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12-23-2015, 04:47 PM   #12251
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate. Mine for 1/2 \$300 Max BI: Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: \$118.70/hr Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs Current Win Rate: \$31.21/hr (2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25) =(118.7/18.577) = +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- \$12.13 95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between: \$19.08 and \$43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)
Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but...

I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol?

G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG

12-23-2015, 04:54 PM   #12252
mpethybridge
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but... I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol? G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 12-23-2015 at 04:56 PM. Reason: post # 17,000, imo.

12-23-2015, 04:59 PM   #12253
bwslim69
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by zoltan A CI is by definition "statistically relevant." A CI will become narrower as sample size increases, all else equal. But it's based on frequentist theory.

Bemoreboring.gif

 12-23-2015, 05:00 PM #12254 HappyLuckBox old hand     Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,489 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances you can also calculate for 99% confidence by changing the multiplier to a 3 instead of a 2. (3*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed
12-23-2015, 05:15 PM   #12255
bip!
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.

12-23-2015, 05:19 PM   #12256
HappyLuckBox
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate. Mine for 1/2 \$300 Max BI: Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: \$118.70/hr Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs Current Win Rate: \$31.21/hr (2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25) =(118.7/18.577) = +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- \$12.13 95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between: \$19.08 and \$43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)

ie recalculating yours for 99% gave me a range of +- 9.588bbs or +-\$19.16 an hour.

so your 99% confidence range is \$12.05 to \$50.37

Likely to the lower end of that

12-23-2015, 05:31 PM   #12257
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
Yeah, as bip! mentions, my Std Dev (according to PokerJournal) is actually slightly less than Dizzy's in terms of bb/hr.

GcluelessStdDevnoobG

 12-23-2015, 05:41 PM #12258 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,673 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Mpethy may be used to stdev in /100 90bb/100 ~= 52bb/hr
12-23-2015, 06:08 PM   #12259
mpethybridge
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! Mpethy may be used to stdev in /100 90bb/100 ~= 52bb/hr
If I just did it right, I came back with a standard deviation of \$301.60 per hour for my last 1250 hours. That yields a CI of +/- \$8.53 centered on my achieved WR of \$20.70 for that sample, or 95% confidence of \$12.17 to \$29.23.

Look right? It basically makes sense to me, as my EV adjusted WR is right near the top of that range.

12-23-2015, 06:51 PM   #12260
grinder

Join Date: Feb 2006
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
Where I am currently at, due to lack of game election, I primarily have to play 1/2NL (\$300 cap buy in) and regardless of the game I am playing, length or the session or how it went, I input the results.

Since being here this time, I have logged 387.75 hours, maintained an hourly of over \$25 and according to Poker Income, my Std Dev is \$111.73.

Also, much of this time has been during "non-prime" days/hours due to my schedule. I believe my earn rate would go up but so too would my Std Dev if I were able to put in more hours on the weekends and play more during evenings.

12-23-2015, 07:29 PM   #12261
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge If I just did it right, I came back with a standard deviation of \$301.60 per hour for my last 1250 hours. That yields a CI of +/- \$8.53 centered on my achieved WR of \$20.70 for that sample, or 95% confidence of \$12.17 to \$29.23. Look right? It basically makes sense to me, as my EV adjusted WR is right near the top of that range.

Are you playing 1/3 mostly?

If it is 1/2 - I think that would sound high.

12-23-2015, 07:33 PM   #12262
mpethybridge
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! Are you playing 1/3 mostly? If it is 1/2 - I think that would sound high.
It's all 1/2; I pulled out the 1/3.

I have since gone back and rechecked it, and it seems to be correct.

 12-23-2015, 07:36 PM #12263 t_roy veteran   Join Date: May 2010 Location: My PGC Posts: 2,123 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Don't know if anyone here is a stats genius, but there must be some type of calc to incorporate the knowledge that we are not making above a certain amount (say 15bbs). Seems that this would lower the CI for a lot of people. Anyone know how to some fancy stuff like that?
 12-23-2015, 08:25 PM #12264 Sneaky Pete banned   Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances What if your graph looks like a family of giraffes?
12-23-2015, 10:35 PM   #12265
zoltan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bwslim69 Bemoreboring.gif
Eatsomemoregruyerelilfatty.gfy

Quote:
 Originally Posted by t_roy Don't know if anyone here is a stats genius, but there must be some type of calc to incorporate the knowledge that we are not making above a certain amount (say 15bbs). Seems that this would lower the CI for a lot of people. Anyone know how to some fancy stuff like that?
Not quite sure what you're trying to get at here. You can't (statistically) KNOW you're capped at some wr, even though there's always some probability you're below it.

You could do a 95, 96,97, etc ci to see the likelihood of e.g. 15bb being a likely cap.

I suppose there should be a way to calculate a ci given an upper limit. Don't think it would affect the lower end though.

 12-23-2015, 10:52 PM #12266 Donat3llo Faster Than Ski Patrol     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Riding your coattails, bruh! Posts: 22,032 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Stfu Zoltan!
12-24-2015, 12:15 AM   #12267

Join Date: Jun 2014
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.
My standard deviation over 958 hours of 1/2 is 34.44bb per hour.

No idea how to put that number in context. High? Low?

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12-24-2015, 01:09 AM   #12268
t_roy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by zoltan Not quite sure what you're trying to get at here. You can't (statistically) KNOW you're capped at some wr, even though there's always some probability you're below it. You could do a 95, 96,97, etc ci to see the likelihood of e.g. 15bb being a likely cap. I suppose there should be a way to calculate a ci given an upper limit. Don't think it would affect the lower end though.
We can't statistically know we are capped, but we can intellectually know. It would have to effect the lower limit. Say you play an hour of 1/2, and you estimate your SD at \$200/hr. You run like god and win \$1000 per hour. Well your 99% confidence interval is going to be like \$400-1600 per hour. If we say we are realistically capped at \$20 per hour, we should be able to see that we might well be a loser in the game. Our lower interval should not be \$20, but actually well into the negative. That's my understanding anyway.

12-24-2015, 03:09 AM   #12269
Dizzyqtp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but... I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol? G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG
No worries, that's mostly why I asked. My range seemed so wide it seemed useless to calculate. Was curious around what amount of hours the range began to tighten to give you a better indication of your win rate.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
I use Pokercharts.com to track my sessions, I am using the Win Rate Std Dev they calculate for me. How would I go about calculating it on my own/checking if they calculate it correctly?

12-24-2015, 09:40 AM   #12270
zoltan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by t_roy We can't statistically know we are capped, but we can intellectually know. It would have to effect the lower limit. Say you play an hour of 1/2, and you estimate your SD at \$200/hr. You run like god and win \$1000 per hour. Well your 99% confidence interval is going to be like \$400-1600 per hour. If we say we are realistically capped at \$20 per hour, we should be able to see that we might well be a loser in the game. Our lower interval should not be \$20, but actually well into the negative. That's my understanding anyway.
Oh look who's a bayesian now!

The thing is, when we use CI, we're using a frequentist worldview... Which means we're naive to all information that might be available. Which means there's no theoretical cap on wr. (absurd, but this is the frequentist approach taught in stats 101.)

Sometimes (not always) CI and credible interval converge (ie when sampling distribution is normally distributed). I sort of doubt that's the case very often though.

Bip!, what's your take on how the typical players results are distributed?

12-24-2015, 10:18 AM   #12271
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.
This result is very surprising to me, as I think my biggest leak is over aggression, particularly post flop.

I'm admittedly quite tight PF, but I play big pots with TPTK pretty often, since I play in games where Vs will often call three streets with TPmehK. Often I value-cut myself against their weird 2p hands that they never raise. While I am confident I more than make up for it in value, I would expect this to make for a pretty high standard dev.

Also, bip!'s observation of my playing style might be a bit off, based on the fact that when we played together I had a known maniac on my immediate right, so I adjusted by calling down a lot to keep his range wide and let him do the betting for me while he imagined FE.

 12-24-2015, 12:37 PM #12272 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,673 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances So I talked to a couple of other players in my game about their stdev last night. They are both using poker journal and it seems poker journal spits out an errant number in their cases. More work to do - I guess they have to pay \$4.99 to export the data and work in excel - TBD if all the poker journal numbers are mis reported low.
12-24-2015, 12:39 PM   #12273
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick This result is very surprising to me, as I think my biggest leak is over aggression, particularly post flop. I'm admittedly quite tight PF, but I play big pots with TPTK pretty often, since I play in games where Vs will often call three streets with TPmehK. Often I value-cut myself against their weird 2p hands that they never raise. While I am confident I more than make up for it in value, I would expect this to make for a pretty high standard dev. Also, bip!'s observation of my playing style might be a bit off, based on the fact that when we played together I had a known maniac on my immediate right, so I adjusted by calling down a lot to keep his range wide and let him do the betting for me while he imagined FE.

. I did not mean nitty in a bad way - more TAG which is top strat for LLSNL. Also, are you using poker journal?

Anyone who uses the app and has an excel sheet with the same records can confirm my suspicion about a miscalculation.

 12-24-2015, 01:35 PM #12274 Sneaky Pete banned   Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Why don't you post this very question in poker journal thread on 2+2.
12-24-2015, 01:57 PM   #12275
bip!
Slow Pony

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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete Why don't you post this very question in poker journal thread on 2+2.

Well - my interest was more in helping people ITT calculate their poker results, not really going for improving someone else's commercial software.

/ I might be wrong and the app may be right. Also high potential for garbage in = garbage out, PEBKAC, etc.

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