My guess would be you settle in at 4-6 BB/hr at 2/5

10bbs/hr is definitely sustainable at 500nl and under.


Im currently at 11bbs/hr with over 1k hours (for 500nl)

Anything higher than 500nl however, and your winrate will start to drop as you begin to face better players and less whales/stations

What do you think contributed to the one massive 50 hr upswing sandwiched between two 175 hr break-even stretches?

Run Good is a good app. I use it as well.

Lots of inaccuracies ^

The game with the least % of players winning 10bb/hr is 1/2 (1/3) 100bb cap.

Being third best in a game probably means you are barely break even. Sorry, but you need a reality check. You are running like god and are not ready for this yet. Those win rates are not nearly sustainable based on the little info you have given about your game. If you are going to make it work, you need to be working your ass off. You could quite easily be making under $10/hour long term.

He didn't say anything about % of winning players, just that it's easier to have a 10bb winrate at lower stakes, which is usually going to be the case. A large reason that it's easier to have a bigger winrate at lower stakes is because a higher % players are losing.

Edit: Also I find it unlikely that 1/3 has the fewest number of 10bb winners. My guess is that higher stakes the % is 0.

We play 10 handed, so me being on average 1st-3rd best player at the table means I'm running over 70% of the field regularly. I've had 1 extended BE stretch/downswing followed by a huge upswing, then a continued breakeven month. Your comment about me "running like god" is both laughable & pathetic...

To be fair, his ID is pipedreamer101.

Dreamer, have you noted the hourly stddev for your sample and understand how to adjust that to obtain a theoretical 95% confidence interval on your results?

i never claimed 1/2 had the highest % of winning players, just that llsnl (500nl and lower) are the easiest games to make 10bb an hour in.

Much anger I sense in this one.

10bbs an hour is a top 1-2% winrate dude. You are in for a rude awakening.

*

t_roy, Do you play in Vegas where it's harder to grind it out? I don't do 10bbs+ but I know 3 guys who claim they do. 1 says $26 & the other $29 over 1200 hrs this year. Think they're fibbin'?

Max buy-in @ 1/2 in this area's casinos is $300.00. MDL 1/2 & Horseshoe 1/3 both, as well as the ones in Philly.

Over that past ~900 hours I'm a little over 9bb per hour at 1/2 300 cap buy in games. Have a few leaks that could push those numbers up a bit. I think crushers in the games I play could attain 12-15bb per hour.

1-2% winning with this rate in the small games is probably accurate. My situation is most likely rare. Middle aged guy with good career making more than 5-10 crushers could only dream of. I stay with 1/2 because of no stress fun. Sometimes I jump into 2-5 and do well, but don't have as much fun.

Most people beating 1/2 at a similar rate most likely wouldn't stay at that level as long as I have.



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Another question about rake and possible Winrate. I live in Europe, and most games have horrible rake structure. At my current casino they spread 3 games:

1) a 2/2 with min buy in 50 and max 175. Rake is 10% cap 10€. Players are bad but I'm pretty sure this game is not beatable in the long run.

2) a 2/4 with min buyin 200 and max 1000. Rake is 5% cap 20€. Players are a little better, more weak tight opponent and some breakeven regs. Pheraps 1-2 are decent. Average stack size is 500. Don't know If this game is beatable in the long run for a decent amount (I see decent as 25€+/hour)

3) a 5/5 game with minimum 250 and maximum 2500. Rake is 5% cap 25€. Players pool is a lot better than the other 2 games. Always 4 decent regs, 1 or 2 fishes and rest typically weak tight. Average buy in is 700-800. I'm not rolled for this one but I think the 2/4 is more beatable that this one.


I have started playing in another casino a few weeks ago because I wanted to find better games where I can play. I have find a curious Game:

A 2,5/2,5 game min buy in 100 max unlimitied. Average stack is 400-500. Players pool is good for me: 1/2 decent regs and always 3-4 Big whales that love to stick with top pair hands. 1 or 2 love drinking and were always semidrunk when I was playing. The rake structure is interessant:
Under 50€ they don't take rake from the pot.
From 50 to 125€ they take 5€
From 125 to 200€ they take 7,5€
From 200 to 300€ they take 10€
From 300 to 400€ they take 12,5€
From 400 to 500€ they take 15€
From 500 to 1000€ they take 20€
1000€+ they take 25€

I think this game is more beatable than the other 3 due to better players pool and lower % of rake. But I'm not a math wizard and can't figure it. What game should I play?

I play at MDL. I don't know if the guys are lying. The 1/2 pool in this area is pretty big, so I'm sure there are a decent number of people over 10bbs. I would be skeptical of their claims if they are playing for profit and haven't moved up yet though. I know of multiple people that don't record bad sessions where they go on tilt.

I went from 15+ BB/hr at 1/2 to ~5.5 BB/hr at 2/5 at my reg/pro grinder infested local casino. Sample size is a meaningless 260 hours at 2/5 but I'm still hoping for the ol' "mean reversion" to kick in.

I know I posted this recently, but I'll do again quickly: my winrate over my past 821 hours is 1/3rd of what it was in the first 1,774 hours. Sure, I've broken out those rates at a particular spot which shows the greatest difference, but the overall point is:

1000 hours? Lol sample size, imo.

Gaddanotherzeroandthenmaybeyou'llstartgettingabett eridea,imoG

About 70% of my sessions are at mdl. 10bbs\hour at 1/2 is definitely not rocket science in that player pool.

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1000 hrs is approximately 30000 hands.

I was 8.2BB/100 winner over 94,000 hands online (micros). Last 7,200 hands I am running -17BB/100, and I have improved immensely.

It would take years to ever find a true winrate, for rec player like us. It is fun to track. But true winrate live is almost laughable. Live players will never understand it until they see 100k hands.

Pipedreamer, your sample is painfully small. You can deduce nothing from it other than, at this moment you are crushing.

Replace "years" with "likely several lifetimes" (especially when dealing with us rec players who only play 500 hours = ~15,000 hands / year) and I think you might be spot on.

A big winrate / lossrate probably gives a decent indication if we're a winning / losing player in our live game (although lol at idea our game will remain the same over time), but yeah, reading much more than that into winrates is probably lol.

Gcuebip!andhisstandarddeviationstufftoattempttomak eusfeelbetterG

NSFW

[/spoiler]

I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour

And, since there are multiple people who don't record those type sessions, there has to be multiple people who edit their sessions, so that their loss is not as much as it really was.

I could probably start editing losing sessions right now, cutting the amount I lost in half, & in an hour have a $21 WR for the year.

yes