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Old 12-26-2015, 02:27 PM   #12326
ATsai
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Why can't he afford to borrow some money if he has positive cash flow coming every month above and beyond his bills?

We are not saying that he should borrow 100k and then trying to run it up at live 10/20 NL. Live 2/5 NL is usually super easy to beat... Especially when it is the smallest game spread in the area.

There will be a lot of ******s who would normally play 1/2 NL, but they still punt off stacks at GloryRising's 2/5 table because it is the smallest NLHE game. I would be surprised if the level of play at his 2/5 table was any better than 1/2 NL at the casinos where you guys normally play.
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Old 12-26-2015, 02:31 PM   #12327
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

He can. I just think it's hotrendous to advise him to do so when it appears there is an underlying money mgt issue in play

Last edited by Garick; 12-26-2015 at 02:53 PM. Reason: hotrendous added to dictionary
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Old 12-26-2015, 02:33 PM   #12328
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No one is arguing that the play in this game is likely to be mediocre at best
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Old 12-26-2015, 02:33 PM   #12329
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Because beating the game for rake and interest is harder than beating the game for rake and maybe he can't beat the game for rake? Because he might lose his day job next week? Because credit is not usually available on favorable terms to people who can only put their hands on a thousand dollars at a time?
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Old 12-26-2015, 02:51 PM   #12330
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Please tell me this "take out a loan" advice is a level, and then stop doing it in LLSNL.

We don't even know if OP is +EV in the game. Some online players have a really hard time transitioning to live and can spew off great wodges of cash before they adjust, especially if 2/5 is the lowest available level.

We definitely don't know what his opportunity cost of not playing would be, nor the EV differential between playing with a small BR that can only be replenished once a month, vs a large BR that he's terrified of losing and thus incurring long-term debt and upset spouse.
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Old 12-26-2015, 03:39 PM   #12331
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I like how the assumption here is that it's possible to lose 2 buy ins, but never possible to lose the loan. Nope, epic downswings do happen, and quite frankly 10k at a 500 buy in is not even that epic.

Variance happens.

I also like how there's an argument that he'll be nervous playing with only 2 buy ins, but he won't be nervous playing with money that he doesn't have. What if he loses 2 buy ins of money he doesn't have? Think he'll play the remainder of the money he doesn't have well?
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Old 12-26-2015, 03:41 PM   #12332
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

After the month of December I can finally say that yes, downswings of that magnitude are very possible.

Some people are just fortunate enough to have been able to built a roll to sustain such a loss before variance hit them that hard.
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Old 12-26-2015, 03:58 PM   #12333
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
ATsai could do it and be fine - it's established he's got a big skill advantage over his competition. So his risk is near zero and he'd be able to pay off the LOC no problem.

Most posters here (myself included) would be better off saving rather than put themselves at risk of over-leveraging themselves.
Yeah, I'd agree with that. Plus, atsai probably have enough life asset accumulated (having played much longer than most people here) to 1) secure any loans at a very low rate, and 2) be able to liquidate some assets to pay the loan back if he were ever to run bad and not recover, which lowers the stress of playing leveraged
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Old 12-27-2015, 12:58 PM   #12334
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Why not chop the buy ins in half, have 4 buy ins and just play it. All this bankroll stuff is nonsense if he has a day job. He loses ev by not playing at all, versus running around trying to get a loan IN CASE he has a downswing. He should get the loan after the run bad, not before. If he's a winning player, it is more likely he just runs it up than just crashes into the ground.

And if he fails, it gives him an opportunity to re-examine if he is actually beating the game, rather than him start digging into his loaned money.
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Old 12-27-2015, 02:32 PM   #12335
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Re: Borrowing to finance your bankroll:

Has anyone not yet noticed that GloryRising [who started this] has not commented in over 55 hours, despite having just been here last night @ 11:48PM.

I would think that if he was serious, he'd have a lil' sumpin' to say about the pages of comments about borrowing money.......eh?
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Old 12-27-2015, 02:40 PM   #12336
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I somewhat agree with ATsai.

Whether GR is a winner or not, he really hurts his chances having an effective bankroll of zero. With 2 BIs you can hardly make a single bet without worrying about busting, trying to play poker like that is a tremendous handicap.

I think 10k is overkill. I don't like the idea of going into debt to gamble, even in a case where repaying it won't be a problem, without fully understanding the risk (if we could say our ev is X and our RoR is Y that would be different, but we can't make that informed a decision here.) We also don't know if GR is or could be any kind of problem gambler -- the skill level in live poker is like 2NL online so it's easy to forget we're playing with significant money for a lot of people and may have some kind of psychological effect.

I would just play really nitty at first and observe, try to get a handle on the game, and figure out exactly how you're going to win. That will give you some confidence and allow you to make good decisions on a short roll without doubting yourself. That will be +ev in the long run.

2.5 BIs is the bare minimum I like to have on hand to play -- lets me rebuy once and top up and still have a full stack, I rarely have to worry about busting in any given session.

Having a replenishing roll of 2 BIs a month is really not a bad spot to be in. It's probably the best realistic scenario for someone just getting in to live poker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Re: Borrowing to finance your bankroll:

Has anyone not yet noticed that GloryRising [who started this] has not commented in over 55 hours, despite having just been here last night @ 11:48PM.

I would think that if he was serious, he'd have a lil' sumpin' to say about the pages of comments about borrowing money.......eh?
I think he started a standalone thread which was merged into here, so it's possible he hasn't seen any of the replies.
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Old 12-27-2015, 05:09 PM   #12337
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi, thanks for all the replies, very much appreciated. I have kept up with all comments but don't always have time to reply.

At this point, as a summary of the advice, I think my initial strategy might be okay as long as I'm not playing scared money. (I don't think I am because I'm not worried about losing the BI's... only my pride will be hurt because I don't get to brag to people who doubt that I should even be playing poker at all).

For the record, I'm the complete opposite of a problem gambler. I think of myself as investing money with a good return, I do not gamble it. If I was a losing player, I would either continue playing online at a lower stake or quit (or study more... probably study which I do anyway...).

I would rather play full stacked than half stacked as I haven't studied short stack play enough to feel confident. I would even rather 100bb than 80bb but I just play a little tighter than usual and that is a good thing in this situation I suppose.
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Old 12-28-2015, 11:42 AM   #12338
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Grinding through a 120 hour break even stretch. Longest break even of 2015. Was hoping to close out the year strong but that ain't happening. Eff this game sometimes.
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Old 12-28-2015, 01:18 PM   #12339
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sounds like you have your head screwed on tight, GloryRoad. There are a couple of good threads linked in the "Best of LLSNL" on transitioning from online to live that I strongly suggest you read. Cliffs: Value betting goes way up, and Fold Equity goes WAY down in LLSNL.
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Old 12-28-2015, 02:58 PM   #12340
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So yesterday morning I am at the MGM playing the invitational (min 15 hours to qualify) tournament. Another reg gets seated at my table. Starts chatting with his neighbor, who is a tourist who qualified, and at some point in the conversation, points at me and says "well, that guy has been grinding here longer than anyone else--since the paleolithic, I think."

I say, no, there's at least one other guy--X--who started here before I did. Reg says, "no, X and I are tight. He busted his roll last month and is now looking for an IT job." I think about it, and I haven't seen X in about a month, so I figure this could be true.

X is a solid player who definitely has the game to grind for a living, and no life leaks--no pit gambling, no drugs, etc. I surmise that he must have been cutting it too close. That he kept a small roll and needed essentially all of his profits to live on, and that a downswing got him.

Just another reminder that having the skill to beat the game is just one of the important skill sets to have when playing for a living.

I'm in my fifth year of grinding live poker for a living (anniversary is July), and I have seen this happen to several players. This one, X, is the only one it really surprises me to see it happen to, because he actually is very solid, mature and level-headed, and good enough to beat the games for a living wage.

I know there are others out there who have been grinding for a living for longer than four or five years (I know a few of them IRL), but I find it interesting that my relatively brief career is nevertheless long enough to be seen as remarkable by others, and one of the longer careers.

I guess that should be an interesting datum for people who are aspiring to go pro; that the shelf life of a pro who isn't prepared to go pro in terms of roll and living expenses, as well as skills, is less than 4 years. In fact, if I look back at the "pros" I have seen go busto, most of them have not lasted two years. But X had lasted at least five, and variance still caught up with him and ended his career.
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:07 PM   #12341
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



Nice post
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:58 PM   #12342
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good poast M.

I can't imagine wanting to or choosing to grind this game out for a living. I also think a lot of people underestimate some of the intangibles that would weigh one down/result in failure.

I tip my cap to anyone that can do it but I think the numbers that could do it are far less than most in this forum would be willing to admit.
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Old 12-28-2015, 10:23 PM   #12343
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M, what stakes do you play again, if you don't mind me asking?
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Old 12-29-2015, 02:39 AM   #12344
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I think the real question is, why would you lay 15 hours at MGM?
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Old 12-29-2015, 02:50 AM   #12345
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I think there is a huge difference between 1/2 and 2/5+ in terms of playing them for a living.

You can be a crusher and make $20-$25 an hour in 1/2 and that sounds like a pretty good deal but its actually not enough. Most pros can't play over 1500hrs a year and earning $20 per hour is roughly 30k and in a lot of places in the country, that is not enough for you to play and save up for whatever you need to save up. It's just really hard. Some casinos have trouble running games bigger than 1/2-1/3.

If you can make $50-$75 playing 2/5 and crushing the game, then I can see this as being a profession you can keep doing and prosper.

Another reason why people seeking to play poker professionally has a high turnover is the "honeymoon" phase can only last so long. Maybe a year or 2. Most people aren't built to enjoy poker on their 5th year of playing professionally. So instead, they take their foot off the pedal, fall into bad lazy habits, maybe take up playing some pit games because god knows the casinos try their best to entice you to sit down at the pits. And bam, you're done.

Drugs are obviously another and from what I hear, marijuana is a pretty popular drug on the tourney circuit. Honestly, the people you end up hanging out with/talking to mostly aren't going to keep you as straight-arrowed as you need to be.
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Old 12-29-2015, 10:23 AM   #12346
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by genghiskan View Post
M, what stakes do you play again, if you don't mind me asking?
Don't mind a bit. Was playing solely 1/2 and 1/3 up until the start of this month. Now playing 2/5 in addition to those games.
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Old 12-29-2015, 11:48 AM   #12347
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Congrats on moving up, mpethy. Look forward to seeing you on the raised floor at the Bellagio soon.
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Old 12-29-2015, 12:40 PM   #12348
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Live cash game possible winrates (questions)
Hi guys, Im in Mexico with friends and i discover a 25/50$ (pesos), in euro is like a nl263 (bb=2.63eur) and player play really short 10-20...30x
sometimes fish 2up and you can see players with 5k$ stack...

General information:
Rules make game really slow becouse dealer give card to sit out players and if u are sit out u must post blinds and at the end of spot dealer put in order chips close to every time before give you the pot...

My question is this..
How many bb/100 is possible make in this limit hourly?
Rake is so low

0-1000 25
1000-2000 50
2000+ 75
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Old 12-29-2015, 01:59 PM   #12349
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krisssss View Post
Live cash game possible winrates (questions)
Hi guys, Im in Mexico with friends and i discover a 25/50$ (pesos), in euro is like a nl263 (bb=2.63eur) and player play really short 10-20...30x
sometimes fish 2up and you can see players with 5k$ stack...

General information:
Rules make game really slow becouse dealer give card to sit out players and if u are sit out u must post blinds and at the end of spot dealer put in order chips close to every time before give you the pot...

My question is this..
How many bb/100 is possible make in this limit hourly?
Rake is so low

0-1000 25
1000-2000 50
2000+ 75
Main factor here is stack depth. If players generally remain short, I would guesstimate that the max would be around 3-4 bbs/hour.
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Old 12-29-2015, 02:38 PM   #12350
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Main factor here is stack depth. If players generally remain short, I would guesstimate that the max would be around 3-4 bbs/hour.
Good point. How "short" is short in your opinion?
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