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Old 12-24-2015, 02:02 PM   #12276
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

App is dead, so you won't have to worry about helping a commercial software.
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Old 12-24-2015, 02:26 PM   #12277
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Bip!, what's your take on how the typical players results are distributed?

Just a guess, but I would expect a distribution like the blue one below:



^the mode of that chart would be in losing territory.

However, I have no evidence at all to support that guess.
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Old 12-24-2015, 02:29 PM   #12278
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also see "paretonormal" below



Some online poker room would know very well how these are distributed.

When the guys busted the ultimate bet cheaters - didn't they post winrate distribution charts that showed the cheaters as outliers? Maybe dig those up.
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Old 12-24-2015, 02:35 PM   #12279
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Another point is that the attrition of losing players (and even break even players) is likely much much higher than that of the top winners.. so even though the population distribution may be X - the sample any given night might have an over-representation of the top players. That could lead to all sorts of distribution possibilities including bimodal where there is a good portion of winners(most likely to be there), and a good portion of slight losers (most likely population).
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Old 12-24-2015, 02:57 PM   #12280
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Also see "paretonormal" below



Some online poker room would know very well how these are distributed.

When the guys busted the ultimate bet cheaters - didn't they post winrate distribution charts that showed the cheaters as outliers? Maybe dig those up.
I think the "smoking gun" they had was a plot of VPIP to winrate against several known winners.

And potripper was crushing playing 35% of hands in full ring or something like that.
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Old 12-24-2015, 03:29 PM   #12281
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. I did not mean nitty in a bad way - more TAG which is top strat for LLSNL. Also, are you using poker journal?

Anyone who uses the app and has an excel sheet with the same records can confirm my suspicion about a miscalculation.
Not insulted, just surprised. I def feel like I play a pretty textbook TAG style most of the time. It's just that when I overdo something, it's usually the "AG."

I use a freeware excel spreadsheet called "Session Log." No app, as I'm too lazy to re-enter all of my results.
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Old 12-24-2015, 03:47 PM   #12282
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
I think the "smoking gun" they had was a plot of VPIP to winrate against several known winners.

And potripper was crushing playing 35% of hands in full ring or something like that.

River aggression factor infinity too.
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Old 12-24-2015, 03:50 PM   #12283
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Just a guess, but I would expect a distribution like the blue one below:



^the mode of that chart would be in losing territory.

However, I have no evidence at all to support that guess.
Would actually be super interesting to compare sd/ci under tracking software norms and using a pareto-distributed bayesian credibility interval. A few sample records might not be that different from what is being used, but might suggest a directional adjustment (not unlike what troy was alluding to).
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Old 12-24-2015, 04:30 PM   #12284
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Pretty sure that deriving your hourly stdev from your session stdev requires a rather complex formula which I doubt anyone in the thread is using. That is why most people are reporting stdev/hour figures which I believe are lower than their true figures.

Having a large winrate is highly correlated to having a high stdev. I doubt anyone winning near 10bb/hour can have a stdev of lower than 60bb/hour, in general I think most live players with 5bb+/hour WR's will fall between the 80bb-100bb stdev/hour range.
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Old 12-24-2015, 05:38 PM   #12285
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Oh look who's a bayesian now!

The thing is, when we use CI, we're using a frequentist worldview... Which means we're naive to all information that might be available. Which means there's no theoretical cap on wr. (absurd, but this is the frequentist approach taught in stats 101.)

Sometimes (not always) CI and credible interval converge (ie when sampling distribution is normally distributed). I sort of doubt that's the case very often though.

Bip!, what's your take on how the typical players results are distributed?

Just stfu Zoltan
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Old 12-24-2015, 05:42 PM   #12286
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
Pretty sure that deriving your hourly stdev from your session stdev requires a rather complex formula which I doubt anyone in the thread is using. That is why most people are reporting stdev/hour figures which I believe are lower than their true figures.

Having a large winrate is highly correlated to having a high stdev. I doubt anyone winning near 10bb/hour can have a stdev of lower than 60bb/hour, in general I think most live players with 5bb+/hour WR's will fall between the 80bb-100bb stdev/hour range.
Your first paragraph was why I doubted that I had calculated my SD per hour correctly. My spreadsheet simply calculated the SD of my session results with no regard for the number of hours I played. The command to get it to calculate the SD for my session results was simply =STDEVPA (first session : last session).

So the figure I reported, $302, was the SD describing the variance in my session results, it wasn't an hourly SD.

To get it to calculate my REAL hourly SD, I would have to input my results every hour. To get an approximation, I would have to generate a session hourly win rate and then run the SD on that column, I think.
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Old 12-24-2015, 05:52 PM   #12287
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Just stfu Zoltan
[ ] helpful
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Old 12-24-2015, 06:23 PM   #12288
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The method to correct it to hourly has been described/linked/written before (go figure by 2+2 brass):

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4

There are also other methods that suffice.

This thread is Groundhog Day - not sure how we can organize all the key info.. lots is in the OP, but nobody reads it of course.

Last edited by bip!; 12-24-2015 at 06:30 PM.
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Old 12-24-2015, 06:29 PM   #12289
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
Pretty sure that deriving your hourly stdev from your session stdev requires a rather complex formula which I doubt anyone in the thread is using. That is why most people are reporting stdev/hour figures which I believe are lower than their true figures.

Having a large winrate is highly correlated to having a high stdev. I doubt anyone winning near 10bb/hour can have a stdev of lower than 60bb/hour, in general I think most live players with 5bb+/hour WR's will fall between the 80bb-100bb stdev/hour range.

The thing that actually converges pretty accurate and sooner is stdev. It is the WR portion that most will never arrive at.

I have confirmed already with two players in my room that poker journal spits out wrong #s for them. (I don't use poker journal)

The last part about stdev correlation to WR.. I do believe there are practical caps on real WR at a given stdev. Mainly saying "you can't win more without taking on more risk". My best guess is WR probably caps out @ 10~15% of stdev. One might present a Results Rate that seems to disprove that... but really that is just saying there results represent a hot run. It would take a very special player pool just giving money away and mucking winners for anyone to hold a WR of 20%+ of stdev.
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Old 12-25-2015, 05:08 AM   #12290
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Help with bankroll management

Hi,

I've decided to try out live cash but the smallest game near me is 500NL. The max buy in is $400. I'm a winning player up to 25NL online and crushed live tournaments at the local pubs/clubs over the last year (ROI over 100%). I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month. Is this a bad plan? My play is not affected btw.

Should I be playing live cash at this limit? Or should I wait until I have at least 20 BI's. I've only played one short session so far ending break even but I'm wondering if I should be playing or not.

Advice? Any personal experience stories? What bankroll management strategies do people use when making such a big jump? Not sure if I should be playing it or not...

Thanks in advance.
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Old 12-25-2015, 05:50 AM   #12291
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Re: Help with bankroll management

meh, I did this as well, before I started winning money online.
It really is not that bad, you most likely lose your money, but if you consider it as a hobby with the very real possibility it could show profit for you, nothing wrong in that approach at all.
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Old 12-25-2015, 06:19 AM   #12292
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Re: Help with bankroll management

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Originally Posted by GloryRising View Post
I'm a winning player up to 25NL online and crushed live tournaments at the local pubs/clubs over the last year (ROI over 100%).
Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryRising View Post
I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's
Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryRising View Post
and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month.
Things just dont add up.

You are a winning player online, crush local tourneys with over 100% ROI, have a job, and you cannot come up with more than 2 BI?
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Old 12-25-2015, 07:27 AM   #12293
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Re: Help with bankroll management

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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Things just dont add up.

You are a winning player online, crush local tourneys with over 100% ROI, have a job, and you cannot come up with more than 2 BI?
Heh, I also have a family.

Quote:
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meh, I did this as well, before I started winning money online.
It really is not that bad, you most likely lose your money, but if you consider it as a hobby with the very real possibility it could show profit for you, nothing wrong in that approach at all.
Pretty much exactly what I was thinking, thanks.
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Old 12-25-2015, 09:07 AM   #12294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You dont have a bamkroll. You dont have ro manage it. Go to the casino. Play poker. Have fun. Win. Lose. Rinse and repeat.

You can"t manage two buyins. All you can do is try to run like God until its 10 buyins.
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Old 12-25-2015, 10:04 AM   #12295
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Re: Help with bankroll management

Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryRising View Post
Hi,

I've decided to try out live cash but the smallest game near me is 500NL. The max buy in is $400. I'm a winning player up to 25NL online and crushed live tournaments at the local pubs/clubs over the last year (ROI over 100%). I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month. Is this a bad plan? My play is not affected btw.

Should I be playing live cash at this limit? Or should I wait until I have at least 20 BI's. I've only played one short session so far ending break even but I'm wondering if I should be playing or not.

Advice? Any personal experience stories? What bankroll management strategies do people use when making such a big jump? Not sure if I should be playing it or not...

Thanks in advance.
Mathematically, there is no difference between playing with a 20bi bankroll and a bankroll that has 2bi and iou's from yourself for 1bi per month for the next 18 months. Psychologically, the difference is huge for most people.
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Old 12-25-2015, 11:06 AM   #12296
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Re: Help with bankroll management

Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryRising View Post
I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month. Is this a bad plan?

100% this is the best plan. 20 buy in stuff applies to people without cash flow.
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Old 12-25-2015, 11:39 AM   #12297
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Re: Help with bankroll management

Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryRising
I'm not sure what my plan should be with regard to bankroll though. At present I to just take a shot with max 2 BI's and if I lose these will earn 1 or 2 BI's per month at my job over the year that I could use to play and take the shot each month. Is this a bad plan?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
100% this is the best plan. 20 buy in stuff applies to people without cash flow.
I agree with bip!.....only......if you don't go into the game with mindset that I see so many with shallow bankrolls do...... scared shytless that this is the hand that will send them home long b4 they wanted to leave!

You also can't let on to anyone at the table, in any way, that your cash poor, because some will capitalize on that.

When I first started playin' cash again in June 2015, I started with a 2k bankroll and played really, really freakin' tight. I got my starting hand selection here:

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...standards.html - Author - Ed Miller

I removed 22-66 from EP [unless it was a real limp fest table] & I did not play AJo in the 1st 4 seats after the BB.

Instead, I studied, watched & studied so more so I could improve my play OTB, CO, HJ & Steal seats. I did a helluva' lotta' folding in EP because I was only playin' about ~7% of all starting hands.

However, Tommy Angelo on Reciprocality:

Position Reciprocality

"The first shall be last and the last shall be first." — Jesus

Think of every hand of poker. Think of the enormous number of hands played on the internet, and then add to that every hand played in home games and casinos. Now think of that sum total of all hands, broken down to street by street. All those streets. Millions, billions, whateverillions, it's a lot. Now consider this. Every one of those streets has this in common: someone goes first, and someone goes last.

I agree with everyone who thinks that acting last is better than acting first. But we have to slow down here because this is delicate. Position reciprocality is not the difference between first and last. It's the difference between firsts and lasts. When seen through the lens of reciprocality, positional advantage does not belong to the player who acts last. It belongs to the player who acts last most often. The advantage of acting last exists during every round of betting. It's always there, at every moment, like home field advantage during a football game. At pro football, during the regular season, to keep everything fair, each team plays half their games at home and half on the road. The rules do not allow a team to create a home-game/away-game reciprocal advantage simply by folding their away games. But at poker, we are allowed to do exactly that. We can fold our "away games," our bad positions, and thereby act last more often than we act first, and thereby create an advantage.

http://tommyangelo.com/articles/reciprocality/
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Old 12-25-2015, 12:11 PM   #12298
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you have only 2 BIs and have good positive cash flow that you can tap each month, then you just need a short term loan.
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Old 12-25-2015, 04:31 PM   #12299
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Taking a loan to play cards with seems like a really bad idea. If you've got the skills to best 25NL online just take 1-2 buyin shots and soon enough you'll hit a heater to run it up to 5-10 buyins.

Wrt your family make sure your wife understands that this time you have a different goal and that winnings aren't immediately available to spend, but if all goes to plan you can pay her later.
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Old 12-25-2015, 06:08 PM   #12300
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If I had a good job/side income that brought in 2k extra per month, there would be no reason for me wait 5 months before jumping into live 2/5 NL... Even if I had only 1k available right now.

I would just borrow 10k from someone, so I could sit in juicy live 2/5 NL games immediately without having to worry whether I would bust my 2 BIs in less than 3 hours.

More importantly, playing with only 2 bullets leads to a lot of -EV decisions like avoiding +EV shoves because I don't want to risk getting stacked. The EV that I would be giving up on a regular basis would be much greater than the interest that I would be paying on a short term 10k loan (that I would be able to pay off in 5 months anyway).
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