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Old 12-29-2015, 04:58 PM   #12351
mpethybridge
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Congrats on moving up, mpethy. Look forward to seeing you on the raised floor at the Bellagio soon.
Thanks, I appreciate it. But I'm going to nit pick "moving up." I haven't really "moved up" in the sense that people usually mean it. Instead, I have simply added 2/5 to my table selection options. What I'm doing is just looking for the game I think I can beat for the biggest hourly. So I will move freely between 2/5 and 1/2 or 1/3. I have played 5 sessions this month where I started at 2/5 and moved to the lower game because it looked juicier, or started at 1/2 and moved to 2/5 because it looked better.

My presumption, of course, is that the 2/5 game will be my preference, but it is a rebuttable presumption, and if there's a reason to move, I move.

What I'm trying to avoid is the ego thing of "I moved up to 2/5, I am a 2/5 player" and I'm just looking for the best game in the room from hour to hour.

But, really, thanks. I appreciate your support.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 12-29-2015 at 05:13 PM. Reason: corrected auto-correct, lol
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Old 12-29-2015, 05:04 PM   #12352
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^spot on.. I was drafting a post about "moving up" and the entire thing was about expanding NOT "moving up"
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Old 12-29-2015, 05:09 PM   #12353
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^ Agreed. The only goal I am setting for myself for 2016 is "game selection to maximize cash flow," whether that be 1/2 or 10/10.

I think "grinding X/Y limit for $Z per year" is an outdated or less than ideal way of tackling the issue. My ultimate goal being to maximize hourly via careful game selection to minimize hours at the table and thus free up time to pursue alternative ventures.
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Old 12-29-2015, 05:46 PM   #12354
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Good point. How "short" is short in your opinion?
Well, I was thinking that would be the hourly cap if the game stayed in the 20-30bb range. Possible win rates will increase with more and more stack depth.

Idk what is "short." Personally, I won't stay in a game that doesn't have stacks of at least 100 bbs. I just much prefer deep stack play, and think that is where most of my win rate comes from.
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Old 12-29-2015, 05:49 PM   #12355
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^ Agree 100% on mpethy's post. A big part of my winrate is seeking out the best game across a range of limits rather than being slave to a certain one. A very underrated soft skill that 80-90% of regs/pros don't do imo.
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Old 12-29-2015, 06:48 PM   #12356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will post my results for the year to date. Hopefully I've calculated correctly.

Mostly 1|2 with a little 2|5, both (usually) 10 handed with 100BB max, playing since the beginning of August:

Hours played: 340
Total cash game profit: $11036
Win-rate in BB/hour: 13.4
Std-Dev in BB/hour: 100.
95% wr confidence interval: [2.6BB/h, 24.3BB/h]

Also a small tournament sample:

Tournaments played: 21
Net profit: $1268
ROI: 52%

Last edited by browni3141; 12-29-2015 at 06:57 PM.
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Old 12-29-2015, 08:32 PM   #12357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This was a pretty refreshing point.
I moved up a few months ago and since then lost any desire to grind lower limits, with no apparent reasoning behind it. I need to go back to my ways before of table selecting my ass off.
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Old 12-29-2015, 10:04 PM   #12358
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I regularly play 3/6 limit in a small casino that spreads only 3/6 and 4/8 limit.

If I can handle losing in that game, I can handle any LLSNL games.
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Old 12-30-2015, 12:03 AM   #12359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

End of year results post.

Had my best year ever in terms of Profit and second best in terms of Win Rate, albeit 2013 was skewed by one massive result.

2015 - 370 hours played, Profit $15,582 at $42.08ph

2014 - 367 hours played, Profit $9,585 at $26.08ph

2013 - 290 hours played, Profit $14,973 at $51.48ph

2012 - 281 hours played, Profit $9,010 at $32.02ph


Results are across cash and tournaments. My cash limits range from 1/1 ($100max) home games, to 1/2, 2/3, 2/4, 2/5 and 5/5 ($700max). My overall cash win rate in 2015 is 10.91bb an hour

I feel like I've improved this year in the technical and strategic areas of the game, with quite a lot of study via reading and re-reading a few key books and some note taking and scenario planning off them.

I have masses of areas I can improve, but where I believe I need to improve most is in my focus and concentration at the table. I just don't play my A game enough. I feel this is particularly true at what I see is my 'normal' game, my 5/5 game at the local casino.

Reason for this is that by the time I get to the casino, it's generally on Thursday or Friday night and I've had a long week of getting up early and going to the gym, running my business and all my family stuff. It becomes relaxation time and this, in addition to the fact that I know and am friendly with a lot of the regs I play with, means that it's become more social, I talk more and I'm way less focused on villains, tendencies, table dynamics and spots than is optimal.

As a result and in conjunction with there being some good regs and villains at my normal game, my win rate at the 5/5 is less than half what it is at other games.

so this is what I need to work on in 2016, along with planning for particular villains and plugging a load of technical leaks that I still have
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Old 12-30-2015, 12:49 AM   #12360
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice work FW :thumbsup:
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Old 12-30-2015, 02:07 AM   #12361
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What is a realistic hours goal for next year? I work full time 40-45 hrs/wk, live 35 min from casino, no kids
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Old 12-30-2015, 02:09 AM   #12362
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What's a really open question?
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Old 12-30-2015, 02:14 AM   #12363
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Tree Fiddy.
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Old 12-30-2015, 02:18 AM   #12364
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Gj feelie grats on the new pb

Did you have a goal to hit certain hours, or was it more like "if i have time after everything else..."?
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Old 12-30-2015, 02:21 AM   #12365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

gj fw
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Old 12-30-2015, 03:07 AM   #12366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by rtd353 View Post
What is a realistic hours goal for next year? I work full time 40-45 hrs/wk, live 35 min from casino, no kids
I work more hours per week than you and live further from the casino and I managed to put in 800 hours this year.
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Old 12-30-2015, 03:18 AM   #12367
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Gj feelie grats on the new pb

Did you have a goal to hit certain hours, or was it more like "if i have time after everything else..."?

Thank you Snowie and others.

I was hoping to play a few more hours but life got in the way a few times. The deal with wifey is once a week, more when there's a tourney series in town and then a good week/10 days in Vegas.

So I thought I might get closer to 450 but I had a few months when I only played once or twice

My short term goal each year is to make more $$ than I did the previous year while enjoying poker as a passion and a hobby.

The long term goals remain the same. Be a profitable player in any cash game I want to play in and to bink a big tourney
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Old 12-30-2015, 04:20 AM   #12368
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Grinding through a 120 hour break even stretch. Longest break even of 2015. Was hoping to close out the year strong but that ain't happening. Eff this game sometimes.
Lol 120 hours of BE. Go change your diapers kid!
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Old 12-30-2015, 10:38 AM   #12369
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Nice werk FW!!
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Old 12-30-2015, 03:53 PM   #12370
t_roy
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What is a realistic hours goal for next year? I work full time 40-45 hrs/wk, live 35 min from casino, no kids
I've done 1200 a year, for two years in a similar situation. That is really high though. Definitely tiring. Really depends what your goals are and what other stuff you have going on. I'd consider 1200 an upper cap if you are really focused on poker. Can't imagine doing much more without sacrificing a lot of sleep, which is a mistake imo.
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Old 12-30-2015, 03:56 PM   #12371
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Really depends on how you see poker as.

If you see it as a part-time job, then ask yourself, why are you looking for a part-time job?

If you see it as a fun hobby, then that number is really matter of when you stop seeing it as fun hobby, and it's different for everyone.
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Old 12-30-2015, 05:05 PM   #12372
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I didnt do so great this year in terms of work ethic... only played about 1000 hours and made a little over 50
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Old 12-30-2015, 05:22 PM   #12373
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Nice werk FW!!

Tank yu mye mang
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Old 12-30-2015, 05:52 PM   #12374
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2015 is in the books for me. Proud of the year I put in and looking forward to bigger and better things in 2016. Here's some data. My 1/3 stats went to **** in December as I realized it's a pretty bad game at my primary room and only worth playing at the secondary casino.





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Old 12-30-2015, 06:10 PM   #12375
bip!
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Very nice work Johny
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