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Old 12-21-2015, 01:30 AM   #12201
t_roy
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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
That's not a geographic thing, it's a new vs old thing. I guess they're related. Maryland doesn't have pros living there yet, LV is saturated with pros and decent rec players. If there's an opportunity for profit people will enter the market until it goes from everybody profiting to everyone breaking even, and then the entrance into the market will stop. There hasn't been enough time for people to enter in ML yet.

I don't particularly like Miller's articles, but I hear guys categorized as winning a ton of small pots or winning a few big pots. It is possible to do both.
Not sure this is fully true. Based on what I've heard from other areas, MDL isn't abnormal at this point (first year it was). I think Vegas is the real exception. It became a place for poker enthusiasts to go, and just created a total nit fest. Also cost of living and rake is cheaper than maybe any other major poker market. Makes things more pro infested as you don't need to win as much to stay afloat.
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Old 12-21-2015, 02:08 AM   #12202
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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Not sure this is fully true. Based on what I've heard from other areas, MDL isn't abnormal at this point (first year it was). I think Vegas is the real exception. It became a place for poker enthusiasts to go, and just created a total nit fest. Also cost of living and rake is cheaper than maybe any other major poker market. Makes things more pro infested as you don't need to win as much to stay afloat.
And rakeback.
Youre basically freerolling food.

YGO I feel you. Good luck in your decision
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Old 12-21-2015, 08:35 PM   #12203
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Hi guys just started playing live full time $2/$5 this past week. I Have been playing (seriously) 100hrs per month for the past 4 months and this is something I've wanted to do for some time now. Just wanted to post my graph/stats to get some feedback on how sustainable my w/r is and/or what should I be aiming for. Appreciate all replies thanks in advance!

Note: the first graph/stats is a mixture of $1/$2 home games $2/$3 casino & 2$/$5. The second graph/stats is solely $2/$5.







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Old 12-21-2015, 08:45 PM   #12204
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^ Other players at the same limits have sustained similar winrates over large sample sizes but your sample size size is too small to know whether or not your winrates are sustainable for you. You'll probably need around 1k hours minimum to get a rough idea of your own winrate. Gl
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Old 12-21-2015, 08:48 PM   #12205
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Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
Hi guys just started playing live full time $2/$5 this past week. I Have been playing (seriously) 100hrs per month for the past 4 months and this is something I've wanted to do for some time now. Just wanted to post my graph/stats to get some feedback on how sustainable my w/r is and/or what should I be aiming for. Appreciate all replies thanks in advance!

Note: the first graph/stats is a mixture of $1/$2 home games $2/$3 casino & 2$/$5. The second graph/stats is solely $2/$5.







55/hour isn't outlandish, but be honest with yourself, are you one of the best players in the room? Are you consistently the best or maybe 2nd best player at the table? If yes, there is a chance that could be sustainable. If no, then maybe you're just on a heater and will slow down eventually. Regardless, it's a couple of nice graphs, so congrats.

Out of curiosity, what app is that, I like the look of it. How do you find the interface? Would you recommend it?
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Old 12-21-2015, 08:55 PM   #12206
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Without much table selection (there's only ever 2/3 tables of $2/$5 running during weekdays) I'm easily top a 3 player in any given line up. The app is called "Run Good" it's for iPhone only though... I definitely recommend it! It has some really good features and the graph/stats layout are very clear and easy to understand.
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Old 12-21-2015, 09:04 PM   #12207
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My guess would be you settle in at 4-6 BB/hr at 2/5
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Old 12-21-2015, 11:32 PM   #12208
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10bbs/hr is definitely sustainable at 500nl and under.


Im currently at 11bbs/hr with over 1k hours (for 500nl)

Anything higher than 500nl however, and your winrate will start to drop as you begin to face better players and less whales/stations

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 12-21-2015 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:13 AM   #12209
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What do you think contributed to the one massive 50 hr upswing sandwiched between two 175 hr break-even stretches?

Run Good is a good app. I use it as well.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:44 AM   #12210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
10bbs/hr is definitely sustainable at 500nl and under.


Im currently at 11bbs/hr with over 1k hours (for 500nl)

Anything higher than 500nl however, and your winrate will start to drop as you begin to face better players and less whales/stations

Lots of inaccuracies ^

The game with the least % of players winning 10bb/hr is 1/2 (1/3) 100bb cap.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:47 AM   #12211
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Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
Without much table selection (there's only ever 2/3 tables of $2/$5 running during weekdays) I'm easily top a 3 player in any given line up.
Being third best in a game probably means you are barely break even. Sorry, but you need a reality check. You are running like god and are not ready for this yet. Those win rates are not nearly sustainable based on the little info you have given about your game. If you are going to make it work, you need to be working your ass off. You could quite easily be making under $10/hour long term.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:09 AM   #12212
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He didn't say anything about % of winning players, just that it's easier to have a 10bb winrate at lower stakes, which is usually going to be the case. A large reason that it's easier to have a bigger winrate at lower stakes is because a higher % players are losing.

Edit: Also I find it unlikely that 1/3 has the fewest number of 10bb winners. My guess is that higher stakes the % is 0.

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 12-22-2015 at 01:16 AM.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:15 AM   #12213
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Being third best in a game probably means you are barely break even. Sorry, but you need a reality check. You are running like god and are not ready for this yet. Those win rates are not nearly sustainable based on the little info you have given about your game. If you are going to make it work, you need to be working your ass off. You could quite easily be making under $10/hour long term.

We play 10 handed, so me being on average 1st-3rd best player at the table means I'm running over 70% of the field regularly. I've had 1 extended BE stretch/downswing followed by a huge upswing, then a continued breakeven month. Your comment about me "running like god" is both laughable & pathetic...
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:36 AM   #12214
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To be fair, his ID is pipedreamer101.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:40 AM   #12215
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Dreamer, have you noted the hourly stddev for your sample and understand how to adjust that to obtain a theoretical 95% confidence interval on your results?
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:40 AM   #12216
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Lots of inaccuracies ^

The game with the least % of players winning 10bb/hr is 1/2 (1/3) 100bb cap.
i never claimed 1/2 had the highest % of winning players, just that llsnl (500nl and lower) are the easiest games to make 10bb an hour in.
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Old 12-22-2015, 10:51 AM   #12217
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Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
We play 10 handed, so me being on average 1st-3rd best player at the table means I'm running over 70% of the field regularly. I've had 1 extended BE stretch/downswing followed by a huge upswing, then a continued breakeven month. Your comment about me "running like god" is both laughable & pathetic...
Much anger I sense in this one.

10bbs an hour is a top 1-2% winrate dude. You are in for a rude awakening.
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Old 12-22-2015, 10:57 AM   #12218
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Old 12-22-2015, 11:16 AM   #12219
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10bbs an hour is a top 1-2% winrate dude. You are in for a rude awakening.
t_roy, Do you play in Vegas where it's harder to grind it out? I don't do 10bbs+ but I know 3 guys who claim they do. 1 says $26 & the other $29 over 1200 hrs this year. Think they're fibbin'?

Max buy-in @ 1/2 in this area's casinos is $300.00. MDL 1/2 & Horseshoe 1/3 both, as well as the ones in Philly.
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Old 12-22-2015, 11:17 AM   #12220
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Much anger I sense in this one.

10bbs an hour is a top 1-2% winrate dude. You are in for a rude awakening.
Over that past ~900 hours I'm a little over 9bb per hour at 1/2 300 cap buy in games. Have a few leaks that could push those numbers up a bit. I think crushers in the games I play could attain 12-15bb per hour.

1-2% winning with this rate in the small games is probably accurate. My situation is most likely rare. Middle aged guy with good career making more than 5-10 crushers could only dream of. I stay with 1/2 because of no stress fun. Sometimes I jump into 2-5 and do well, but don't have as much fun.

Most people beating 1/2 at a similar rate most likely wouldn't stay at that level as long as I have.



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Last edited by ZippyThePinhead; 12-22-2015 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 12-22-2015, 11:45 AM   #12221
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Another question about rake and possible Winrate. I live in Europe, and most games have horrible rake structure. At my current casino they spread 3 games:

1) a 2/2 with min buy in 50 and max 175. Rake is 10% cap 10€. Players are bad but I'm pretty sure this game is not beatable in the long run.

2) a 2/4 with min buyin 200 and max 1000. Rake is 5% cap 20€. Players are a little better, more weak tight opponent and some breakeven regs. Pheraps 1-2 are decent. Average stack size is 500. Don't know If this game is beatable in the long run for a decent amount (I see decent as 25€+/hour)

3) a 5/5 game with minimum 250 and maximum 2500. Rake is 5% cap 25€. Players pool is a lot better than the other 2 games. Always 4 decent regs, 1 or 2 fishes and rest typically weak tight. Average buy in is 700-800. I'm not rolled for this one but I think the 2/4 is more beatable that this one.


I have started playing in another casino a few weeks ago because I wanted to find better games where I can play. I have find a curious Game:

A 2,5/2,5 game min buy in 100 max unlimitied. Average stack is 400-500. Players pool is good for me: 1/2 decent regs and always 3-4 Big whales that love to stick with top pair hands. 1 or 2 love drinking and were always semidrunk when I was playing. The rake structure is interessant:
Under 50€ they don't take rake from the pot.
From 50 to 125€ they take 5€
From 125 to 200€ they take 7,5€
From 200 to 300€ they take 10€
From 300 to 400€ they take 12,5€
From 400 to 500€ they take 15€
From 500 to 1000€ they take 20€
1000€+ they take 25€

I think this game is more beatable than the other 3 due to better players pool and lower % of rake. But I'm not a math wizard and can't figure it. What game should I play?
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Old 12-22-2015, 11:57 AM   #12222
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t_roy, Do you play in Vegas where it's harder to grind it out? I don't do 10bbs+ but I know 3 guys who claim they do. 1 says $26 & the other $29 over 1200 hrs this year. Think they're fibbin'?

Max buy-in @ 1/2 in this area's casinos is $300.00. MDL 1/2 & Horseshoe 1/3 both, as well as the ones in Philly.
I play at MDL. I don't know if the guys are lying. The 1/2 pool in this area is pretty big, so I'm sure there are a decent number of people over 10bbs. I would be skeptical of their claims if they are playing for profit and haven't moved up yet though. I know of multiple people that don't record bad sessions where they go on tilt.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:14 PM   #12223
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I went from 15+ BB/hr at 1/2 to ~5.5 BB/hr at 2/5 at my reg/pro grinder infested local casino. Sample size is a meaningless 260 hours at 2/5 but I'm still hoping for the ol' "mean reversion" to kick in.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:37 PM   #12224
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I know I posted this recently, but I'll do again quickly: my winrate over my past 821 hours is 1/3rd of what it was in the first 1,774 hours. Sure, I've broken out those rates at a particular spot which shows the greatest difference, but the overall point is:

1000 hours? Lol sample size, imo.

Gaddanotherzeroandthenmaybeyou'llstartgettingabett eridea,imoG
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:49 PM   #12225
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I play at MDL. I don't know if the guys are lying. The 1/2 pool in this area is pretty big, so I'm sure there are a decent number of people over 10bbs. I would be skeptical of their claims if they are playing for profit and haven't moved up yet though. I know of multiple people that don't record bad sessions where they go on tilt.
About 70% of my sessions are at mdl. 10bbs\hour at 1/2 is definitely not rocket science in that player pool.

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