Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-29-2015, 10:15 AM   #11901
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,144
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
I was playing 2/5 at the Wynn a year ago severely under rolled. I bought in for 1k and got in 300 preflop then 700 on the flop vs an ATC fish. Flop Kxx. River Q.


It set me back 8 months after it was all said and done
7 out of 10, good effort
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 11:45 AM   #11902
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
Everyone should be ready for three losing months and still have to meet their monthly nut
I could still make my 'monthly nut' as it's not the primary source of my income & I'm probably close to being 'over-rolled' for 1/2 NL in the games I play in. However, what it would do to my WR would send me str8 to the doc for some anti-depressants!
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 12:13 PM   #11903
mikko
veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,863
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Funny, I use to tell everyone. If you bust a 2k bankroll at 1/2, you should quit and fined a new hobby.

Then in March I went on $1900 downswing, and was actually over 2 k mark in the next session before pulling out of it. Granted, the game plays bigger than most 1/3 games.

But 4k, in a standard 1/2 game (100 BB buy-in). Is more than enough. If you lose 2k. You should probably go do something else with the other 2k.

I wouldn't wait till first off year either. Just start playing when you have a buy-in. Add to your bankroll as money comes available.
^^^lol^^^

Lost $1300 in 1 hr. $900 in 1 orbit last night. When it become standard to get 250 BB in on flush draw? To call with gutter ball on paired boards?
mikko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 02:18 PM   #11904
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
^ Most people think the Giants are winning because of Coughlin not in spite of him. People are morons. Create your job instead of applying to one.
The notion of someone who's appealed to the idea of grinding 1/2 full-time should start his own business is ridiculous.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 02:31 PM   #11905
RelentlessDoubt
grinder
 
RelentlessDoubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 689
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
I was playing 2/5 at the Wynn a year ago severely under rolled. I bought in for 1k and got in 300 preflop then 700 on the flop vs an ATC fish. Flop Kxx. River Q.


It set me back 8 months after it was all said and done
I had AKs vs his QQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Couldn't your parents just give you money?
Surprisingly it's becoming more difficult to get money from my parents the older I get
RelentlessDoubt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 02:33 PM   #11906
RelentlessDoubt
grinder
 
RelentlessDoubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 689
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I could still make my 'monthly nut' as it's not the primary source of my income & I'm probably close to being 'over-rolled' for 1/2 NL in the games I play in. However, what it would do to my WR would send me str8 to the doc for some anti-depressants!
Your win rate has zero effect on your future results, I don't know why you would be concerned about it moving forward, especially over a small sample size. Everyone is going to lose. You will get AA ten times and get it cracked each time...why play if losing five buyins will really affect you?
RelentlessDoubt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 03:08 PM   #11907
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
@Johnny - if I remember correctly from a thread awhile ago, we play at the same casino (won't post which one, not sure if you're opposed to posting where you play) & I am curious about your opinion as far as winrates and moving from 1/2 to 2/5 and when you decided to make the switch.

So I'm curious after how many hours/what bankroll size/what level of profit did you book at 1/2 to decide to move onto primarily playing 2/5 and how the switch has gone for you so far.

I have also considered moving to 1/3, but there always seems to be a list/not many tables and my logic has been that you miss out on a lot of the huge huge fish that only play 1/2. I have only played the 1/3 game once - ran really bad and lost like 7/800 (I think this is just included in my 1/2 stats as I switched over to 1/2 that session) and haven't tried it again.

My original plan was to play 1/2 until I booked 20K in profit, and then try and transition to playing 2/5 full-time, but was curious how you did it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
The games play different enough that I don't think there is a logical minimum number of hours before you move up. You need the bankroll. You need the psychological bankroll. You need to be good enough at the pokerz.

I'd recommend buying in for 100bb until you believe that you are a winning player at that level.

I've suggested in the past that the move from 1-2 or 1-3 to 2-5 is a challenging difference in many venues, but many seem to disagree with that opinion. (I've played both in many different casinos, including yours)
Sorry for the late reply, Dizzy. My path involved one step forward and two steps back before moving forward again.

I logged about 300 hours at 1/2 in 2014, but I was mostly playing drunk "for fun." I ran a $2000 roll up to $4000 and then proceeded to lose $5000 over a very short period of time. I took a few months off to save up another roll, read some books and attempted to plug some leaks. I still drink when I play now, though nowhere close to the extent of before.

Anyway, fast forward to Feb. 2015 -- I started grinding 1/2 hard playing 3-4x a week. My original goal was to log 1000 hours before moving up to 2/5. It sounded like such a far off goal but I thought the experience would be well worth it. I had a goal of playing 2/5 by the end of 2015 but I wasn't going to play 2/5 until I thought I was ready. I logged about 400 hours of 1/2 at $30/hr before I started transitioning over to 1/3 and then 2/5.

I posted in this thread a lot along the way and people told me I should start shot taking when my BR was around $10,000, but I will agree with suited fours that there is a significant transition between 1/2 and 2/5 at the room you play at. I was under the impression 2/5 was going to be a joke just like 1/2 (and maybe it is at other poker rooms), but I would be prepared for a steep learning curve.

240 hours logged at 2/5 now and my win-rate has just recently moved past my 1/2 hourly. My goal for 2016 is going to be a $50+/hr at 2/5 and be playing 5/T or 10/10 once a week if the game is good.

tldr

1) Experience is invaluable at 1/2

2) 1/3 is a great transition game and I would make that your primary game

3) 2/5 is tough. Your hourly will likely suffer and you will experience some massive swings that make you question whether it's all worth it -- but it is
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 04:30 PM   #11908
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,384
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Sorry for the late reply, Dizzy. My path involved one step forward and two steps back before moving forward again.

I logged about 300 hours at 1/2 in 2014, but I was mostly playing drunk "for fun." I ran a $2000 roll up to $4000 and then proceeded to lose $5000 over a very short period of time. I took a few months off to save up another roll, read some books and attempted to plug some leaks. I still drink when I play now, though nowhere close to the extent of before.

Anyway, fast forward to Feb. 2015 -- I started grinding 1/2 hard playing 3-4x a week. My original goal was to log 1000 hours before moving up to 2/5. It sounded like such a far off goal but I thought the experience would be well worth it. I had a goal of playing 2/5 by the end of 2015 but I wasn't going to play 2/5 until I thought I was ready. I logged about 400 hours of 1/2 at $30/hr before I started transitioning over to 1/3 and then 2/5.

I posted in this thread a lot along the way and people told me I should start shot taking when my BR was around $10,000, but I will agree with suited fours that there is a significant transition between 1/2 and 2/5 at the room you play at. I was under the impression 2/5 was going to be a joke just like 1/2 (and maybe it is at other poker rooms), but I would be prepared for a steep learning curve.

240 hours logged at 2/5 now and my win-rate has just recently moved past my 1/2 hourly. My goal for 2016 is going to be a $50+/hr at 2/5 and be playing 5/T or 10/10 once a week if the game is good.

tldr

1) Experience is invaluable at 1/2

2) 1/3 is a great transition game and I would make that your primary game

3) 2/5 is tough. Your hourly will likely suffer and you will experience some massive swings that make you question whether it's all worth it -- but it is
Thanks for the advice man, I think I'm going to start playing mostly 1/3 with the occasional 2/5 shot since my BR is right @ 10k right now and I feel like my game has been really solid recently, and see how that goes. When you took your initial 2/5 shots did you buy in for $1k? or did you start off less.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 06:03 PM   #11909
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zuneit
I could still make my 'monthly nut' as it's not the primary source of my income & I'm probably close to being 'over-rolled' for 1/2 NL in the games I play in. However, what it would do to my WR would send me str8 to the doc for some anti-depressants!
Quote:
Originally Posted by RelentlessDoubt View Post
Your win rate has zero effect on your future results, I don't know why you would be concerned about it moving forward, especially over a small sample size. Everyone is going to lose. You will get AA ten times and get it cracked each time...why play if losing five buyins will really affect you?
I was speaking in jest. Thus the emoticon. I am well versed in variance. My thread was a joke. Please advise as to how I could have made that perfectly clear. Thanks.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 06:58 PM   #11910
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
The notion of someone who's appealed to the idea of grinding 1/2 full-time should start his own business is ridiculous.
Starting a business isn't the only way to create a job.
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 07:02 PM   #11911
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Creating a job doesn't mean starting a business.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 07:11 PM   #11912
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Yep. When I get deep enough to have 10% of my BR on the table as an effective stack, it's time to get up, imo. I just can't play my A game when I'm that worried about the hit that I could take.
I was playing a 5/10 game a few weeks ago, bought in for 1k and got to around 3k or so. Some very loose aggro player opens MP, another crazy guy who I have a decent amount of history with calls from the CO, I 3bet to 240 from the BTN, both call.

Flop comes 45t
Check check, I bet 375 expecting two quick folds

MP opener folds, CO crazy villian who constantly tries to bluff me check raises me to 2k and had me covered. Hes completely capable of having sets, all the 2pair combos, open enders, any flush draw, sometimes even complete air because he knows my range is capped to an overpair and I likely won't risk so much with it, and sometimes might even turn AT into a bluff. It was an obvious shove spot from an EV standpoint.

But I couldn't just rip in 3k, it was too much money and if I lost it all I wouldn't be able to take another shot at 5/10 for a few weeks. Anyway, I think the impact of me losing 3k is much bigger then winning an additional 3k at the time, so I'm not too upset.

Looking back though, it was such a terrible fold and if I'm not willing to put in my stack in that spot then I should have just gotten up once I was deep.

It really just depends on the game, I've since played even deeper but there weren't any players who were willing to make massive 300bb plays against me so it wasn't much of an issue.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-29-2015, 07:18 PM   #11913
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Creating a job doesn't mean starting a business.
+1
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 12:51 AM   #11914
letzplayHU
journeyman
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So far this year I'm at $25 an hour over 613 hours, with ~85% of the play at $1/2, and the rest being 2/5. I've been playing mixed hours, with most of my playing being at relatively ideal times, 9:00 pm to early morning.

How much do you think my WR will drop if I play only during the day, with the last action being around 10-11 pm?

Let's assume I am actually a $25 hr/winner. How much could I expect my WR to drop? 40%? 60%? 80%? Become a loser?

During the day time, it's mostly tighter players who are pretty straight forward postflop, and the loose idiots are more uncommon.

Regardless, I'm going to run the experiment for at least one month in december, I'll be starting a PG&C thread about it. ( The Old Man Coffee Crushing Challenge ).

The reason for it that I'm tired of killing myself. Getting a few hours of sleep then off to the part-time job. I've probably given away 10-15k playing tired, this year alone! Also my monthly spending would make most people vomit, when tired I buy $100 of expensive unhealthy food, large gourmet pizzas, kombuchas($4 a bottle here in florida), gluten free treats & gourmet chocolet bars...

When I'm operating on no sleep, I basically want to kill myself. It ****ing sucks bros and ladies

Last edited by letzplayHU; 11-30-2015 at 01:00 AM.
letzplayHU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 01:29 AM   #11915
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1 month is a pretty meaningless sample size.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 01:35 AM   #11916
letzplayHU
journeyman
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's enough to give me a feel. A feel for whether or not I can make money from these types of opponents. It only took me a few dozen hours of playing at ideal times two years ago to realize these players will give their money away if you put in the time and effort, and now almost 1500 hours later I have pretty solid evidence of my initial feel.
letzplayHU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 02:48 AM   #11917
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2 years after the feel, you're still playing 1/2 in Florida.

You have me convinced.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 04:24 AM   #11918
greedisgood1
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: belgium
Posts: 448
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I bought 25k of GPRO at $25 thinking all the bad news was baked in. Market has been hammering the stock last 2-3 months so it looks like I'll be holding initials a spike.

What were your reasons to buy gopro? I saw the stock getting battered but it wasn't on my Watclist untill last Week.
greedisgood1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 04:37 AM   #11919
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by letzplayHU View Post
Since you can't add anything to the discussion, like your experience with day time vs night crowd and how to exploit the former or latter, can you just not post? Do you even play poker in any serious frequency?

I should offer that experience to you because?

And I was trying to help you by telling you that 1 month sample size is meaningless, but clearly you think it isn't because you have hard evidence to prove it.

Then I tell you that you actually don't, because you are still playing 1/2 in a state known for its profitable games.

If someone tells me that the world isn't flat with compelling evidence, I would that think he's trying to help me.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 04:43 AM   #11920
kookiemonster
old hand
 
kookiemonster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: where the milk and honey flows
Posts: 1,653
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Day games just absolutely suck. Primo games here are found between 3 and 8am.
kookiemonster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 04:44 AM   #11921
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's wrong with playing 1/2?
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 04:57 AM   #11922
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ I believe the list is:

1) Mother Teresa
2) Nelson Mandela
.
.
.
14,565) Bookies
.
.
.
198,223) Kidnappers
198,224) People on death row
198,225) 1/2 players
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 05:16 AM   #11923
letzplayHU
journeyman
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You gotta build up. Playing only part-time + major living expenses, and also also getting good at poker, takes time. Do you think anyone in Florida whose worth their salt should be at 5/T two years after starting poker because they have half a brain? I'm also a BR nit and didn't start playing 2/5 until I had BR that most people would use to take 5/T shots with.

Sneaky Pete, when you get to a table, do you require 2000 hours with each opponent before you decide whether you have an edge against them, no, you probably know where you stand against each opponent at the table within a few hours, at least a ball park estimate.

To answet ur question, to be helpful if thats ur intention, which it sounds like u want to be, but then you dont. Dont understand that contradiction.

Last edited by letzplayHU; 11-30-2015 at 05:28 AM.
letzplayHU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 05:42 AM   #11924
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You sound like you have it all figured out, so why are you asking those questions?
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2015, 06:03 AM   #11925
Kler
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 459
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by letzplayHU View Post
How much do you think my WR will drop if I play only during the day, with the last action being around 10-11 pm?

Let's assume I am actually a $25 hr/winner. How much could I expect my WR to drop? 40%? 60%? 80%? Become a loser?
No one can offer any reasonable answer to this question. You haven't offered any indication of what your actual winrate is at 1/2, no one knows how good you play, no one knows how good your opponents play.

Just go figure it out, see how it goes.
Kler is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive