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Old 12-15-2015, 12:25 AM   #12126
CallMeVernon
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Is it possible that Miller's opening ranges are one massive level intended to open up the games and encourage people to play incorrectly against his opening ranges?
I've been suspicious that Ed Miller might be leveling his readers for an extremely long time.
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Old 12-15-2015, 12:31 AM   #12127
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

AJo dominates a lot of hands in typical live NLHE calling ranges. A2s never dominates anything and can be dominated easily. This allows AJo to get a lot of thick value from weaker TPs on 30% of flops. Meanwhile, A2s has to worry about RIO on the 15% of flops where it is lucky to flop TPNK.

As far as playability, AJo often has 2 over cards to the board. It can even flop 8-out straight draws on flops like QT8 or QT9. A2s can NEVER flop an 8-out straight draw. AJo straight draws are always to the nuts while the A2s gutters are always to the second or 3rd nuts. Just as importantly, AJo flopped nut straight will cooler J9 second nut straight on KQT flop. Meanwhile, A2s will get coolered by 76s on 543 flop.

Finally, AJ-high is much more likely to win at showdown than A2-high.
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Old 12-15-2015, 12:36 AM   #12128
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Please enlighten us how AJo has more playability than A2s
Please enlighten us how the playability of A2s matters more than the generally more profitable AJo.
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Old 12-15-2015, 12:38 AM   #12129
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Please enlighten us how the playability of A2s matters more than the generally more profitable AJo.
Sooted
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Old 12-15-2015, 12:54 AM   #12130
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I have played a fair amount of poker with Mr miller in las vegas and I promise you all that those are NOT his hand ranges. He plays tight as foook from EP
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Old 12-15-2015, 01:03 AM   #12131
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I've been suspicious that Ed Miller might be leveling his readers for an extremely long time.
This is from his "Poker's 1%" book:

It's a 2/5 game with 1k effective stacks.
You open to $15 from the CO with A4
The SB raises to $55, the BB folds & you call.

There's $115 in the pot & $945 behind.

The flop comes: 853

The SB bets $70, you min-raise to $140, the SB calls.

$395 in the pot and $805 behind.

Turn: 853T

SB checks, you bet $270 & the SB calls.

$935 in the pot & $535 behind.

River: 853TQc

You've made your nut flush but that was Plan D!
Plan A was to win the pot with a blind steal.
Plan B was to win the pot on this favorable flop
Plan C was to win the pot on the turn with a fairly massive bet.

When none of that worked, Plan D was put into play: Suckout.

"If you don't play hands like the above, then you're doing it all wrong." - Ed Miller.

He failed to mention Plan E - Rebuy.
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Old 12-15-2015, 02:59 AM   #12132
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I have played a fair amount of poker with Mr miller in las vegas and I promise you all that those are NOT his hand ranges. He plays tight as foook from EP
That is interesting... Some super meta play from miller perhaps.
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Old 12-15-2015, 03:15 AM   #12133
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
This is from his "Poker's 1%" book:

It's a 2/5 game with 1k effective stacks.
You open to $15 from the CO with A4
The SB raises to $55, the BB folds & you call.

There's $115 in the pot & $945 behind.

The flop comes: 853

The SB bets $70, you min-raise to $140, the SB calls.

$395 in the pot and $805 behind.

Turn: 853T

SB checks, you bet $270 & the SB calls.

$935 in the pot & $535 behind.

River: 853TQc

You've made your nut flush but that was Plan D!
Plan A was to win the pot with a blind steal.
Plan B was to win the pot on this favorable flop
Plan C was to win the pot on the turn with a fairly massive bet.

When none of that worked, Plan D was put into play: Suckout.

"If you don't play hands like the above, then you're doing it all wrong." - Ed Miller.

He failed to mention Plan E - Rebuy.
Poker 1% is a higher level book aimed to examine beyond ABC level 1 poker.

Example makes sense, though obviously image and other elements also have to align.

You're mixing examples of his 1% book with his other "poker for dummies" book...

I would rate his latest book "the Course" a rather crappy grade, but 1% was certainly eye opening in ways beyond examples in his book, a decent, though not direct, intro to Janda.

IMO, your questions are more less a reflection of your ability as a reader, not so much of the writer.

And if you really have issues with examples in his book, you should post them in the right venue, not mixing them inappropriately in this thread.
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Old 12-15-2015, 05:43 AM   #12134
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.
I know you played a lot of $1/$2 and I know where you play. I'm not sure if you really believe what you are saying or not.

I disagree with you and I think it's too high. Perhaps if you ran pure and never made a single mistake you could average $1,000/week or $25/hr.

Or if you played 12-hour sessions on Friday and Saturday night there and minimized your weeknight sessions, perhaps it becomes more feasible.

I agree that the games are sickeningly great there and after moving up just a little, I find $1/$2 to be a pretty face-up game a lot of the time.
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:02 AM   #12135
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
I know you played a lot of $1/$2 and I know where you play. I'm not sure if you really believe what you are saying or not.

I disagree with you and I think it's too high. Perhaps if you ran pure and never made a single mistake you could average $1,000/week or $25/hr.

Or if you played 12-hour sessions on Friday and Saturday night there and minimized your weeknight sessions, perhaps it becomes more feasible.

I agree that the games are sickeningly great there and after moving up just a little, I find $1/$2 to be a pretty face-up game a lot of the time.
So you don't think you leave 15 an hour on the tables every time you play? I'm certain I leave a load more than that
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:10 AM   #12136
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So you don't think you leave 15 an hour on the tables every time you play? I'm certain I leave a load more than that
If you are leaving it on the table, then that's what I'm talking about: Making mistakes, etc., that ultimately keep your WR lower than what you THINK it could possibly be.
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:13 AM   #12137
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

so chip you clearly think the cap of a w/r at 1/2 is under 12.5 bb/hr. What do you think the cap is?

Also what do you think the cap is on 2/5?
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:17 AM   #12138
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I know I am going to lose this argument, but ...

$1/$2 is probably $17-$20

$2/$5 is $35-$40

A player who can sit there and play perfectly - absolutely perfectly - can do better. But I have yet to meet a human who can. And even when you play perfectly, you still have to deal with variance.

I just don't want people who have a job making $30K a year to come in here and think, 'Yeah, $50K a year is easy at $1/$2.' I want them to realize it's a crapload tougher than Buz indicated.
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:21 AM   #12139
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Also, my numbers are based on playing 40 hours a week, 8 hours a day, 5 days a week and that means you aren't always going to be there playing 40 prime hours every week.
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Old 12-15-2015, 06:23 AM   #12140
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Biggest challenge for a good player to beat 1/2 for 25+ over a year would be maintaining discipline and focus
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Old 12-15-2015, 07:13 AM   #12141
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Biggest challenge for a good player to beat 1/2 for 25+ over a year would be maintaining discipline and focus
Not only that, I would think you would have to play 6pm -2am so that you could play during prime time hours?

What hours of the day do you play Kelly?
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Old 12-15-2015, 07:16 AM   #12142
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Not only that, I would think you would have to play 6pm -2am so that you could play during prime time hours?
2-11pm with an hour for breaks. Ez game and up to get the kids to school and do some exercise
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Old 12-15-2015, 07:17 AM   #12143
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Not only that, I would think you would have to play 6pm -2am so that you could play during prime time hours?

What hours of the day do you play Kelly?
I play even later than that.
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Old 12-15-2015, 08:24 AM   #12144
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

But who the **** wants to play poker for 40hrs a week, settle for a life of poverty. **** that.
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Old 12-15-2015, 08:46 AM   #12145
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50k ain't ****
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Old 12-15-2015, 01:03 PM   #12146
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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
$1/$2 is probably $17-$20

$2/$5 is $35-$40
For 99% of players that play in 100bb cap game, you are probably right.

I haven't ran into a lot of 1%'er myself .
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Old 12-15-2015, 08:40 PM   #12147
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First year of NLHE after moving to an area that doesn't spread LHE. Can you spot when I adjusted some of my medication and stopped playing after work when i was tired? Nice to end the year on a hot streak after breaking even for so many hands.




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Old 12-15-2015, 09:09 PM   #12148
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I should preface my room is a $300 max 1/2 with ample game selection.

The 2/5 is another story: Reg City
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Old 12-15-2015, 09:16 PM   #12149
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I should preface my room is a $300 max 1/2 with ample game selection.

The 2/5 is another story: Reg City
Do you think you are going to continue playing 2/5? or move back to 1/3 or 1/2?

I sat at 2/5 for a short session again last week a lost a 200BB BI, but got my money in 2:1 on a flip with what I thought was some lolFE (0/5 at 2/5 flips so far ) and the table seemed pretty fishy, as was the last one I played at.

I was hoping to move to 2/5 soon, but have been on the bad side of variance there so far - curious if you think the 1/2 or 1/3 games are more profitable, as I have had a lot of success there as well.
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Old 12-15-2015, 09:25 PM   #12150
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^ my previous post about 50k/year being doable at 1/2 was just a hypothetical proof of concept. I have no intention of actually doing it as I am sure I would want to blow my brains out 2-3 months in.

If I were going to grind full-time, it would be a combination of 1/3 and 2/5 with occasional 10/10 shots as the BR/game selection allowed.

My time is probably split 70/30 between 2/5 and 1/3 but I think it would serve me well to get that a little closer to 50/50. I occasionally sit down in less than ideal 2/5 games.

I continue to believe 1/3 is the best kept secret for the majority of players. 1/2 competition with a $500 max buyin. You do the math.
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