River aggression factor infinity too.

Would actually be super interesting to compare sd/ci under tracking software norms and using a pareto-distributed bayesian credibility interval. A few sample records might not be that different from what is being used, but might suggest a directional adjustment (not unlike what troy was alluding to).

Pretty sure that deriving your hourly stdev from your session stdev requires a rather complex formula which I doubt anyone in the thread is using. That is why most people are reporting stdev/hour figures which I believe are lower than their true figures.

Having a large winrate is highly correlated to having a high stdev. I doubt anyone winning near 10bb/hour can have a stdev of lower than 60bb/hour, in general I think most live players with 5bb+/hour WR's will fall between the 80bb-100bb stdev/hour range.

Just stfu Zoltan

Your first paragraph was why I doubted that I had calculated my SD per hour correctly. My spreadsheet simply calculated the SD of my session results with no regard for the number of hours I played. The command to get it to calculate the SD for my session results was simply =STDEVPA (first session : last session).

So the figure I reported, $302, was the SD describing the variance in my session results, it wasn't an hourly SD.

To get it to calculate my REAL hourly SD, I would have to input my results every hour. To get an approximation, I would have to generate a session hourly win rate and then run the SD on that column, I think.

[ ] helpful

The method to correct it to hourly has been described/linked/written before (go figure by 2+2 brass):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4

There are also other methods that suffice.

This thread is Groundhog Day - not sure how we can organize all the key info.. lots is in the OP, but nobody reads it of course.

The thing that actually converges pretty accurate and sooner is stdev. It is the WR portion that most will never arrive at.

I have confirmed already with two players in my room that poker journal spits out wrong #s for them. (I don't use poker journal)

The last part about stdev correlation to WR.. I do believe there are practical caps on real WR at a given stdev. Mainly saying "you can't win more without taking on more risk". My best guess is WR probably caps out @ 10~15% of stdev. One might present a Results Rate that seems to disprove that... but really that is just saying there results represent a hot run. It would take a very special player pool just giving money away and mucking winners for anyone to hold a WR of 20%+ of stdev.

Hi,

I've decided to try out live cash but the smallest game near me is 500NL. The max buy in is $400. I'm a winning player up to 25NL online and crushed live tournaments at the local pubs/clubs over the last year (ROI over 100%). I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month. Is this a bad plan? My play is not affected btw.

Should I be playing live cash at this limit? Or should I wait until I have at least 20 BI's. I've only played one short session so far ending break even but I'm wondering if I should be playing or not.

Advice? Any personal experience stories? What bankroll management strategies do people use when making such a big jump? Not sure if I should be playing it or not...

Thanks in advance.

meh, I did this as well, before I started winning money online.
It really is not that bad, you most likely lose your money, but if you consider it as a hobby with the very real possibility it could show profit for you, nothing wrong in that approach at all.

Things just dont add up.

You are a winning player online, crush local tourneys with over 100% ROI, have a job, and you cannot come up with more than 2 BI?

Heh, I also have a family.

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking, thanks.

You dont have a bamkroll. You dont have ro manage it. Go to the casino. Play poker. Have fun. Win. Lose. Rinse and repeat.

You can"t manage two buyins. All you can do is try to run like God until its 10 buyins.

Mathematically, there is no difference between playing with a 20bi bankroll and a bankroll that has 2bi and iou's from yourself for 1bi per month for the next 18 months. Psychologically, the difference is huge for most people.

100% this is the best plan. 20 buy in stuff applies to people without cash flow.

I agree with bip!.....only......if you don't go into the game with mindset that I see so many with shallow bankrolls do...... scared shytless that this is the hand that will send them home long b4 they wanted to leave!

You also can't let on to anyone at the table, in any way, that your cash poor, because some will capitalize on that.

When I first started playin' cash again in June 2015, I started with a 2k bankroll and played really, really freakin' tight. I got my starting hand selection here:

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...standards.html - Author - Ed Miller

I removed 22-66 from EP [unless it was a real limp fest table] & I did not play AJo in the 1st 4 seats after the BB.

Instead, I studied, watched & studied so more so I could improve my play OTB, CO, HJ & Steal seats. I did a helluva' lotta' folding in EP because I was only playin' about ~7% of all starting hands.

However, Tommy Angelo on Reciprocality:

Position Reciprocality

"The first shall be last and the last shall be first." — Jesus

Think of every hand of poker. Think of the enormous number of hands played on the internet, and then add to that every hand played in home games and casinos. Now think of that sum total of all hands, broken down to street by street. All those streets. Millions, billions, whateverillions, it's a lot. Now consider this. Every one of those streets has this in common: someone goes first, and someone goes last.

I agree with everyone who thinks that acting last is better than acting first. But we have to slow down here because this is delicate. Position reciprocality is not the difference between first and last. It's the difference between firsts and lasts. When seen through the lens of reciprocality, positional advantage does not belong to the player who acts last. It belongs to the player who acts last most often. The advantage of acting last exists during every round of betting. It's always there, at every moment, like home field advantage during a football game. At pro football, during the regular season, to keep everything fair, each team plays half their games at home and half on the road. The rules do not allow a team to create a home-game/away-game reciprocal advantage simply by folding their away games. But at poker, we are allowed to do exactly that. We can fold our "away games," our bad positions, and thereby act last more often than we act first, and thereby create an advantage.

http://tommyangelo.com/articles/reciprocality/

If you have only 2 BIs and have good positive cash flow that you can tap each month, then you just need a short term loan.

Taking a loan to play cards with seems like a really bad idea. If you've got the skills to best 25NL online just take 1-2 buyin shots and soon enough you'll hit a heater to run it up to 5-10 buyins.

Wrt your family make sure your wife understands that this time you have a different goal and that winnings aren't immediately available to spend, but if all goes to plan you can pay her later.

If I had a good job/side income that brought in 2k extra per month, there would be no reason for me wait 5 months before jumping into live 2/5 NL... Even if I had only 1k available right now.

I would just borrow 10k from someone, so I could sit in juicy live 2/5 NL games immediately without having to worry whether I would bust my 2 BIs in less than 3 hours.

More importantly, playing with only 2 bullets leads to a lot of -EV decisions like avoiding +EV shoves because I don't want to risk getting stacked. The EV that I would be giving up on a regular basis would be much greater than the interest that I would be paying on a short term 10k loan (that I would be able to pay off in 5 months anyway).

Borrow money to go gamble - what could go wrong?

Stopped reading merry Christmas!

Lol seriously.

ATsai, the juicy $2/5 games will still be around after you've put away the $2k/month for 5 months. That's the way to go, not going into debt to gamble.

Serious question: what kind of interest rate could you get on a $10k loan for a start-up bankroll? Cause I know it ain't gonna be from Wells Fargo.

I recently had an offer of 4.5% interest rate on a 30k HELOC (home equity line of credit) from Wells Fargo.

Guess I always considered a HELOC an emergency line rather than providing other investment opportunities.

I think the $250 in interest is a very small price to pay to have an additional 10k in your pocket for extra bullets at 2/5 NL because you would have otherwise lost thousands of $ in missed EV if you played overly nitty in high-variance +EV spots and/or had to quit super juicy free money parties because you already busted the measly 1k in your pocket.