #12969
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One was to put force this ridiculous notion that 'heater' & 'cooler' should be replaced with a more accurate term, which I pegged as 'High +Ev Variance.'
Why? Who cares? That's not a "player friendly" term and not more accurate. In fact, your term is more inaccurate than "heater" or "cooler."

"+EV" refers to actions taken that are mathematically profitable. So "high +EV variance" means high variance while making profitable decisions. Not really applicable to anything meaningful.

"Heater" means running above EV; "cooler" means running below EV. Let's keep it that way.
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Old 01-23-2016, 03:46 PM   #12970
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Sorry, I've lost track who's joking and who's trolling. To clarify, I was making the point that a player on a short bankroll, and concerned about risk of ruin, would be well advised to lock in wins.

How much of a win should be locked in? Depends. But the mathematical answer and the practical answer to that question would surely clash. We can say with confidence that if you've got enough of your roll on the table that you're scared money, you should have already locked in that win.
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Old 01-23-2016, 04:05 PM   #12971
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@ johnny_on_the_spot: Sorry Johnny! You were the one who didn't get it!
That is way more effort than I would ever put in for sarcasm/trolling

For the record, I didn't see the emoticon in the 1st post
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:09 PM   #12972
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt
One was to put force this ridiculous notion that 'heater' & 'cooler' should be replaced with a more accurate term, which I pegged as 'High +Ev Variance.'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sandbag View Post
Why? Who cares? That's not a "player friendly" term and not more accurate. In fact, your term is more inaccurate than "heater" or "cooler."

"+EV" refers to actions taken that are mathematically profitable. So "high +EV variance" means high variance while making profitable decisions. Not really applicable to anything meaningful.

"Heater" means running above EV; "cooler" means running below EV. Let's keep it that way.
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@ johnny_on_the_spot: Sorry Johnny! You were the one who didn't get it!
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That is way more effort than I would ever put in for sarcasm/trolling

For the record, I didn't see the emoticon in the 1st post
Well then, I guess you save all your creativity for your play then. I was not being sarcastic. I was attempting to be humorous with a dose of reality. I certainly wasn't trolling. So, wrong again.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 01-23-2016 at 05:23 PM.
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:10 PM   #12973
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Sorry, I've lost track who's joking and who's trolling. To clarify, I was making the point that a player on a short bankroll, and concerned about risk of ruin, would be well advised to lock in wins.
Can't win if you're not playing.

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How much of a win should be locked in? Depends. But the mathematical answer and the practical answer to that question would surely clash. We can say with confidence that if you've got enough of your roll on the table that you're scared money, you should have already locked in that win.
When the objective isn't to maximize WR, answer becomes "it depends."

It gets rather complicated depending on several variables.
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:13 PM   #12974
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Biggest side effect of believing in things such as heater and luck is basically succumbing to the idea of supernatural.

Then where do you draw the line?
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Old 01-23-2016, 05:19 PM   #12975
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Can't win if you're not playing.
So you've seen my bumper sticker.
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